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Scattered Thunderstorms Later Tonight-Wednesday Morning

Good evening bloggers,

A summer cold front is on it’s way south.  Here is the forecast for around 5:45 AM:

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We have very rarely not had significant thunderstorms, so tonight will be interesting to watch unfold. The forcing is weaker due to the anticyclone located over Oklahoma and Texas. We are on the periphery of this clockwise circulation but the heights are close to being as high as they have been all summer long. The jet stream is now at it’s weakest average strength of the year and it is playing tricks with our wet summer weather pattern. It will be tested tonight, and during the next week.  For tonight the front will likely move through after midnight with scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms likely. If they are “widely” scattered that means they are less numerous. I will go over the details on 41 Action News.

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It is dangerously hot this evening, and as you can see heat is the #1 weather related killer.  Drink plenty of water. It will cool off tomorrow. Have a great night.

Gary

Heat Relief Arrives Tonight

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are in for another ridiculously hot day with highs in the mid to upper 90s and dew points well into the 70s.  This will make afternoon heat index values 105°-115° with a few spots getting close to 120°.  Then, a cold front arrives tonight with a chance of thunderstorms followed by some refreshing summer air.  Lets go through the weather changes.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM:

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HIGHS TODAY: It will reach the mid to upper 90s, low 90s in spots

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HEAT INDEX FORECAST TODAY: When you combine highs in the mid to upper 90s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s you get a dangerous situation as the heat index rises to 110°, give or take 5 degrees.  Some spots may touch 120°.  Remember, the dew point is the temperature at which the air must cool to reach 100% humidity.  So, today it will have to drop to about 78° for that.   That means there is quite a bit of water in the air.

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TUESDAY 5 PM: A cold front will be approaching from the west with a cooler and much less humid air mass headed our way.  The south winds will be meeting the north winds along the front.  This is where the thunderstorms will form later today.  Some of the thunderstorms may contain quarter sized hail and wind gusts over 60 mph.

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SEVERE RISK TODAY:  The slight risk is mostly for Iowa where the flow is stronger.  We could see some heavy downpours.  We are in a marginal risk of a severe thunderstorm tonight.

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WEDNESDAY 1 AM: The thunderstorms will be getting their act together from Manhattan to northern Missouri.  This would mean a dry evening in KC, dry for the big One Direction concert.  We will watch this closely as things can evolve faster than the computer models say.

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WEDNESDAY 3 AM:  This is the best chance of thunderstorms for our area.  Very heavy rain (possible flash flooding) and frequent lightning will be the main threat.  One or two thunderstorms could produce quarter sized hail and a wind gusts over 60 mph.  Between 3 AM and 8 AM the thunderstorms will move south and fall apart, so the Wednesday morning rush hour looks mostly dry with perhaps a lingering downpour.  The roads may be wet, depending on how much rain we see overnight.

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WEDNESDAY PM: This is the good news.  A big surface high pressure will be over Nebraska bringing a cooler and much less humid air mass our way from the north.  The sun will be out as well, which means we are in for a wonderful Wednesday.

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WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGHS: : Highs will be in the mid 80s with dew points in the 60s.  This will feel so much better.  So, instead of the temperature having to drop in to the upper 70s to reach 100% humidity, the temperature will have to drop in to the low to mid 60s, much less water in the air.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

Clouds Affect Us Again Today…..Excessive Heat Warning

Good Monday bloggers,

11:50 AM Update:

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Here is a picture I took just before noon as altocumulus clouds were increasing across our sky. This will be yet another way to keep our temperatures a bit cooler than they could have been. Tuesday should be a big warm-up ahead of a mid-week cool down as Jeff wrote about below. I will go over the details at 4, 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.

Jeff’s entry below:

We are in an Excessive Heat Warning today.  The official warning resides along the state line with a Heat Advisory surrounding the warning.  To be perfectly honest the area in the Heat Advisory will be just as hot as the areas in the warning.  Actually, the humidity may be higher in the rural areas as there will be tremendous evapotranspiration from the crops.

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HEAT INDEX FORECAST: You can see the heat index forecast.  This model does have the highest readings over northern Missouri.  All areas may touch 110°-120° at anytime this afternoon.  Drink plenty of water, wear light weight, light colored clothing and make sure the kids and pets are out of the car when you are.

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5 PM TODAY: There is relief in sight.  A decent cold front will be located in the Rockies later today with some snow possible above 7-9 thousand feet in Yellowstone park.

