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White Christmas and Cold Intensification

Merry Christmas bloggers,

Snowfall amounts were as predicted, 1/2″ to 1″ with some locations just over 1″.  Trenton, MO received 3.2″ and this is where we expected the heavier snow. Now, did the snowflake contest end? Remember, there needs to be 1″ of snow at 41 Action News as measured by one of our meteorologists.   I was the meteorologist with the ruler at the station and well…

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We measured 0.8″ of snow here on the Plaza, so the Snowflake Contest rolls on. Gary measured 1.3″ in Overland Park and the National Weather Service measured 1.1″ in Pleasant Hill. So, what is going on? Well take a look at these radar images and it explains why the Plaza had about 0.5″ less.

Around 350 AM as the main heavy band of snow was moving across the city you can see the heavier snow is split around the Plaza with heavier snow showers from southern Platte/Clay and southern Johnson counties.

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Then, by 405 AM the heavier snow connected, but east of the Plaza, so this really shows why the Plaza had a bit less. Also, the snow was moving east at 70-80 mph, if it was moving at 60 mph then the Plaza would have had the extra 0.5″ regardless.

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Now, we turn our attention to an increase in the cold and new small snow chances.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny and cold with highs in the 20s. Wind chills will be in the teens.

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CHRISTMAS NIGHT: The kids should be sound asleep as Santa arrives in KC. Temperatures will be in the teens, so Santa will feel right at home. The wind will be west at 5-15 mph.

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CHRISTMAS MORNING: This will be a great morning to stay inside and open presents as it will be mostly cloudy and dry with temperatures 10° to 15° with a 5-15 mph wind and wind chill values near zero.

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CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON: A legitimate Arctic front will be moving across the region. We will see highs around 30°, but look at Omaha, 14°, how about a high of -3° in Rochester, MN. There will be many clouds, but dry.

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TUESDAY MORNING: Eek! It is going to be very cold with lows around 10°. If it clears lows may drop to 5°.  Look at Omaha, -1° and Rochester, MN, -10°. Flurries are possible, but we do not expect any measurable snow. We do need to watch this for a dusting.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The sky will clear, but highs will struggle to 20°. Highs along I-80 from Omaha to Chicago will struggle to 10° despite sunshine. Rochester, MN will have another day with highs below zero.

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So, the weather pattern for the last week of 2017 is evolving in to one in which we will have blasts of Arctic air as disturbances race in from the west-northwest. This sets us up for two to three chances of small snow systems. They are timed for Thursday and Saturday as it stands now. We still have to watch the Tuesday set up.

Here is our latest forecast for the total snowfall potential the next seven days. You can see, it is not much, but we have to watch the systems at the end of the week for more potential.

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Merry Christmas!

Please don’t drink and drive

Jeff Penner

A Fast Moving Band Of Snow On Christmas Eve

Good early morning bloggers,

We are now done with looking at models. Well, most of you are likely asleep as it is 2:30 AM.  Snow is about to start falling in Kansas City for the first time this season. It isn’t quite a Christmas miracle, but I will take it.  I just glanced at the models to see where the vorticity was located, and we are lucky to be getting what we are getting. The new “vort max” is forecast to develop over eastern Kansas and western Missouri between now and 10 AM, and then zip east over Missouri and out into the eastern states later today. This transition is different than what was being forecast, and as I said, we are just fortunate to be getting this early morning snow at all. It will move by fast.  Here is the 2:20 AM radar image:

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Here is the 2:40 AM Radar, as we are about to see our first snowflakes:

Screen Shot 2017-12-24 at 2.38.49 AM

I will check in later after I get Sunny The Weather Dog up and out for a walk in search of the first snowflake.  Have a good morning. And, go to Weather2020.com to join in the conversation over there.

Gary

To Dream or Not to Dream of a “White Christmas?”

