Good morning bloggers,

With our spring forecast coming out on Monday night we would like to ask you to make your own predictions.  Let us know what you think and try to answer the following two questions:

The models are suddenly consistent in producing the conditions favorable for a snowstorm in less than a week.  This part of the LRC does support a storm, but in previous cycles we did NOT have enough cold air in place.  I will discuss this a bit more as it gets a little closer, and . . . → Read More: Is it a fantasy snowstorm, or is there really a chance?]]> Good evening bloggers,

The models are suddenly consistent in producing the conditions favorable for a snowstorm in less than a week.  This part of the LRC does support a storm, but in previous cycles we did NOT have enough cold air in place.  I will discuss this a bit more as it gets a little closer, and if it continues to show up. Right now, most models have a cold front moving through by Sunday night and a storm approaching by Tuesday morning.  The latest GFS predicts about a foot of snow. Is this possible? What do you think? I will be discussing this possibility on 41 Action News tonight.

First model prediction from the GFS model:

• 7 Days out…….29 degrees and 1 foot of snow

We are currently sitting at an all time record low seasonal snowfall total of 3.1″ at KCI Airport.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

We had thunder, lightning, some small hail, a few snowflakes, and heavy rain yesterday evening.  The weather has calmed down this morning with a two day warming trend beginning this afternoon before our next cold front arrives early Thursday morning. . . . → Read More: Drying out & warming up!]]> Our Spring Forecast Comes Out Next Monday Night at 10 PM on 41 Action News!

Good morning bloggers,

We had thunder, lightning, some small hail, a few snowflakes, and heavy rain yesterday evening.  The weather has calmed down this morning with a two day warming trend beginning this afternoon before our next cold front arrives early Thursday morning.  Take a look at the water-vapor satellite picture from just after midnight last night:

This storm has already zipped way off to the northeast this morning leaving behind a dry and mild air mass that should warm up into the 60s on Wednesday.

I waited to finish the blog entry this morning as I wanted to see the GFS model past five days.  The past six to seven model runs have had a more winter look to them with the exception of last nights 00z model run which was warmer and dry.  Let’s see if this trend continues. We will be going into the two to three week part of the LRC that is most capable of producing winter storm systems between next week and the first half of March.  Which way will it go? The latest GFS model has a snowstorm predicted for one week from today. It is rather small scale and confidence is very low that this will look even close to the way it does on this model run. We should have a very good idea within two days on where this is heading.

Have a great Tuesday! I will open up this discussion on our weathercasts tonight on 41 Action News.

Gary

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6:40 PM update:

A band of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is moving in this evening. Here is Live ESP Radar at 6:40 PM:

Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

Our first and only snowstorm, if we can call it that, came through one week ago this morning.  A week . . . → Read More: A storm system is heading our way…..Update!]]> Watch 41 Action News for Kansas City’s Most Accurate Forecast!

6:40 PM update:

A band of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is moving in this evening. Here is Live ESP Radar at 6:40 PM:

Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

Our first and only snowstorm, if we can call it that, came through one week ago this morning.  A week later another storm is heading our way and will impact our weather today and tonight but with just a couple of bands of showers. It will be a breezy and mild winter day.

The weather pattern is going through some changes this week and we are likely about to go on the wildest ride of temperature swings of the season between now and the first half of March. We will likely be on a roller-coaster ride of temperatures with warm-ups into the 60s and stronger cold fronts blasting us down into the 20s or 30s for highs in the next three weeks. Click on the LRC Weather Blog for more details on this weather pattern and more information on the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Winter Mystery that continues to affect most of the nation.  One week from  tonight we will be having a special segment with our Spring Forecast at 10 PM on 41 Action News.

This storm approaching today is providing a unique set-up that fits this nearly snowless season.  A cold and strengthening upper level storm aloft will move almost directly overhead after sunset.  The 1,000 to 500 mb thickness will drop below 540 dm (5,400 meters) but there is no chance of snow at all with this storm system in our area.  In any other year this type of storm would easily produce a few inches of snow as it passes, but not in the winter of 2011-2012.  There will likely be two bands of showers moving through by 10 PM tonight. The first band of rain is expected early this afternoon and the second, and heavier band that may include a few thunderstorms, will develop over eastern Kansas and intensify near the state line just after sunset as the center of the upper level storm approaches.  This second band of showers will move very quickly and in about four hours it will likely get from Kansas City all the way to St. Louis.