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY:  The best chance of severe weather today is weather the much cooler air is interacting with the summer heat and humidity.  This area resides in the northern Plains.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The cold front will be approaching as we have highs well into the 90s.  Nebraska and northwest Kansas will have highs in the 70s and 80s with, most importantly lower humidity.  Our best chance of thunderstorms this week will be later Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the cold front arrives.  Wednesday and Thursday will see highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s by Thursday (lower humidity).  So, the heat index today will be around 110°, give or take 5 degrees.  The low by Thursday will be in the 60s which means it will feel 50 degrees colder Thursday morning than it will this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

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Have a great week.

Jeff

Intense heat to start the week

Not a good time to be without air conditioning or ice cream. The next couple of days will be a lot like today: hot and humid!
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Dew point values will be stuck in the middle to upper 70s, and that’s going to make the air feel quite oppressive.
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Checking out the radar & satellite, we’re under a bit of a weak ridge aloft. The overall flow is taking things up and over our area.
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So with that going on, we’re just going to sweat it out for a couple of days.
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Now that said, we do have a chance for rain by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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A cold front will drop into the area and this should touch off some thunderstorms. Along with this front, some slightly cooler air enters the picture. Highs should fall into the upper 80s. Yeah, not much of a drop in temperature but we’ll take any relief we can get.
After Wednesday, indications are that we’ll remain dry until Sunday. Of course, this has been the season where we cannot seem to go more than two or three days without some kind of rain, so we’ll see if that holds true!

In the meantime, grab that ice cream, crank up the fan, and try to stay cool!
Sun

-JD

Severe weather threat this evening

Update – 3:25pm
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As expected, we have a watch in place until 10pm tonight.
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Primary threat will be high wind near 70mph. That’s due simply to the extreme heat we have today. Other threat include hail near quarter size and very heavy rain. I cannot rule out a tornado warning or two before sunset. This would be somewhere along the surface boundary, which is very close to I-70. Again, find a way to get warning alerts when they are issued… our Storm Shield app is a great place to start.

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Not good news for Royals fans… it’s looking more and more like we’ll have thunderstorms in the KC area this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center’s afternoon update still includes us in a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for this afternoon/evening.
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Based on radar trends alone, I would suspect we’ll have rain & t-storms in the area by about 7pm tonight.
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Looking at the visible satellite, clouds to the North of I-70 (along with leftover rain showers) have led to a stable atmosphere. However, in the sunshine South of I-70, the atmosphere is becoming very unsettled.
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Just checking the temps alone, you can tell there is a stark boundary in place over the area.
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Add in the high dew points, and we’ve got several key ingredients for thunderstorms this evening. Our Powercast model has done a great job on picking up on the activity going on now. Other models like the NAM have completely missed out on what’s currently happening. So, that said, I think the Powercast (RPM) is on the right track when it suggests this by 7pm tonight:
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As of this blog writing (3:05pm), there are no watches in place. However, I suspect we’ll be placed in a watch soon that will likely include most of Eastern Kansas and a good amount of Western Missouri. Thus, it will likely include the KC Metro area. I would suspect this watch would go until 10pm.
Once one is issued, I will update this blog.

I encourage you or anyone you know that will be outside tonight, to have a way to get warning information when it’s issued. Also remember that you can watch our newscasts live online at KSHB.com.

Quickly looking ahead: I think we keep the heat going for Sunday through Tuesday. However, I am not seeing big chances for rain (outside of Sunday morning into early afternoon). There should be a cold front that drops into the area on Wednesday, giving us a chance for morning showers and “cooling” us off into the 80s for Wed/Thurs.

Be safe tonight and remember to stay weather aware.
-JD

And the Beat Goes On…Heat, Humidity, Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

The weather issues we face today are the same issues that we have been dealing with all summer.  We have a Heat Advisory in effect and a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

HEAT ADVISORY & OZONE ALERT: The heat advisory is in effect for mostly I-70 south as rain cooled air and clouds will keep it cooler north.

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There is an Ozone Alert for elevated pollution levels.  However, an outflow boundary came through at about 5 AM (the thin green line).  This emanated from the thunderstorms across northern Missouri and was rain cooled air.  This may help the pollution issue.

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So, with the outflow boundary near by, and a new disturbance coming in from northwest Kansas we will have to watch for thunderstorms to form this evening to our northwest.  Some of the thunderstorm may produce a 60 mph wind gust or higher and quarter sized hail.  The main threat will be flash flooding.

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5 PM TODAY:  Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with high humidity.  Thunderstorms may get going in northeast Kansas and we will have to watch these for the evening.  This could impact the Royals game.  In rain areas, temperatures will drop to the 70s.  So, keep an eye to the sky if you are out and about this evening.

