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Easy Forecast….NOT

Good Tuesday,

We knew this was going to be a crazy week of weather.  Last night we jumped from the 40s to 50s, so people awoke to Spring Tuesday morning.  Now, colder air is moving in and we will be in the 30s by Tuesday evening.  South winds will return tonight and by tomorrow morning we may be 45-50.  Tomorrow will see highs likely back up, possibly into the 60s.  Then, colder air arrives Wednesday night and we have a very slight chance for some light freezing rain Thursday morning.  However, later Friday into Saturday is the best chance for freezing rain and slick roads.  The main storm arrives Sunday and Monday as temperatures try to rise from 30 to 35, so we could see some ice, but it should change to rain. The Chiefs may be impacted, but if the storm slows down it could stay dry for the game.   Now, all of this being said, it is still way too early to be getting specific and we will have  to continue to monitor the data.

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Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this nuttiness!

Have a great day.

Jeff

Warmer Days & Possible Weekend Winter Storm

Good Monday,

We have much going on this week in the weather.  We have a warm up to highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, and colder air moving in Thursday.  Then, we turn our attention to the chance of a winter storm Friday-Sunday.  There are so many questions on how the storm will evolve, such as when will it come out of the southwest USA?  The further south it drops and the slower it is, the better chance we see just rain later Sunday and Monday as the cold air has time to retreat.  We could see a brief period of ice Friday-Saturday as a piece could break off of the storm as it heads south.  The faster it comes out, the better chance we have of seeing a winter storm with freezing rain the main precipitation type.  This is due to much warm air aloft.  So, lets take this one day at a time and enjoy the highs in the 50s.

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Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this wild weather pattern.

Have a great rest of your Monday and week ahead.

Jeff

Large Temperature Contrast

Good Sunday,

We have been in the cold air since Wednesday the 4th and now we are getting ready to enter much warmer air for the next few days.  We will be precariously close to Arctic air and rather warm air the next 5 days.  It looks like we will be in the warmer air Tuesday-Thursday before new Arctic air surges in.  What about precipitation?  Well, we do not see much at this time, but there are a couple of days to monitor.  We may see some drizzle Wednesday as warm and moist air moves in and there is a system for Friday that could bring some ice or snow.  There is much uncertainty on the Friday system.  We will know more as we get closer to the day.

THIN ICE: Friday, a mother and son near Wichita fell through ice on a pond and drowned.  The ice is NOT thick enough as we have not been cold enough long enough.  Now we head back to the 50s this week and the ice will melt.  So, next weekend when it gets cold again and ice forms on the ponds again, it will NOT be thick enough to walk on.

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Click on the video below for an in depth look at this roller coaster ride of temperatures.

Have a great week!

Jeff

Roller Coaster Ride

Good Saturday.

We have had a couple of frigid mornings and now we turn our attention to a nice warming trend.  But, we are tracking a series of cold and warm fronts, so we are in for some ups, downs and all around’s on the thermometer.  At this time we do not see any significant precipitation with all of the ups and downs.  Now, there is considerable precipitation in the southeast and western USA.

A winter storm will be exiting the southeast tonight.  There are Blizzard warnings around Norfolk, Virginia.

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On the west coast, this is day 1 of a 7-10 day precipitation event as numerous moisture laden systems come in off of the Pacific Ocean.  Central and northern California may end up with 15″ to 25″ of rain/melted snow before this ends.  The good  news is that this will greatly dent the drought and fill up low lakes and rivers, the bad news is that flooding and mudslides are likely.

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Now to our weather.  We do not have excessive precipitation to track, but we will be tracking crazy changes on the thermometer.

TODAY: A weak cold front will slip through this afternoon.  It is weak as the air ahead of and behind the front is about the same, frigid!

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TODAY: Temperatures will warm to around 25° ahead of the front.  Then, temperatures will quickly drop to the teens this evening as we go into a mini colder pocket.