This map shows a forecast for where precipitation will be located and the type.  Blue is snow, and green is rain.  Let’s see how this evolves today and we will update the blog as this main band of precipitation forms this evening.

Have a great President’s Day!

Gary

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I hope all’s well with you.  Today looks great and near 50° with barely any wind.  It’s yet another day above average.  I crunched the numbers using national weather service’s climate data:

We’re nearly 5° warmer than average so far this Meteorological Winter…Since Dec. 1.  Remember how cold last winter was?  The end result of . . . → Read More: Boring Gorgeous Day]]> Good morning bloggers!

I hope all’s well with you.  Today looks great and near 50° with barely any wind.  It’s yet another day above average.  I crunched the numbers using national weather service’s climate data:

We’re nearly 5° warmer than average so far this Meteorological Winter…Since Dec. 1.  Remember how cold last winter was?  The end result of Dec/Jan/Feb 2010/2011 was 3.2° colder than average.

One more thing, we’re expecting the next 5 days to be near or above 50° before a potential for a cold shot of air.  The main story, though, is Monday’s rain:

As the surface low approaches KC from the west on Monday, winds pick up…approaching 30mph from the south.  That’ll warm things into the 50s despite mainly cloudy skies.  Any heavy snow will be well north of KC.

The best chance for rain Monday will be after 2pm in KC.  Most of the 0.1″ to 0.3″ of rain forecast for KC should fall between 4-10pm.  This is a rain and not snow event for us.  Wet roadways become likely for late afternoon and evening drives.

 A cold front will actually pass after midnight Monday as rain ends, with the main impact a shift in wind direction.

Winds at the surface will gust from the northwest most of the week.  It’ll be a windy week.  Aloft the winds will be from the WNW.  The main flow coming off the rockies.  This “downslope flow” and the resulting compressional heating will yield warmer than average 50s most of the week. 

We’ll see if GFS is onto something with it’s big cold blast for Friday.  Right now I have a forecast high of 39 for Friday as our big cooldown.

Thanks for checking us out…have a great day!

-GW

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All’s quiet in KC this weekend, but not in Louisiana!  I’m not talking about the revelry in the days before Mardis Gras, but a tornado watch is in effect through 3pm for New Orleans.

As of 10:40 this morning, tornado warnings were in effect in the areas around Baron Rouge.  I had already noticed a . . . → Read More: It’s Saturday]]> Good morning bloggers!

All’s quiet in KC this weekend, but not in Louisiana!  I’m not talking about the revelry in the days before Mardis Gras, but a tornado watch is in effect through 3pm for New Orleans.

As of 10:40 this morning, tornado warnings were in effect in the areas around Baron Rouge.  I had already noticed a couple tornado reports at this time including a suspicious report on the SPC website (witness reports floors shaking and heard “freight train” like sound) and another unnoficial report by law enforcement of a funnel cloud.

We’ll wait until Monday for our next storm system to impact KC.  It looks like a rain event for us.  Currently, an upper level trough/developing low will be create snowfall in the Mountains of Washington State that may total 2′.  Several disturbances wrapping around that trough will approach the Plains for Monday. 

At the surface, we’ll have a low pressure system that’ll track just north of KC Monday night.

GFS model forecasts rain for the KC area, with most of the precip. falling before midnight…before the coldest air arrives on the back side.  Temperatures may be in the 50s then 40s in KC for most of the precipitation event.  Farther north, near Sioux City, rain-snow-ice will be possible.  Even farther north, a band of over 4″ of snow may fall for northern South Dakota, North Dakota, NW Minnesota.

Below is the forecast by GFS model for temperatures at 850 mb…just under 5000′ above sea level.  3 degrees Celcius aloft, and the 40s near ground level indicates falling precipitation would not be frozen at midnight for KC. 

Can snowflakes mix in toward the end of any rain in KC?  There is an outside chance.  If precipitation can linger toward Tuesday morning and if we get colder than expected, a few snowflakes could fall on the tail end of this…but I’m not banking on it.  What’s more, even if colder than expected, temperatures would still likely remain above freezing Tuesday morning indicating if any snowflakes could fall,they’d quickly melt.