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HEAT INDEX FORECAST:  Values will reach 105°-110° before any cooling thunderstorms form.  Drink plenty of water.  I was at the Royals game last night and we were all dripping just standing around.

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EVENING FORECAST:  If you are headed to tonight game, take an umbrella and be prepared for a delay.  The chance of rain is 30-40%.

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Have a great weekend and meteorologist JD Rudd will have an update later today.  You can see updates all day online at www.kshb.com/weather.

Jeff

The heat gets set to return

By late July standards, these last couple of days have been rare. We have struggled this afternoon just to get above 80°! The 4:30pm temperatures around the area are not bad at all.
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Looking over the last ten days, we have seen our share of ups and downs in the temperature department. It has not been warmer than 90° since Friday .
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Hopefully you have made the most of the nice weather, especially these last two days . Temperatures will now climb as we move toward the weekend.
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With the temps moving up, that also means our dew points will climb. This, in turn, means we’re going to sweat a little bit more.
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When it comes to rain chances, this continues to be the summer of “any excuse will do”. While nothing appears to jump out at us at this time, there are small chances for rain. Likely we’ll go back to the pattern of rain in the morning and then hot/humid in the afternoon. So not a washout, but chances of rain will be there.
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As you can see, nothing looks definite… just chances for rain here and there. Again, odds on favor indicate those would be primarily morning showers. And it’s not like we’re hurting for rain–something I don’t recall I’ve ever said in July before! As of today, we’re riding above the monthly average.
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To those making plans tonight, hopefully you do something outdoors. Take this in! We’ll all be sweating our faces off again before too long.
-JD

55 days of rain since May 1, 2015

Good evening bloggers,

What a summer so far. Now, you wouldn’t know this if we watched any national news outlet today. 16 million people are apparently in the path of this “heat wave”. What? Yes, and then I saw that Dallas was 95° today, and it was 91° in North Carolina. Oh my! Wow, that is ridiculous. Not!  What is going on with all of this, it sort of drives me nuts and makes me not even pay attention.  And, we are in the media. Our weather team tries very hard to just tell you what is happening, and what is going to happen without sensationalizing.  95° in Dallas is nothing unusual at all! The high temperature in Kansas City today was 80°. And, the Eat Outside Index (EOI) was a nearly perfect 10 this evening. I am going to get my car washed in my dinner hour, and possibly get a bite to eat outside.  We hope you are enjoying this cooler and less humid stretch. It won’t last for long.

We are into our second full month of summer (astronomical summer) now, and almost two full months into, what is called, meteorological summer.  If you go back one more month we can see it has now rained 55 of the last 82 days.  Here are the monthly calendars:

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So far this month we have now gone over 5″ of rain.  Here is the July total as of this morning:

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We are in the part of the pattern that produced the wet storm that washed out the Royals/Orioles game in October. That was game 3 of the ALCS, and 281 days later we had the 1 to 4″ deluge over the south metro area yesterday morning. It is not a coincidence. This pattern continues to produce rain, and it likely will not be ending any time soon. The jet stream is lifting farther north and weakening. This will limit severe weather risks for a while, and believe me our weather team needs this break. We have had more tornadoes in the past two weeks than I can remember, perhaps since the May 4th to 8th week in 2003. It’s summer, but summer has yet to settle in . I thought there would be two chances for a heat wave, one which passed by in June, and one coming up next month. So far we have avoided a three day stretch of 95 degrees.

We have a disturbance approaching our area and there is a warm front to our south. This will likely lead to another complex of thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday. We will try to pick out the most likely spot to have this system. It appears that it will be south of I-70 once again.

Have a great night.

Gary

Another Heavy Rain Event

Good Monday bloggers,

Last night was crazy between 4 AM and 6 AM as very heavy thunderstorms pounded areas south of the river with rainfall rates of 2-3″ per hour.  This is just the latest in what seems like an endless stretch of torrential rain events.  Below I will show the 5 day totals estimated by radar.

RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT:  Note, most of the rain fell in 1 hour!

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RAINFALL TOTAL LAST NIGHT, RADAR ESTIMATED:  Just north of Olathe there is an orange shade, 5-8″!  Likely closer to 5″.

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RAINFALL TOTALS LAST 5 DAYS, RADAR ESTIMATED:  Wow!   Some areas south of Maryville have seen over 10″!  This is likely causing major crop losses.  Northern Missouri has taken a beating this last week.

