Quantcast

Warmer on Sunday, but it comes with a price

We were forecasting some of the coldest temperatures of the season this morning. And for many, it happened.
7
What did not happen, however, is the hard freeze for Kansas City (three hours or more of temperatures below 28°). Just enough wind and little cloud cover prevented the temps from falling too far. But we did not miss it by much. As you can see on the map above, temps in the teens were not that far away at all.

Looking ahead to Sunday, it is going to be warmer in the afternoon. But that’s because of some strong winds from the Southwest. I expect wind speeds to be sustained at 20 to 30 miles per hour and gusts near 40mph would not surprise me. If you are going to Arrowhead for the Chiefs game, this is what you can expect.
2

Moving ahead to Monday, we’ll be watching a cold front approach. This front will likely be enough to generate some moisture. Given what I’ve seen, I would not be surprised for several areas to see around an inch or so of rain. Like always, this does not mean that EVERYONE will get inch nor does it mean an inch is the most anyone will get. With the moisture return coming from the South, I would expect those areas to pick up the higher rainfall amounts, while those in our Northern coverage area would see lesser amounts.
5

The image above is from our in-house Powercast model. It says the rain arrives Monday night and is out of the KC area by Tuesday morning. This sides pretty well with the latest NAM guidance as well as the GFS and RPM simulations. Matter of fact, most of the models are on the same page with this system. Haven’t seen that in a while!

A reminder to set those clocks back an hour tonight.
4 (1)
This is also a good time to change the batteries in your smoke alarm and carbon monoxide detector. If you run a weather radio on battery power, swap those out too. It would also be wise to change filters in your furnace if you’ve not done so already this season.

I know many are now wondering about the winter forecast and what will greet us over the next few months. Please keep in mind we don’t have all the answers (or guesses even) just yet. We do not knowingly withhold this information from you. Gary and I were just chatting about a potential pattern the other day and right now, there is not one showing up. I have meteorologist sources who live in other parts of the country that have already published winter forecasts for their areas. I am studying those and looking over all the info I can. I am also waiting to see Gary’s take with his theory. I am not in a position to publish a full-blown winter forecast and I make no bones about it: I do not profess to be a long-range forecaster. I have only been doing this job for ten years and I believe I specialize in short-term weather, especially severe weather. So just like there are different brands of doctors (bone doctors, ENT docs, heart docs, etc), there are different brands of meteorologists.

When our team has an idea of what we feel is going to happen, we’ll let you know. In the meantime, there is no sense in getting too worked up about it. Short-term forecast is looking pretty good. It could be worse… Historic snow today in parts of the Carolinas!

Have a nice weekend and hang on to your hats tomorrow.
-JD

Hard Freeze Likely Tonight!

Good morning bloggers,

It’s a windy and colder start to Friday!  The fall foliage season has been a good one, and it isn’t over yet. There are still many trees just getting triggered to change so we should have some beautiful color for another couple of weeks before all of the leaves fall off by December. A hard freeze will help trigger the other trees that have yet to change, and this should happen this weekend.

1

Freeze Warning:

High pressure will be settling right over Kansas City tonight into early Saturday creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling.  A clear sky with light winds allows the heat to escape easier and this creates the conditions for temperatures to drop until the sun rises.  Conditions will be ideal tonight and we are forecasting a hard freeze with a low near 24° Saturday morning.

2 PM

Our next storm is showing up for Monday and it is one we will be monitoring closely over the weekend. The conditions should be quite favorable for thunderstorms and heavy rain, but exactly where the heaviest rain will be located will depend on how the upper level storm forms over the southwestern United States.  The trend continues to be for a wetter storm system approaching us on Monday.

We get an extra hour of sleep Saturday night as the time change happens earlier this year. It is Fall-Back, which happens on the first Sunday of November, which happens on November 2nd this year. If you go to bed early, then you will get that extra hour of sleep. If you stay up until 2 AM, then suddenly it will be 1 AM again!

fall back

 

Have a great weekend!

Gary

And We Move On

Good morning bloggers,

The Kansas City Royals took us on a season long ride of ups and downs. And, to get so close to winning the World Championship of baseball is difficult to take, but we must move on.  The Royals were one hit away from getting it done, but in the end they went up against a superstar.  Here is what I posted on my Facebook fan page:

“Hey Royals fans….Congratulations! We had one incredible ride in 29 days of playoff baseball. Yes, we came up one hit away from a walk off World Series Championship, but we fell short. I just got back from the game, and it was a memorable time to share with everyone. We at 41 Action News were proud and still are proud to be the official meteorologists of the American League Champion Kansas City Royals. I hope everyone takes this in and remembers it in a positive way. I am such a huge sports fan, and I was surprised to feel fulfilled after the game was over. I know there are a lot of very sad fans out there, and that is justified as well. It will certainly be a battle to get back into the Playoffs and 2015 may be just as special. Life was floating by for around a month. Let’s give everyone around you a big hug and a high five or fist bump and we can move on. Thank you so much to all of the players and the management team. The Royals were the best team in baseball for the past 80 games, well, maybe we should say the second best team. Have a great day and we will see you on on 41 Action News.”

