Good morning bloggers,
We are moving into the last week of January and still waiting for our first inch of snow. KCI Airport has recorded 0.4″ of snow all season. Do you think we could end up with a record shattering winter and break the all time lowest seasonal total of 4.5″? How much snow do you think will be the final total for the season?
The Arctic Oscillation has dipped into the negative during the past two days, but I don’t see any sign of blocking of splitting of the flow. There is still a higher amplitude stream that keeps holding most of the coldest air far to the north. I will open up this discussion with an AO blog either tomorrow or Friday.
So, we continue to look for something exciting. There is a wave of energy approaching the west coast this weekend that should drop into the the southern Rocky Mountain states by the middle of next week. The GFS model has refused to do this digging, and instead it, and other models, continues to have a lack of any storm indicated all the way through. As a result the snowflake contest continues with no end in sight.
Have a great day. I will work on a more extensive and in-depth blog soon.
Gary
Going bold – 1″!!!
Bruce,
Your prediction is more than double the amount we have had so far. LOL! Good luck.
We will have two decent snow falls and get 6.2″ for the year.
5.2 at KCI.
my guess is that we end up with around 3.5 inches officially at KCI. one for the record books.
Still super-confident the snowflake contest will end this month, Gary?
Very funny Jerry! I have no confidence in whether it will snow one inch all season. Still looking for some indication. I will discuss this in the blog in the coming days. Jerry, please make a prediction on today’s question.
I won’t be making a prediction, as I’ve stated before, as I don’t think the current state of meteorology — the tools available — can justify season-long predictions.
I think season-long predictions are essentially tossing darts at a board, which I think exhudes a false sense of confidence.
Jerry,
That’s fine! We believe it is more than tossing darts at a board. It certainly seems that way at times. Now, when it comes to predicting a precise amount of snow over a season, I will agree with you. Just predicting a snowstorm for the next day is hard to get within a few inches.
Gary
Is guessing 4.0” . this winter has been CRAZY!!!!!
I’m going to go out on a limb and say 12″ We’ve had many wet storms around us…All it takes is a few miles and degrees and we will have snow. I think the first (full) week of Feb. will be when we get the majority of it.
I am going to be uber optimistic and say .5!!!!!!!! A girl can dream!!!
Well, I’m thinking easily less than 10″ snow for the season.
As for an official blogger guess… I’m going with 5″
Trouble with Winter it can suck you into a false sense of security. Just when you think it’s done with, along comes a fair snow and we keep going from there.
H.
Since we’re only halfway through winter. And the fact that is IS the midwest, I’m going to say 9.5″. 2 decent snows around mid Feb to mid March. I still wouldn’t rule out a whopper 10″ wet storm in March.
I concur with the 10″ whopper in March.
Good morning Gary—I will predict 5 inches of snow here in Berryton—-It seems to me the pattern has shifted back to late September through the end of October as the rains are setting up south but missing us—-it seems to me the rains that happened in November and December have to come back and just maybe we will get a little cold air to work with—I still say something bigger is going on that is preventing our winter from happening this year—Take care—Michael/Berryton/Topeka
Mike,
It does appear that the LRC is most resembling the October version with the dry and flatter flow in this cycle. The next cycle will likely by much more amplified, but will it be cold enough for snow?
I have lost all hope of having snow.
My guess is no more snow this winter
I am somewhat concerned for a dry spring, other than the temporary break in early December, it appears we’ve gone right back into the dry weather pattern. If this continues we definately will break the record. Though we still have February and March to get through, so I’ll say 4.5 inches.
Jeff
I’m saying maybe 1-2 inches this winter, however I do believe Severe Weather Season will begin in Late February early March for us this year…especially if the temps and pattern keeps trending this way…Gary what do you think?
-Bill
I should have saind thunderstorm season…not just severe weather
he can,t even get Jan.right. please don,t ask such benign questions
harsh but true…tush what’s your outlook look like?
This season I (really) have no clue.
i say a one shot storm 7.5 wait and see??
