Happy Groundhog Day!
Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, saw his shadow which means six more weeks of winter. Six more weeks of what we have seen already! We are into the second day of February and the unseasonably mild weather continues. It will warm back up into the middle 60s this afternoon with increasing high clouds ahead of a strange storm system and I will go into the details of this storm below. Let’s begin with the January statistics:
It was the fifth driest January on record. February will obviously be much wetter as a slow moving storm system is approaching us right now. Last night, on NBC Action News, I showed this graphic with the model solutions and their rainfall forecasts:
We are forecasting between one and two inches of rain, with a few spots getting more than two inches, and possibly a few getting a bit less than one inch. The computer models have yet to settle in on a likely track and evolution of this storm that is just now beginning to spin over the four corners states. The evolution of this storm and the overall pattern will be a very complex process. A high over low block is trying to form as this storm moves our way and this will help slow the storm down as it drifts into Kansas and then moves slowly our way. Bands of precipitation will be developing around this storm soon. Our first chance of any rain will arrive well after midnight and more likely around sunrise on Friday. The leading edge and first band of precipitation may include a few heavy thunderstorms.
There is an unusual supply of warm moist air for this storm system to tap and you can see this on the dew point forecast map valid Friday morning:
This map, above, shows the wide open Gulf of Mexico with a surge of high February dew points into Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This will be a tremendous moisture source for this approaching storm to tap, and it has to result in a tremendous amount of rain and snow. Some flooding is possible in our region. The new NAM model has 2 inches of rain already predicted by 6 PM Friday and the storm is still closing off and drifting into western Kansas at that time. This is going to be a very wet storm and we will have our updated rainfall forecast on NBC Action News today and tonight.
A blizzard will also be developing across eastern Colorado and western Kansas on Friday afternoon and evening. The winter part of this storm will be drifting east and south and we will monitor this part of the storm closely as well. Traveling west into Colorado will be almost impossibly by Friday afternoon. This storm could still produce snow in our viewing area but we are going to be on the southern edge. The upper low just needs to track south of Kansas City and it would snow here, but right now it appears it is going to track just north of us closer to the Iowa/Nebraska borders. It is something to track, but as this snowless season goes on and on we are likely about to miss this latest chance and not by that much. As I discussed in a blog entry earlier in the week, it fits the LRC for this upper level low to be in Missouri and I am still expecting it to make it into Missouri which will take the rain/snow line into our viewing area. We will discuss this on our weathercasts tonight as well.
Have a great day. I will try to have an updated blog entry by this evening.
Gary
we are so close to snow but I”l take the moisture.
Yahoo makes note of the snowless winter:
“http://news.yahoo.com/wheres-snow-not-lower-48-elsewhere-230700692.html”
It mentions that the AO went negative but the NAO stayed positive they usually are in sync.
Is there anyway you could make a snowfall map on the blog? Or just give me your idea for snow totals in the Lincoln area. It would be much appreciated. Thank You for the blog.
I may try to make one in an updated blog later today. Lincoln may be right on the line between rain and snow for a while.
I’m in the Omaha/Lincoln area and would appreciate that as well if you get a chance Gary.
“http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
latest NAM snow map
What are the chances the storm could move even further south?
Not likely. There may be snowflakes on the back edge unless I missed something. Once again it is not arctic air, just cooler air that the system is dealing with.
Gary make the 60s come back next week please.
Well the latest NAM is wet, and if you took it at face value it would suggest at least some snowflakes, and for this winter that’s saying something. That storm does look funny, it almost gets itself into a “Rex block” configuration with an upper high directly to its north.
I’m sure there’ll be snow eventually; Punsutawney Phil saw his shadow and t hat means six more weeks of winter. Though I’m kind of dissapointing, it really smells like spring outside this morning.
That,s only for Pennsylvania. My groundhog first saw a 12 gauge Shotgun at my resident,now it see,s no more!So, 6 more weeks of uncertainty. Have a GREAT DAY,,,Kevin
That’s not true, they guarantee his forecast will be correct:
Johnston said the reason is simple: “He’s never been wrong.” Phil is “incapable of error,” he said, because the groundhog smartly avoids being site-specific in his prognostications.
If Phil predicts six more weeks of winter, said Johnston, “I guarantee you someone’s going to have six more weeks of winter.”
Johnston is in a “INNER CIRCLE”,that certainly,He can,t get-out of. In conclusion, he,s not speaking for the rest of us who are NOT in the INNER CIRCLE.
“Dog”Chaser, your comment reminds me of the Star Trek TNG episode where one of the characters (I’m old and can’t remember) gets stuck in a warp bubble (as I recall) and it is collapsing. This poor character thinks her (It may have been Crusher) reality is the real world, while all along the bubble is closing in on her. She eventually figures it out and leaves the bubble through a tear, coming back to reality. Will you?
Anyone who watch,s STAR TREK,and still remembers all the episodes,and quote segments,needs a reality check. P.s. You must be very popular with your words of wisdom.
“Dog”Chaster, it’s all perfectly logical to you, isn’t it? There’s nothing wrong with you, it is the Universe you are in! Step into the vortex, out of the bubble, and back into reality… before it is too late!
He’s right, Winter will continue, in Alaska
5th Driest January on record…was it also in the top five for warmest on record? Did I read right somewhere that we got 15 days above 50 degrees? Thanks for help in this…
So in KC we have at this point:
Top five driest Januaries – YES
Top five least snow winters- so far
Top five latest snow winters- so far
Top five warmest winters?
Just trying to get some facts straight before I relay to students….They are so young they think this is normal! I want them to know this isn’t even close to normal.
Any almanac/data bank websites where I can look up weather for a given area on any day in the past? Or query monthly totals for a given year?
