As of this writing, the snow continues to fall at a pretty good clip in a few areas, mainly along and North of I-70.
Here again, notice the darker bands. If those hold together, those would be the areas that see some slightly higher snowfall amounts. There have been some good photos sent to me on Twitter and I made a short video of the snow falling at the studios earlier tonight. See that video here and you can follow me on Twitter to see those photos.
I feel pretty good about the overall snow forecast still.
I do believe there could still be an isolated report of 4″ in a couple locales in the darker shade of blue. I have my “plus two” rule when it comes to snow: there is always an area, somewhere, for some reason, that gets about 2 inches more.
Once more I want to stress how cautious you should be if you’re on the roads tonight. Several accidents in parts of Central & Eastern Kansas already.
One other thing: THE COLD! Oh man, the cold. The winds are picking up and the temps are dropping. Wind chills are going to sting a bit.
Sunshine should return from West to East on Sunday but it is not going to get warm at all. And we’ll keep the wind through the first half of the day. Bundle up if you’ll be headed out.
Jeff is in early Sunday morning and will have a look at radar leftovers and snowfall amounts. Our cut-ins begin at 7am and then 41 Action News Weekend Today starts at 8am. I’m back in for our 5p & 10p newscasts Sunday.
We had some pretty good snow at our studio earlier. I posted a video of it on my Twitter account. Things are easing up now in the Metro, but we’re not done yet…
The darker bands near Topeka are slated to push East and I really think things are still on track for that to arrive around midnight.
Latest guidance still indicating about an inch for Kansas City when all is said and done. There could be a couple of pockets here and there with 1.5″ to 2″, depending on the banding setup.
The NFL game is wrapping up and we’ll be on the air soon with more. We have some reporters out with live shots that you’ll want to see. Snow looks good in a few areas.
Those who have not seen anything yet, hang on. There is still time as that next batch moves through.
Hope you all have an amazing evening and thanks for checking out this blog!
I can see snow falling on our Skyview camera that points to the Plaza tonight….
But when I step out our side door, it hits my suit coat as rain. So were are >>this<< close to a changeover. The latest radar shows it’s trying.
The snow should continue to push in as the night goes on.
Also making its way to the area: the wind. I took a snapshot of the wind speeds at 8p.
I’m willing to bet things are a lot strong around 10p.
Keep in mind that cold air is getting set to invade as well.
To paraphrase David Bowe: get ready for some ch-ch-ch-changes.
The rain & snow continues to move East. Radar algorithm is trying to depict a changeover to snow in the Metro, but reports from those on the ground say it’s still a mix of rain and snow in some areas.
The whole system continues to spin counterclockwise and move East. This means we still have a window to collect snow.
I peeked at the newest runs of the RPM & the HRRR models. They are still suggesting the heavier snow–if you will–moves through around midnight. Overall, I believe the forecast snow amounts I posted earlier are on track. It may pan out that the higher snowfall values are a bit more to the NW than I depicted them. Still, I think the overall theme is in good shape.
The 00z RPM is shown below and gives a simulation of how the radar may look at 11p tonight.
You can see heavier snow being shown in far Northeast Kansas. That would continue to move to the East as the night goes on.
I still expect Kansas City to only pick up an inch to an inch and a half at best. The only way we pick up MORE than that is if a heavier band passes right over us. Right now, I don’t see that happening. Flip-side, should the rain to snow changeover not happen soon enough, it’s quite possible all we get is a glorified dusting. Again, this has never appeared to be a major snowstorm, so there should not be any disappointment in snowfall amounts for the Metro.
PREVIOUS ENTRY – 5:30p
As many have been watching, the main feature we’ve been following for the last few days is now moving into the area. I will admit, there was a lack of overall rain early this morning compared to what I was expecting. That said, my initial thoughts did not include high amounts of rain. Moreover, the main thing many are concerned about is the snowfall. That has been pegged for Saturday evening into Saturday night for a few days now.
You may have heard me say on the air a few times Thursday & Friday that’d need to watch for the dry slot of this system to move in and shutdown any kind of precip for Saturday afternoon. My thought was that we’d see some morning showers, then a dry afternoon with snow developing & moving in for the evening time frame. Well, check out the water vapor from about 2pm…
The red area indicates very dry air and it was right over the area this afternoon.
Now, the main feature is pushing this direction and that will bring moisture along for the ride.
Let’s check out the radar as of 5:30p. You can see how things match up with the water vapor:
I feel that we’ll see light rain and drizzle move into the greater Metro area around 7p or so tonight (that could mix with some wet snowflakes). Then, any rain should change over to snow around between the 8-10pm hours as the bigger swath of snow moves in. The latest HRRR short-range, high-resolution model picks up on this very well, showing a heavier band of snow right at 9pm.
Based on all the short-range snowfall guidance I’ve seen today (RAP, HRRR, RPM), we’re still on track with the overall snow forecast I talked about during the midday news on Friday. I personally do not see Kansas City picking up more than an inch to an inch and a half. I do still feel there will be a thin band of slighter higher snowfall just to the North & West of the area. So, here is the current snowfall forecast:
There will likely be some pockets of slightly higher snowfall embedded in each zone, that’s a given. It all that depends on the “banding” and overall strength of the smaller-scale aspect to the system. You can see some bands already showing up on radar right now…
In Wichita tonight, a band moved over and dropped two inches of snow in just an hour. So we need to keep this in mind, because there will likely be one or two areas that pick up some snowfall on the higher end of the scale. But to step back a bit, the idea here is that we’ll see a few inches of snow out of this. It will not be a “major snow storm” per se, nor a situation to hunker down and start lighting your books on fire to survive.
This also goes to show that just because a system comes up out of the Desert Southwest, doesn’t mean we’re promised to get a big snowstorm. Never promise anything when it comes to weather!
For those curious, here are the three short-range models and their snowfall outputs, ending at 6am Sunday:
RAP Snowfall output
HRRR Snowfall output
RPM Snowfall output
You can clearly see the trend to put the slightly higher band right through the Northeast tip of Kansas.
In my forecast, I have shifted this just a bit South, simply based on radar trends and a nagging feeling in my gut.
One thing I still want to stress: Please be careful if you’ll be out on the roads tonight. Slick spots could appear quickly, especially when that rain changes over to snow.
I have a feeling we may be talking about a few accidents on the news later tonight.
The winds will pick up as the snow moves in as well. Add that to the incoming cold air and it’s going to be pretty raw by the morning. Make sure you’re ready!
We have an NFL playoff football game on TV tonight, so our 10pm newscasts will be delayed; it’s possible we’re not on the air until 11pm.
I will update this blog post tonight as needed, so keep checking back in. You can also watch our web forecast videos on KSHB.com and get the free KSHB app as well.
Stay warm and be safe tonight,
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