Quantcast

1245 PM THURSDAY UPDATE

Good afternoon bloggers,

During the last 30 minutes an area of showers and small thunderstorms has formed from Topeka to Emporia.  These thunderstorms are forming along a dry line that is racing east across Kansas.  These are thunderstorms that we will be watching in our area between now and 4 PM.  They will be moving quickly to the east.  Dew points are in the low 50s with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.  This is just not unstable enough for major severe weather.  Now, some of these thunderstorms may produce quarter sized hail.  And, as far as wind, well behind the dry line there have been gusts 50-55 mph, so we may still see 50 mph + winds outside the thunderstorms.

RADAR 1230 PM

THURSDAY 12 PM SURFACE

Here in KC temperatures are in the upper 50s, but we should see a jump to the mid 60s, especially after the dry line passes.

We will be watching these thunderstorms closely as a watch will likely be issued during the next hour.

Jeff Penner

Slight Risk Mostly Way Off To The East

Good morning bloggers,

Severe weather season may be beginning, but today there are limiting factors that will keep any severe weather risk quite low and off to our east.  Take a look at this morning’s surface map, this is the 7 AM surface map:

1

The first thing I notice is the lack of higher dew points. There is not one 60 degree dew point on this surface map deep down into Texas.  So, there will be a limited moisture supply. The second thing I notice is that there will be a lack of heating today. It just isn’t warm enough to kick off any organized thunderstorms earlier in the day. And, this earlier in the day time period is important for Kansas City because the front will pass through this afternoon. By 6 PM the front will likely be near Sedalia, MO.  With a lack of heating and the front moving through fast any risk of severe weather will be very slight and most likely well off to the east and southeast of Kansas City.  As usual, let’s see how this looks in a few hours.  For more information on the cycling pattern you can read the Weather2020 blog here:  Weather Pattern Moving Into Late March.

Round Table

 

Yesterday, we had a round table discussion which included Kansas City, MO Sly James and other members of our community. The topic was severe weather and the entire discussion will be available online soon and it will be part of our severe weather special “15 Minutes To Act” which will air one week from tonight!

I will finish the blog later this morning……

Gary

Increasing Chance Of Rain

“15 Minutes To Act”, our weather special airs April 3rd at 6:30 PM!

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is becoming more active with some chances for rain beginning today. We now have a series of weaker storm systems, and possibly one stronger storm system next week.  Today, there is a disturbance coming out of the southwestern states. It is currently in southern New Mexico and tracking our way. This system will weaken as it approaches and then there are two more disturbances that will influence us as well between now and Thursday afternoon. And, then another system will approach us on Friday morning. So, there is a lot going on, but what will it mean for Kansas City? We need some moisture. Here is a graphic I showed on KSHB-TV last night:

2

Even though we are now forecasting a very good chance of rain, pretty much a certainty, we just are still not in the right spot for significant moisture.  Amounts will likely be under 1/2″ again.  We are now into late March and it should become much easier for this type of set-up to produce heavier rainfall. There will be many chances in the next few weeks, so the pressure is on for these storm systems to produce.  Today, it will be quite windy and the fire danger is up again.

After this first wave of energy moves by tonight, a stronger wave will be approaching on Thursday. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow, but there are some limiting factors, the biggest of which will be a lack of surface heating, and low level moisture will be somewhat limited as well with dew points surging but falling short of 60°.  The better chance of any severe weather will likely be off to the east of Kansas City along and ahead of an advancing cold front Thursday afternoon and evening.

There is another disturbance moving our way for Friday, but this one appears that it will be farther north and we may again be in the wrong spot. During the next two weeks there will be an increasing chance that one of these storm systems will be wetter and much stronger.

Have a great day. We will look ahead on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

Spring Will Push Winter Out

Good Tuesday bloggers,

After a hard freeze this morning with lows in the low 20s, today will be sunny and cool with highs nearly 20 degrees below average, the low 40s.  Spring apparently is tired of losing, so tomorrow warmer air will begin a northward push on south winds gusting to 45 mph during the afternoon into the night.  We will also be tracking two disturbances as well.  The first moves through tomorrow evening with the wind.  It will likely bring a fast moving area of rain showers from the city southward.