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RAINFALL TOTALS LAST 5 DAYS, RADAR ESTIMATED, CLOSER IN:

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Now, what is next?  The rain is pretty much over for today.  You cannot rule out a few new thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas and western Missouri as a weak cold front pushes in.  The main show later today will be tied to the vort max that created the thunderstorms around here this morning along with a weak surface trough.  They will be  located over southeast Missouri today and that is where the Storm Prediction Center has moved the the slight risk.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY:

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TUESDAY:  This will be a calm and nice day with highs in the low to mid 80s.  A surface high pressure will be located over northwest Iowa, delivering a more stable air mass into the area.

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WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:  You know we can’t go more than two days without thunderstorms.  A front will be stalled across southern Kansas and Oklahoma.  It will return north as a warm front as a new disturbance tracks east from the Rockies.  This will likely trigger more thunderstorms in central Kansas later Wednesday.  These will then have the chance to head into eastern Kansas and western Missouri later Wednesday night and early Thursday with more heavy rain, unbelievable.

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Have a great week and “Turn Around Don’t Drown.”

Jeff

A break from the heat but not the rain

***Update 9pm***
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Just took a peek at the newest forecast information and I have to admit: I like what I’m seeing. That means: I *agree* with what it’s spitting out now. Previously, I was not too sold on the Powercast model. I felt it was not handling the overnight rain well (mainly because it said there wasn’t any!).
Now, the newest version is in. It shows the overnight rain…
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That rain should taper off by about midday. I still think many of us will get through the afternoon dry.

That said, I do still think we have to be on our toes for some afternoon pop-up showers and t-storms.
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Severe threat is still very low for Monday. That’s not to say we won’t get some good claps of thunder in the morning. Don’t be surprised if you jump a few times!
Stay with our weather team and we’ll keep you posted. Enjoy the rest of your night!
-JD

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I almost feel like I could copy a number of previous blog posts word-for-word and it would fit perfectly for tomorrow’s weather!
Before we get to that, let’s check the rearview mirror and see where we have been.

Rain & thunderstorms developed overnight into this morning right where they were supposed to: Northern Missouri. Also as anticipated, some hefty rainfall amount were realized in that same area.
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Of course, your backyard measuring device may vary just a bit.

At this point, I do not see anything new developing in our area this evening. But once we get into the overnight period, we could see a few showers try to develop. Based on the newest information, we may wind up dealing with rain Monday afternoon as well. But… I’m not 100% sold on that.

Latest powercast is persistent on bubbling up rain and a few thunderstorms after about 3pm Monday. Until then, it says we get nothing. I don’t buy that.
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It lingers that action in our area through about 8p before it finally slides off to the South.
My gut tells me that the model has the right idea (kinda), but the execution may be a little off. We saw this with the guidance yesterday. What this means is, just because the above image shows rain in Northeast Kansas at 5:30pm, I don’t think that placement is set in stone. Even the timing is suspect to me.

My thought: we’ll get some rain overnight into the early morning hours of Monday. It will move from West to East across the area. Heavy rain pockets would not surprise me at all.
Then showers should linger in the mid-morning before another round could try to develop in the mid-afternoon. Those could wind up being very hit and miss. I’d be concerned about flooding in a few locales, simply due to the amount of water we’ve seen over the last couple of days.
I do think we shake the rain by the evening. So for the Royals game, I do NOT believe we’ll have a washout. More on that in a second.

A flash flood watch is in place for overnight tonight into Monday to account for those areas already dealing with the soggy sod.
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I think that will be our biggest concern overall Monday: flooding. The overall severe weather threat is low… no organized hail/wind/tornado outbreaks are expected tonight or Monday.

Checking the ol’ water gauge for KCI, we’re getting close to hitting the average value for July.
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If it’s any consolation prize, we should get a break from the heat and high humidity as we start the week. We’ll be about three to seven degrees below average.
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I am sure many will be heading out to watch the Royals take on the Pirates tomorrow night. I have to allow for the chance of rain for the first part of the game, but at this time, I do not believe we’re in for a washout. That said, I will be at the game myself, so should we get a long rain delay, you can blame me in person!
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Quickly looking ahead: I think we see more rain for Wednesday night into Thursday and then spotty chances for Friday-Sunday. The heat will return as well by the end of the week. If you drink the GFS Kool-Aid, it’s going to be blazing hot by next weekend. That model claims we’ll see highs around 101 both days. I’m not sold on that yet. The other medium-range model, the Euro, says we have morning showers Sat/Sun and highs only in the middle 90s to upper 80s. That seems to fit the overall pattern we’ve dealt with this season so I’d lean that way.

In the meantime, plan for some more rain on Monday. Seems we cannot go more than two or three days tops without some rain in the area!
-JD