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Heat Wave will grow stronger….July 19, 2011

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Good morning everyone,

We are now in our second heat wave of the summer. The first one lasted three days:

KCI Airport High Temperatures, followed by New Century Airport High Temperatures:

  • July 10th:  KCI:  96°   New Century: 102°
  • July 11th:  KCI:  96°    New Century: 101°
  • July 12th:  KCI:  97°   New Century: 100°
  • July 13th:  KCI:  84°   New Century:  88°
  • July 14th:  KCI:  89°   New Century:  93°
  • July 15th:  KCI:  93°   New Century:  97°
  • July 16th:  KCI:  93°   New Century:  99°
  • July 17th:  KCI:  95°   New Century:  99°
  • July 18th:  KCI:  95°   New Century:  99°

Our definition of a heat wave is at least three consecutive days with high temperatures of 95° or higher.  KCI Airport is the official recording station for the Kansas City metro area and at this location there was a small heat wave from the 10th – 12th. And, today will be our third day in a row with 95°+ heat at KCI.  The problem is that this is just the beginning of a rather long and strengthening heat wave.  Other locations have been hotter within the metro area as you can also see above at New Century Airport in Gardner, KS.  It has been much worse just to our southwest. Oklahoma City has been 100° or higher every day this month with the exception of July 12th when it was 98° just before they had 2.91″ of rain, their only day with rain this month. Dallas, TX has been 100 degrees every day this month except for the 1st of July.  Topeka and Wichita have had many 100 degree days as well.  Weak cold fronts have made it through Kansas City this summer. Will the next couple of fronts make it here or not. It is something we will go over tonight on our weathercasts on NBC Action News.  Here is a graphic we made yesterday showing two possible cool downs.  A weak front will stall north of us Thursday, and then a slightly stronger one may drop into Kansas and Missouri onew week from now. And, then the likely stronger one around the first week of August.

The heat wave may get a brief break between now and August 1st, but a real ending to this very hot weather pattern may not arrive until early August when confidence is high that the part of the cycling weather pattern that brought the Tuskaloosa Alabama tornado and massive tornado outbreak returns in it’s late summer form. For more on this likely change go to the LRC weather blog by clicking here:  LRC Weather Blog

Have a great day!

Gary

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36 comments to Heat Wave will grow stronger….July 19, 2011

  • thundercolt

    Worked outside all day yesterday frequent breaks and a lot of water but still dead tired last night. Does the high pressure over us weigh us down a bit or is it just the heat wave dragging us outside construction workers down??

  • OlatheMatt

    “but a real ending to this very hot weather pattern may not arrive until early August when confidence is high that the part of the cycling weather pattern that brought the Tuskaloosa Alabama tornado and massive tornado outbreak returns in it’s late summer form.”

    That sounds very interesting. Wonder how that will all play out.

  • Nick1

    @ thundercolt The high pressure aloft actually doesn’t mean extremely high pressure at the surface, when they talk about “high pressure” aloft it is because warmer air molecules spread apart and since they cant go “down” into the ground they push the denser lower atmosphere air up to higher altitudes leading to denser air aloft with higher pressure. That is why the upper level highs have “higher hights” as the “center of the atmopshere in terms of wieght is pushed upward. Well I hope that makes sense, and if I am off base I’m sure I will be corrected;)

    • thundercolt

      thanks Nick

    • Nick,

      It isn’t high pressure aloft, but rather high heights aloft. The 500 mb pressure level is higher up when we have a system like this anticyclone. Near the surface there is often lower pressures underneath these high heights aloft. The desert southweat often has a thermal low caused by the tremendous heat.

  • thundercolt

    I remember that Thermal low when I use to live out there. We did a bunch of work down in the desert, near Blyth, Ca. and in Death Valley, Ca. back when Dryvit(outside foam outsulation stucco system) was real popular in the late eighties. Always looked to the mountains for any sign of a cumulonimbus cloud, and maybe a chance the storms would make it down to the valley’s. I guess the rising and sinking air near them made those clouds form, but that Thermal Low always helped out.

  • mukustink

    Gary yesterday we just barely made 95. For a total of 11 minutes it was 95. With the water levels the way they are as you stated in previous blog comments is it going to be that close today as well you think? I noticed that a lot of outlets had predicted 98 and 99 for highs and we have not hit those highs. I am assuming because of the high humididty we may struggle to get there at KCI. Tic Tock we’ll watch the clock and the thermometer.

    Looks like it will be hot for CHIEFS Training Camp as the lockout will be over by this MONDAY. YEAH

    • Yes, hot for training camp…..wow could we actually be discussing the Chiefs next week? Anyway, 95° for 11 minutes or not it was still the high. Let’s see what happens today. We are going 97. We have been within 3 degrees each day, but exactly 3. I would like to get within one or hit it on the nose today so I am rooting for 97 at KCI today.