Tomorrow afternoon along with the 45 mph wind gusts will be increasing clouds.

1

Tomorrow evening we will be tracking an area of rain as the winds continue.  Our high tomorrow will likely reach the mid 50s, but drop to the 40s as the clouds and rain charge in from the south.

2

Tomorrow night the first disturbance will exit to the east as the next one approaches from the west.  In between the two disturbances it will be cloudy, more moist and windy, along with a chance of drizzle and isolated showers/thunderstorms as warmer and more humid air is forcing its way north.

3

We had snow on Monday and on Thursday there is a slight risk of severe weather from our  area eastward.  Welcome to KC in March!  This is due to the second disturbance, increased warmth and humidity and a cold front.  Any severe weather looks marginal at this time as highs will just be in the 60s with dew points in the 50s along with lots of cloud cover.  However, that being said, the winds aloft will be rather strong.  The cold front will move through during the afternoon, so the best chance of thunderstorms will be east of here as all of the features will be moving quickly.

45

So, we have chances of rain later Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.  However, since any rain will be scattered and moving fast, we are expecting total rainfall to be .05″ to .25″.  If we can get more thunderstorms, then a few areas could see .25″ to .50″.  We need the rain and there will be more chances next week, even a slight chance Friday.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Snow Today & Big Changes

Good morning bloggers,

Winter and Spring continue to battle it out this week. In round one, today, winter will win. In round 2, later in the week spring is going to win.  Snow is moving our way as I am writing this early this morning, and it is targeting areas near to just west and southwest of the KC metro area. It is really almost in the same spot as two nights ago.

RadarHere was the area of snow as of 6:45 AM.  This band was moving east and southeast.  Let’s see how organized it becomes as it approaches from the west and northwest.  It is currently timed to arrive between now and noon, but then it would only last around one to three hours, depending on where you are located. There will likely be some minor accumulation, mostly on grassy surfaces as this moves through during the middle of the day.  This snow is associated with a fast moving upper level disturbance that will zip by later today and this will be followed by a cold surge of air a the surface.

The area of snow is continuing to push slowly southeast and it was just north and west of Topeka at 9 AM.  The leading echoes were all aloft with snow beginning to fall at Manhattan, KS at just before 9.  The area of snow is weakening as it approaches areas northwest of Kansas City, but it still seems to be targeting the south metro area. Rain could mix in and be more of a factor if temperatures warm just a little bit before this arrives.

Radar2

After this system moves by today another storm system will be approaching from the west with this surface set-up forecast by two days from now:

2

Take a look at that powerful storm off the New England coast.  The wind speeds in knots are indicated but the color table at the bottom of the map.  I wouldn’t want to be in a ship off the New England coast with those nearly hurricane force winds forecast offshore. Back home, we will have our own strong southerly winds trying to draw moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico.  This storm will move by Thursday. There is a lead disturbance that will spread a band of showers and thunderstorms across the southern plains. We will likely be near the northern edge of this lead system.

We will go over all of the details of these changes on 41 Action News.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

Snowing At 1 AM

Good morning bloggers,

Who was up for last night’s snowstorm, well, maybe not a snowstorm but moderate snow fell for an hour or two at 1 AM:

1

A band of snow moved across the KC metro area early Sunday morning.  Visibilities were under 1 mile at times with temperatures dropping.  Temperatures dropping into the lower and middle 20s caused some ice formation from the melting snow on some roads and there was a 22 car accident early this morning around 6 AM on 69 highway.

March Snow Dogs1Here is a picture of Breezy and Stormy getting out in the winter scene as the sun was rising early this morning.  The sun is out, but there is another fast moving system heading our way.  It will be sunny ahead of this storm today, and then a band of precipitation is likely on Monday, and it again may very well be in the form of snow.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog!  We will be analyzing the new data and updating your weather forecast on 41 Action News.

Gary

Friday Cold Front

Good morning bloggers, It’s FRIDAY!

Saturday update:  We will write up a new blog later today. Here is a link to the  Weather2020 blog

A cold front is approaching from the northwest. It is the leading edge of a pretty cold air mass that will be arriving this afternoon.

