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Great Fall Weather

Good Saturday bloggers,

First, as a Royals fan for 40 years, it was quite exciting last night to see them celebrate and not another team.  I hope they did not drink too much, as they can still win the division.  It is shaping up to be quite a week for Kansas City sports fans with Monday night football and Tom Brady in town followed by Royals playoff baseball. So, how long will this great weather hold as it is looking busy at the Truman Sports complex.  Now back to the weather.

Today through Tuesday the weather will remain the same with highs in the low 80s, lows around 60 along with abundant, hazy sunshine.  An upper level ridge will be in place these days.

MAP #1: Valid Sunday night

BLOG 1

This means very nice weather for Monday night football.  Temperatures will fall from the 70s during tailgating to the mid 60s by the 4th quarter.  A new weather pattern is setting up and you can see the storm systems in and entering western North America.  These will come together and bring our next good rain chance around Wednesday.

MAP #2: Wednesday night

BLOG 2

The two storm systems in map #1 combined to form a trough over the middle of North America by mid next week.  This will bring a decent cold front through along with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms.  At this time, it looks like a 1-2 day event followed by cool, but calm weather.  So, if the Royals have a home game Tuesday, they should get it in under the wire, but we have to watch it closely as the weather pattern will be changing fast.  If they have a game next weekend, most likely it will be cool and dry, but lets look at that next week and hope we have to make a forecast for the Royals next weekend.

The best day to fertilize the yard is Tuesday as it looks like we have a decent shot at rain Wednesday.  I think I will put my October dose of fertilizer down on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and go Royals and Chiefs!

Jeff

Quiet Weather Ahead

Good Morning Bloggers!

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Despite the clouds it is a great start to the day.  We will see a mix of sun and clouds today with temperatures warmer than yesterday.  High temperatures will sit in the upper 70s for most of us, but there will be a few spots that are in the lower 80s.  This forecast will stick with us through the weekend with a mix of sun and clouds.

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There will be a low that backs into the NE portion of our viewing area Saturday morning, which may bring us a few more light showers from Chillicothe to Kirksville.  Other than that, the forecast stays quiet through next week.

Speaking of next week,  keeping an eye on Wednesday through Friday for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Kalee Dionne

A changing weather pattern

Good evening bloggers,

The weather pattern is finally moving into the massive change.  I will be talking about the changing pattern extensively on the Weather2020.com blog if you want to share in that experience.  What we are seeing happening right before our eyes is fascinating to us, and we hope to share this experience with you in the coming weeks and months. Today’s light rain event was still related to the old pattern and it very well may have been the finale.  Let’s hope the new pattern is more exciting.

The storm that just moved by is stretching out and it will begin evolving into a new storm system by Thursday:

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Just look at this developing pattern.  The trough moving towards the west coast will eventually move inland and the energy will wipe out this strange pattern that is forming aloft over the eastern half of the nation.

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This second map shows the pattern forming by Saturday.  A weak upper low will be near near the Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri border. Some colder air aloft will be associated with this system that is stuck in the massive change. Will it be able to produce a few showers? Maybe, but they certainly won’t be significant.

We will have complete details on 41 Action News today, tonight, into Thursday.  Have a great Wednesday evening. Let’s hope the Royals win tonight.

Gary

Fall Begins Tonight

Good Morning Bloggers!

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It certainly felt like fall this morning with temperatures in the middle to upper 40s across the viewing area, but boy was it a beautiful clear start.  Today is rather quiet as you head back to work for the week with plenty of sunshine this afternoon.

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Temperatures will be great with high temperatures reaching the middle 70s this afternoon.  It will certainly feel like fall all day long.  Fall doesn’t officially begin until 9:29 p.m. tonight, so the first full day isn’t until tomorrow.  Tuesday looks great as well with a little more cloud cover.  We have a small chance of a few showers in the western edge of the viewing area.  Most of us will stay dry.  The NAM has the  chance for a few showers in NE Kansas and NW Missouri as early as lunch time.

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The GFS keeps most of the moisture up in Nebraska until Wednesday morning.

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Put in a 10% chance for rain for the NW portion of the viewing area on Tuesday, but think most of us will stay dry.  Wednesday the chance is better for rain, but still not much for us.

Have a great day!

Kalee Dionne

Sunshine to persist on Monday

Simply put: a beautiful day across the area today. The cold front passed through and high pressure drifted over top, clearing out the sky and giving us some comfortable temperatures for the final full day of Summer.
1kmv

The visible satellite image above shows the sunshine and if you look closely enough, you can get an idea of where the cold front is located at this time: going from the Tennessee area then stretching across middle Arkansas into Central Oklahoma.

I do not expect too much variance for Monday. Perhaps a few more cumulus clouds in the heat of the day, but we’ll stay in the middle 70s for highs and winds will shift back to the Southeast.