  • So Gary, you are saying August will be cooler. I like the sound of that. I read the blog at LRC Weather and I see that cycle 6 should end around August 17. So, using your gut, would you anticipate the last couple weeks of August to be a heat wave again? Also, my family and I went up to Omaha and Sioux City this past weekend. Lots of water near Rockport, MO, but it appears that it is finally starting to go down some. Do you think this heat wave is helping with the flooding to evaporate some of it?

    • Mark,

      By the end of August the jet stream is beginning it’s slow strengthening into the fall pattern. Hopefully the cold fronts will be like in June where we will get some thunderstorms and cooler weather surges often enough to cool us off each week.

      Gary

  • mowermike

    Yep, a deal is about to be made with the NFL. Their no fools, they know how much money this sport makes. What I’m rooting for is that it gets delayed just enough so they only have 2 preseason games. That would get me a $1,322.00 refund from the Chiefs for my season ticket package.

    Day 3 of the predicted heat wave from 45 days ago. Grass is still pretty green, but drying up fast if you don’t water.

    BTW, great LRC blog yesterday. The proof is right there in the reading. It’s still amazing how after reading the proof, some people say this wasn’t predicted. Or they say that the current temps don’t add up to a heat wave. Each day they prey that KCI doesn’t hit 95 so they can feel good about Gary missing a forecast. Weird. Chalk this forecast up in the win column. Next success…..

    • Mike,

      That is just how it works. But, the heat wave has started and it appears even KCI will be very close to 100 degrees on Thursday just ahead of the weakening and stalling front.

      Gary

    • Mike this one was predicted so yes it was a win for the LRC but one win does not make something valid so lets not throw a ticker tape parade just yet. Pray not prey. Prey is something you hunt or something you stalk kind of like you stalk fill in the blank first letter is G. I thought you were a smart business person? Only a fool would give an organization that much money! They haven’t done jack squat in over 40 years! We stopped our season tickets after Carl the boob Peterson and Lamar Hunt stated that they cared more about a full stadium! During a interview that Carl Peterson gave before the feud with 810 WHB a caller said he was not renewing his tickets because of… anyway Carl the Boob said that’s ok people are waiting to take your spot. Not true by the way there was never a waiting list! Why would you support a looser? Donate the money to something usefull like a homeless shelter or a battered womans shelter instead of giving it to millonaires and billonaires!

  • Weatherman Brad

    not to be off topic here again, but gary did you hear that there was a haboob again in phoenix arizona last night. it was very small and it was from a colappsing thunderstorm that had the 40 mph outflow winds.

    if you or anyone else didn’t here about that, you heard of from weatherman brad.

    ok back on topic.

    i am glad that there is going to be a cooler august this year compared to the last few years where we had a few heat waves then, seems like to me the the heat wave creating machine will be heading to the west and the desart southweat which would make it a cooler august for kansas city. i am really looking foward to it.

    untill then i am watering by back yard really good, its getting about an inch as toby tobin always says that if it doesn’t rain get your sprinklers out and water your yard and needs to get at least 1 inch of water

  • mowermike

    Weatherman Brad

    1 inch of water a week will likely survive the yard, but most likely won’t keep it beautiful green. Your goal this time of year is to keep the roots happy, if you do that, the yard will bounce quick with heavy a heavy nitrogen fertilizer and some good natural rains come early fall. Our growing zone sucks, too many extremes from season to season.

    • nofluer

      The yard will “survive” whether you water it or not. Grasses like Kentucky Bluegrass are seasonal in nature. They are SUPPOSED to go dormant in the mid to late summer. And besides – what’s the point? You spend a crap load of money and resources to keep the grass green, and then spend time and money on gasoline and machines to cut it because it’s GROWING for God’s sake! Talk about your exercises in futility and waste! You must adapt to your environment, to your local climate, Grasshopper, for it will not adapt to you.

      Now – if you want a green lawn all summer, plant a warm season grass. Or put you some foxtail or something out there. Green all season, does not require watering, and the hotter it gets, the more you have to mow. BTW – most folks consider it a “weed”. But hey! It’s GREEN in August! Isn’t that the goal?

      • mowermike

        I have seen severe root damage to yards following extended droughts during the summer. The bounce back is not 100 % like u suggest.(may need fall renovation practices to help do so) Yes, dormant blue grass will recover with better weather conditions, but not fully if is severely damaged by disease and drought. It will likely fill back in less dense, which results in more areas of weeds and crabgrass. So, spend less on watering in the summer and more on seed in the fall?

        Plus, we live in a world of people that like things perfect no matter the weather conditions. I have over 600 clients that we service, most high end people, and when they have anything other then green, they certainly let us know about it.

