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Several Rain Chances

Good Sunday,

Well, we need the rain, and the first of several rain chances this week is occurring today.  The rain today is a symbol of the kind of rain we will be seeing this week with coverage and amounts a concern.

SUNDAY 7 AM WEATHER TRACK RADAR: You can see the few downpours.  Hopefully your yard or farm experiences one of these downpours.  Amounts will be a trace-.10″, but it is better than nothing, I guess.  This rain activity is along the leading edge of a surge of warm air.  The very warm air will make it only so far east.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This is not an easy forecast as you can see the showers around here this morning will be located across eastern Missouri where some cities will see temperatures in the 40s.  At the same time it will be dry, windy and hot in western Kansas with highs around 90°.  The state line is the dividing line between 80s and 50s, 60s and 70s.  We are going for a high at KCI of 80°, but it could easily be in the low 70s as the 80° line stops to the west, or it could be 83° at KCI if the 80° line moves further east.  It is a game of inches and a tough forecast.  But, it will be a nice day one way or the other, just a bit windy.

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MONDAY (THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING):  Spring begins at 5:29 AM and it will be a very nice day with a partly cloudy sky, light wind and highs in the 70s.  A cold front to the north will make the first full day of Spring feel like winter.

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TUESDAY (TEMPERATURES): This is going to be a cloudy, windy and colder day with temperatures stuck in the 40s to near 50° as the 80s shift south.  What about rain?  See the next map.

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TUESDAY (PRECIPITATION): There will be a few rain showers with, yes a few snowflakes possible in southern Iowa.  Now, once again rainfall amounts will be paltry, a trace-.20″.

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RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 7TH: It has really dried out as we march to being 8″ below average rainfall.  So, we need several widespread rainfall events as we head into Spring.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS:  So, we have the rain chances today, Tuesday and Thursday-Friday.  This is the total rainfall forecast for all of these events.  This is not going to cut it.  Hopefully, before the month ends we can manage a decent rain event.  There are a series of systems to track, but one has to step out of character to bring the beneficial rain.

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Have a great week.

Jeff

In Search of Rain

Good Saturday,

It was a beautiful sunrise with the cirrus and altocumulus clouds.

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We are in for a nice end of winter day with a mostly sunny sky and highs in the low 60s.  The forecast for Sunday becomes tricky as a warm front approaches.  Highs will range from near 90° in western Kansas to 40s in eastern Missouri.  We are in between, and going for a high in the 70s, but 50s will not be too far east, so any slower on the warm front then our high will be in the 60s.  There may be a few showers and thunderstorms later tonight and early Sunday, but the coverage will be rather low.  We need a widespread rain event and there are a series of storm systems to track the next two weeks, but we have concerns that they will not bring significant widespread rainfall.  Hopefully, one of the storm systems will step out of character.

Click on the video below for a detailed look at the weather.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff

The Great Kansas City Snow Drought

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

While New York City is about to get hit again this weekend with up to 5 inches of snow, Kansas City has had less than 5″ of snow the entire winter. The weather pattern is cycling as described by the LRC. In our winter forecast, made four months ago, we discussed one of the main features that would influence the pattern: The Ridge (Called a long term long-wave ridge). You can see it here from our winter forecast. On the second map you can see how it likely was the main reason why snowfall totals have been so low:

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If you are under this ridge, then there is not only a concern for a dry spring, but for a growing drought and a very hot summer ahead of us.
The snowfall totals under the ridge are way below average at all of these locations
Storm systems have been deflected and weakened by this big ridge and the cities north of the ridge have had most of the snow as the storm systems would go up and over, or break up as they moved through this huge feature
Sometimes these ridges are weak and hard to see. This years ridge has been quite obvious. Weather2020 began the discussion of its influences in November and the impacts continue as spring is approaching
Seasonal Snowfall:

  • Kansas City: 4.9″ (Average is 17.8″ by now)
  • Wichita, KS: 2.0″ (Average is 13.6″ by now)
  • Oklahoma City: 2.1″ (Average is 7.2″)
  • Omaha, NE: 11.4″ (Average is 23.5″)
  • Des Moines, IA: 13.3″ (Average is 31.5″)
  • St. Louis, MO: 3.1″ (Average is 16.5″)
  • Dodge City, KS: 5.0″ (Average 17.5″)
  • Denver, CO: 21.1″ (Average 32.3″)
  • Bismarck, ND: 71.1″ (Average 41.2″)
  • Joplin, MO: 2.5″ (Average is 16.5″)
  • Green Bay, WI: 51.5″ (Average is 46.0″)

Look at “the ridge” forming once again in the next two days:

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Now, compare this forecast map above valid Saturday to exactly 118 days ago (59 day cycle times 2):

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What do you think of this comparison? The incredible cycling weather pattern is consistent and this has happened while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has changed phases from a growing weak La Niña to neutral conditions.

This ridge will lead to an 85% chance that there will be below to way below average rainfall and a growing drought, and it will also lead to that same 85% chance of a major heat wave this summer.