A cold front will move through this evening and it will be a windy and cool Halloween.

1

After the freeze on Saturday morning, and it will be a hard freeze in all areas, we will have a return to south winds and it will be a windy day out at Arrowhead. And, then another front will arrive Monday and the latest data has been trending into a line of heavy thunderstorms later on Monday:

2

 

We will go over all of the details on 41 Action News. Have a great day!!!!!

Gary

GAME SEVEN OF THE WORLD SERIES

Good morning bloggers,

Here is what I posted at the end of the incredible 2nd inning last night! Did you get any sleep? Tonight is going to be a big night in KC.

2

The Royals have made it to game 7 of the 2014 World Series. Can you believe it? And, the weather could not be much better for a baseball game in late October. The wind will be light, and the sky will be clear.  Take a look at the surface forecast map valid at 7 PM tonight:

1

A strong storm will be digging into the Ohio River Valley, but we will only barely get clipped by this developing storm. Kansas City’s first freeze is likely on Saturday morning and we are forecasting a low of 26°.  Now, let’s hope that we are celebrating a World Championship later tonight! Go Royals!!!

Gary

World Series Game 6 Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Here we go! It’s game 6 of the World Series in Kansas City tonight:

1

This was last night at 10 PM during our newscast on 41 Action News.  The stadium will not be empty for long.  The Royals are in a must win situation, and when they have had their backs against the wall before they have come through. It was four weeks ago today, yes 28 days ago that they trailed 7-3 in the 8th inning against Lester and the Oakland A’s.  I am nervous, but the players seem very confident. It is a big night, and the weather looks great. The wind will likely become calm right around that first pitch at 7:07 PM at the K.

2

Isobars are lines of equal pressure. Each one of the black lines is an isobar, and it will be windy from around Chicago north into Canada around that storm system, but notice how there are no isobars from central Kansas northeast to KC.  This lack of pressure gradient will lead to the ideal baseball conditions tonight, but it will be a bit cool and in the 50s.

3

 

Have a great day!  Go Royals!!!!  If we get to game 7, it will be a bit cooler on Wednesday, but otherwise a nice day once again.

Gary

A Pacific Cold Front

Good Monday bloggers,

On Sunday we missed a record high by 2 degrees as we reached 85°.  Today we will still be well above the average high of 63°.  A cold front will sweep through this evening with a slight chance for a few showers or sprinkles.  The air behind this front is of Pacific origin, not Canadian or Arctic. So, this front will come in and drop our temperatures to where they should be for this time of year.

Here is the map for 5:30 PM today.  We will still be in the 70s with a slight rain chance as the cold front approaches.

1

The front will blow through 6 PM to 8 PM with clouds and perhaps some mist/drizzle behind the front.  Temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the 40s with a northwest breeze of 10-20 mph.  It will be 20 degrees colder than this morning, but the average low is 43°.

2

Tuesday afternoon will be nice with full sunshine and highs right at the average, 63°.  This will lead to great weather for Game 6 of the World Series.

3

Here is the forecast for the World Series:  It is never over until it is over!

2 PM

So, we have had highs in the 80s, The Royals are still playing baseball and Halloween is less than a week away!  This is exciting and odd.  Here is the forecast for trick or treating.  It is really looking good with no chance of rain, a light wind and cool temperatures in the 40s.  The perfect temperatures for wearing a costume and asking for candy!

4

Have a great week ahead and

Let’s Go Royals!

Jeff

 

Near record highs today; small rain chance Monday

Truly an incredible weekend in the Kansas City area weather-wise. A fair amount of sunshine and some warm temperatures. Highs on Sunday were close to records in our area; KCI missed it by just two degrees. These were the highs for our area:
5

And this is how it was around the region. Many locales in Central and Western Kansas set new records today.
3

Tough to believe this is the last week of October! But later on we’ll talk about how that will likely change within a week.

Looking toward Monday, we have a chance for rain. But the models cannot quite agree on what’s going to happen. Right now, the NAM has been aggressive with putting rain and showers in the KC area. However, the RPM and the ECMWF have not been as generous. The midday run o the NAM has now backed off a bit, compared to the morning cousin. Even our in-house Microcast models (provided by our weather vendor) can’t agree on what will happen. That said, this is what the latest version of Powercast thinks the radar will look like Monday afternoon.
1 PM

Given all the info I’ve seen, I think there will be a few showers around but the better chances will be East of about the Independence area. Those near Sedalia and Columbia have a better shot, I think. Still, a sprinkle or two is possible (a chance as we call it) in Kansas City. This is what I’m thinking.
7

When it comes to temperatures, we’ll still be in the 70s for Monday but then level off into the 60s for Tuesday through Thursday. That’s about where we’re supposed to be for this time of year.
2

Halloween and the first couple of day of November will be interesting. Remember yesterday I talked about the cold air the GFS was advertising but also cautioned that it may be “out to lunch”. This morning, the 12z run of the GFS backed off of the really cold air making it to KC (but not by much):
12zGFS

The latest run of the GFS (18z), however, has gone back to putting the cold air more into our area:
18zGFS

Compare those maps to what the GFS was wanting yesterday….(again, all of these maps are for 7am Saturday morning)
7

You can see the overall trend is to keep the core of that cold air over the Western Great Lakes. However, the atmosphere doesn’t always listen to the computer forecast models. We’ll need to keep monitoring this and see if that cold air tries to creep a little more to the West. And again, this is just ONE forecast model. The Euro is already trending with pushing the core of the cold air a little more EAST, which would make things less cold here in the KC area. Once more, we’ll need to keep tabs on this and give you updates.
Either way, Halloween evening will be on the cool side and Saturday morning is going to be cold. Then, the winds should come back around from the South and warm us back up.

