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Good morning,

The snowflake contest finally ended at 5:26 AM when 41 Action News Meteorologist Brett Anthony measured one inch of snow in front of our studios at 4720 Oak Street!  How much snow did you receive from this small snowstorm?  I just measured 1.6″ in Overland Park. Here is a picture of Breezy & Stormy in the snow early this morning:

There are a lot of school closings for the first time this season, mostly on the Missouri side, as roads are slick and hazardous this morning.  There are still many schools NOT closing today, so check out 41 Action News for the list of school closings scrolling across the bottom of the screen.

Snowfall totals:

• Excelsior Springs, MO:  3.0″
• Oskaloosa, KS:  3.0″
• Lee’s Summit, MO:  2.5″
• Olathe, KS:  2.5″
• Kansas City North, MO:  2.2″
• Overland Park, KS:  2.0″
• Raytown, MO:  1.8″
• Belton, MO:  1.7″
• McLouth, KS:  1.6″
• 41 Action News (The Plaza), MO:  1.6″

Let us know how much snow you had and I will add it to the list. We are going into a dry slot in the next few hours and the accumulating snow should quickly end by mid-morning. The main disturbance will track near Kansas City this evening and there may be another band of light snow or possibly drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and this last band may be somewhat organized later today and if it is snow, which it most likely will be, we could have an additional dusting to 1/2″ possible.  Temperatures will be warming up to near or just above freezing with the south winds today.  Our next storm may produce thunderstorms or at least some rain on Wednesday. We will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

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Good early morning bloggers,

One thick band of snow is increasing and heading our way. The leading edge will be in the KC metro area very soon. Here is a look at radar as this band was approaching around 1 AM:

It now appears that the accumulation of snow will come from this band of snow as a wave of energy rotates through by the end of the morning rush hour.  The forecast snowfall totals are still on target and I am expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow as this moves through.  There have been a few reports near Wichita of close to 3 inches in this band of snow, so this is not out of the question as the band is widening as it approaches Kansas City.

Who is up watching? Let me know what you experience. I am getting ready to head outside and look for that first snowflake.

Gary

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Good afternoon bloggers,

The anticipation is building for our first inch of snow.  The snow will likely move in between midnight and 3 AM. The temperatures the past two mornings have been 5 degrees at KCI Airport.  The ground is now very cold and this will help maximize accumulation of this rather small snowstorm.  The roads will quickly become slick and hazardous within an hour after the first snowflakes fall.  How much snow are we expecting? Let’s look at some probabilities.

• Chance of under one inch: 10%
• Chance of one to two inches: 60%
• Chance of more than two inches: 30%

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Hey guys…our winter weather advisory is out!  It’s a marginal event, but with the lack of almost anything else this winter, we’re in it!

Today we’re sunny and chilly.  Here’s the deal for the advisory:
-Wichita & OKC: This evening and tomorrow.
-KC, Springfield & Omaha: Late overnight and tomorrow.

The advisory extends from Omaha through Oklahoma/Texas/New Mexico.  The pink in Arkansas is a winter storm warning for: 4 inches of snow along with a glaze of ice.  At this point, you may want to reconsider a Monday morning drive to Wichita or Springfield.

Right now, the snow has started falling around Lubbock, TX.

We’re just waiting until after midnight for snow in KC.

Powercast shows the snow creeping into the southwestern sections of the viewing area around 2 am tonight.

This will likely be light to steady snow, with isolated areas with heavy snow.  We’re still going with our forecast of 1-3 inches.  Recent GFS forecast runs have supported barely an inch of snow with this event, until the most recent model run…which is more supportive of 2″+ totals.  Most of the snow would fall late overnight and Monday morning.

Late Monday morning and afternoon is when the potential for drizzle and freezing drizzle becomes more likely.  We’ll have to watch for the potential for refreezing of any melted snow Monday evening…or even lingering freezing drizzle.  So the impact to roadways is forecast below:

3AM: The potential for slick roadways is there…it’s completely dependent on the time the snow starts falling.  With temperatures below freezing, a coating of white should quickly follow the onset of any snow.
6AM: Snow show have already started accumulating at this point, and slick roads are likely.  Heavily traveled roadways and those treated by road crews may fare a little better.
9AM: Slick roads…delays likely…accidents likely.
By 12pm-3pm:  Roads may begin to melt aided by any treatments by road crews and temperatures warming above freezing in the afternoon.  But it’s still snowing/drizzling.
After 5pm: Temperatures will dip back below freezing and slick spots may redevelop.  Watch for freezing mist/drizzle.