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SUNDAY: The cold front from today will washout as a warm front surges east across the Plains.  This warm front will be preceded by clouds, but by afternoon the sun will return and temperatures should crack freezing.

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MONDAY: We will start in the 20s and by afternoon with a nice south breeze we will warm to 40°-45°.  Notice the dip in the green contour in eastern Kansas.  This is due to a snow cover affect, so we may end up closer to 40°.  Now, the snow is not that deep and will be easy to melt, so if we can get rid of the snow faster, we will get close to 45°.

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TUESDAY MORNING: Look at this!  Strong south winds will be occurring Monday into Tuesday morning, transporting warm and actually moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, so by Tuesday morning we will be close to 50°.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Warmer air will be surging in as a cold front approaches.  If the front is slower we could see highs 55°-60°.  If it is faster we could see highs 45°-50°.  We are going in between with a high of 54°.  In any case, it will be much warmer than what we have been dealing with the last few days.

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The rest of next week will see temperatures cooler Wednesday, warmer Thursday and colder Friday as we track a series of warm and cold fronts.  We do not see any precipitation producing systems at this time, but if one were to affect us it would be next Friday and Saturday.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

First Snow Day In Almost 3 Years

Good morning bloggers,

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This is Sunny The Weather Dog on our midnight walk last night.  Well it finally happened. Kansas City Missouri Schools are having a snow day and over 100 other schools are closed today as well. We were forecasting 1 to 2 inches of snow and it is very cold out there. Many secondary roads are snow covered this morning while the main highways have slick spots. This weak storm system is moving by this morning. There was one last band of snow moving in at sunrise and this could produce an additional 1/2″ or less in areas near KC.

Radar as of 7:15 AM:

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This radar image shows a band of moderate snow west of Topeka trying to work its way east. We are tracking this final area of snow on 38 The Spot and 41 Action News this morning.

Kansas City Forecast:

  • This morning: The snow will end by noon with an additional dusting to 1/2″ possible in a few spots. Roads will be slick and hazardous
  • This afternoon: Drying out with some sun coming out. High temperatures will be in the teens to near 20 degrees
  • Tonight:  Temperatures plummet to near zero

There will be a big warm up next week, but this cold will through Sunday before the temperatures jump. Have a great day!

Gary

Winter Weather Advisory

Good Wednesday,

We are tracking a small, fast-moving system for tonight into Thursday that has 1″-3″ potential for much of our region.  The chance of snow is nearly 100%.  So. lets go through the situation.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:  As you can see this is a narrow advisory with areas just north of KC being the center.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING SATELLITE: There is no big storm system, rather a series of small and weakening waves tracking from west-northwest to east-southeast across the Plains.  There is also a jet streak tracking southeast from the northern Plains that will enhance lift from the right-rear quadrant of the jet.

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WEATHER TIME LINE

(7 PM to 10 PM): The first band of snow will begin across northern Missouri between north KC and northwest MO to northeast Kansas.

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10 PM to 1 AM: The snow will increase and expand to south of I-70.  Temperatures will be 15°-20° with little wind, so the very first snowflakes will stick.

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1 AM to 6 AM: This will be the main part of the snow event as the main band of snow shifts south.  The pink color indicates patches of moderate to heavy snow.

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6 AM to 10 AM: The snow will end quickly from northwest to southeast.

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10 AM to Noon: The snow is long gone, but the cold remains.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: This is what the latest computer model data is showing for KC, basically 1″-2″ totals.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST (MAP):  At this time it looks like the 2″-3″ band will occur mostly north of KC.  This is from the 12z NAM. The other models that have lower totals in the graph above have the heavier band smaller and further north. So, bottom line it looks like a 1″-2″ snow for most locations and there will be a thin band of 2″-3″ most likely north of KC, but it could shift anywhere and we will not know for sure until this snow sets up, as it currently does not exist.  Wind will not be a factor, so it will be easier to measure than the first snow of the season on December 17th.