I am tracking clouds and a small chance for sprinkles and showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now, looking over the model guidance, activity would be very light and should remain off to the West of K.C. on Tuesday. At least, that’s what the GFS and the ECMWF are suggesting. The NAM, however, is taking on a different approach.
NAMTues

Right now, the NAM would be outlier because it is the ONLY model suggesting this scenario for Tuesday afternoon. I think part of it may have to do with an area of high pressure that will be over the Ohio Valley.
The potential setup for Tuesday morning, via the HPC, may look like this:
12zTuesSFC

If we can generate enough upslope flow from that high, I could see something passing over the K.C. area. As always, though, there are many other variables at play here. At the 500mb level (18k feet above our heads), there needs to be some energy to work with. This is where some disagreement shows up in the models. The NAM says this:
NAM500

You can clearly see that dark colored area over Northcentral/Northeast Kansas. That would indicate lift in the atmosphere, which would generate some kind of precipitation. Yet, the GFS (and other models) say it’s not that strong nor in that location.
GFS 500

It’s these subtle variables that can play key roles in what our weather does. And it’s not as simple as “picking the model that’s always right”. If forecast were that easy, there’d be a lot less jokes about how wrong weather people are yet still get to keep their jobs!

At this time, I am going to forecast a chance of sprinkles and showers for our Western coverage area (a/k/a Eastern Kansas) for Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. There may be slightly better chances for showers on Wednesday in Kansas City. Even then, it’s *not* a sure thing.

We will continue to track this and give you updates. Outside of what happens on Tuesday & Wednesday, we’re in for a pretty quiet week. I do see a small return to Summer as we go toward next weekend. While it won’t be terribly hot, it will be above average. A typical seesaw battle between Summer and Fall as we go through the 2nd half of September.

Hope you all had a great Sunday
-JD

Potential severe weather today (Saturday)

7:00p Update
There are a few showers TRYING to develop, but I think the threat for Kansas City is done. No rain tonight.
1 PM

Keep in mind, the overall forecast was a 30% chance and earlier today, the best odds were on either side of KC. Anyone that lives in Kansas City and was expecting rain must have been watching the wrong forecast!

4:45p Update
Well, we certainly have the juice out there for storms; it’s muggy. But the atmosphere is not playing nicely. I’ve watched several cells head toward I-70 and just totally fall apart. Models have not handled today well at all. Even at this hour, the newest HRRR is still trying to say something blossoms up over Western KC between 5p and 6p. But I don’t buy it.
We never got the activity to our East at all. Part of the reason may be the cloud cover helping to limit the sunshine. We also didn’t get quite enough “umph” from the incoming front.
VIS

Also, the SPC just released a new update. They are still monitoring the area for a watch, but have now dropped the odds to 40%. At this point, *if* it happens, it’d probably be for Southern Kansas, outside of our coverage area.

Remember: the atmosphere does not follow our forecast; it doesn’t care what we think. The atmosphere is a fluid and is always in motion. We have to adjust based on what it does.

1:45p UPDATE
The SPC is talking about issuing a watch for our area. Via their latest mesoscale discussion, it would include KC *if* the issuing the watch. Right now, they say they are at a 60% chance of issuing. Remember: it’s the Storm Prediction Center that issues watches (not the local NWS, even though they do consult with the SPC on geographic coverage). Local TV does not have this authority. So, I will continue to monitor and update as needed.

Previous blog from 11am

I guess I’ll give the ol’ blog here an update…. feel free to share the info.

Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for portions of our coverage area today.
SPC

At this time, that does NOT include Kansas City. However, a new update is expected around noon this afternoon and they may adjust their “Slight Risk” area. As always, don’t be fooled by the term “slight”. While the overall chances are low for severe weather, there may be one or two storms that get a little nasty this afternoon.

Here’s the current setup.
On the visible satellite image, you can see a fair amount of sunshine over the KC area. Meanwhile, to our North there’s an active area of thunderstorms.
Visible Satellite as of 10:15am

Those storms show up better on the radar. Currently, there is an active thunderstorm warning for the West side of this small line (as you can see from the yellow box). This is moving to the East/Southeast.

Radar as of 10:40a

Radar as of 10:40a

Looking over the forecast guidance… it’s struggling. The latest NAM doesn’t really latch on to what’s going on now, so it gives a ho-hum outlook for later.

NAM model showing radar for 10am

NAM model showing radar for 10am

 

NAM model - simulated radar for 3p

NAM model – simulated radar for 3p

So, personally, I think the NAM is out to lunch today and can’t be trusted much. On the other hand, here is what the RPM is doing.

RPM model - Simulated radar at 10am

RPM model – Simulated radar at 10am

It is picking up on the activity in Southern Nebraska, but has it a bit too far South.
Looking ahead, however, this is what it tries to develop later this afternoon:

RPM model - Simulated radar at 3pm

RPM model – Simulated radar at 3pm

This would indicate some strong storms on either side of Kansas City. Mainly Cameron/Chillicothe to the East and then Topeka/Lawrence to our West. Again, this is just model guidance not concrete truth. It may also have a Southern bias, given how it started out putting things a bit too far South.