The colder air is lagging the front.  So, Saturday will be the day we feel the affects of this new and large cold air mass.  Behind the cold front in central Kansas you can see a pocket of gusty northwest winds.  So, when the front comes through 2-3 PM, you will notice a temporary gust of wind with the colder air moving in tonight.

5

Saturday will see the colder air filter in as a weak storm system tracks out of the Rockies.  So, tomorrow will be a cloudy day with areas of snow in Nebraska.  These snow areas will head east into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday night, but they will likely dissipate as they head east.  So, tomorrow night we may see flurries and a few snow showers (See Map Below).  Sunday will also be a cold day as a large Canadian high pressure builds in from the north and takes over much of the USA.  Temperatures in many locations will run 10 to 20 degrees below average.  Our average high is getting close to 60, so yes our highs will be in the low to mid 40s this weekend, (See Map Below)

SATURDAY NIGHT

1

SUNDAY

2

Then, if that was not enough a new blast of cold will come in early next week to replace the weekend cold air mass.  This new cold will be preceded by a small storm system that will spread snow across Iowa and Nebraska.  The southern edge may affect our area Monday afternoon and night with some light snow.

MONDAY 3 PM

3

4

So, when will the 50s, 60s and 70s return?  The end of next week.  It may be Spring, but Winter does not want to leave!

Have a great weekend.

Gary and Jeff

Possible Debris Found On Australia Satellite Picture

Good morning,

Welcome to Spring! Spring begins just before noon today and it will feel like it with a warm-up to near 70 degrees.  We will go into our weather situation in a second, but first some possible debris was found southwest of Australia. If this is real, then it should be found with ground observation within the next 24 hours.  Here is a satellite picture from this morning:

2

There aren’t any strong storm systems that should impact the search today.  Here is a higher resolution closer look:

1

It this is any relationship to flight 370, then oceanographers and meteorologists, and other scientists, will have to analyze the currents to see where the plane would have gone down two weeks ago.  But, the first thing on the list is to verify that this debris is from the plane, or possibly not related at all.  So, we will see what is found today as the mystery of the missing flight 370. It has been almost two weeks now.  Let’s see what happens today.

Weatherwise in Kansas City we will get a nice day to enjoy this first day of spring. There is a RED FLAG WARNING that will be going into effect this afternoon.  A strong cold front will be coming through Friday and there will be some chances for precipitation, possibly snow early next week.  We need some moisture now!  There will be some precipitation opportunities in the next two weeks.

Have a great day!

Gary

One More Day

Good Morning Bloggers!

We have been keeping track of the countdown to Spring and we only have ONE MORE DAY!!! It sure doesn’t feel like spring is one day away though. Strong northwest winds this morning are making it feel very blustery.

blog

The winds picked up overnight as a low passed right through the area and the trailing cold front brought in a few light showers/sleet overnight.  Here is a look out side the morning where we have overcast skies.

ECMWF

Radar as of 7:30 AM:

GFS

This is all pushing off to the east this morning and we will see clearing skies from west to east later on this morning and winds will begin to decrease later on this afternoon.  Let’s finish up this last day of winter because you are really going to like tomorrow.

Here is the set up with GFS Model:

GFS1

We will have warm air advection beginning overnight tonight and into Thursday early morning.  Strong southwest winds will usher in the warmer air mass, but it will be a bit on the windy side tomorrow. South winds around 10-20 mph in the afternoon, but we will see plenty of sunshine.  Tomorrow is going to be the best day of the next seven days with temperatures jumping up into the lower 70s.

Have a great afternoon.

Kalee Dionne

A Mostly Dry Storm System Approaches

Good morning,

A storm system will move across the Kansas/Missouri state line this evening at the surface, with the upper level storm moving by overnight. This will bring us some strong south winds today ahead of the storm as the pressure gradient is pretty strong and the pressures fall. Here is a surface forecast for later this afternoon:

2

There is  pretty decent chance of a few showers this evening and overnight as the upper level storm moves by, but this is really more of  wind producing storm for us, and when the wind shifts to the north tonight it should make some noise as it rattles the windows a bit.

After this goes by, another warm-up is likely Thursday before a pretty strong and dry cold front moves through Friday evening.  Have a terrific Tuesday!

Gary