Gary, Are you finished “WISHCASTING” this season,or have you not learned? It seems to me your now asking for help… Yours truly,Kevin
Gary just like the rest of us probably hasn’t seen this weird of a winter. Can’t call em all. I doubt he needs help with forecasting…but we all need help trying to understand this crazy winter…agree? I like wishcasting. I still have youthful enthusiasm for exciting weather and I think you do to. No comes on this blog to seek out perfection or a perfect forecast from Gary…I think we all come here to enjoy the reading. No one could have predicted this mildness with no eminent arctic rush in the next 2 weeks….It’s all good…I just hate to see people start piling on and thumbing Gary for not calling it right. Look how many times even with wishcasting he has been right or mostly right. Can you read the models and offer a suggestion to this current zonal flow? I sure as heck can’t….Good read
Thanks Jeremia,
Can you imagine if a storm actually showed up? We can’t even wish-cast weeks out at this point. Maybe something will change soon. Have a great day.
AS Sgt.Joe Friday said, “Just the facts ,Mame”
I like your response,but Gary,s a professional.Wishcasting is way to easy.Anyone can. Maybe he should allow one of us to do the forecast (on the air)a couple of times a week?It makes as much sense as his long-range forecasting.20>in.of snow this winter; arctic outbreaks; 1 in. before the end of the month. COME ON! LETS GET REAL & STOP FANTASIZING!
Nice reply Jeremiah
Thanks man.
Gary, when is the next cycle, time period?
next year. maybe
We are in, close to a 47 day cycle.
In the immortal words of Jim Mora: Snow? Don’t talk about snow. Are you kidding me? Snow?
I think that this winter is done for and any winter storm from here out will start as a rain maker. I will boldly predict (guess) 3 inches for the season.
Jason,
I can just hear Jim Mora saying this. Very funny!
Gary- I heard you on Sports Radio 810 this morning and you were reminded of your winter prediction of 20+ inches of snow this season. Just like some of the other bloggers have mentioned, winter is only half over. I’m going to base my prediction on that fact in addition to the fact that I have total faith in your original forecast. Paxman predicts 21 inches plus a moderate to severe ice storm still awaiting us during the remainder of the season.
P.S. Thanks to all of you in advance who are about ready to ridicule my prediction!!!
Paxman,
Maybe we will get a 21 inch March storm?
Gary
Yes, but that 21″ forecast was based on the snowflake contest ending in early December…you picked the 5th or something, didn’t you Gary?
Yes, and it snowed and caused major rush hour problems on the 6th. Not a bad prediction, but it wasn’t an inch.
I’m calling less than an inch all winter. If this winter is going to be boring, it might as well be a record-breaking level of boring!
Amen! No one could have predicted that! Can’t hate Gary’s forecasting on that note… Exactly what I’m thinking. Well put
I think we’ll get total of 6-8″, mostly in 1-3″ events in Feb and March. That said, breaking the record is a realistic possibility.
the sad thing is that any one of you could be more accurate than Gary, and he gets paid upwards of 100k to do this for his job.. shaking my head
That is sad…very sad.Someone getting paid 100k,s to wishcast. p.s. To help w/ that shaking, have another alcoholic drink.. It works for me.
LOL
Tush first off learn to type… And second when did you become such a troll? I thought I remembered you as one of the “good bloggers”… And lastly, Gary winter hasn’t even shown up yet so I’m gonna go with 16″ of the white stuff before severe weather season starts! I know I told you all to put away the shovels and plows, but I think we’ll get surprised before its all said and done!
First of all,Tush was my dog,and dogs can,t type,w/the exception of BluespringsPaul.Second,Trolls live under bridges.I live in-a-van down by the river So,get your facts right,Mame!
Many of you are being so hard on Gary. Predicting seasonal snowfall here is extremely difficult, even using the LRC. As we have seen, the LRC may be real, but it is the LRC in combination with unpredictable (so far) variations in the AO, and the amplitude and phase of the flow, that make or break our winter. Just a reminder, one of Gary’s competitor’s put out their team’s predictions before Gary did, and all four mets on that team predicted more snow than Gary did. So far Brett is looking like the most prescient forecaster, using his squirrel theory, but we’ll need quite a bit of snow even to reach his modest forecast total. I think KC will wind up with less than 10 inches this winter, but more than the record low of 4.5 inches. I’ll guess 6 inches.
The big question is WHY would any Met.stick there necks-out so far,and make such a “stupid” forecast on winter snowfall totals? Is it because if one does it,the others must?..The Blind leading the Blind effect…
Perhaps they do it because a lot of their audience want to know what the “experts” think so they can get themselves mentally prepared to face the winter ahead? It has to be a ratings winner or it would not be done and advertised days and weeks in advance.
Those people also believe in Groundhogs.
Yes, the whole Groundhog thing seems pointless to me.