Good Saturday bloggers,

Well, here we are on the doorstep of Christmas and it looks like we will not have to dream of a “White Christmas!” A series of disturbances will be tracking out of the Rockies, consolidating to one main disturbance as they move east across our region. Based on the current track of the system it looks like the KC area will be on the southern edge of the accumulating snow. In order for there to be a legitimate “White Christmas” we are going to need at least 1/2″ of snow as anything less could sublime before Christmas day. Sublime means the snow evaporates going from the solid to gas state.

Let’s go through the time line and then the latest forecast for amounts.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: It will be dry with increasing clouds as highs climb to the upper 20s and low 30s.

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6 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT: It will be a dry, cloudy and cold evening in KC with snow increasing across Nebraska, Iowa and far northern Missouri. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s.

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MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM SUNDAY: The snow will be increasing from northwest to southeast and moving into KC. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s, so any snow will stick to all surfaces.

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3 AM TO 6 AM SUNDAY: This is the most likely time frame for the most snow to occur in the KC area. There will be heavier snow showers embedded in light to moderate snow. Temperatures will stay in the low to mid 20s with a 10-15 mph north wind, so wind chills will be in the single digits.

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6 AM TO 9 AM SUNDAY: The snow will be shifting east and likely ending in KC by 9-10 AM. Temperatures will be in the low 20s with wind chill values near zero as north winds blow at 10-20 mph.

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6 AM TO 9 AM SUNDAY: This data has the snow over by 8 AM as the system races east and cold air pours south.

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9 AM TO NOON SUNDAY: The snow will be over and the sky will be clearing from west to east with temperatures in the teens and low 20s. So, if you are headed out to Arrowhead it is going to be very cold with wind chill values around zero in the morning and single digits in the afternoon. Sunday afternoon will be mostly sunny with highs 25°-30°.

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How much snow will occur on your yard or farm?

SNOWFALL FORECAST KC (NORTH I-70): As is, we are expecting slightly over an inch north of I-70.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST KC (SOUTH I-70): At this time it looks like slightly under and inch. What does this mean for the Snowflake Contest? Well, it has to snow 1″, as measured by one of our 41 Action News meteorologists, at our studio on the Plaza. So, if this verifies, we may come up short.  It is going to be a close call.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST REGION: It still looks like a band of 2″ to 3″ of snow will occur along the Missouri-Iowa border with 1″ to 2″ between that band and I-70. A dusting to 1″ is possible south of I-70. This can still shift south or north by 50 miles, so it is not quite set in stone. But, it looks like a “White Christmas” is likely for most locations in our viewing area.

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Merry Christmas! Please don’t drink and drive.

Jeff Penner

What Are The Trends: Drought & Snow

Good morning bloggers,

It’s the Friday before Christmas. It isn’t quite beginning to look a lot like Christmas, but in some areas it may very well be by early Christmas Eve morning.  Here is the European Model forecast from last night. This model shifted the snow a bit farther north, but it doesn’t mean it is exactly right. This band could shift even farther north, or it could shift a bit farther south. We will be monitoring this closely as we move into Saturday night. I will provide updates on the blog, Facebook, and Twitter as this chance of snow approaches.  In today’s blog I will discuss a little of the meteorology behind tracking this snow potential.

Euro Snow

What is going to cause this little band of snow? Take a look at the wave we are tracking:

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Look at the X over Oklahoma, and the X near Seattle. These are called “vort maxes”, or the area of maximum vorticity. As a “vort max” approaches, you will have what is called PVA, Positive Vorticity Advection, and this causes the air to rise.  Watch where this is forecast to track:

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This second map, above, shows the storm missing KC to the south in northwest Arkansas, and the storm approaching from the northwest. Look at what happens next, by 3 PM Saturday:

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The first storm is a rapidly exiting “short wave” that you can see by looking again at the “vort max” moving over the eastern states.  And, then you can see the  system tracking southeast across Idaho, where they have set records for snowfall to start the season.  If this wave gets absorbed into the flow, then our chance of snow will go “poof”.  This next map shows the latest NAM model forecast valid Christmas Eve at midnight, 24 hours before Santa arrives:

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Precipitation Type Forecast Valid 3 AM Christmas Eve:

Screen Shot 2017-12-22 at 8.22.12 AM

Now, here is the problem for Kansas City:

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The heaviest snow will fall along and just north of the vorticity maximum’s path. Look at where it is forecast to be at 6 AM Christmas Eve. If this is right, then the KC metro area will have 2″ north side to 1″ south side, with barely a dusting one county away.  Think about this; one county away there could be nothing. What if this system goes just a bit farther north. Do you see where we could have a frustrating problem?

Either way, this is a small little system that may produce 0.22″ maximum along its path. This is a fast moving and very small storm system. This is increasingly becoming alarming when you look at the developing dry conditions:

Drought

We have another day and a half to track this. I know a lot of you just look at the precipitation totals. Look at the deeper meteorology behind what produces the precipitation. If this X tracks farther north do not get your hopes up, but if it tracks a bit farther south, then we are certainly going to be in this. If this one misses us, and some of the KC viewing area will likely get misses, then what is next? It is a dry pattern that has yet to break.

Have a great day everyone. Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog there to join in the conversation, or follow what others are saying. We will have a good discussion as this system approaches. My expectations are already a bit lower than yesterday as I know the cut-off line from snow to no snow is rather close to KC. I am hoping for a slightly farther south track and not a slightly farther north track. We will discuss on 41 Action News tonight.

Gary

So, You’re Saying There Is A Chance

Good morning bloggers,

Winter begins at 10:28 AM central time this morning!  A weak storm is splitting as it moves out into the plains the next two days. One part is going north and falling apart, while a second part is going well to the south. This will leave Kansas City with only a slight chance of any measurable rain or snow again.

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Kansas City Holiday Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a chance of some light drizzle. The chance of measurable rain is 10%.  The wind will shift to the northeast later today at 5-10 mph.   High:  49°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy with a north breeze at 5 mph. High:  35°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late. High:  32°
  • Christmas Eve:  There is a 40% chance of light snow early.   We are still monitoring closely for any realistic chance of any accumulation and this is being discussed in today’s blog. High:  30°
  • Christmas Day:  Partly cloudy with a a few snow showers possible.  High:  36°

Weather Discussion:

The models have been rather frustrating to monitor if you are near KC.  I have yet to make a prediction for a chance of a dusting to an inch of snow.  This may change within hours as the data is close to convincing me that there is a chance of a little band of snow near KC Saturday night into early Christmas Eve. Here are the models to monitor today:

  • NAM Model: This comes out in the next few minutes and I will add my thoughts on what it shows soon. This model came out dry! This is due to the smoothing of every wave, phasing into the flow.
  • GFS Model: This has been the best model this season as it has not been showing many chances at all of any snow or rain in the first five to seven days. The chances are always around seven to ten days away or longer.
  • The European Model: This model has been the most aggressive on snow chances in the past few weeks, but even this model hasn’t had many of these chances and they are also almost always seven to ten days away.  The trend on this model has been consistently showing 1 to 4 inches of snow near KC early on Christmas Eve.
  • The Canadian Model: This model has had snow modeled around early Christmas Eve for around seven days now, but it has gone from accumulations down to just barely a dusting

Today:

Kansas City is not alone when it comes to the lack of any snow to start the season:

DQ0WowzWsAAy1MP.jpg-large

Some of these cities may get their first inch in the next 18 hours.  But, KC will be left snowless once again. Here is the precipitation type forecast valid at 6 PM this evening:

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Tonight’s storm system is splitting into pieces with the northern piece zipping northeast and weakening on Friday, with a hang back southern piece reorganizing, Let’s take a look.

