Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,
The National Weather Service has issued their winter forecast. Whenever a winter forecast is issued before November it will be based on factors that are not yet determined and it will be a cookie cutter forecast based heavily on ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation index). La Niña is developing and the forecast issued yesterday is almost 100% weighted in what a typical La Niña year would mean. As Weather2020 has been explaining for many years now, ENSO is just one piece of the puzzle:
lrc-puzzleThe LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle. El Niño is that piece on the lower right, and La Niña takes its place this year. There are many other factors to consider and the biggest factor is the one that is still evolving. This is the LRC, the cycling pattern. This pattern is still evolving now. I will post the winter forecast that just came out from the National Weather Service below and then we will look at the past two years, the past two winters that were close to snowless in some parts of the KC viewing area, most specifically to the south around Pleasanton, KS where no measurable snow fell last winter and only a few inches the year before.
Let’s take a look at that CPC Winter Outlook. This was issued on October 20, 2016:
So, here we go again. What does it even mean for Kansas City? The forecast for KC is Equal Chances. Here is a statement from their prediction:
“This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. However, La Nina winters tend to favor above average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies and below average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic.
NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for what’s likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. Empowering people with actionable forecasts and winter weather tips is key to NOAA’s effort to build a Weather-Ready Nation.”
They make a big statement: “Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.” As you likely know, Weather2020 has a strong track record of successful forecasts for exactly what they say are “Not Predictable”. This is what you have been experiencing for over a decade now and we have gotten better and better. Oh, we miss a few here and there but our forecasts can be counted on as they will likely be accurate from one day to over 200 days into the future………ONCE WE KNOW THE PATTERN. It often takes until December or at the latest January for when our forecasts are the most accurate. So, let’s hang on for a while longer while this pattern sets up. The National Weather Service is not using, or understanding the biggest piece of the puzzle, the LRC.
In Kansas City we did not have a flake of snow until December, and the total in the past two years has been barely 20″. KC averages 20″ per winter so we are 20″ of snow below average since the 2014-2015 snow season began. Can you imagine getting even just 20″ of snow? That would seem like a lot.
Yesterday Sunny and I went to Sunflower Elementary School and read the book “It’s A Sunny Life”. Here are the wonderful kids from Gardner, KS:
Come and meet us at Land of Paws Saturday:
Have a great day. We will go in-depth on 41 Action News this weekend!