So, what is next? As discussed in yesterdays video, there will be three to four storm systems between now and April 1st that will track through the ridge. One or two of these may become strong, but the ridge will still affect these systems. Take a look at the latest European Model rainfall totals for the plains during the next ten days from Eurowx.com:

Screen Shot 2017-03-17 at 7.43.32 AM

The storm systems are also showing up on this model, but something went “wrong” with each system and they would move by dry in the KS/OK vicinity, but produce north and southeast of our area. Last year we would find the wettest models and they would sometimes verify. Until we see any of these systems produce, we have to lean in the drier direction.

Have a great Thursday and you can always join the Weather2020.com blog and get involved in our conversation about this cycling pattern and what it means for our spring and summer.

Gary

Snow and Major Warm Up

Good Tuesday,

The snow band we have been talking about arrived this morning and will exit early this afternoon.  The most accumulation is from Olathe to Overland Park south and west.  The rest of the city will see a dusting.  Most surfaces are wet, but decks, bridges and overpasses will be slick as temperatures are in the 20s.  The March sun angle is helping with the rest of the paved surfaces.  If there is any moisture left over after sunset, black ice on all surfaces could be an issue as lows drop back to the low 20s tonight..

Here is the accumulation forecast, mainly on grassy surfaces.

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A huge warm up is around the corner as the 60s return by Thursday!

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this March Weather Madness.

Jeff

Dinky Snow Chances

Good Monday,

New England is bracing for a mammoth snowstorm with NYC in a Blizzard Warning where they could see around 15″ of snow and 60 mph winds!  This is the kind of storm they get in New England.  What kind of snowstorms do we get here?  Well, we have two chances of snow, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Each one may bring a dusting to 1/3″.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at our little snow chances.  The rest of today will be cloudy, windy and cold with highs in the upper 30s.  There have been some flurries, mist and tiny graupel particles around.  There is a band of drizzle moving through, ending early this afternoon.  Temperatures are below freezing, but most surfaces will be damp to wet.  Decks, bridges and overpasses may have some slick spots, but with this happening during the day in March it lessens the ice impact.

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Have a great day.

Jeff

 

Cold Start to the Week

Good Sunday,

Well, we had 0.4″ of snow officially on Saturday.  So, we did have our first measurable snow since January 5th.  There is still a little snow left on the grass, but it will melt by afternoon as highs reach the low 40s.  We then turn our attention to the first of three storm systems.  The first system moves through tonight with a few rain showers followed by wind and cold.  We are not expecting any icing as surfaces will dry before they have a chance to freeze.  We will keep an eye on it.

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Click on the video below for an in-depth look at the forecast.

Have a great week.

Jeff

The Snow is Here, Mostly

Good Saturday bloggers,

The last measurable snow before today was January 5th.  The streak has officially ended at KCI, but there are many locations still waiting.  Northern Missouri will not see measurable snow and as I write this, Overland Park and Olathe are still waiting for their first flakes.  It looks like snow will fall on those cities before this day ends.  We are once again having a small and totally dysfunctional storm.  That is the way it has been this season.  So, lets go through this odd storm system.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR: We are watching an area of snow east of Concordia, KS.  It looks like this area will slide southeast into the KC area and bring legitimate snow to the south side.

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POWERCAST 1 PM: You can see the southwest side of KC to Ottawa are seeing the snow as that band in northeast Kansas slides southeast,

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: We have a 2-3″ area around Liberty.  That may be a bit overdone, but there was some heavier snow there earlier in the morning.  So, this is total for the whole event.  Most locations will see a dusting to 1-2″.  Notice, how north of St. Joseph and south of the KC area will see little to no accumulation.  Locations south of KC may see snow, but with little accumulation as temperatures there rise above 32.  This is a small, odd system that happens to be centered around I-70 in our area.  Also, this accumulation forecast is for mostly grassy surfaces.  Paved surfaces will be mostly wet with some 1/8″ to 1/2″ slush spots especially in the heavier snow areas.  Bridges and overpasses will be the most slick as temperatures remain below freezing all day.  The March sun angle will help the roads through the day.

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FORECAST: The main snow for the whole city will occur 11 AM to 3 PM.  After 3 PM the snow will race away to the south and weaken.  Now, the March sun angle will help the roads during the daylight hours, but once the sun sets, we will have to watch for re-freezing and more widespread black ice.  There is also a chance for some freezing fog by morning.

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Remember to SPRING FORWARD TONIGHT, 1 hour.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

First Snow In 64 Days Is Coming

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The March Weather Madness continues. The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning during winter. What? Are you kidding? It has been so mild with so any trees budding and blooming before March 10th they felt it was necessary to issue this Freeze Warning:

Screen Shot 2017-03-10 at 7.15.07 AM

The dark purple colored area from Kansas City to Kentucky shows the Freeze Warning. New York City is in a Winter Weather Advisory and they are forecasting 2-4 inches of snow. Can you imagine a forecast of 2-4″? Kansas City is in a snow drought right now for three winters.

Kansas City Snowfall:

  • This Winter: 4.5″ (Second lowest total in recorded history as of today)
  • 2015-2016 Winter: 5.9″
  • 2014-2015 Winter: 14.2″

This is a total of 24.6″ over the past three winters. Will we be adding to this years total? There is still some debate on this as we are now less than 24 hours from some snow spreading into parts of Kansas and Missouri from the north. The storm causing this is not organized at all. There is a second system to track as well, but the trend on Mondays storm is much farther northeast which would draw in much warmer air to mess this chance up in our area.