I think a lot of people dread the snow and ice of winter, esp. those who have to drive in it or work in it, and I bet many of them are happier when the forecast calls for snow and it doesn’t happen, like this winter, than when the forecast is for little snow and a lot falls, like last winter.
Except snow removal people, of course they love the snow.
Why does everyone keep saying that winter is “half over”. Winter started on Dec 22nd. It does not end until March 20th. It’s currently Jan 25th. Winter is only officially just over 1/3 over. We still have 2/3 of the season to go folks. Yes, it’s been an incredibly dry winter so far, but as most people will recall, our biggest and wettest storms typically occur between mid-February and mid-March. I recall a rather large snow storm occurring on March 20, 2010, as that was the date of a friends wedding. We still have PLENTY of time and opportunity for us to see sizable winter events. I’m liking not having to drive in slick conditions and deal with mounds of week old dirty snow… but I do love a couple good snow storms each year. I still think we get them… and I’d say we end up with a total of around 12″.
Todd,
Exactly, and KC’s biggest snowstorm happened in March. Now, let’s see if even a hint of one shows up.
Gary! I remember being a kid in NW Ks….Norton in fact. Back in the 80′s…maybe 85?….Anyway I think we got something like 24″ out of 3 storms in mid march…Anyway to verify or a site I can go to that covered those blizzards?
I remember a story about the Opendorfs who were found alive but frostbitten after 13 days in their car stranded
Both meteorological winter (Dec 1 – Feb 29) and the Kansas City snow season (November – March) are more than half over. The solstice-based seasons don’t line up well with climatology at all.
Well I’m almost to the point(not there yet) if we are going to have to wait so long for a good snow then we might as well have some sort of “record” to say we lived through and then we would know that next winter will “have” to be snowier;) I’m going to go with 5 inches for the season… no snow except for one storm that gives us just enough wet snow to stop us from getting the “record” and it will then be gone with in 12 hours of the precip. accumulating.
Wow. While we are so dry this month, Dallas-Fort Worth just set a new all-time record for the most rain ever to fall in a 24 hour period in January, 4.26 inches. This gives DFW a total of more than 6 inches of rain this month, the second wettest January on record. This info from ABC affiliate WFAA in Dallas Chief Met Pete Delkus on Twitter.
Both Dallas and Tarrant (Fort Worth) Counties in North Texas under Flash Flood Warnings. Collin County which includes many of the wealthy North Dallas suburbs like Plano, Frisco and McKinney is also under a Flash Flood Warning.
my question is, why do you pay a talking head so much to be absolutely wrong, teachers get paid 40k, to educate the youth, Meterologists get paid 100k to make pretty graphs and freak out when there is a funnel cloud in wichita,,, if i were a tv station owner, i would sell the millions of dollars worth of equiptment, hire a bikini modle to call wyoming to see what the weather is like on tuesday, and then forcast that weather for friday..
A Meterologist has a great impact on peoples lifes. I would think that you would want to know if a Joplin size tornado was heading your way or a major ice or snow storm that might make to where you can not travel for days or be without power for weeks.
major snow storm, that turns out to be a dusting, man those joplin meterologists did a great job warning about those tornados, what did they have, 9 minutes notice,, oh crap, its dark and windy like a mo fo,, better head downstairs…
common sense>meterology
Really insensitive….I was chasing that day and there was little to no rotation as it crossed cherokee county, so we decided to go after a different cell. Then literally a few minutes later it became a monster. Its weather cosmic…it gets dark and windy around here and there are usually no tornados.
Obviously you didn’t have anyone personally affected by the tornado.
The Joplin tornado itself spun up very suddenly and with little warning, but it was known that there was the potential for tornadoes in SW Missouri that Sunday and the job of media meteorologists includes giving the general public advance notice of such possibilities so they are aware of the potential.
Cosmin and Sed, I’m hoping this isn’t taken as a trolling but here goes.
I don’t think you would have found many Joplin people that weren’t under cover or knew about the impending T-Storm warning given by the weathermen. NOAA radios were blaring all over the place too. People knew it was something strong even if it wasn’t a tornado. Most people around here can tell when something horrible is brewing outside and they don’t need help from a TV. Like you said common sense>meteorology but only when you are in the eye of the storm. We have to rely quite a bit on these folks to help those of us out who can’t read the maps as well. They aren’t being paid to help you because you already know how to read maps! There is no thanks when they are right and much criticism when they are wrong..Just like teachers (like me) its a thankless job most of the time.
Besides all that. Too many sirens and people stop listening all together.