Let’s hope the Royals can pull out a big win tonight in San Francisco. They’ll have more wind to deal with. This time, it should be right out of the West and around 10-25mph.
4
Needless to say, it’s going to be interesting.

Hope all of you have a great week. Stick with us on air and online for updates on the rain and the cool spell for next weekend. Jeff Penner will be in for Kalee on Monday morning and then Gary will be in house Monday afternoon. As for me, it’s my weekend Monday and Tuesday. I’ll be back on air Wednesday for our midday newscasts. See ya then!

-JD

Soak in the sun on Sunday; Fall is lurking

Hard to argue with weather this nice for late October. After a foggy start, the sun really did its thing today and helped push our temperatures into the upper 80 degree range. These were the highs around the area today:
5

I think we’ll be even warmer on Sunday. The winds will be stronger as well, out of the South around 15-25 miles per hour and gusts near 30mph at times. All-in-all, it’s going to be a great afternoon but some may argue it’s too warm for this time of year. For those who prefer cooler air, you’re wish will be granted soon enough. Take a look at the temperature trend as we go through the next several days.
2

Notice that sharp drop on Friday? Indications suggest a cold airmass will drop in from Canada and settle in over the Midwest/Great Lakes area. We’d be on the edge of this cold air, but could be enough to get our attention by Saturday morning. If the GFS is correct, this is how the setup would look. Mid to upper 30s to start the day?!
7
Right now, I’ll forecast a morning low of 38° for Saturday. But should that high shift a little more to the West, we may have to drop that temperature. At the same time, that cold air may drift just far enough East where we’re in the low 40s. Either way, it will be chilly. This is why I say, enjoy Sunday as much as you can because true Fall is going to try and come back. That said, the GFS and Euro both indicate the cold air will be pushed out and we’ll start to warm back up by the following Monday.

One key issue to all of this, however, is that there was a major satellite data outage earlier this week. It started on Tuesday and as of Thursday, it has not been fully fixed yet. What does that mean? All of the forecast models we use to forecast the weather require data from the various sensors on the ground (temp/dew point/wind/pressure/etc), but also from data the satellites give us (such has cloud temperatures). When that data is missing, then the big equations that are crunched by the super-computers to output a model forecast can be way off. If you’d like to read more detail on all of this, here’s a good article from the Washington Post.
So we’ll need to see if this sudden shift in the overall weather is bad data from the models, or if the cold is really planning to pay us a visit. I have my suspicions, but these glancing blows tend to happen this time of year.

To focus a little on the short-term, we have a few sports events going on Sunday. Both the Chiefs and Sporting KC will play. If you’re heading to either (or both) games, here’s what you can expect:
6

8

For the Royals tonight in San Francisco, wind could play a factor in their game. Tonight the winds are going to be breezy (on the order of 10-20mph) through the game and blowing out. This may help the ball carry just a bit farther. Here’s an idea of how the winds will blow across the ballpark in San Francisco tonight:
4

I know many will be keeping an eye on the Royals game tonight, so here’s to hoping they do well. I have a feeling this series comes back to KC. But that’s not a bad thing; not at all.

Enjoy the warm and windy Sunday. I’ll have another blog post Sunday evening and we’ll talk more about the spooky Halloween forecast.
-JD

Royals In San Francisco Weather

Good morning bloggers,

While the weather in Kansas City continues to be incredibly nice, there is a storm approaching the west coast. This storm will bring some rain into the San Francisco Bay region with bands of rain and some lingering showers that may impact the World Series game.

6

The weather today looks great, and it will dry out on Sunday. But, in between this system will send most of it’s energy across Oregon and Washington but it will trail southeast into the San Francisco Bay:

8

Have you entered the snowflake contest?  Go to this link on the graphic below and enter. Good luck! There is no sign of any cold air at the moment.

2

 

Have a great weekend! And, Go Royals!  I did write up an important blog on the Weather2020 site discussing the developing winter pattern. It is still very early!

Gary

Morning Showers & Then Very Nice

Good morning bloggers,

The Royals had another great night for baseball on Wednesday, and they celebrated with a huge victory in game two of the World Series. The World Series now shifts west to San Francisco on Friday with today being a travel day. Rain is moving across early this morning:

1

This radar image was from 5:45 AM showing the heaviest downpours approaching the south side of the KC metro area.  The sun will return this afternoon and we will look ahead in an updated blog later today.

2

This picture was taken at the end of the National Anthem last night!  Have a great Thursday!  Go Royals!

Gary