Now to Storm #2

Good Sunday bloggers,

Storm #1 produced 1″ to 3″ of rain across the area. Scattered showers will end this morning, leading to a decent afternoon. The next storm arrives Monday evening and exits Tuesday evening and we are now in a Flash Flood Watch for this storm.

The next storm is now bringing an unseasonable amount of rain and snow to California. Downtown Los Angeles has already seen over .50″ from the last storm and this storm. They average around .25″ for the whole month of May. The storm system will drop into the southwest USA tonight and it will induce deep tropical air to surge north into the Plains over a large cool air mass. This will create widespread very heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.


Here is a large Flash Flood Watch that is in effect Monday evening through Tuesday evening. It extends from Dodge City to Omaha to Kirksville.


There is a moderate to most likely high risk for severe weather later Monday from western Oklahoma to southwest Texas. We are on the northeast edge of the severe threat as we will be in the cool air. Some larger hail is possible later tomorrow night around here.


SUNDAY: It will be a nice afternoon with highs in the 60s. The EOI (Eat Outside Index) will be near a 10 this evening as the wind will be 5-15 mph from the west and northwest along with abundant sunshine. The cold front that moves through this morning will be stalling across far south and west Texas.


MONDAY MORNING: We will be dry with lows in the low to mid 40s as deep tropical moisture surges north over the large cool air mass sitting over the Plains. This will create a very large area of rain and thunderstorms from northeast Colorado to southwest Texas.


MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The large area of rain and thunderstorms will enter eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the evening. We will see highs in the 50s to low 60s. A severe weather outbreak will be taking place from western Oklahoma to southwest Texas in between the warm front and dry line.


MONDAY NIGHT: There will be a zone of tremendous rain and thunderstorms from eastern Kansas to northern Missouri as the warm front gets closer. Right now it looks like the I-35 corridor is the target.  This could still shift west or east up to 100 miles. In the tremendous zone flash flooding WILL be a problem. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”  Also, some thunderstorms may contain large hail in any location. Temperatures will hold in the 50s to near 60°.


TUESDAY: This is going to be a weird weather day as the strong storm in the southwest USA lifts northeast very intensely across the Plains. The big thunderstorms from Monday night will lift into Iowa and Nebraska. There may be a brief break as the warm front surges through. As the warm front is surging through, a cold front will be catching up with a rapidly moving dry line. This will create a narrow warm sector over our area during the middle of the day. A new line of thunderstorms will be found on the dry line/cold front. They will likely be heavy, but what about severe? That will depend on how warm the warm sector becomes. There will not be much time for warming. Now, locations to the east may be a different story. Highs may reach the low to mid 70s briefly with 50s before and after.


ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS: 4″ to 10″ of rain is likely and the zone of heaviest rain tomorrow night will play a role in who sees the most the next 10 days. Now, the events Wednesday night into the weekend could bring some insane totals as well. So, 4″ to 10″ may be underdone!


It is not just the rain around here, but a decent amount of rain is possible over the Missouri and Mississippi river basins. So, we will be watching the flash and river flooding potential the next several days and weeks.


In summary, we have seen around 2″ of rain, officially, so far at KCI. It will be dry this afternoon through Monday afternoon ahead of storm system #2.


Have a great week, stay safe and watch for flowing water.

Jeff Penner

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