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Good morning bloggers,
Watch Blaine, our General Manager’s grandson, try to do the weather when he came running into the studio. He is 3 1/2 years old:
There is a major change in the weather pattern taking place across North America. This is the change we were expecting during the first week of August and it will likely result in beneficial rain, or perhaps too much rain in spots as we go through the next ten days. I will go into more details below, but let’s begin by looking back at yesterday’s record breaking day.
It was the hottest day in at least 27 years across the region. The 111 degrees in Olathe was the hottest temperature in 57 years. The 107° official high at KCI was the highest temperature Kansas City has recorded since August 29, 1984. The wind shifted to the north Tuesday evening and we had a dew point surge come in from the farms (corn and soy bean fields) across northern Missouri, Iowa, and Nebraska combined with the high water from the river flooding. The dew point reached 80° during the 10 PM newscast:
Let’s now look ahead. The Oklahoma/Texas drought has spread northeast and we are now on the edge of this extreme drought. There has been less than 1/2″ of rain over parts of the KC metro area since July 1st which is over four inches below average. Johnson County Excecutive Airport has had 0.33″ which is 7% of the average rainfall during this stretch. We have been expecting this major change in the weather pattern and it is happening right on schedule. About 18 days ago I showed on the LRC Weather Blog that the part of the pattern that produced the major tornado outbreak in cycle 4 of this years weather pattern would return around August 5th. It is returning at the weakest point of the overall jet stream and weather pattern. This part of the pattern will bring some stronger cold fronts and northwest flow to the region which will likely set us up into a wetter pattern for a while. The heat will still likely build back in sometime later in the month, but the outlook for the next ten days is wetter and cooler. We need the break and I am expecting some rather wet weather. The models are finally predicting some heavy rain in the area, take a look:
The front that moved through last night is drifting all the way into Oklahoma this morning where it will stall. It will be around for a few days with another front approaching to reinforce the cooler air over our area early next week. A few slow moving and weak upper level storm systems will also drift slowly across Kansas and Nebraska during the next few days. Conditions are coming together for some very heavy rain in spots, but again these rainfall amounts are likely going to vary greatly through our viewing area. The rainfall forecast to the left is from the NAM model. This is for the period Thursday through Saturday. Kansas City is in the axis of the heavy rain forecast, but notice that some areas still are forecast to have a lot less. This next map is one of the GFS model rainfall forecasts for the same period:
On this GFS rainfall forecast, valid for the 60 hour period ending Saturday, shows even heavier rainfall amounts. But, this is just the beginning. Our confidence is growing that this wet weather pattern will develop and last into the next ten days to two weeks. There will be many chances for rain, in fact we have a chance of rain every day on our seven day forecast beginning tonight or Thursday. We will go over the latest trends and go in-depth on our weathercasts today and tonight. We forecasted 3 to 4 inches of rain during the next two weeks on NBC Action News last night at 10 PM. Some spots will likely get much more than this forecast and others will likely still end up with a bit less. At least the heat wave has broken and we will likely have a few days with highs in the 80s, or possibly even 70s if we can get some longer lasting rain from one of the disturbances.
We have a few clouds this morning. Our forecast high of 93° is 14 degrees cooler than yesterday. Have a great day! Let us know if you have any questions. I will be updating the LRC Weather Blog later this week as we look ahead. The break in the excessive heat will feel good. Now, will the rain materialize. Our lawn, trees, ponds, lakes need the rain. The Missouri River does NOT need the rain and we have to watch this developing wet weather pattern closely as the rivers are still high.