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Major change in the weather pattern

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Good morning bloggers,

Watch Blaine, our General Manager’s grandson, try to do the weather when he came running into the studio.  He is 3 1/2 years old:

 

There is a major change in the weather pattern taking place across North America. This is the change we were expecting during the first week of August and it will likely result in beneficial rain, or perhaps too much rain in spots as we go through the next ten days.  I will go into more details below, but let’s begin by looking back at yesterday’s record breaking day.

It was the hottest day in at least 27 years across the region. The 111 degrees in Olathe was the hottest temperature in 57 years.  The 107° official high at KCI was the highest temperature Kansas City has recorded since August 29, 1984.  The wind shifted to the north Tuesday evening and we had a dew point surge come in from the farms (corn and soy bean fields) across northern Missouri, Iowa, and Nebraska combined with the high water from the river flooding. The dew point reached 80° during the 10 PM newscast:

Let’s now look ahead.  The Oklahoma/Texas drought has spread northeast and we are now on the edge of this extreme drought. There  has been less than 1/2″ of rain over parts of the KC metro area since July 1st which is over four inches below average. Johnson County Excecutive Airport has had 0.33″ which is 7% of the average rainfall during this stretch. We have been expecting this major change in the weather pattern and it is happening right on schedule.   About 18 days ago I showed on the LRC Weather Blog that the part of the pattern that produced the major tornado outbreak in cycle 4 of this years weather pattern would return around August 5th.  It is returning at the weakest point of the overall jet stream and weather pattern.   This part of the pattern will bring some stronger cold fronts and northwest flow to the region which will likely set us up into a wetter pattern for a while.  The heat will still likely build back in sometime later in the month, but the outlook for the next ten days is wetter and cooler. We need the break and I am expecting some rather wet weather.  The models are finally predicting some heavy rain in the area, take a look:

The front that moved through last night is drifting all the way into Oklahoma this morning where it will stall. It will be around for a few days with another front approaching to reinforce the cooler air over our area early next week.  A few slow moving and weak upper level storm systems will also drift slowly across Kansas and Nebraska during the next few days. Conditions are coming together for some very heavy rain in spots, but again these rainfall amounts are likely going to vary greatly through our viewing area.  The rainfall forecast to the left is from the NAM model. This is for the period Thursday through Saturday.  Kansas City is in the axis of the heavy rain forecast, but notice that some areas still are forecast to have a lot less.  This next map is one of the GFS model rainfall forecasts for the same period:

On this GFS rainfall forecast, valid for the 60 hour period ending Saturday, shows even heavier rainfall amounts.  But, this is just the beginning.  Our confidence is growing that this wet weather pattern will develop and last into the next ten days to two weeks.  There will be many chances for rain, in fact we have a chance of rain every day on our seven day forecast beginning tonight or Thursday.  We will go over the latest trends and go in-depth on our weathercasts today and tonight.  We forecasted 3 to 4 inches of rain during the next two weeks on NBC Action News last night at 10 PM. Some spots will likely get much more than this forecast and others will likely still end up with a bit less.  At least the heat wave has broken and we will likely have a few days with highs in the 80s, or possibly even 70s if we can get some longer lasting rain from one of the disturbances.

We have a few clouds this morning. Our forecast high of 93° is 14 degrees cooler than yesterday.  Have a great day!  Let us know if you have any questions. I will be updating the LRC Weather Blog later this week as we look ahead.  The break in the excessive heat will feel good. Now, will the rain materialize.  Our lawn, trees, ponds, lakes need the rain. The Missouri River does NOT need the rain and we have to watch this developing wet weather pattern closely as the rivers are still high.

Gary

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46 comments to Major change in the weather pattern

  • RickMckc

    Major change is right – 0Z NAM is much cooler over the next few days than previously indicated.

    “wxmaps.org/pix/mcinam.png”

  • OlatheMatt

    Details in the morning? Such a tease!

  • ravenscroft

    Reading the NWS”s latest long and short “Average” temps with vorts riding the norther side of the flattened thermal ride. Low 90’s with a running chance of rain.

  • ravenscroft

    1 cold is hard to deal with,hot just stinks but can deal.
    2 Gary’s blog Gary’s promo tool all good
    3 We all lived with out-o-control temps
    So when can we start the “average wave” count down?

  • ravenscroft

    One last thing checked story about missing water patrolman…no greater love.

  • f00dl3

    Here’s my stance on cold versus warm, from a running standpoint.

    If it’s above 95 degrees it’s (in my view) too dangerous to run as heat illness risks increase, and water consumption is one gallon per 12 miles, which means constant stopping to fill and empty if you know what I mean…

    If it’s below 13 degrees it’s borderline too dangerous to run long distances because, even with layering and changing out layers, the cold still ends up penetrating. Of course, I have yet to try layering with 2 therma-dry shirts – may try that this winter. But when you have ice forming from the sweat dripping off your lower eyelids after a 7 mile run in 12 degree temps, that kind of says something!

  • pjjayhawk

    Sprinkles this morning in Shawnee.