This is the least snowiest winter ever at this point. And, this came after the past two winters were in the top five snowiest.
Gary
OK this is very helpful. I will show the kids your reply! They will love seeing it!
Two good places to look for past data:
the local NWS site has a climate tab. I just google NWS EAX to get to the main page.
“wunderground.com” has a “calendar view” feature for past data which is really helpful.
Thanks R-Dub much appreciated!
Any signs that we could get some legit winter storms?
Ugh! I know we need the rain, but not looking forward to the potential for another flooded basement… will hope it doesn’t rain too hard or too long… sigh…
Hey, have a blog technical issue: the mobile version of the blog wasn’t letting me log on this morning and last night. It wasn’t rejecting my name or password, it wasn’t even giving me the option to log on. I’m on an Android phone btw.
I had the same problem.
Won’t let me log on either mobile, iPhone here.
It was doing that to me yesterday too, but it’s working for me today… I have an iPhone though, not sure of that makes a difference. Gary, in your honest opinion do you think we’ll see much more than a snowflake on the backside of this storm as its moving east of us?
Gary….my allergies are through the roof today. One of the worst attacks I’ve had in a long time. Help…
Looks like both 12z NAM & 12z GFS bring snow further south.
NAM – “wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
GFS – “wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”
I’ll check back in later this afternoon when I get done playing golf.
Seriously.
And even the NAM’s wishcast wouldn’t end the snowflake contest. The placement of the serious snow has been pretty consistent, up along I-80.
wish I could play golf today!
No chance in hell of us getting any snowfall. Jabronis Keep wishing. I’m gonna go enjoy this beautiful day. might hit 69 lolz
lol
Hmmm … no chance in hell of ANY snowfall? Does that mean no snowflakes whatsoever?
And what is a Jabroni?
There’s a pic of you next to the definition. Look up Duane Johnson.
There was a lot of hype about this storm, back and forth daily much like all other approaching storms.Over 2 weeks ago the models showed a good soaking rain around the first of Feb. Words like challenging, tricky, delicate, difficult, nasty, problematic, touchy and tough come to mind in describing the forecast. One of these days were going to get a plain old “predictable” storm roll through, ahh, much like this one! As far as this top 5 driest winter following 2 top 5 wettest seasons, it’s no mystery folks, its called the law of averages.
GFS & NAM lookes like there could be SOME snow MAYBE for the metro 1-70 north. 1” it looks like. Do you think we will see any snow in KC metro area? Topeka NWS forecast map is saying light snowfall amounts. Lawrence has a 50% of rain & snow saturday and a 40% of snow saturday night. I think we will see a little change over on saturday but nothing much. WOW! 8 to 16inches of snow in Goodland,KS AREA and Westren CO and Southren Nebraksa!
Anyone know of an app that will show you the different model runs? Probably not out there but worth asking.. Paid $9.99 for this radarscope app and it’s pretty nice. Wouldn’t mind paying that much for a model app
Even if ANY snow fell on us it would just melt. Its been way to warm for so many days.
Farmers almanac prediction for saturday.
4th-7th. Potent Pacific disturbance pushes heavy snow (12+”) across Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri. Light snow or scattered flurries farther north.
Gary, is there any chance that the storm could shift so much to give us a foot of snow?
It has finally gotten to the point to where everyone has pretty much given up on this winter. So, to remind us that this is still Missouri, this storm might decide to drop a couple of inches of snow.
Given up on it? I’m enjoying the hell out of it!
Keep on wishcasting snow freaks! You will eventually be correct once. Trending south…how many in a trend freaks? Drive to Nebraska and park your butt tonight. You’ll see the snow you’re wishcasting for. Even Gary is showing 14 flakes on the backside. Somehow, champs, I’ll bet you think it’s an inch or more.
What is wrong with you? Why do you feel the need to personally attack people?
His username is Theo. He thinks he is God.
You don’t really need an app for model runs – just make a link on your phone to “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller” – works perfect on my Galaxy S
IN all reality, climalogically speaking, there is a chance of a snowflake on any day between December and March. GFS and NAM don’t really help us out much there.
Snow has begun here in Denver. I headed down from the mountains to my family’s home near Boulder to enjoy the storm tonight. The latest for our locale is 16-24″ with significant drifting and blizzard conditions. I’ll keep you posted from Colorado…Mike Nelson (our Gary) is saying it could be one of the biggest in Denver’s history!
Lucky you. Enjoy!
If you are tracking this storm,the radar in Pleasant Hill is offline for awhile so use the Topeka radar, or the radar at KCI Airport. I have a live image on my website if anyone wants to view the KCI radar. http://www.freewebs.com/theweatherpage/
Why would you even hint at snow accumlation being a possibility?
Air temperatures have been in the 50s and 60s the last 3 days. Ground temperatures are probably in the mid 40s right now. With 2 days of rain the ground will be soaked.
Warm ground temperatures = hard to get snow to accumulate.
Saturated ground surface = hard to get snow to accumulate.
Temperatures hovering at freezing = hard to get snow to accumulate.
It doesn’t matter how fast in furious the snow falls – it’s not going to stick. 3 things working against it – would have to come down at 3″ an hour to overcome the above hurdles. That’s just not going to happen.
Don’t fool yourselves with wishcasting people.
Was that big rain storm back around Aug 18th part of this 47 day cycle? I remember high temps were in the low/mid 50s! And here we are in late Jan/early Feb with highs in the mid 60s!
Stop wishcasting that it will never snow again, last time we have a dusting it had been in the 50-60s the days before and people told me it wouldn’t stick but it did. Also at the beginning of the winter Gary showed a picture after it snow and it accumulated even when everyone on the blog said it wouldn’t. Don’t underestimate the power of nature and Midwest weather.