We’ll take another look tonight at 5/6/10.  NAM forecast model indicates a band of 1″ of rain may be possible locally, but I’m leaning more toward several tenths of an inch for my forecast…most falling Monday evening.

Have a good weekend!

-gW

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Friday poll question:  Do you think we will set the all time lowest seasonal snow total?

We need one and a half more inches of snow to go above the lowest seasonal total of 4.5″ that fell during the winter of 1922-23.  There is a shift in the pattern next week.

The weather pattern continues . . . → Read More: A nice Friday with a change showing up next week]]> Good morning, It’s FRIDAY!

Friday poll question:  Do you think we will set the all time lowest seasonal snow total?

We need one and a half more inches of snow to go above the lowest seasonal total of 4.5″ that fell during the winter of 1922-23.  There is a shift in the pattern next week.

The weather pattern continues to be rather complex and it is cycling at somewhere between 45 and 55 days this season.  We have talked about the mystery middle stream of the jet stream sand it can be seen on this map first map this morning by looking at the two lines north of the dashed trough that I plotted out this morning. This map shows the 500 mb forecast valid at midnight Monday night.  A deepening upper level trough will have to be monitored closely on how it evolves as it will have an impact on our region early next week.  There will be a cold front and potentially some precipitation Monday into Tuesday as this swings by.  Let’s see how this looks on the new data over the weekend.

After this storm moves by something more significant happens to the weather pattern later next week. Take a look a this next forecast map:

You can click on either of these maps for a larger view. This next forecast map is also the 500 mb flow (around 18,000 feet up) valid one week from tonight at midnight early next Saturday morning.  If the weather pattern would block up at all we could end up with a major winter storm later next weekend, but as I am pointing to with the far right arrow there is no blocking developing at all over North America.  This model run of the GFS, and every other model I looked at as well, show just a Polar Vortex developing over Canada and a lot of wide open flow around it.  This is what has been going on all season in our part of the Northern Hemisphere.  When it has turned cold, and this has the potential to bring some very cold air down into the United States, there has been a lack of an organized storm in our region. Now, once the cold air retreats more organized storm systems develop and this overnight model run was no different.

Have a great Friday!  Let us know if you have any questions or comments and we will check back in later today.  It’s 192 hours from this weather pattern evolving, and it’s 192 hours from the big MU/KU game in Lawrence!

Gary

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After our first inch of snow on Monday morning and a few, mostly light, rain showers Wednesday it is going to dry out for a little while.  The sunshine will be returning today.  The snow melted fast and in two days it is gone.  The National Weather Service (NWS) posted this map showing the . . . → Read More: Drying out for a while]]> Good morning bloggers,

After our first inch of snow on Monday morning and a few, mostly light, rain showers Wednesday it is going to dry out for a little while.  The sunshine will be returning today.  The snow melted fast and in two days it is gone.  The National Weather Service (NWS) posted this map showing the snowfall totals from our biggest snow of the season.  You can click on the image for a larger view:

Jeff Penner and I went to the KC Chapter of the AMS (American Meteorological Society) meeting last night where two meteorlogists from the Springfield NWS office did a presenation on the Joplin tornado.  It was a really nice presentation of how the Joplin tornado formed and how the NWS responded to the horrific devastation.  The tornadic supercell that produced the EF-5 tornado had interaction with it’s environment from a second developing supercell merging from the south, possible outflow boundaries from other thunderstorms, and a surface set-up that evolved during the day creating the ideal conditions for this very bad hour.

The weather pattern is calming down and according to the LRC it should be rather dry with one or two significant warming trends in the next ten days to two weeks.  I am expecting a warming trend up to near 70 degrees before the end of the month. The more active part of the pattern with a potential cold outbreak from northern Canada will be due in near the end of the month or into the first week of March. We are still 1.4″ of snow below that record lowest seasonal total in Kansas City’s history (4.5″ in the winter of 1922-23).  And, as the days are getting longer we still have the chance of setting the record for the lowest seasonal total in KC recorded history.

Have a great Thursday!