Don’t blame the meteorogists on a tornado that ripped people out of their basements. No Place is safe in an F5. Joplin was seriously a situation where nothing was safe aside from a bank vault type of room.
sure would beat Don Flamenco talking about his dogs
I am going with 4.7 inches with that over .4 coming in April. We are in Kansas City, the city where we can be close to something great and be let down (just look at all our sports teams). We will be close to breaking the record and then not break it.
Where was this Criticism for my ice storm prediction on the 23rd? Come on rush and cosmic. I would like to have you guys nag and moan about my prediction so that I feel better.
Also. Final snowfall prediction will be 6.2 inches.
nobody cares about your prediction,sorry, but your not a met your just a blogger thats why no one cares.
I believe we will set a record this year for lack of snow. My prediction a total of 3 inches at downtown airport who cares about KCI no one lives there.
Why does Gary get so much criticism? Well it could be that he touts the LRC is the best thing since sliced bread. He has a website dedicated to it and he tells business’s and people for a price he can give “accurate” long range predictions that could save them money and plan on what the weather will be like. I beleieve that is why he catches so much grief when the long range forecast is a bust. Does he give refunds to those folks?
Kumke your forecast sucked bad. You are horrible forecasting the weather. Feel better?
To me, there does seem to be something of value to the concept of the LRC. However, as a tool to forecast winter weather, it has shown to be less than perfect at times. I believe this is due to the influence other shaping forces of winter weather, notably the Arctic Oscillation, which no one has been able to forecast correctly far in advance, have on the mid-latitude longwave pattern that the LRC uses as the basis for its predictions. This will continue to be a problem for LRC-based predictions until the AO and all the major players influencing winter weather can be reliably predicted weeks to months in advance and can be factored into LRC-based predictions.
Would it be fair to say the LRC is not definitive but rather a nice tool that fits the “bell curve” of averages we have on a normal basis. In other words…this winter is anything but average therefore hard to use.
If the LRC is 85% accurate I guess that would awesome! But this ain’t and 85% winter so far….temps or precip? Well at least precip its not.
Good point man
There is no way I would have predicted back in November that this pattern would produce the lowest amount of snow in KC history. And, we still have time left so let’s see how the next cycle sets up.
Good points, and we will be using these other concepts combined with our knowledge of the cycling pattern in future forecasts. There will continue to be successful and accurate forecasts and we strive to make them more accurate in the future.
MUKU,
First of all, we don’t tout the LRC as the best thing since sliced bread. We do believe it is an excellent tool to help in forecasting from day 1 to day 120. But, there is a lot more to it and we are learning. Is the pattern cycling according to the LRC right now? Yes! But, if you are not in the sweet spot for storm systems it is difficult to pin down which ones will hit you hard. And, this pattern is a tough one to crack.
Gary
when you say “we”,who are you referring to?
6″ total for the season. One fair size snow in February, with 2-3 half inch type events. Not a record, but not much snow. After the snow seasons the last 2 years, the law of averages has to kick in at some point.
3. 2 at the most, so two.
Only twooooooooooooo meaaaaaaasly inches!
What a crazy season. This time last year, although we had a few snows, it was still below average until “Snowpocalypse” hit in early February. I think it was about 7 days later that Notawa, OK hit -31 (and only three days later, was already back in the 60s).
You just never know.
Pete
Sorry, but that’s simply not true.
By this time last year, KCI had already recorded 20″ of snow for the season. That’s average for an entire year and is well above average for January 25.
R-Dub is correct. The big blizzard was coming, but we were up to around 20 inches by now.
Gary
Tush…are you kidding me? Good grief all the stations do a winter prediction. It is just part of it. We all know it is more or less a stab in the dark.
As for me, I still believe that winter will throw us a few curve balls and we will get some snow/ice storms
I dont even know if I want to make a snowfall prediction. if this is going to be a boring winter for our area, I kind of want it to go out in record fashion with the lowest snowfall ever recorded, but then I want to be surprised too, with a good snowstorm, which is possible but seems unlikely at this rate. I’m not going to dog on Gary’s winter prediction or the LRC, yea this Winter and the the past couple have been pretty crazy. Maybe having 3 winters in a row with a lot of snow got the WX Team, and everyone else excited about what is going to happen this Winter. That series of very wet storm systems wiped out the drought after an incredibly dry few months. That would have gotten me very optimistic that we would have a wet Winter. I don’t know who could have predicted this Winter to turn out the way it has thus far. I am a strong supporter of the LRC, and Gary has provided plenty of evidence over the past years to, in my opinion, prove that there is a cycle, and it is repeating. It just comes down to the human factor, and how it is interpreted. Gary and the weather team will take these errors, and build off them, and make his long range forecast more and more accurate. I guess I’ll go ahead and say “optimistically” 6″ of snow..”wishcasting” for
I’m about done caring about this winter though, I’m more interested on what this Spring and Summer is going to be like, especially temperature wise. Right now at the rate this winter is going, it seems like we are in a for an early Spring, and a hot Summer.