Be careful.

We’ll update this timeline for the 5/10pm news.  So check back in.

-GW

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Hey Guys…I hope all’s well!

When we get the official climate report this afternoon, we’ll know if we dipped to 5° at KCI between 6 and 7 am.  If we did…this would officially be the coldest morning so far this winter.  If not, it ties the morning of January 18th.  None of this really matters, as tomorrow morning will likely be a degree or two colder.

We wait for the next weather event through a cold and quiet weekend.

It’s going to snow Monday morning.
Will we have snowcovered and slippery roads during the morning commute? Likely
Will some schools be cancelled? Probably
Will it be a winter storm?  Yes by 2012 standards, probably not by most other years’ winter standards.

I really want you to be careful Monday morning.  We’re not seasoned in the art of winter driving yet this winter, as we haven’t had much snow.  I think we’ll have a lot of accidents Monday morning. 

Also, send us your weather pics:

Pictures, along with snowfall totals, road conditions, power outages, details on how the “storm” is affected you are all extremely helpful to us…and can be helpful to others when we share that info on air.

Below shows the upper level flow pattern at 500mb (around 3-4 miles above sea level) for Monday morning, forecast by NAM model.

The shaded yellow represents vorticity…a term that can be described as “the local whirling rate of air particles” in the flow.  Areas upstream (i.e. east) of these disturbance tend to experience lift, which can help develop precipitation.  (Did you know this is only true if the vorticity beneath the “X” ALSO  increases with height, from the surface to 500mb? )

The “X” is the center of the vorticity max.  The “X” in this map surrounded by the deep shade of yellow indicates a fairly organized and centralized winter storm, likely capable of more than the 1-3″ of snow that we are forecasting for Monday. 

Another forecasting model, the GFS, is forecasting much less organiztion and more diffuse vorticity approaching KC at this time.  Couple that with the snow-phobic nature of this winter and the end result is: “we’re not going too aggressive on the snow totals forecast.”  Our 1-3″ forecast still seems good, with most of it falling between 3am and 11am Monday.

We’ll look at the new data and hash it out 5/6pm tonight on 41ActionNews!

Have a good weekend!

-GW

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Good evening bloggers,

It’s Friday Night In The Big Town!  The next two nights may be the coldest nights of this winter.  We are forecasting a low of 5!

By Sunday night a storm will be approaching spreading clouds and a 90% chance of snow our way.  Here is the Powercast I am showing on the 6 PM newscast:

 We are forecasting 1″ to 3″ inches of snow across the entire viewing area. This doesn’t mean that 3″ will fall everywhere, but there will likely be a few spots that end up with around 3″, possibly a bit more. Most areas will likely end up with between 1″ and 2″.  This storm is not a very strong storm. If it is any more disorganized there is still a 10% chance that it doesn’t quite come together in our area.  And, there is still a 20% chance that the snowflake contest does not end, but this means that there is an 80% chance of the contest ending early Monday and one of our viewers picked that day.

The new data came in and confirms our initial forecast thoughts. This is a likely 1 to 3 inch snowstorm. With the ground being so cold, the first snowflakes will accumulate.  This is still two days away, so let’s see if it grows stronger, or weaker.

Have a great Friday night!

Gary

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Watch 41 Action News for Kansas City’s Most Accurate Forecast!

Good morning bloggers,

An Arctic air mass is arriving this morning as one of the strongest cold fronts (perhaps the strongest one) of the season is blasting through. An Arctic high pressure area is strengthening over southern Canada this morning and it is likely going to settle right over eastern Kansas Saturday night. Temperatures will be falling all day long and it will likely drop to near 10 degrees or lower by Saturday morning.  Our forecast low on Sunday morning is 5 degrees. It hasn’t been that cold this entire winter, but it was close on a few days.  Here is the surface map showing the cold front, the leading edge of the Arctic air mass, at 7 AM:

Coldest mornings this season at KCI Airport:

• January 18th:  6 degrees
• January 13th:  8 degrees
• December 7th:  9 degrees

Click on this next surface forecast for a larger view.  This is a surface forecast valid at 6 PM Saturday. The Arctic high pressure area will be settling in near the KS/NE border and temperatures will likely reach their lowest level of the winter by Sunday morning down to near zero in some areas near the Nebraska and Iowa borders, and below zero over the snow field that was left from last weekend’s snowstorm that just missed us to the northwest.  Notice how the high pressure area is forecast to expand south all the way to the Yucatan Peninsula with north winds over the entire Gulf of Mexico.  This surface high will weaken and shift east on Sunday as the storm approaches from the west. A cold air mass will be in place Sunday night and if we do get any precipitation at all it will be maximized as the first snowflakes that fall would immediately accumulate on the frozen ground.  The ponds will likely freeze over later tonight, or certainly by Sunday morning.