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This is not a big storm, but the small events can have huge impacts, plus the timing makes it so roads and surfaces for the Thursday morning rush hour will be slick and hazardous.  So, take it slow and cautious Thursday.

Will there be school closings?  The amounts would suggest no, but due to the timing this changes the equation.  The big KC districts may not close, but outlying schools have a much better chance of seeing a snow day.  Now, all this being said we will have the latest school closings Thursday morning on 41 Action News.

Have a great day and stay safe.

Jeff

Increasing Snow Chance

Good Tuesday,

Arctic air is pouring in and the rest of today will be stuck in the 20s despite  an increase in the sunshine.  Tonight will be clear and cold with lows around 10°.  Wednesday will see increasing clouds as a snow system approaches.  It looks like the snow will begin around 10 PM Wednesday night and end around 7 AM Thursday with a dusting-2″ possible.  So, the Thursday morning rush hour could be a mess.

Click on the video below for an in depth look at the return of winter.

Have a great day and week ahead.

Jeff

A Foggy Change To Cold & Snow Is Possible Wednesday Night

Good Monday evening and Happy New Year bloggers,

The year has started out quite fascinating. We just had 14 straight days of above average temperatures, but this is now changing. In the change is this, as you can see below:

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The visibilities have gone down to near zero this evening. By Tuesday a blast of cold is on the way.

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The cold front, as of 6 PM Monday evening as I was writing this, was moving southeast. The air behind this front is very cold indeed. Temperatures will begin dropping by around midnight and Tuesday will feel much colder. There is also a weak disturbance that could bring us some very light snow Wednesday night, but it does not appear it will be a sure thing and even if it happened it would be barely a dusting, but we have to watch it closely as it could be as much as an inch.

We are having our third straight winter with low snowfall totals. Take a look at the December stats:

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Just when you thought it was going to be a cold winter it rapidly warmed up by Christmas. So far, only 2.3″ this winter all last month.  There is a storm may come together in February, or possibly later this month. The overall pattern, however, will likely feature a huge warm up in January as the pattern is cycling according to the LRC and we have a great new website at Weather2020.com that we are sharing this breakthrough technology with. We actually have developed an LRC model that is showing much better accuracy than any other model out there.  It’s really fascinating and will only improve in the years ahead of us.

Speaking of long range forecast accuracy. The outlook for the Chiefs playoff game at Arrowhead is nice with temperatures above average.  We made this forecast for that weekend 30 days ago. We will monitor it closely, but any chance of a storm is very low. Any chance of it being ridiculously cold is even lower.

Again, Happy New Year. Many of you may have heard I lost my dog Breezy on Friday.  It was somewhat sudden. She was 11 years old and had liver cancer and a Gallbladder infection that ended up doing her in. We had to make that hard decision. I MISS HER SO MUCH. She was very special. Sunny is doing well as she was there when it happened. I can’t explain, it but I can tell she knows.

Gary

Roller Coaster Ride

Happy New Year,

Today we will be in the 40s, then tonight into Monday we will see temperatures rise to the 50s.  Our highs tomorrow will be 53-60 depending on how far north the warm air makes it.  This warm up will come with clouds, fog, some drizzle and a few rain showers.  Then, two cold fronts move by Monday night with perhaps some more drizzle and a few showers(Total rainfall trace-.10″).  This starts the down part of the roller coaster and then we go back up next weekend.

Click on the video below for an in depth look at the first week of 2017.

Have a great, healthy and safe 2017,

Jeff

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year,

2016 will end and 2017 will start, dry with slightly above average temperatures as highs reach the 40s.  Then, as we head towards Monday highs will jump to around 60°.  We are tracking an Arctic air mass for next week and a slight snow chance.  Click on the video below for an in depth look at the weather as we enter 2017.

Have a happy and safe New Year

Please don’t drink and drive.

Jeff