Let’s look at these next two storm systems. But, first, how dry has it been getting? Take a look at these numbers:

  • It has been 64 days since Kansas City’s last measurable snow: 2.2″ fell at KCI Airport January 4-5, 2017, 64 days ago
  • The dry spell is now at 53 days! In the last 53 days, since the “non ice” ice storm Kansas City has only had 0.45″ which includes the .35″ from Mondays tornado and severe weather outbreak

Storm #1: Saturday

I guess we can call this a storm system. Here is the set up from this mornings NAM model just out:

Screen Shot 2017-03-10 at 8.24.52 AM

This map above shows the latest NAM model. There are 2 to 3 inch amounts near Kansas City. KCI Airport has not had 3″ or more in a storm the past three full winters including this year. Every snowfall has been under three inches since a 7″ snow on February 4-5 four winters ago in the 2013-2014 winter. Three full winters without a three inch snow. I am expecting this streak to continue after tomorrows snow. There may be a thin band that gets 3″ or more? But, most areas will likely be in the dusting to 2″ range.

Kansas City Snowfall Forecast: Dusting to 3″ with most spots receiving 2″ or less!

Storm #2: Monday

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The trend on this model is strongly in the warmer direction in our area. Just yesterday morning the models had this system tracking much farther to the southwest. The trend is in this farther northeast direction. This is the storm that will become another majorly impacting storm beginning around Iowa and then really blowing up in the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. It is just not fair, is it? Look at this forecast map from the overnight 06z NAM model. The other models have strongly trended in this direction as well:

At midnight Sunday night warmer are will be drawn into the warm sector. It will likely warm up into the 40s near Kansas City by midnight, which will be Sunday and Mondays high temperatures before that strong cold front moves through. Iowa would be the target and Kansas City would likely only have a band of rain, showers, or possibly even a thunderstorm.

Let’s see how all of the other models roll in this morning. It certainly appears it will snow Saturday. Yes, there is still some doubt.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We have a lively discussion going on right now on Weather2020.com if you want to join in.

Gary

Winter is Not Over Yet!

Good Wednesday,

The week started with tornadoes and all forms of severe weather and it will end with a blast of cold and chance of snow.  This is called March Weather Madness!  So, lets go through the next few days.

TODAY: The ground is still dry as we have another day of sun, wind, low humidity and temperatures around 70°.  So, we remain in a high fire danger.  This week more people have died from wildfires than tornadoes, ponder that for a few minutes. It is a miracle there were no deaths Monday night as we had a nighttime, fast moving severe weather event with 80-90 mph winds and tornadoes.

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THURSDAY: This will be another mostly nice day as highs reach to around 70°.  There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening that could produce large hail.  It looks like they will affect locations 50-100 miles south of I-70 or even further south, near I-44.  A strong cold front is approaching from the north.

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FRIDAY: This will be a dry day as colder air comes pouring in from the north.  Our highs will be in the 40s as the sun will still be mostly out.  Arctic air is lurking in the northern Plains.

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SATURDAY: Ok, here we go.  A storm system will be tracking quickly from northwest to southeast as the cold air is in place.  Our computer data is beginning to come together on solutions where we will see snow in the region.  The amounts are a question.  There will also be a rain-sleet-snow line and where that sets up will be critical in determining who sees the most snow.  The storm strength is also a factor.

The map below is for the morning Saturday.  You can see we could have snow in St. Joseph, sleet in KC and rain in Olathe.   This is far from set in stone.

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SATURDAY MIDDAY-AFTERNOON:  On this solution you can see that the rain-sleet-snow lines shift south.  This is going to be an interesting day.  You may wonder if the snow will stick to the roads.  If the snow comes down hard enough and it occurs early in the morning, it most certainly will as air temperatures in the snow and sleet areas will be mainly in the 20s.  If the temperatures drop to the low 20s, it could stick to roads anytime of the day despite the March sun angle and previous warmer days.  How much snow could fall?  This storm has potential to bring more than 2-3″ in some small bands.  If the sky clears Saturday night, then lows Sunday morning in locations that saw snow could drop to 5°-15°!

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Have a great rest of your week and bring the boots, coats and gloves back out.

Jeff

Wow! What a Night

Good Tuesday,

I hope everyone stayed safe last night as the line of high winds, hail   and tornadoes roared through.  I lived here my whole life and cannot remember a severe weather event that did this much major structural damage across the entire metropolitan KC area.  It is nothing short of a miracle that there were no serious injuries or deaths.

MARCH 6TH TOTAL SEVERE REPORTS

Now, what is next?  Today we have a high fire danger as despite the rain last night it was only .10″ to .50″, so the ground is quite dry and we are for more wind and low humidity.  Wednesday and Thursday will be nice days, but winter is trying to return after a long absence.  Yes, there is a chance of snow Saturday and we will be tracking this through the week.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this weather March Madness.

Have a great day.

Jeff