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This map, above, shows the northern system all sheared out, stretch out as it tracks over the Great Lakes. This system basically falls apart as there is no PVA, Positive Vorticity Advection left due to the shearing out, and thus very limited rising motion. The southern system, on the other hand, is reorganizing and this will begin to produce some lifting to create areas of mostly rain over the southern states, but this system is also forecast to phase into the flow over the eastern part of the nation. Then, look up to the northwest. This energy is what we are monitoring closely for Saturday night into early Christmas Eve morning.

4What happens next may “drive us crazy”.  The southern storm system will have organized by 6 PM Friday, when this map verifies. And, the northern system is strong. If you were to show me just this forecast map weeks, months ago, I would tell you, “if there is cold air available, then KC is about to have snow likely”, from the southern system alone.  But, this system is in this years cycling pattern and we have already experienced similar systems that have just barely fallen short from becoming a more legitimate storm system. I know, what did I just say? Bottom line: it doesn’t and won’t quite do it for eastern Kansas. So, we will concentrate on that wave of energy up north.

This is the wave of energy that will be acting on a rather decently strong baroclinic zone. What is a baroclinic zone? This is a tight temperature contrast zone, or really a frontal zone, a front that may be above the surface and not quite at the surface.

5This next forecast map, from this mornings NAM model, shows the southern storm phasing into the flow, and the northern wave still holding together. For KC to receive snow, we just need this northern wave to hold together and track overhead Saturday night and early Sunday morning and then the European Model forecast of 1 to 4 inches could verify. But, will it? This is the problem. The GFS continuously phases every wave together, right at the perfect time to produce nothing but maybe flurries. But, why does this model have to be right? Every chance we have had thus far, the GFS model has been the right one in modeling NOTHING. Will this happen again, or will we break the ice?

So, yes, I am saying there is a chance. Until we do break the ice and see our first dusting, I am really getting “gun shy” on making any bold prediction. Next week’s storm? Well, we will look into this later. As I have been saying. Something has to give.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020 and join in the conversation. Have a great Thursday.

Gary

The Pattern Continues To Do Everything To Miss KC

Good morning bloggers,

This is a later blog post as many of you likely realize I am a bit overwhelmed, and overjoyed, at the response to my personal statement on Facebook.  I came out of the closet, per say, but I have been out anyway, just not publicly. Go and read the entry on Facebook for more, and you can leave a comment there, or in the Weather2020 blog if you would like. Why is it important to come out? For me, it is to allow me to no longer “hide” on the air, and to be able to help be a role model and lead in this area where it is still a difficult journey for so many finding out about themselves, and for the parents dealing with learning and how to cope with this “stigma” that society still has.  Anyway, onto the weather.

The weather pattern is just “ridiculous” when it comes to having any excitement near Kansas City. As we have been showing, KC is not alone as there are other places around the nation also experiencing rather boring weather results. Just look at this forecast from the latest GFS model:

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This is the forecast for Saturday night as we move into Christmas Eve. An upper high is forecast to be closing over northwest Canada and northern Alaska. That deep trough is forming over Hudson Bay. And, yes, another ridge on the west coast.  There will be a breakthrough storm, however, and it is right on schedule according to the LRC, This breakthrough storm will have to be watched for New Year’s week.  If it does EXACTLY what happened in the last cycle, then there will be a storm moving out into the plains, but warmer air would be drawn into KC. But, if there is just one colder twist to the pattern, then next week could finally break the ice.

Have a great day!

Gary

Take A Look At The Cycling Pattern: The LRC Moving Into The End Of 2017

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Holiday Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today:  Fog and low clouds most of the morning. There should be some clearing, but remember, this is one of the shortest days of  the year for daylight, from sunrise to sunset, as winter begins Thursday.  Light winds will become northeasterly around 10 mph later in the day.  High:  49°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy and mild.  Light east wind shifting to the southeast later in the day.  High:  47°
  • Thursday:  Increasing clouds with a chance of sprinkles.  High:  57°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy. High:  35°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy. High:  31°
  • Christmas Eve:  Cloudy with a chance of snow showers or flurries.  High:  25°
  • Christmas Day:  Partly cloudy with a a few snow showers possible.  High:  23°

We are now just six days from Christmas Day and there are still a few uncertainties about the holiday forecast.  For Kansas City, we are still waiting for our first inch of snow, but we are still far from alone.  Omaha, Des Moines, Goodland, Dodge City, and Wichita, KS are also still waiting.