        I was just suggesting the 1 inch of water on the yard to keep it in the game. So, when the good weather does return, the yard recovers much faster. When full dormant, takes weeks of cooler and wetter conditions to recover. In my world of business, it’s all about looking better then the neighbor and when things do get rough looking, how fast can my service people get it back in shape.

        That last thing I can tell a client that lives in a 2 million dollar home is, it’s ok for it to go dormant. They certainly don’t except that.

        • nofluer

          I understand your position perfectly. But I’m of a more practical bent than your typical “millionaire”. Since I don’t have million dollar homes within sight (my neighbors tend to have multi-million dollar farms with a million or two in equipment on them), or animals to eat that grass and convert it to protein, when the yard goes dormant that just means I don’t have to mow it anymore. ;-D

          And the only reason I mow it at all is to keep the ticks and mice down – (mowing grass/weeds to 3″ lowers the ground level humidity – and thus becomes a really poor environment for ticks, and 3″ grass makes mice really visible to a red tail hawk or an owl.)

  • Weatherman Brad

    http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/dustnado-forms-on-leading-edge-of-haboob-21315.

    for thoes that didn’t see it, here is a link of the haboob dust storm that produced a dustnado on the leading edge of the dust storm. you might find this very interesting but its cool

  • I am ready for cooler weather, had to go to doctor, he said just sip water/gatorade and eat soft foods, it will take a couple of days to get back to normal could also be a stomach flu going around.

    All I know is drink water lots of it, my manager said to drink alot of water before going to bed and the next day when working u will feel alot better, some military thing i guess. glad I go on vacation tomorrow!!

    • mukustink

      Andrew any time you are going to be out in heat doing physical actuvity you need to hydrate before and then drink at least a half gallon of water and or Gatorade an hour. It is best to try to mix Gatorade and water and by mix I mean drink a quart of water and a quart of Gatorade. If you go to work at 8 am you should get up at 6 eat a light breakfast nothing greasy and then start pounding the water. When you get off and get home you should continue to drink water. You will know when you are rehydrated as your urine will be clear in color. If your urine is yellow you need more fluids.

  • mukustink

    This a funny video and it is wet! Looking to try it out when we go to San Diego in the middle of August.
    “http://xfinity.comcast.net/video/jet-pack-fails-on-live-tv/2060673687″

  • mukustink

    No problem hitting 95 today looks like 97 may be a perfect hit!

  • Craig

    G-man: Your blog today kind of beat me to my question.
    As you know, there is typically a brief, 2nd severe weather season in the early autumn. Using the LRC as your guide, would you expect this year’s “2nd season” to be more active than years past and when would you expect it to arrive?

    • Craig,

      Great question! The old 2010-2011 pattern will be falling apart and the new 2011-2012 version will be evolving just as we move into the second season. So, it is really difficult to say. I would have some confidence on forecasting off the old pattern into mid-September, but this is right about the time that the jet stream becomes strong enough for a possible second season.

  • sedsinkc

    It’s quite hot here, but at least the dewpoints are not in the 82 to 84 degree range like they are currently around Minneapolis. Current temp at MSP is 93, but with a dewpoint of 82 it makes the heat index 116. At Minneapolis Flying Cloud Airport, the temp is 94 with a dewpoint of 84, HI = 122. And some think it’s bad here…

  • mukustink

    Gary the stations here are reporting dewpoints in the middle 60’s I will assume they are accurate since they are all about the same.

    The freeze frame on the weather page is another classic Gary. This seems to be the highlight of my day now looking at the freeze frame. This one looks like you are giving a lecture and pointing your finger saying THE LRC IS A VALID TOOL DAMN YOU PEOPLE. I just have to laugh. It is a good ending to a day of labor. I can’t wait to see the next one! Day 3 in the books running away!

  • mukustink

    Gary the stations here are reporting dewpoints in the middle 60’s I will assume they are accurate since they are all about the same.

    The freeze frame on the weather page is another classic Gary. This seems to be the highlight of my day now looking at the freeze frame. This one looks like you are giving a lecture and pointing your finger saying THE LRC IS A VALID TOOL DAMN YOU PEOPLE. I just have to laugh. It is a good ending to a day of labor. I can’t wait to see the next one! Day 3 in the books running away!

  • cornstalk

    I have a weather theory. If call the CRSC. That stands for Cornstalk’s reoccuring summer cycle. It states that when its hot and dry in July and everything sw of you is burned to a crisp then it will be hot and dry in August. Lets see if I’m right.

  • 5pm in Pleasant Hill MO. Our thermometer reads 102 degrees in the shade. WOW!

  • Gary, Doe,s the ECMWF have any precipitation for the KC area?

  • Than lets put-up the LRC and see