R-Dub,
Latest time Kc ever recorded an inch of snow was in May, also Kansas city can get snow in October through April so I don’t think we will get too much snow, under 20 inches probably, but we still have plenty of time to pass the record low of snow.
I thought for sure the snowflake contest would end in January but it does not appear to be so.
I think we will get 12 inches of snow. I think the last half of Feb. will be stormy with snow. I have no idea why I think that it’s just a gut feeling. My bf said no way we get more then 5 inches of snow. Seeing has we had a inch of hail already snow can’t be to far off. Is this post ok with you kcchamps and the rest of you on the R.
good post
It’s easy to kick a man when the cards are down. The unprofessional critique from a few of you doesn’t show much credibility on your part. I highly doubt you would say that to him face to face. A lot of hot air from a few of you behind closed doors. It’s strange how when a forecast is good, you’re nowhere to be found.
Yes, the forecast so far has been off and looks likely to continue, but there’s a way to critique someone in a more respectful way. Judging from a few of the unprofessional attacks with your comments, my guess is that things aren’t so pretty in your life. It feels good each day to rip somebody that failed at trying knowing that you would never take any chances at anything that you might fail at. Yes, I’m aware he gets paid for it. I doubt his job requires him to blog every single day and mutiple blogs on potential storm days.
You’re lucky that we have a local weatherman that gives a rats a$$ to share is thoughts each day. I can promise you this is the exception and not the rule for many cities throughout our wonderful country.
14.7 inches of snow prior to April 1st.
Mowermike..Best post of the day. Thumbs up.
Mowermike! Sweet post man!
Best a$$ kissing post of the day!
Mower, I see you’ve backed off your original forecast just a hair, but i think you’re still a bit high at 14.7. I am going to back off my total of 9″ as well, to… JACK SQUAT, we’re breakin’ records this winter baby!
1.2″ with a 1/2″ snow”storm” thrown in there. Lowest temperature 5 degrees.
If it’s been too warm to snow in December with this LRC, I don’t see how it will be cold enough to snow in the 2nd half of February and beyond as climatoligy is working against us. With all of the low tracks leaving us on the southern edge, our snow relies heavily on clipper systems. We may have a few shots of some clippers coming down and this is why I think we may have another .8″ of snow in 2 snow events – one of which may produce a half inch.
f00dl3,,
What’s been crazy is that we haven’t even had any bones to chew on. Ya know, a storm 5-7 days out and we get to track it. Nothing…the GFS and others have been so boring. Not a dang thing to look forward to.
GIVE US SOMETHING TO NIBBLE ON……pleeeaaaasssseeee
(Clarification – by southern edge I mean warm sector of the storm for storms that are close enough to precipitate)
Spend all that time writing a post and poof it goes away. Just like winter and the forecast.
There were quite a few bones to chew on back in. December 2011 saw over 200% of normal monthly precipitation. November 2011 saw 178% of normal monthly precipitation. Don’t tell me there are no bones to chew on – the thing is, we have been in the warm sector all those times – I don’t see anything that will change that. Those lows left us with Rain during NOV/DEC, there is no way they will give us all snow in FEB/MAR if they repeat in FEB/MAR at same strength. The most damage they would likely do is leave us right around the freezing line giving Kansas City a significant 1″ ice storm, but at most a dusting of snow on top of that ice without a pure, deep shot of Arctic air. With our “LRC” this year, all the shots of Arctic air we have had have been brief and short lived, and then storm systems overrunning that Arctic air every single time.
Snow will probably become a thing of the past, too.
“Including 2011, all eleven years of the 21st century so far (2001-2011) rank among the 13 warmest in the 132-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century, 1998, was warmer than 2011.”
Source: “http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120119_global_stats.html”
Thanks for the link. That was an interesting read. Stunning.
We will get our snow, look for around 12″ mostly in March possibly even April. So far my winter forecast has been dead on so you can take this writing as gospel.