Gary

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There is a fast moving and small scale storm moving into Kansas this morning.  Take a look at this 500 mb forecast map from the GFS model valid at 3 PM this afternoon:

This is really a small feature and it is struggling to produce any rain so far this morning.  As this forecast map . . . → Read More: A small storm may clip us this afternoon & evening]]> Good morning bloggers,

There is a fast moving and small scale storm moving into Kansas this morning.  Take a look at this 500 mb forecast map from the GFS model valid at 3 PM this afternoon:

This is really a small feature and it is struggling to produce any rain so far this morning.  As this forecast map verifies this afternoon Kansas City will briefly be going into diffluent south to southwest flow aloft.  This should help provide enough lifting for shower and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop and move northeast.  Showers will likely affect most of the viewing area today, but the most likely areas to be affected by the heaviest showers and thunderstorms will be south and east of I-35.  This upper level storm is forecast to weaken and increase it’s forward speed as it zips into Missouri and rapidly moves into Illinois as it is falling apart later tonight.  It will be moving into Ohio by tomorrow morning.  This will provide just a small window of opportunity to produce any rain later today into this evening as it moves by.

This next map shows the rainfall forecast ending at midnight:

This rainfall forecast shows around 0.50″ near the state line just south and east of downtown Kansas City.  The dark green indicates 0.25″ to 0.50″.  The dark blue shows the 0.50″ to 0.75″ area with the bright blue indicating more than 0.75″.  This may be our last chance of significant precipitation for a week or so until later in the month. There will be other systems to track, and one next week will have a chance of a fast moving band of precipitation, but confidence is low on this next storm at the moment and it will likely be a fast moving one that has little chance at more than a tenth of an inch. It would likely zip by around Monday. I am not expecting that early week storm to be very significant at all.  Let’s see what happens with this one today.

The latest data has this system just barely strong enough to create some rising motion over our area as we move through the day. It is a compact and small scale system tracking across southern Kansas later this evening.  This will produce scattered showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. The system will be past us by around 10 PM tonight.

Have a great day!

Gary

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Was this first inch of snow just a fluke in a winter season that has been a mystery? An Arctic air mass arrived over the weekend and the low temperature was 5 degrees both Saturday and Sunday morning. And, then we had a very small snowstorm that produced wide spread very small snowfall amounts. . . . → Read More: Snowflake Contest Winner Surprised]]> Good morning bloggers,

Was this first inch of snow just a fluke in a winter season that has been a mystery? An Arctic air mass arrived over the weekend and the low temperature was 5 degrees both Saturday and Sunday morning. And, then we had a very small snowstorm that produced wide spread very small snowfall amounts. This snow event was just as strange as the rest of the season as we had wide spread snowfall accumulations from west Texas, across northern Oklahoma, into Kansas, southern Nebraska, extending east across Missouri to Illinois and Indiana, and yet the entire area didn’t have a 4 inch snowfall total. I don’t think I have ever seen such a thing.  At least it was enough to end the snowflake contest.

Congratulations to LaToya Fraser (Lenexa). She picked February 13th at 1:45 AM, which is exactly when the first snowflakes started falling in the KC metro area. The first inch finally accumulated at 5:26 AM. We surprised her yesterday:

• Winner (Grand Prize):  LaToya Fraser (Lenexa, KS)….February 13th 1:45 AM (Missed by 3 hours and 41 minutes)
• 2nd Place winner:  Shirley Morrison (Cameron, MO)….February 10th 5:10 PM (Missed by 60 hours 16 minutes)
• 3rd place:  Jeanne Schweisberger (Cameron, MO)….February 16th 3:02 AM (Missed by 69 hours 36 minutes)
• 4th place:  Frank Bagley (Shawnee, KS)….February 10th 6:20 AM (Missed by 71 hours 54 minutes)

A low pressure area will be developing over Oklahoma and Gulf of Mexico air will be surging north into the Sooner state by later tonight.  A warm front will be setting up (the red line) over northern Oklahoma. Conditions will be quite favorable for thunderstorms to form in the colder air north of the warm front with some potential for hail over southern Kansas. Thunderstorms could arrive just after sunrise in our local area tomorrow, but the most likely area to experience these thunderstorms is likely going to be south of I-70. Heavy downpours and some possible small hail will be associated with any of the thunderstorms as they move across tomorrow.  This is the kind of storm that would produce very heavy snow as it passes by, in any other winter but this one.  It just isn’t cold enough which is just shocking when you think it was five degrees Saturday and Sunday morning.

We will have more details on this developing storm on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

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