    • I felt a rain drop or two while walking Brezy and Stormy. We need to break the ice and get some heavier rain in here. Thursday will be the first big test.

      Have a great day!

  • nevada_mo

    Hey Gary, Just so you know, Johnson County Excecutive early in july was not reporting rainfall, and It dose not look like the rain from July 7th was ever added to the july total, I live right across the street from Johnson County Executive, and on the 7th we I recorded a o.39 inches of rain and Olathe new centrury recorded 0.47 while Johnson County Executive just has an “M” listied for rainfall that day, Liveing across the street from Johnson county excecutive my total recorded rainfall for the month of July was 0.72 inches of rain.

    Love the blog, keep up the good work.

  • JhwK33

    Hey Gary! Great to hear there is a change in the pattern that will bring us some rain. So when will we see a change in the pattern bringing us some consistent lower temps? Avg highs as we get to the end of the month go to the lower 80’s so will we start to see some longer stretches of 80’s as we get further into the month?

    • It is still deep into summer for another four weeks or so. September is when you can expect the threat of a heat wave to go away. It’s not that far off..

  • nevada_mo

    Hey am I the only one that thinks yesterday felt cooler with the low dew points it felt more like Phoenix, I did not sweat nearly as much. I thought it felt great; of course I love the hot weather. Also the front that came though last night I think should be called the opposite of a dry line like a humid line or a wet line, cause after that front came though last night we went from a nice dry heat before the front to a thick tropical rainforest like air mass after the front when the sun set.

    • It certainly was less humid, but to say that it felt cooler doesn’t make sense to me. It was by far the hottest temperature I have felt in a long time, despite the lower humidity. Yes, a dry heat, but definitely hotter.

      Gary

    • nevada_mo

      Your right it mabe did not feel cooler, mabe the right word is it felt differnt, I mean the wind did feel like you just opened the oven and your standing right over it and you got that hot flash of air on your face. But I got the house out and sprayed a fine mist into the air and it evaporated and cooled the air around it, I mean its ushally so warm here evap. cooling almost never works.

      • nevada_mo

        Thats suppose to say got hose out, and also its ushally so hummid here evap. cooling almost never works

  • R-Dub

    It felt cooler to me…once I turned on the sprinkler in the back yard at about 6:30. That actually felt pretty good with the north breeze picking up…

  • nevada_mo

    Gary and Bloggers
    I don’t get the argument that it is easier to warm up in the winter then it is to cool down in the summer. In the winter I don’t care how much you put on that dang wind still cuts right though you, also I saw many bloggers yesterday saying the heat just wears you down???? And the cold does not???? The cold and snow makes every little task a hassle. Having to bundle up just to walk outside to get the paper or take the dog out, having to shovel the drive way just to get out, then driving in it is stressful scary and even deadly as we have seen too many times. Then you add to the fact the days are 9 hours long which makes it depressing, plus you are stuck in the house, you can’t even go out and run which is hard on me because I try to run 4 miles 4 days a week. In summer days are long, and there is so much to do for example: Lake, Pool, Sports, Biking, Running, Hiking, etc…. And if you need to cool down jump in a pool or lake dump water on your head or go into the AC it’s not the 1970s anymore I know most of you bloggers have AC and if not you have access to it in public places, so there are plenty of ways to cool off on hot summer days here in the Southern Plaines, and while we have had deaths from the heat it’s still not close to the number of deaths we have from winter storms that all you all are always hoping for. Nationwide winter weather kills more people annually then the heat does.

    just my opinion

  • Jojo

    Hi Gary,
    Going to the Lake of the Ozarks for family vacation this weekend. Is it a washout or just isolated rain?

    • John,

      It is not a washout for sure down at the lake, but there will likely be a few thunderstorms around. Keep your eye to the sky. I am going to the lake this weekend too.

      Gary

  • Lets hope for the rain to come in.

    When will 41 get the title from the NWS for being “StormReady”? I would think it would be a great promotional tool to go along with the promotional tool of “MostAccurate”. Does a station have to apply in order to get that title from the NWS? Does it cost anything to get that title from the NWS or is it just free as long as you meet their criteria? Is there a downside to having that designation from the NWS? I would think every station in town would want that designation as I said it would be a great promotional tool for the station. Thanks have a great super day.

    • I don’t think there is much promotional value in being “StormReady”. We are already Storm Ready. It is important for us to work with the NWS to bring the viewers the best severe weather information, but being “declared” storm ready isn’t that important to us as a TV station. It IS important to be StormReady, but just to be declared it isn’t that big of a deal.

      Gary

  • mollieb345

    As I’ve said in a few comments, we need a hurricane or tropical storm to cool things off because the jet stream lowers; Tropical Emily = cooler temps for us!

  • LSDan

    @mollieb345, Your comment brings up a good point. I’ve always thought that a strong hurricane could and sometimes does change our weather. But I also wonder, do hurricanes occur because the weather pattern changes or does the weather pattern change because of a hurricane?

    • A strong hurricane is capable of affecting our weather in many ways. If it were to come up from Texas or Louisiana it could send moisture our way. They have subtle affects on the anticyclones and the upper level flow, but the affects are usually quite minor

  • mowermike

    Well, it’s cooler today…I guess. It was 101 at this same time yesterday and only 89 right now.

