There are a few showers TRYING to develop, but I think the threat for Kansas City is done. No rain tonight.
Keep in mind, the overall forecast was a 30% chance and earlier today, the best odds were on either side of KC. Anyone that lives in Kansas City and was expecting rain must have been watching the wrong forecast!
Well, we certainly have the juice out there for storms; it’s muggy. But the atmosphere is not playing nicely. I’ve watched several cells head toward I-70 and just totally fall apart. Models have not handled today well at all. Even at this hour, the newest HRRR is still trying to say something blossoms up over Western KC between 5p and 6p. But I don’t buy it.
We never got the activity to our East at all. Part of the reason may be the cloud cover helping to limit the sunshine. We also didn’t get quite enough “umph” from the incoming front.
Also, the SPC just released a new update. They are still monitoring the area for a watch, but have now dropped the odds to 40%. At this point, *if* it happens, it’d probably be for Southern Kansas, outside of our coverage area.
Remember: the atmosphere does not follow our forecast; it doesn’t care what we think. The atmosphere is a fluid and is always in motion. We have to adjust based on what it does.
The SPC is talking about issuing a watch for our area. Via their latest mesoscale discussion, it would include KC *if* the issuing the watch. Right now, they say they are at a 60% chance of issuing. Remember: it’s the Storm Prediction Center that issues watches (not the local NWS, even though they do consult with the SPC on geographic coverage). Local TV does not have this authority. So, I will continue to monitor and update as needed.
Previous blog from 11am
I guess I’ll give the ol’ blog here an update…. feel free to share the info.
Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for portions of our coverage area today.
At this time, that does NOT include Kansas City. However, a new update is expected around noon this afternoon and they may adjust their “Slight Risk” area. As always, don’t be fooled by the term “slight”. While the overall chances are low for severe weather, there may be one or two storms that get a little nasty this afternoon.
Here’s the current setup.
On the visible satellite image, you can see a fair amount of sunshine over the KC area. Meanwhile, to our North there’s an active area of thunderstorms.
Those storms show up better on the radar. Currently, there is an active thunderstorm warning for the West side of this small line (as you can see from the yellow box). This is moving to the East/Southeast.
Radar as of 10:40a
Looking over the forecast guidance… it’s struggling. The latest NAM doesn’t really latch on to what’s going on now, so it gives a ho-hum outlook for later.
NAM model showing radar for 10am
NAM model – simulated radar for 3p
So, personally, I think the NAM is out to lunch today and can’t be trusted much. On the other hand, here is what the RPM is doing.
RPM model – Simulated radar at 10am
It is picking up on the activity in Southern Nebraska, but has it a bit too far South.
Looking ahead, however, this is what it tries to develop later this afternoon:
RPM model – Simulated radar at 3pm
This would indicate some strong storms on either side of Kansas City. Mainly Cameron/Chillicothe to the East and then Topeka/Lawrence to our West. Again, this is just model guidance not concrete truth. It may also have a Southern bias, given how it started out putting things a bit too far South.
For those wondering about the HRRR output, it seems that model is having some processing issues on certain websites. However, the great folks over at WeatherBell are able to process a backup to the HRRR and this is what it looks like for 3p today:
Via weatherbell.com. Worth checking out
They have a great selection of model output at WeatherBell. This high resolution image is proof. Worth checking out their offerings.
The HRRR is along the same lines as the RPM, so that’s boosting confidence a little bit that we’ll get a couple bigger storms later today.
WHAT’S THE RISK?
Right now, strong winds (over 55mph) and some larger hail (golfball size) would be the primary concerns with the storms that are able to grow and develop. This does NOT mean that every single storm will produce these kinds of winds/hail. Tornado threat isn’t sky-high, but it’s also not nil. There is a small chance of a tornado or two. Here again, not every storm will produce one. It’s possible we don’t see a single tornado in our area today. But I want you prepared in case one develops and you need to take cover.
As of this blog update, we have no active watches or warnings in our area. I will try to update the blog (toward the top) if this changes. Currently, I am writing from home. I will be going into the station later and tracking whatever develops on radar. We are scheduled for 5p, 6p, and 10p newscasts today. However, we are always at the mercy of NBC sports programming on the weekends and our newscasts may be delayed if something runs long. Stick with us. If something major develops on radar, we will break into programming as needed.
This is NOT shaping up to be a major severe weather day. I want you to know that. No reason to panic or become frightened. Yes, there is a chance we see some thunderstorms this afternoon. And in that chance there is a chance some of them become strong to severe. If/when they do, we’ll be the station giving you the latest information and telling you what you should do. We will not be the ones scaring the pants off of you. That’s not my approach to severe weather. Plan and prepare, not doom and gloom.
I’ll keep you updated.
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