The Cycling Pattern:

The weather pattern has settled into a roughly 47-day cycle, likely in a 43 to 51 day cycle, as we have been describing to you for the past few weeks. Our initial forecast cycle length in October of 45 days or so seems to have worked by using a harmonic fluctuation technique.  The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC. If the pattern was cycling in the 60-day range, then harmonic fluctuations would be a 30-day half harmonic, a 15-day quarter harmonic and so on. So, if it is indeed 47 days, then 23.5 days would be a half harmonic, 15.7 days would be a one third harmonic, and this is what we used early on. I used a 15-day harmonic to find the cycle.  I know; pretty complex isn’t it. But, just know that it did seem to work.  Now, take a look at 47 days before Wednesday, November 3, and how it lines up with December 2o, 2017, or 47 days apart:

LRC COMPARISON Cycles 2 & 3 2017_2018

The storm coming into the Pacific northwest is lining up almost perfectly with how it lined up 47 days earlier. Look at features numbered 1 through 5.  This is actually a rather incredible exhibit of this years pattern.  So, why is it not quite coming together once again for Kansas City?

How does this all tie together into the bigger picture? Remember, it is not just this one snapshot in time, a great comparison for sure, but it is the entire weather pattern that is cycling. Each complete 47-day cycle will continue to repeat through winter, spring, and summer.

Today’s Weather Video:

The Cycling Weather Pattern as of December 19, 2017 from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

In this video, I am trying to show you this part of the pattern and showcase one of the reasons why it is a struggle for the models to develop any storm that will impact KC in this part of the pattern. Oh, yes, I have known this, but there are always some twists and turns, seasonal differences to the pattern, that provide hope for something different to happen. Overall, however, as we are experiencing, the same things seem to keep happening. This could all change New Year’s week, but it also could warm up? If there is enough cold air available, it just may come through for KC before the year is out.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020 and click on the blog over there to join in and share in this weather experience.  I will discuss all of this on 41 Action News tonight.

Gary

Three Strikes And You’re Out

Good morning bloggers,

I titled this blog entry “Three Strikes And You’re Out” because one of our models continues to swing and miss when it comes to storm systems near KC.  The GFS model is the one model that has no snow on Christmas Eve at the moment. The other models have snow multiple times in the next two weeks. Let’s take a look by beginning with the Kansas City Holiday Weather Forecast Time-Line.

Kansas City Holiday Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny & dry.  High:  57°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with light southwest winds under 10 mph.  High:  58°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and dry.  Light southeast winds.  High:  51°
  • Thursday:  Increasing clouds with a chance of sprinkles.  High:  63°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy. High:  35°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy. High:  31°
  • Christmas Eve:  Cloudy with a chance of snow.  High:  25°
  • Christmas Day:  Partly cloudy with a a few snow showers possible.  High:  23°

Strike 1:  Thursday Night-Friday Storm

1There is a storm, that will be dropping into the southwest and western states by Wednesday. This system is then forecast to become positively tilted, tilted from northeast to southwest, and split into pieces.  The northern part is forecast to come out over the plains states northwest of Kansas City, with a southwest part of the trough hanging back over the 4-corners states.  This storm will likely produce bands of snow across many states from New Mexico and Colorado northeast across Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.  The GFS swings and misses on this one for Kansas City, but so does the European Model. The Canadian model did produce on the second hang back system, but it has no support from the other models.