    What time our we expecting the first chance of rain tomorrow? Early, late morning? NWS has us at a 60% likely hood as of now. NWS is also predicting NW flow as we move into next week and possibly wet too. Let’s hope this pans out, the dry and hot is boring.

    I’m going to go with 4.9 inches of rain by next Sunday, August 14th. I think the LRC predicted a rather cool and possibly wet stretch through the first half of August. Let’s see how the prediction unfolds. The rain gauges need a drink. It’s been a while.

    It’s almost football season! Go Chiefs. 11-5 is my prediction. Tough schedule though.

    • Mowermike,

      There is a good chance of rain with a disturbance moving across Kansas late tonight into Thursday. I am somewhat hopeful it ends up a bit south of where the GFS is predicting it to go, which is across the already saturated ground to our north. The front is so far south now that it may just favor this to come over Kansas City, but my confidence in it is a bit shaky, so I will probably go with 50% chance Thursday. Some spots will likely get close to five inches of rain from this disturbance, but others again will likely end up with sprinkles. Our weather team is working on some special graphics to describe this set up on our weathercasts tonight.

    • JFTtown

      11-5, really? I can’t see it but I sure hope you are right. Probably a better chance of going 5-11. But if they go 11-5 I’ll be the first one to tell you nice call, Mike.

      • mowermike

        My family has had tickets for 34 years. I now have the tickets, so the 11-5 is really just a loyal fan prediction. It’s going to be tough just to win 8 this year. But, every year when the schedules come out, we always say this is a loss, that’s a win, there’s 2 losses, but, in the end, every team ends up different then first thought.

        Case and point, nobody predicted the Chiefs to win the division last year to start the season, but in the end, we did.

        • Quite a few problems in that 11-5 wish record.
          1. Quarterback- Still has a lot to prove! Don’t think he is a superbowl type QB
          2. Defensive Line- We have done nothing to improve the D-line and especially against the run and pass rush.
          3. Offensive line is still questionable especially with the release of our all pro guard Brian Waters.
          4. Until Hunt wants to spend money like the Eagles and or GB then we will never have a Super Bowl quality team. It is sad that KC has 2 cheap owners and the fans suffer for it. Wish for the days of Auggy Busch and Mr. K when they spent THEIR OWN money to bring winners to the fields!

          • mowermike

            All very true points. I wasn’t happy about the “D” line upgrade, not much at all.

            I’m not concerned about the QB, he’s got a great backfield, all he needs to do is concentrate on not losing the game for the team. He does have some more potential weapons this year.

            the “O” line, well, they were exposed big time versus the Raiders and Ravens to end last season. I was at both those games and Cassel was beat up. Not confident on the moves there either.

            Bottom line, we need to win all games at home and steal 3 on the road. Going to be tough looiking at that schedule.

  • RickMckc

    Love the look of the 12z GFS … three (summer) cold fronts in the next 7 days. GFS meteogram shows 2.1″ of rain here tomorrow afternoon/evening. We sure could use it.

    “wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

    • mowermike

      Rick, that would be nice to see that much rain tomorrow. Only problem, if it comes quick, most of it will be river water and not soil water.

  • braysmama

    I planned our vacation for the 6th through the 9th down at Branson since it is usually hot and dry, but of course the weather pattern had to change. We need to make a decision on going or canceling since I don’t want to go down there if it’s going to rain. We have rain check tickets to White Water and don’t want to go just to leave early again. Is this rainy/cool weather going to make it down to southern MO, or will it stay up towards KC?

    • That’s why you need to follow the LRC so you can plan these trips!

    • Braysmama,

      Even though there are chances for rain, they will not be all day events. Highs will be in the 80s to low 90s, so I would not cancel. Lets just hope the period or two of rain does not hit when you do not want it to!

      Jeff

      • braysmama

        Thank you! It sounds like we will go ahead and try it. I just don’t want to drive all the way down there and stay at the water park for an hour and then have to leave. I have been following another meteorologists blog down in Joplin and tried planning my trip according to his month long forecasts. Hope it’s right!

  • Mr. Steve

    Of course I scheduled time to do a major yard work overhaul just when this heat hit weeks ago. D’oh! Nothing accomplished. Yesterday was extreme. Still prefer it over winter though. Quite amazing that todays high feels cool and comfortable in comparison to yesterday.

  • Emaw

    That 7-day is more like it, near average temps. and some rain chances… off topic here, but the Chiefs got Leron McClain from Baltimore, no official word yet though.

  • Weatherman Brad

    gary,

    are you going to post the rainfall amounts that we are expecting to get for tomorrow just wondering.

    we really do not need anymore rain and storms along the Missouri river, before you know it some of the parking lots up in parkville missouri maybe disapering before you know it.

  • Emaw

    I just sat outside for awhile it was very comfortable. It was 110 in my neck of the woods yesterday, and 24 hrs. later I am outside talking to my neighbors. I don’t remember doing that 6 months ago when it was below zero and we had over a foot of s#@*….