It is becoming increasingly likely that our first inch of snow may finally happen, but it is not a slam dunk.  It will depend on how a storm develops over the southwestern United States and how it tracks into the plains. Take a look at where this coming from:

This map (left) shows the 500 mb forecast valid tonight.  You can click on the map for a bigger picture.  The 500 mb level is at around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere and we like to look at this level to find storm systems.  The flow aloft is forecast to split over the eastern Pacific Ocean today and this will lead to a southern branch of the jet stream storm system. I pointed at this system developing off the California coast this evening.  This is a very complex developing pattern and since this split is just now developing a lot of various evolutions of this southern stream storm will present themselves in the coming three days before our chance of snow arrives.  I just said before our “chance” of snow arrives.  It is still not a certainty that we will get an inch of snow out of this storm as we are living through the winter of 2011-2012 that so far has not had one inch of snow.  Today, we will be moving up the historic chart and this winter has now become the fourth latest first inch ever with less than four weeks before the latest date ever recorded on March 6th, 1923.

The computer models coming out this morning are showing a warm advection pattern developing by Sunday evening. Warm advection is a process which winds bring in warmer air into a colder region, and when this combines with enough moisture advection, and conditions are right we can get precipitation generated.  There will be a lack of low level moisture available for this storm system as the Gulf of Mexico is being worked over, but there should be enough moisture available to produce precipitation as the storm approaches from the west Sunday night into Monday.

My first concern, and something that can still go wrong, is the evolution of the upper level storm approaching from the west. The upper level energy will likely be going through a transition as the precipitation is developing Sunday night to our west. One thing strongly in the favor of our first inch of snow happening Sunday night is that it will be so cold.

We are down to the Final Four in our Snowflake Contest. LaToya Frasier predicted 1:45 AM on Sunday night/Monday morning.  Good luck LaToya! At this second it looks like she will be within a couple of hours of hitting this forecast from months ago.

Have a great morning. We will update the blog later today as we move closer to our best chance of snow this season.  We will have in-depth details on 41 Action News throughout the weekend and updates in the blog as this gets closer.   Have a great day!

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

It is another cloudy start to the day as the weather pattern just may be getting a bit more exciting.  Two storm systems will likely affect us next week, but will the cold air stay around for these storm systems? We will begin today with a look at tomorrow morning’s cold blast from Canada.  The cold front that will blast through early Friday is still just now developing near the US/Canada border. By 5 PM this afternoon it will be moving across the Nebraska/South Dakota border and racing our way:

This is going to be a strong cold front, about as strong as the ones we had earlier in the season when we did drop into the single digits in December and January.  We will likely have single digit lows by Sunday morning and then the storm will be approaching. Do you remember what happened the last time we had a cold blast with a storm approaching?  We had a high of 27 degrees on the 21st of January.  The next day the cold air was jolted out of here, there were thunderstorms, and it warmed up to near 60 degrees.  We were set up for some ice or snow, and we ended up with a spring evening and mild.  I don’t expect that to happen this time, but the storm that will likely affect us on Monday is not that impressive looking at the moment.

There are two storm systems that will likely affect us in the next week.  The first one on Monday is forecast to weaken considerably as it tracks over our area, and the second and stronger one is due to affect us around next Wednesday.

The possible blocking changes in the AO/NAO are no longer showing up.  I just looked over the latest morning model runs and the Monday storm is not impressive at all, and the follow up storm isn’t either. So, the winter of 2011-2012 continues to frustrate the winter weather enthusiast.  This Monday chance of precipitation is still four days away and I don’t want to spend a lot of time analyzing it right now. At first glance it looks like one band of showers moving by, and if it is at all organized there could be some minor accumulation. Let’s see how this trends in the next few days.

Have a great day!