What happens next is now becoming a rather frustrating thing to monitor.  The GFS swings and misses again on this Christmas Eve storm system that seems as if there is potential for snow in KC. The swing and miss comes with how the model lines up the upper level trough. It would not take much for this to line up for a white Christmas in KC. Take a look at the difference:

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The GFS model, shown above, valid Christmas Eve morning, shows a trough carving out over the plains states. Other models carve out this trough farther west. If it drops in where I drew my line, then snow is likely on Christmas Eve. The European Model came to bat and hit a triple off the wall. This model produced a band of 3 to 8 inches of snow near Kansas City for the second model run in a row. The Canadian model hit a double down the line and produced a few inches of snow. The GFS model swings and misses for Kansas City again, so strike two on the GFS model.

So, the count is now 0-2 for the GFS model. The third storm showing up on the models is one that is predicted to show up between Christmas and New Years, and another one right after the first of the year. The GFS model is swinging at a pitch down the middle, and it hit a base hit on both storms. Now, we have to wait and see what actually happens.

GFS Snowfall Forecast: Next Ten Days

gfs_asnow_us_41

There have been model runs that literally have Kansas City as the only spot with no snow.  At least on this model we share the no snow with St. Louis.

Now, is this model right. It is such a tough battle, and so difficult to go through this day after day. But, there is nothing we can do about it.  Maybe we, the weather and snow enthusiasts, are about to get our reward for being patient.  The new models will be coming in soon. The thing to monitor is that trough this weekend. Will it form farther west?

gfs_T2m_us_30

An Arctic Blast is forecast to affect areas from Iowa northward. We will be discussing this in more detail in the coming days.  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation.

Gary

A Christmas Arctic Blast Is Increasingly Likely

Good Sunday afternoon bloggers,

The blog is a bit later today. I went to the Chiefs game yesterday, a huge 30-13 victory. On Sports Radio 810 AM, at 7:55 AM Friday, I predicted two Marcus Peters interceptions, and it verified. So, now can we get an accurate Christmas forecast out there now, seven days away from Christmas Eve, eight days from Christmas Day?

GFS Model Forecast Valid 6 AM Christmas Morning:

Christmas Morning

The models are still all over the place when it comes to the specifics of what will happen during the next week. One thing that seems fairly certain; there will be an Arctic Blast over the northern part of the United States. How strong and how far south will this impact is still a big question, however?  Will there be a storm system:

  • The GFS Model: Has storm systems, but leaves Kansas City high and dry with just a few snow flurries. This GFS model appeared to be heading in the direction of a major storm and then it didn’t quite develop for KC.
  • The Canadian Model:  This model shows a major snowstorm/winter storm near Kansas City right around Christmas Eve
  • The European Model:  The Euro has around a 4 to 8″ snowstorm centered on KC on Christmas Eve

If you were reading through the comments Friday night, then you likely saw that I had gone through an extensive analysis of this pattern, and there were some really interesting findings.  As is, this pattern eventually just has to produce some snow.  But, also as is, if the cycles were exactly the same line for line, then it will be a struggle for one to come together. But, before we lose hope we must realize it is rarely ever line for line, although once in a while it almost incredibly lines up almost perfectly from one cycle to another. More often than not, however, there are significant seasonal differences, and there are enough influences from other factors that we can get some interesting twists and get a major storm in one cycle and almost nothing in another. It is important to have this understanding and realize there is hope for us weather enthusiasts. Just look at this next picture:

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This is a picture outside my yard on December 7, 2005.  There was one of these twists that produced nearly a foot of snow in Kansas City in this December cycle, but in the next cycle there were different influences on the pattern and there were only flurries.

LRC Cycle 2 December 7 2005Look at the weather pattern for this big snowstorm on December 7, 2005. A huge upper low formed northwest of KC, but because an Arctic air mass was in place, this pattern produced the major snowstorm southeast of that upper low.  In the very next cycle, a wave came over the west coast ridge and never amplified into an upper low. It was the “same pattern, but different”, as Gary England said around ten years ago. The differences were enough to have huge differences in what we experienced at the surface, yet we can show you it was the same pattern.  That was then, and this is now.

