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Calming Down For A Little While

Good morning bloggers,

I am heading off to Raleigh, NC for the annual AMS Broadcast conference.  Jeff and JD will be filling in for me this week. The weather is finally calming down and drying out. How many completely sunny days have we had?  It did rain after midnight, but officially with it being 06z as the start time for the National Weather Service 24 hour day, it didn’t rain today.  It still rained 6 out of the first 8 days of this month, after 27 of 31 days in May. So, add it up, that’s 33 of the last 39 days where rain has fallen at KCI Airport.  You could make an argument that it rained early this morning in the metro, so we are really around 34 out of 39. Either way, we are now up to 3.70″ in June, after 10.25″ in May. Wow!

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So, we have a drying trend. It will be dry for a few days and the grass is going to grow. Get out the mowers. It is so lush and green out there.  On the Weather2020 site we are unveiling some pretty cool things that are in the works in forecasting for short to long range.  Here is one of the maps that is automated and just based on the LRC:

LRC Automated Forecast May_June

As you can see on this past and future projection of the temperatures, the cold phase is now ending and we are moving into that warm phase part of the pattern. In May both the cold phase and the warm phase were wet, but the cold phase was wetter and that part of the pattern will return in July.   On this computer generated temperature forecast you can see the past success, and the future forecast. We are using the LRC Cycle to create this product. Don’t forget the Dog-n-Jog is this Sunday morning on the Plaza. You can register now at HSGKC.org, here is the link:  Register for the Dog-n-Jog I will be there with my new dog SUNNY!

Have a great day!!!  And, comments are still off. Our webmaster has decided to keep the comments off for now. We will be revisiting this later in the month.  We are trying to create a positive experience for all of us in this blog space. If you have any questions you can email me at gary.lezak@kshb.com!

Gary

Quick Sunday evening update

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10:30p Update
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Well, better late than never I suppose! The line finally got its act together right at 10p. Now, it’s a pretty healthy line that’s sagging to the Southeast.
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Heavy rain and thunder seems to be about the worst this line has to offer. I cannot rule out one or two slightly stronger storms, but I really feel the overall severe threat remains low. Still, some flash flooding is possible. Stay alert. This activity should be gone and out of the area after about 1am.

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8:45p Update
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As we continue to go into the evening, I am still thinking the overall threat is coming to a close. The atmosphere just has not been able to produce strong thunderstorms this evening in our area.
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The radar picture above shows how the line has really yet to fill-in between Central KS and Northeast MO. At this point, I am wondering if it will at all. However, there is still some time for something to pop up.

As of 8:45p, there are the counties still in the Thunderstorm Watch:
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I expect more counties to be dropped as we go through the evening. And I would not be surprised at all if the whole thing is canned in the next couple of hours. Time will tell!

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7:30p Update
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The SPC has issued a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the counties in yellow until 3am.
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On the radar, it does not look all that impressive. We continue to monitor to see if storms will blossom up and form a line from roughly Salina, KS to Kirksville, MO.
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The greatest threat tonight would be hail near 1″ in size and some wind gusts near 50-60mph. We will continue to keep our eyes on things for you!

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5:30p Update
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The Storm Prediction Center is talking about the possibility of issuing a watch for the area highlighted below. It’s conditional on if the current thunderstorms continue to mature and grow.
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We lack the overall shear needed for bigtime storms, plus the cold front pressing South is not all that strong, which is a limiting factor. However, never say never. As it typical this time of year, the “magic” hours of 6-8pm will be telling for development. I will continue to monitor and keep you posted.

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Original Entry: 4:50p
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As expected, slow-moving cold front is touching off some thunderstorms this afternoon. We had the hottest day of the year so far in Kansas City as well, which is helping to fuel the thunderstorm potential.
Currently, a severe thunderstorm watch is in place for Northern and Northeastern Missouri. We also have a flash flood watch in place for Metro KC and points West/South.
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This radar snapshot gives an idea of where things have fired up thus far.
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I expect the line to slowly move/drift to the South as the night goes on. In general, this is what I am thinking.
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The biggest threat will be flooding. I cannot rule out a few storms that try to produce wind near 50-60mph or even hail near quarter size.
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Once we get into tomorrow, we’re done with the rain for a few days. Then, we crank up the heat! Temperatures look to push the 90 degree mark on Tuesday and then break it on Wednesday.
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We really could use the time to dry out from all the rain. And, some could use the dry conditions to get those lawns taken care of!
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Of course, storm chances come right back into the forecast as we hit the weekend. It only figures!

Our team is keeping eyes on everything tonight. Our news crews are out too, as we have everything in place to keep you updated on these storms. Be sure to stick with us on air and online for update. I will update this blog post as needed with any new information as it comes in. As always, keep tabs on me on Twitter (@jdrudd) for various small updates.

-JD

One More Chance of Thunderstorms

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are having a dry morning for the first time in many days.  Now, we will not be able to go through the day without a chance of thunderstorms.  The best chance of thunderstorms is after 4 PM.  If you are headed to the “K” it will be dry, very warm and muggy for the game.  This will be a good pool day, but keep an eye to the sky  after 4-5 PM.

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Some of the thunderstorms later today and tonight will have the potential to produce quarter sized hail and wind gusts over 55 mph.  We are in a slight risk of severe weather.

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SEVERE THREATS:  The tornado threat is near zero, you can never say zero, but it is as close as it gets to zero.  The biggest issue will be the flooding as the ground cannot hold one more drop.  So, even 15-30 minutes of rain at a rate of 1-2″ per hour could cause an issue.

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH:  Remember 6″ of water can disable a car.  “Turn Around Don’t Drown”.  We will have to watch for areas of training echoes.  This could become a huge problem in some spots if the echoes train for 1 hour.

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6 PM SUNDAY: The first round of thunderstorms will be possible at this time as a weak front heads this way.

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1030 PM SUNDAY: There will be other rounds of thunderstorms possible until this weak front drifts by.

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8 AM MONDAY: Look at this.  The rain is over and this will begin a 4 day stretch with no chance of rain and highs in the 80s, finally!

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JD Rudd will have an update on air at 5 and 10 PM and online this evening and night at www.kshb.com/weather.  He will also update the blog.

Have a great day.

Jeff

 

Finally feeling more like June

After another morning of rain & thunderstorms, we look to flip the pattern on its ear for Sunday. Well….sort of.

I do expect a small area of rain and thunderstorms to develop late this evening and overnight. Those should hug the Iowa/Missouri line, with the bulk of the activity more North of that boundary. Our latest version of Powercast picks up on this…
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That action will push almost straight East given the change in flow aloft. Therefore, I do not see that having an impact on Kansas City (or really anywhere South of Highway 36) overnight. So for those up early Sunday, you should expect a dry morning.
However… a weak boundary–which technically is a cold front–will push across the area Sunday afternoon from Northwest to Southeast. This will be the focal point for late day thunderstorms. Again, Powercast comes though picking up on this activity.
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The Storm Prediction Center does have us in a “Slight Risk” for storms on Sunday.
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The main threat would be for hail near quarter size and some wind gusts near 50-60mph. Any isolated supercells could be capable of producing a tornado, so that is something we will have to watch out for.
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Of course, given the amount of rain we have seen, flooding is going to be a concern too. Please be mindful of flash flooding, especially if the storms happen to pass over the same areas through the evening (something we call “training”).
That line would then push to the South as the night goes on and be out of our coverage area around the midnight hour.
This is what I think when it comes to timing of those thunderstorms.
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And then, folks, we finally look to shake this wet pattern.
As we go more into the week, the first half (at this point) is looking to be warm and dry; something that resembles June! These would be a great couple of days to mow the lawn or just jump into the pool.
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In case you are curious, we are already on pace to have ourselves a wet June. The average rainfall at KCI for the entire month is 5.29″. So as you can see….
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We’re already on pace to surpass that number. More rain chances come back just in time for next weekend. Guidance suggesting that we’ll see thunderstorms Friday & Saturday. However, we’re a week away from that and things are still subject to change.

Enjoy the evening tonight and we’ll be here, keeping you informed tomorrow as that next round of thunderstorms works its way through.

Go Sporting!
-JD

Another Day, Another Thunderstorm

Good Saturday bloggers,

Another round of showers and thunderstorms has moved through this morning.  This is not nearly as ferocious as the ones from the past week, but even one drop is too much in spots.  If you are headed to the “K” the rain will be over and the game will be played.  There is a 10% chance of a rogue downpour this afternoon, but the Royals will get played.  The Sporting KC game will not have to deal with any rain, great weather to watch a soccer game.

These are pictures from about 7 AM Saturday.  This is a shelf cloud which is the leading edge of the rain cooled air at KCI.

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The main activity later today and night will occur along I-80 as the pattern begins to shift.  So, we will have a dry and muggy Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The slight risk of severe weather today does clip northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.  Some of the thunderstorms to the north tonight, could sag south, but will likely stay away from KC.  The main severe threat is large hail and gusty winds over 55 mph.

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On Sunday there is a slight risk of severe weather in our area.  The timing is for later tomorrow afternoon and night as a cold front moves south.  Some of the thunderstorms may contain quarter sized hail and wind gusts over 55 mph.  Also, there will be more heavy downpours so flooding will be a concern.

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After the front goes by, the weather will calm down and next week is looking warmer and drier with perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday.

So, here is a weather timeline for the rest of the weekend.

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JD Rudd will have an update later today.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Didn’t we do this already?

More rain pushing through the area this morning. Surprised? Shouldn’t be! However, the difference today is that the rain is moving through sooner and will be out of here sooner… Still, don’t forget your canoe this morning.
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Okay, to be serious, here is a look at the radar. I’m happy to see the break in the rain to the Northwest. This means we *will* dry out for a bit today.
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This is a rough idea of how I see things playing out today.
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Once again, there could be some pop-up storms this afternoon, but mainly South of Kansas City. I cannot totally rule one out near the Stadium for the game tonight, but I think we’ll get by dry for the Royals game.
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Going into the weekend, it’s more of the same…
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We’ll likely see rain and thunderstorms in the morning that should taper off in the afternoon.
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I’ve tried to highlight the area that looks to have the best chance to see something of some kind Saturday morning…
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Severe threat would be low, but I would be concerned about more flooding. This is especially true for those who have already seen a lot of water over the last few days (say the Mosby to Excelsior Springs areas).

Speaking of, radar estimated rainfall has been impressive. This is how it stacks up over the last 72 hours.
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And with more rain on the way, we are going to see more flooding in a few areas. Be alert, be prepared, and know what to do if/when a warning is issued for your area.
If you’re wondering when we’ll shake this pattern… I’m right there with you. Guidance is tough to rely on right now; it’s have struggles just handling the short-term. I have a feel this overall theme is going to continue. Hopefully it does not turn into a soggy summer. My gut tells me we’ll kick this at some point, but it may take a while.

Stay dry and… LET’S GO ROYALS!
-JD

Thunderstorms moving in at 10 PM……Flash Flood Watch

Good late evening bloggers,

Rain and thunderstorms were moving in as I was writing this quick update to the blog at just before 10 PM. The Royals game, they were down 6-2 in the eighth, had rain starting. It’s a pretty large and growing area of thunderstorms. Flooding and lightning are the main risk types tonight.  Here were the rainfall totals just before the latest rain started falling:

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Thunderstorm chances will begin going down soon, but the wet pattern continues. Have a great night. We will monitor it closely and JD will update the blog in the morning.

Gary

Flash flooding an issue again today

Same song, second verse…a little bit louder and a little bit worse.
Here we go again with an overnight system leaving us soggy in the morning.
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As of 6:15am, the first round of rain is running through the central part of our coverage area. It’s right over the same area that got hit pretty hard on Wednesday. So flash flooding certainly an issue.
I am also watching that band of heavy rain in SE Nebraska. If it can maintain and hold together, it could move toward the Metro area by about the lunch hour. See, much like what we saw on Wednesday. Due to this, we do have a flash flood watch in place for the counties in green:
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Looking at the radar estimated rainfall from the last 48 hours, you can clearly see the hard-hit areas.
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More rain falling this morning and I’ve seen reports of 1-2″ in some areas (at least). This means some locations could pick up close to 10 inches of rainfall by the end of the day!

While the Storm Prediction Center has again placed us in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather….
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I am not too worried about traditional severe weather (hail/wind/tornadoes) at this point. I really think flooding is the main thing that we have to worry about.
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This is not to say we cannot get a couple stronger thunderstorms to bubble up, but flooding is what may cause most of the headaches.

Overall, here’s a timeline for how I see things playing out today:
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I do think we’ll have the same setup again tonight into Friday morning and perhaps again Friday night into Saturday. Part of this is due to the weak ridge over the Central Plains.
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What this does is carries weak waves up and over that ridge. Throw in the moisture in place and you’re making the recipe for nocturnal convection. While this (for us) does not carry an overall big severe weather threat, it does bring all that rain which adds up.

So if you’re thinking about the weekend, we will likely see morning rain and storms Saturday. However there is a chance we can start to shake this pattern on Sunday.
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As always, we will continue to keep you updated. Be sure you have our mobile apps and use the interactive radar on KSHB.com/weather to track the rain as it moves toward your area.

Stay dry and… GO ROYALS!
-JD

Flash Flood Watch

Good late evening bloggers,

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A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for tonight and possibly into the next few days. We had excessive rain in a few spots, and new thunderstorms were developing as I was writing this at 9 PM.  Excelsior Springs may have had as much as 6 or 7 inches of rain early on Thursday, which didn’t show up on this rainfall chart. You can see the tornado watch to the west of KC and these thunderstorms are moving north to northeast very slowly:

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The thunderstorms were moving north in response to the weak flow aloft. There is a weak ridge aloft that has formed over the plains, and it seems to have set up perfectly to place Kansas City near a zone where these complexes will form overnight and then turn over the ridge and drift southeast early in the morning. This is what happened today.

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The map above shows new thunderstorms forming near the Nebraska border. The map below was snapped just 10 minutes earlier before the new development formed:

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This next complex is likely coming our way. The models have been of very little help. This mornings thunderstorms were not forecast well at all. There was an outflow boundary that moved south and west of KC, and it appears we will be in the right spot for a few of these complexes of thunderstorms and rainfall amounts could exceed this forecast below, possibly by a lot in some spots.

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Have a great evening. JD Rudd is filling in for Kalee Dionne the next two days early. He will get the blog updated on Thursday.  Have you tried to beat us at forecasting long range. We had our first Weather2020 Long Range Forecast Contest that ended last week and many of you did great. Go to Weather2020.com to enter.  We are forecasting for the last week of June into the Fourth of July!

Gary

Here comes the rain again…

Look up the song, learn it, and sing it with me: “who’ll stop the rain…”

Radar snapshot from this morning shows us an MCS rolling out of Nebraska and into our area. This is going to give many areas North of I-70 a good shot at rain and thunderstorms.
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I am not expecting severe weather, but some heavy rain and some window-rattlers are likely. Notice the areas that I have highlighted. These will be the areas to watch as this activity progresses across the area.
*Area 1 is moving off to the East and has no severe threat.
*Area 2 is pushing more to the East/Southeast and should move just North of the Metro. Again, not expecting severe, but the thunder/lightning may get your attention.
*Area 3 is the one that may clip the Northern part of Metro KC around the lunch hour today. Heavy rain plus thunder & lightning would be the main threats.

Guidance clears this activity out of the immediate area around 2-3pm this afternoon. This, then, could set us up to see some sunshine returning in the afternoon. Not really a good thing. It could add instability to the atmosphere and lead to a chance for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has part of our area in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather, with hail & wind the primary threat.
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Again, this would be for the round of activity expected after 8pm tonight. Latest guidance says it’s not into our area until after 10pm. Nonetheless, still good to keep eyes to the sky as conditions can change quickly this time of year. Based on what I’ve seen, here is how the rain/storm chances look for the KC area.
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It’s that time of year where the heat of the day will lead to pop-up storms so you have to make sure you’re prepared and have a way to get weather updates.
Speaking of heat… we’ll be in the 80s this week. Here is our temperature trend for today:
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Kalee is singing at the Royals game tonight and then has the rest of the week off. I’ll be in for her tomorrow and Friday, watching the radar with anything that may pop up. Jeff & Gary will be in later today with the latest forecast information. So again, make sure you stick with us and we’ll keep you updated on the forecast.

GO ROYALS!
-JD