For those wondering about the HRRR output, it seems that model is having some processing issues on certain websites. However, the great folks over at WeatherBell are able to process a backup to the HRRR and this is what it looks like for 3p today:

Via weatherbell.com. Worth checking out

Via weatherbell.com. Worth checking out

They have a great selection of model output at WeatherBell. This high resolution image is proof. Worth checking out their offerings.
The HRRR is along the same lines as the RPM, so that’s boosting confidence a little bit that we’ll get a couple bigger storms later today.

WHAT’S THE RISK?
Right now, strong winds (over 55mph) and some larger hail (golfball size) would be the primary concerns with the storms that are able to grow and develop. This does NOT mean that every single storm will produce these kinds of winds/hail. Tornado threat isn’t sky-high, but it’s also not nil. There is a small chance of a tornado or two. Here again, not every storm will produce one. It’s possible we don’t see a single tornado in our area today. But I want you prepared in case one develops and you need to take cover.

As of this blog update, we have no active watches or warnings in our area. I will try to update the blog (toward the top) if this changes. Currently, I am writing from home. I will be going into the station later and tracking whatever develops on radar. We are scheduled for 5p, 6p, and 10p newscasts today. However, we are always at the mercy of NBC sports programming on the weekends and our newscasts may be delayed if something runs long. Stick with us. If something major develops on radar, we will break into programming as needed.

This is NOT shaping up to be a major severe weather day. I want you to know that. No reason to panic or become frightened. Yes, there is a chance we see some thunderstorms this afternoon. And in that chance there is a chance some of them become strong to severe. If/when they do, we’ll be the station giving you the latest information and telling you what you should do. We will not be the ones scaring the pants off of you. That’s not my approach to severe weather. Plan and prepare, not doom and gloom.

I’ll keep you updated.
-JD

Last Weekend of Summer

Good Morning Bloggers!

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Some dense fog in spots again this morning, but that will begin to burn off late this morning.  The clouds will slowly begin to break up this afternoon and we will see some sun through the clouds.

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The warm front is on the move through the area right now and will lift north this afternoon. This will put all of us in the warm sector and we will warm up quickly this afternoon.  High temperatures will be 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday with high temperatures into the lower 80s.

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Looking forward we will have a cold front sink south into the viewing area on Saturday afternoon.  This will help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms late afternoon and early evening for our viewing area.  This doesn’t mean that the day is ruined and you can’t be outside, but just keep an eye on radar around 2 pm and into the evening.

Have a great day!

Another update coming later

Stubborn Low Clouds and a look ahead

Good evening bloggers,

We are currently looking over the changing weather pattern. How will it impact the weekend? A warm front will move through and temperatures will jump into the 80s on Friday!!! But, not today. Look at these stubborn clouds:

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Kansas City was the epicenter of this cloud deck today. There is a slight chance of a few thunderstorms the next few days, and we will time it out for you on 41 Action News.  The pattern is changing, and the new LRC is about to set up. I am so ready for something new!!!!

Gary

Low Cloud Problem

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We had some nice thunderstorm activity this morning, mostly from Kansas City to Springfield.  Some heavy rain occurred in Johnson county Kansas.

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This was due to a developing warm front to our southwest.  Now, we have some drizzle and a band of low clouds situated north and east of the front.  These clouds will be hard to get rid of today as the warm front sits.  Temperatures right now are in the mid to upper 60s.  If we are to reach the mid to upper 70s, the sun will have to come out.  Also, tonight the warm front slips south and west so, if the low clouds break, they will fill back in tonight.  These low clouds will be hard to get rid of on Thursday as the warm front will be still sitting to the south and west.  Friday, the warm front surges north and all locations will jump to highs in the 80s.

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What about thunderstorms?  It is looking like the best chance tonight will be from Concordia to Emporia to Chanute, KS as the front sags south.  Our area could still see drizzle and perhaps a stray thunderstorm north and east of  the main area.

So, our main forecast issue the next 2 days is whether these low clouds clear or not, a low cloud problem.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Tough Rain Forecast The Next Few Days

Good evening bloggers,

The new data will be coming in soon, and we will have on update on 41 Action News at 10 PM, and then beginning at 4:30 AM Wednesday.  A warm front will be developing and, now that summer is coming to an end, this front may act less like a summer front, and more like a fall version. This will potentially help develop a warm advection zone, where thunderstorms may be generated the next two days, and then this weekend we will have to watch the remnants of Odile closely.

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This is one of our Powercasts that actually had 11 inches of rain on the south side of the city Wednesday night. But, the other versions of this same model, with different starting conditions, initial conditions, had a lot less.

Have a great Tuesday night, and we will get you updated as this pattern sets up.

Gary