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

The clearing line is way northwest and north of Kansas City this morning so we are expecting it to stay cloudy for much of the day.  A storm system passed us yesterday with just a few spotty showers, mostly rain showers despite the atmosphere supporting snow from around 1,000 feet above us on up.  It did snow west of Kansas City from Manhattan to Wichita but even there it was barely a dusting.  We continue to move up the historic latest first inch in Kansas City history chart:

The Kansas City winter of 2011-2012 is currently in 5th place for the latest first inch, and on Friday we will move up the list into 4th place.  There is still no storm system really showing up that gives me any confidence that our first inch will fall despite a strong cold front moving through tomorrow night and a storm approaching us on Monday.  Let’s take a look at these two features.

A cold front will blast through us Thursday night. It is one of the stronger fronts of the season and this time it has some snow cover to move over across Nebraska and Iowa.  Here is  the surface map valid at 6 PM Friday:

By 6 PM Friday a 1040 mb surface high will be expanding a very cold air mass across the United States east of the Rocky Mountains.  The front will be moving into North Texas and Kansas City will be going deeper into the cold air into Saturday when we are forecasting a high in the 20s.  A storm system will then approach us from the west, but don’t get too excited about winter weather yet.  The computer models are all over the place on how this early next week storm system is going to affect Kansas City.  First of all it doesn’t look that strong. And the biggest question I am wondering about is how much cold air will be moved out before the storm produces any precipitation?  Here is a look at the split flow developing just off the west coast:

A weak storm in the southern branch of the jet stream will drop into the southwestern states by Saturday night.  We will still be strongly affected by the northern branch as you can see the deep vortex (488 dm circle) east of Hudson Bay.  The northern branch will be giving way to the southern branch as this southwestern storm approaches.  A second system will come across the eastern Pacific Ocean and drop into the southern branch as well, which will kick out the weak southwestern storm into the plains by Monday.  Let’s take a look at this next 500 mb forecast from this morning’s GFS model valid Monday at noon Monday:

The northern branch around the big vortex in Canada retreats northward by Monday and Kansas City is now fully in the southern branch of the flow by Monday. The cold air mass will be retreating as well, but how much cold air near the surface and aloft will be questions that will have to be answered as the precipitation moves our way on Monday. Will it just be a cold rain?  Or, could it be freezing rain or snow?  The latest GFS has it mostly rain.

Important arrow:  Do you see the arrow I pointed to way up in the upper right corner of the map?  What could be a significant development in the overall weather pattern is trying to form at this time frame. I am pointing to a developing upper level high near Greenland. So far this season the heights have been very low over this region. If an upper high forms near Greenland it could have a significant impact on the weather pattern. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) could go into negative territory for the first time this season. This morning’s GFS model tried to close off an upper high and this caused our heights over the USA to drop just a bit which could help the storm systems become a bit more wintery.  But, then it just fell apart and this model run didn’t quite do it and this would more likely fit what has been happening all winter.  Just the attempt at doing it caused the heights over the United States to drop a bit on this model run.  It is something to watch closely.

We will go over some of this on our weathercasts on 41 Action News today and tonight.  Maybe, just maybe, the weather will have some winter excitement soon.  Next week should at least have a couple of storm systems to track.  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog!

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

An upper level storm, that has looked nice on satellite pictures, will track through the region today. As it passes a pretty strong cold front will move through. Here is a forecast map valid at 7 PM tonight:

There is very limited low level moisture and it will be a struggle to get precipitation falling aloft to reach the ground.  There will be a few showers (rain, mixed, or snow showers) ahead of  the cold front, most likely south of Kansas City.  After the cold front moves through colder air will surge in this evening with a chance of snow showers/snow flurries, but as you can see on this forecast map above it isn’t looking like anything significant at all.  A more organized band of precipitation may track just south of Kansas City.  This system is just not quite strong enough and with the lack of moisture it will be mostly just a thick band of clouds with those few showers.  The organized area of precipitation that  will likely track south of Kansas City will be developing in an area of low level temperatures above freezing despite very cold air aloft, and as a result rain is the most likely precipitation type. In any other winter I would have expected accumulations of snow just south of KC. Let’s see how this develops this afternoon.

KCI Airport has now had 9.32″ of rain since early November and yet only 0.7″ of snow:

Have a great Tuesday! A stronger cold front will be approaching Thursday night. We will go over all of the details on 41 Action News tonight.

Gary

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