Take a look at the weather pattern as of December 16th, yesterday.  The upper low over Mexico got kicked out and we had our little rainfall event.  This pattern, as shown on the actual analysis, not a computer projection that we keep looking at, shows a very different pattern than what was predicted just seven days before.  Here is yesterday:

LRC Cycle 2 December 16

Now, the forecast a week ago for today is shown on this map below.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_25

 

The model did not do such a horrible job, but that upper low that just produced rain was not forecast to be kicked out at all a week ago. Look at  how different this actually was in just a one week forecast.  We will be in search of one of these differences in the next week.

It rained this morning, sort of breaking the “ice” on the very long dry spell we have been in, but only sort of; only 0.08″ fell at KCI Airport. Oh, a few locations and 0.30″ to 0.45″ but this barely breaks the ice, in my opinion, and we certainly haven’t broken the ice when it comes to snow.

I am hopeful that our conversation will be of excitement for the weather and snow enthusiast in the next week, and not disappointment again. Remember, the weather pattern is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. Now, what is it going to be, we are trying our best to forecast this, and the LRC provides the best tool available in the field of meteorology to do so.  There are systems that cycled through in the past cycle, during November, but there was no Arctic air available. This “twist” is one of the differences that may end up helping, or hurting? We just don’t know yet.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in our conversation.

Gary

It Could Be, It May Be, It is a Chance of Snow!

Good Saturday bloggers,

The dry spell is now at 55 days, but we see some changes which will lead to chances of rain and snow. Now, we do not see a big storm system at this time, but we will take what we can get. First, we will look at the rain chance and then the snow chance.

Here is the latest drought monitor and drought conditions are on the increase as this dry pattern persists. Our region is in the abnormally dry category with much worse conditions across southeast Missouri to Arkansas.

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TODAY (3-5 PM): The weather will be incredible for December with highs around 60°. The wind will be from the south to southwest at 5-15 mph, decreasing from 10-25 mph. The weather for tailgating looks quite nice as temperatures will drift down through the 50s into the 40s.

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TONIGHT (7-11 PM): When you see a Saturday night Chiefs game on December 16th on the schedule you ask how cold will it be out at Arrowhead? The answer for this year is the 40s with a light wind and no rain or snow. It does not get much nicer than this in KC during the middle of December at night.

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SUNDAY MORNING: A storm system in northern Mexico today will be racing north and we will actually see rain, entering the region by 4-5 AM. Temperatures will be around 40°, so no ice or snow is expected.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will end 12-2 PM leaving a cloudy sky with lingering mist/showers as highs climb to 45-50. The clouds, lingering mist and perhaps a shower will last into early Monday morning. The sun returns Monday afternoon with highs back to the 50s.

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SUNDAY RAINFALL FORECAST: Remember, we are about 3.50″ of rain below average since October 22nd. This system for Sunday will bring about a trace to .25″ of rain, most along and east of I-35. if the storm shifts farther south, then most locations will see under .10″. This is not much no matter how you cut it, but this is a dry time of year and .25″ for a December storm system is not bad and also, we will take what we can get.

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OK, what about the chance of snow? The computer data has been all over the place with a trend to nothing the last several days. Well, overnight we have seen a trend to a chance of snow Thursday-Friday as the cold air rushes in. This does not look like a big storm system, but it could end the snowflake contest if all goes right. The data has shown the most snow north of KC, mostly in Nebraska and Iowa. We will be following this closely.

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Whether we see any snow it will turn much colder by Friday with lows 10° to 20° and highs 25°-30°.

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There is not only the chance of snow Thursday-Friday, but there is still a chance Christmas Eve and Day, so we have two legitimate chances to have a White Christmas. The chance as of this moment is 56%.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner