Quantcast

Snowfall Update Monday Morning

Good Morning Bloggers!

The band of snow has moved south of the metro area and we will be dry for the rest of the day.  There is still snow from Paola, KS to Sedalia, MO and southeast.  There is some pockets of 1″-2″ an hour that is northeast of Clinton, MO.

1

 

This was a very tricky storm because it formed on top of us, but we saw 1″-4″ of snow area wide.  I have made a few graphics with the snowfall totals on them, but would love to get yours totals.  Feel free to leave a comment below with how much snow you saw at your house.

SNOWFALLREPORTS

SNOWFALLREPORTS1 SNOWFALLREPORTS2

 

We will see a quick moving shortwave plunge  southeast tomorrow morning that may bring some light snow to the western edge of the viewing area, but it will be light and mainly KC Metro to the west would see the snow.

Another cold blast for Wednesday with very bitter cold air in place through Friday.  A lot of questions still about the weekend forecast because the GFS has us under the influence of high pressure and anything that develops is farther to the south.  The Euro has a low that moves in out of the southwest and brings a chance for rain/sleet/snow on Saturday.  So we will keep an eye on this throughout the week, but as for now enjoy the snow!

 

Kalee Dionne

Sunday snowfall – running entry

====
11am Monday Update
====
Just for reflection, and in case anyone checks back on this entry, here are some snowfall reports as of 8am…
Reports 8am Mon

And a map of snowfall based on reports to the NWS as of about 11am.
Snow Map Mon

Remember, your backyard may differ slightly. People can measure snow in different ways and it can be very easy to skew amounts by a half inch or so.
For some, this event did not pan out as they had hoped (that sleet is still leaving me shaking my head). For others, it was right on the money. At our studio on the plaza, we picked up 2.5″; excellent for the forecast of 2-3″ for the KC Metro. And, it conveniently matches up with what I showed on air last night.
10p Snow KC Hourly

Hey, I gotta take a win when I can get it! I realize the forecast didn’t pan out completely in some areas. But taking a step back, the broad brush forecast for our viewing area was for nothing to five inches. Don’t get ahead of me here…. Yes, that is the wide scope. Yes, that could mean anything. But I did not go on air and simply say “hey, a dusting to five inches of snow. Back to you!”. No. We then narrowed it down by areas to a range. We showed snowfall maps; said to take them as a guide. The overall feeling was that far Northern MO would see nothing while amounts would get higher the farther South you moved down the state. Once more, it was not 100% perfect. No snow forecast ever is when you put it under a microscope!

There will be critics that say we missed this because on Friday some called for little to no snow. This is true; some did do that, but not all. This is another snow event to learn from. Me personally, it seems this year whatever the guidance says about 48 hours away…trash it. It does fine at 60 hours and then again at 36 hours. This is something I will keep tucked away in my little pea brain for our next snow event.

Enjoy your Monday,
-JD

====
10:20p Update
====
Lots of photos of the snow tonight on social media. Thanks to everyone that submitted pictures. If you can, get a picture with the snow & a ruler or some standard way to measure it, that will help us all out a lot!

In the meantime, we will be on air around 10:30p, as soon as the SNL special wraps up. Radar continues to show snow. A quick reminder that our weather page has interactive radar. Works on your mobile device too!

Kalee will be in bright and early tomorrow with snowfall totals and more. The biggest thing I want to stress tonight is:
Be careful on the roads. Please. Maybe set your alarm 20-30 minutes early now, give yourself some time in the morning.
2 PM
Side streets and sidewalks will be the most hazardous, as well as on/off ramps.

Still expecting the snow to taper off for the Metro area by about 5am or so. Catch my latest forecast coming up on air around 10:45pm tonight. Thanks for hanging with me and watching the snow fall tonight. It’s amazing what the atmosphere can do, and this Earth for that matter. Something we have zero control over whatsoever. Sort of reminds us of our place. Just a little food for thought tonight.

Take care,
JD

====
9:15pm Update
====
Snow continues across the area at this hour, with the heavier returns showing up on the South side of Kansas City.
Radar

I know there are some who are still patiently waiting for their snow to fall. Keep in mind there is a larger band that stretches all the way back into Kansas and it’s drifting to the East.
6

There is still time for that snow to pass through overnight tonight. Latest guidance supports that theory as well.  So far, the reports via the NWS shape up like this:
SnowReports

Final, official numbers won’t be out until tomorrow once the snow is done. Keep in mind, your backyard ruler may differ and measuring on a grassy surface is never a good idea. There are ways to skew snowfall numbers, so use some caution!

====
7:50pm Update
====
Checking out the latest radar, we have snow falling now on the South side and North side of KC. The middle of the Metro is being left out right now.
Radar

Looking at the latest short-range HRRR guidance, it actually models this well and shows how that wedge of dry air may limit overall snowfall amounts for some areas.
HRRR1
That little notch or wedge has been consistent on the output today, but its placement has been a bit shifty. Now that we are within 12 hours of all this wrapping up, I would expect (and hope) the guidance will all fall in line.

Looking at the simulated radar from the HRRR model (animation, give it time to load), it seems to do a pretty good job with how this may play. Still, there is time for things to change just a hair.
hrrr_2015021522_ref_mc

====
6:50pm Update
====
I will tell you, the fact we’re getting sleet in parts of the Metro is upsetting and baffling at the same time. Full disclosure: some of the guidance hinted at this yesterday, but we discounted it since it’s 16 degrees at the surface!!

Look at the upper air sounding for Johnson County Airport.
JoCoSounding

The red line is temperature. As you can see, it does not cross the 0°(32°F) line. It doesn’t even really get close! Yet, we’re seeing sleet. There has to be something we’re missing here. I’ll keep looking to see if I can find out a reason why this is not falling as snow.
On another note, this sounding also shows the lower level of the atmosphere is relatively dry (the gap between the red line and the blue line, which is dew point).

====
6:30pm Update
====
Let’s take a look at the latest radar picture…
1

The moderate band of snow continues between KCI and St. Joseph. Looking back, the guidance handled this pretty well. It had been picking up on a heavier band in the area we’re seeing now.
As far as reports, this one came in via Twitter at 5:30pm from St. Joseph:
St Joe Snow - 5-30

So it appears St. Joseph will wind up with around 1-2″, which falls into the going snow forecast.

Now we look ahead to that band sliding South and impacting Kansas City.
You may also notice there is a band taking shape just South of I-70. Earlier we had reports of sleet and pellets in KC. While the radar is showing it as snow, it is likely still coming down as sleet at this hour. I expect that to change over to snow in the next hour or so. Then, we should start seeing snowfalls accumulate for Kansas City over the next few hours.

This my thinking on how the snow reports may stack up as the night goes on in Kansas City. Use this as a guide, it likely will not be spot-on and I’ll probably tweak it once the snow starts falling… I’m just giving you an idea for now.
77

Please keep your snow reports coming. Pictures work great; you can send them to us on Twitter or email them to us. Thanks for all the reports in advance!

====
4:45pm Update
====

Just to give an update, the 18z GFS model is showing 3 inches for KC, nothing higher that others may be claiming. And, the latest RAP model (21z) is showing smaller amounts. Overall, the forecast of 2-3″ appears to be in good shape as of right now.
Below is the GFS…
18z GFS
And this is the RAP…
21z RAP SNOW

We need to watch the heavier band of snow to the North. There is still a chance that loses a bit of steam before it gets to KC. If so, the amounts would be much closer to 2″ vs 3″. While it’s important to keep track of some of the models, ones like the NAM & GFS don’t matter as much at this point. We now have access to hourly RAP, HRRR, & 3-hour RPM data that will be much more helpful.

I’ll be on air shortly for our 5pm newscast with more details.

======
Original entry – 3:30pm
======

Well, here we go. I will keep updating this blog with new information as the evening wears on. Be sure to follow me on Twitter as well for various updates here and there.

As of 3pm, reports of light snow began coming in around the St. Joseph area. Echoes have been on the radar for a while, but as expected, the lower levels of the atmosphere were rather dry. It now appears we’re getting full saturation. This is the latest Weather Track radar image:
1

I have been combing through all the latest guidance and upper air observations. Given what I have seen, this is my timeline of events for tonight in the greater KC Metro area.
4

As far as amounts go, like I mentioned previously, I have upped totals by about an inch overall. There is still a plus/minus 0.50″ on this I think. And, as I typically say, someone will get “plus two”. That will depend on where any heavier bands setup and where dry air may be overtaken faster.
3 PM

I will break down all of this and take you hour-by-hour during our 5pm newscast, so be sure to watch. Otherwise keep checking back here on the blog for updates as well as on Twitter. Basic takeaway: St. Joseph should wind up with around 1-2, perhaps even 3″. KC Metro with 2-3″ and an isolated 3.5″ report is possible. South of Harrisonville, there may be a little “notch” of lesser amounts, around 1-2″. We’ll need to see if that notch shifts at all. Again, we’ll look at all of this during the newscast at 5pm.

One other note, you may have to allow some extra time Monday morning. While the snow should be gone by around 5am or so, there may still be some snow covered roads (most likely side streets). Crews will get to them as soon as they can. The good news here: this is a light, fluffy snow so there should not be too many problems. Either way, take it easy.
2 PM

Enjoy the snow,
-JD

The Snow is on The Way

Good Sunday bloggers,

The data Saturday morning was suggesting the storm would not get its act together until it was well south.  So, we reduced the snow chance.  Then comes the 18Z data, 0Z data and 6Z data which have all shown the storm to form north of KC before it shifts south.  So, the snow is back in the forecast, for now!  The chance is back to near 100%.  That being said, there are still some tricks to watch for.  How long will it take for the snow to saturate the lower levels?  Where will the initial band of snow form? If it takes longer to saturate or it forms further south, then our amounts will be less.  As is we are going a dusting to 3″.

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory, starting at 3 PM.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for southern Missouri where more snow and ice is expected.

1

This is still a storm that will be forming over head.  This makes the forecast tough.  It is easier for Boston as the storm for them formed 1000 miles to their west.  They could see it coming down broadway.  This is one of the reasons our region is one of the toughest places to forecast the weather.  We are trying to forecast something that does not exist yet!

Here is our latest thinking on timing and amounts.

NOON SUNDAY: There is not one radar echo.  It is dry, cloudy and cold.

2

 

245 PM SUNDAY: The first snow echoes begin to show up and a few snowflakes begin to fall in the city.

3

 

630 PM SUNDAY: Look at how fast the snow grows and intensifies.  The heaviest snow is along the I-70 corridor.  It will be a good night to watch the SNL 40th Anniversary special on 41 Action News.

4

 

1245 AM MONDAY:  The heavier snow lessens as the whole storm shifts south.

5

 

7 AM MONDAY: The storm is gone and we are back to no snow echoes.

10

How much snow are we expecting? This is our latest thinking.   We are going for a dusting to 3″ across most of the viewing area. heaviest south, which is different from the last few events.  These bands can shift north or south by 50-100 miles so we will be watching this closely.  JD Rudd will be in this afternoon with an update.

6

 

Have a great day and enjoy the snow

Jeff

Seeking the Sunday snow

======
Update – 11am Sunday
======
A bit interesting this morning seeing others scramble to catch up to what’s been going on over the last 24 hours. To be fair, this little system has been quite troublesome and at the end of the day, we’re trying to figure out something that isn’t even there yet (if that makes sense). To put it another way: it’s like trying to say what your 6-year-old child’s GPA will be after sophomore year of high school.

In any event, let’s scope out the latest info from the guidance. Up first, the 12z offering from the GFS
12zGFS-SUN

Now the latest look from the 12z NAM. And despite some previous comments, this is not suggesting huge amounts of snow for KC.
12zNAM-SUN

Here’s a closer look, via the 12z 4km high-resolution NAM
12zNAM4m-SUN

The RPM 12z run is doing something a little interesting…This is the raw output, not cleaned up for TV use.
12zRPM-SUN

And we’re able to get a peek at the short-range, hourly models like the RAP now. This is the 15z offering, which only goes through 9z (3am) Monday.
15zRAP-Sun

It would seem the RPM and the RAP are actually backing off higher amounts just a bit. When I say “higher” I’m talking the difference of 3″ of snow in KC vs 1.5-2″ of snow in KC.

Let’s not forget the handy meteogram way of looking at the snowfall…
Meteogram
This plot would be valid for KCI and uses a 13:1 snowfall ratio. Simply playing the average off of everything, it would suggest between 2.5 and 3.5″ of snowfall. Dry air is still a factor in this too, so we have to allow for that a little bit.

MY OWN PERSONAL OPINIONS….
I’m posting these model images so you can see the agreement and finer details of the guidance. Typically within 12-18 hours of an event, you’d hope to see some good consistency. The fact that we have some various differences continues to make the overall forecast a challenge. Personally, I do not fancy myself a “model chaser” that waits for every new run and then quickly updates my forecast. Patience, consistency, and responsible thought are all good ideas to keep in mind. As you’ve seen in the last two days, model chasing can lead to some confusing forecasts. My overall thoughts have not wavered too much from when I put out my first snowfall map Friday morning.
Of course, there are times where you simply have to “give up the ghost” and overhaul the entire forecast. I don’t believe I am at that point.

At this stage, I am thinking that I may be upping my previous forecast numbers by about an inch all around. I will make that final decision later on this afternoon once I dig deeper through the guidance of the upper atmosphere and check out the most recent observations at the surface and aloft.
I have always taken pride in my snow forecasting abilities. Keep in mind, I did this job for several years in North Dakota &  learned a few tricks (the hard way). While I am not perfect (nobody ever will be), I had a good track record while in ND and in Wichita. This season in KC has been a bit of a challenge due to us not getting an actual system that we can track. Instead, we’re getting these little waves that develop right over top of us. Makes a guy like me grumble a bit! And, as I have read, it makes a few of you grumble too when the snow doesn’t fall.

For now, I still think we should all plan on seeing a little snow starting this afternoon with the bulk of it arriving later tonight into the wee hours of Monday morning.

I will likely start a new running blog post this evening, once the 5pm newscast is finished. Keep checking back and be sure to follow me on Twitter for my instant analysis and free-flowing thoughts!
-JD

======
Update – 11:55pm Saturday
======
I just looked at the 00z Euro model and while I am not allow to post the output, I can tell you it’s in line with the other 00z guidance. At the same time, the 03z version of the RPM just finished. Here is what it is saying now (this is the raw output):
3z RPM

Oddly enough, this is very, very similar to what the Euro was suggesting. However, the Euro amounts were about half of the RPM’s.
So it is possible we may need to bring the snow more to the North in the forecast map. No matter what, Southern & Southeastern Missouri will still be the areas that see the highest snowfall amounts.

Jeff will be in the office later tonight and on air tomorrow morning with the latest. Keep checking the forecast on our website as well on air as we track this next round of winter weather.

======
Update – 10:10pm Saturday
======
Based on recent data and overall “feeling”, I haven’t altered the forecast too much. But we’ll need to stay on our toes in the event the wiggle digs through the area just a tab bit harder. That’s all it will take to tack on an extra inch to snowfall amounts.
9

For those playing along, here is the latest 00z GFS snow output:
Sun 00z GFS
Maybe I am in denial or just chicken, but there is now a consensus for 2-4″ around KC Metro based on all the 00z data (save the Euro). Problem is: I still don’t trust it all the way. Therefore, I’ll stick with what I’m showing in the snowfall forecast. For now. Stay with us for updates.

======
Update – 8:45pm Saturday
======
Well, isn’t this something to laugh at. I guess you could say I was half right. New 00z data is rolling in (or trolling in) and check this out. The NAM says we’re back to getting nothing, a la Willy Wonka:
SUN 00zNAM at 6p

But wait… that’s just through 6pm. Look what happens *after* 6pm, through 6am Monday…
SUN 00zNAM at 6aMon

Ahhhh. So, could it be that this thing is just pumping the brakes a little and arriving a little later? If so, that means we may have some trouble Monday morning on the roads.
This would suggest around 2″ of snow for Kansas City, with amounts under 1″ in the gray areas.

Meanwhile, over at the funny farm, the RPM has decided to go “Oprah” on us and just handing out snowfall like it’s going out of style.
00z RPM Snow Sat
Okay, perhaps I am exaggerating a little bit. The RPM does seem to have some agreement with the NAM though, if you look closely enough. And it too says the snow arrives a bit later.

One thing I also noticed is that on the simulated radar product of the NAM, it claims we have rain falling at Noon. I don’t really see how that happens with temps in the low 20s. Unless it’s trying to suggest a little mist/drizzle.
The RPM says it’s snow all day long. Thus, the higher totals. Wow. As you can see, not an easy forecast at all.

At this point, I’ll be curious to see what side of the fence the GFS falls on. And then, around midnight, I’ll be able to look at the detailed Euro output and see what it decides to do. Perhaps all the guidance will finally start to line up. Stay with this post (bookmark it if you must) as I will continue to update this one tonight and into Sunday.

In the meantime, I may do some fine-tuning to the going snow forecast. I’ll post that map here later on, but I may be working on it right up through newscast time.

======
Original post – 6pm Saturday
======

It may be tough to find a meteorologist in our area right now that hasn’t thought about screaming out loud in the last 36 hours. The snow forecast for Sunday continues to be a challenge and in some internet geek-speak, it’s like we’re being trolled by the atmosphere.

Before we dive into the snow, let’s not lose sight of the cold air rushing into the area right now. Check out this temperature spread across the region tonight:
4 (1)
It will be cold tonight, with temps in the single digits. Throw in a little East breeze at 10-20 miles per hour, and we’ll have wind chills which slip below zero. If you’re heading out, grab the coat/hat/gloves. Highs on Sunday will only be in the upper teens to low 20s at best.

All right then, now onto this snow business–because there’s no business like snow business, I know.

Let me set the stage a little bit: what we are dealing with is simply just a little wave in the atmosphere. A “wiggle” in the flow. This is not a full-fledged storm system. What the East coast has been dealing with, those are actual systems… storms with a defined core of low pressure and (for the most part) pretty easy to find/track/plan for.
In our case, these little wiggles in the atmosphere are harder to pin down and can often lead to some headache. Not to mention, it causes the models do flip-flop. Perhaps you’ve seen this recently!

Okay, so, where do we stand as of tonight? Almost back to where we were early Friday afternoon. Let’s take a look at the most recent snowfall output from the various model guidance, since that’s what many like to see.
Here is the 12z GFS. Little if anything for KC:
Sun 12z GFS
This is the 18z NAM. There is hope, Obi-Wan:
Sun 18z NAM

The 18z RPM is going big or going home… or going from nothing to something.
18z RPM SNOW

And this is the UKMet model, which is worth keeping tabs on. Interesting little stripe it has along I-70.
Sun 12z UKMet

I can tell you that the Euro model is a blend of the RPM and the NAM, still suggesting the higher snowfall amounts to be in Southern Missouri. For Kansas City, it is suggesting we see around two to three inches of snowfall. Amounts in Southern MO would be over six inches.

To be honest, I would not be surprised if some of the 00z guidance was to do another flip-flop and go back to saying little to no snow for tomorrow. Trolling!

Based on what I’ve seen today, this is my going snowfall forecast for Sunday.
7

Just because I have the 2nd shade of blue over KC and it’s the 1-2″ range, does not mean we are promised 2″ of snow. It’s a range. And, the we’ll likely be closer to the 2″ mark the farther South you go in KC.
Like always, this is still subject to change a little bit as new information arrives. Confidence in this overall forecast is growing, but there are still some uncertainties to worry about. Again, this is not a classic “storm system” that would give us a better idea of what it’s going to do. It’s almost like trying to guess which way a rabbit will turn while chasing it.

Personally, I believe that our odds of seeing a dusting to a half inch of snow in Metro KC are pretty good. Now, I want to believe we have good odds of even seeing an inch to an inch and a half. I also have a gut feeling of someone near Metro picking up around two to two and a half.
My only hesitations with putting that into the “official forecast” are this:
-We’ve been robbed before this year, many times
-There’s not a lot of overall moisture for this whole thing to play with
-Little consistency in the model guidance

Perhaps this will better convey my thoughts on the snow, simply in terms of the greater Kansas City area:
8

Like I wrote in the blog the other day, with our temperatures will be in the upper teens to low 20s Sunday. This could be ideal to generate higher snowfall ratios. That could lead to slightly higher amounts even though the overall moisture is lacking. But cold air is also dry air and if we cannot keep the lower levels of the atmosphere saturated, then we won’t get any snow to the ground. It truly takes a special alignment of variables to produce snowfall here.

We will continue to watch all of this and give updates as it all unfolds. Be sure to check back in on air and online. For right now, you’ll have to excuse me while I go outside and scream…
-JD

EDIT:

This is a great little “reminder” via meteorologist Rick Smith. Mr. Smith is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma.  Some excellent points made here. Click to enlarge the picture.

REMINDERS-SNOW

Snow Is Back Into The Forecast

Good morning,

Wow, here we go. It’s in, it’s out, it’s back in again, and I am talking about snow.  JD will write up a blog later this evening, but the models are trending towards the atmosphere moistening up and snow to develop right over KC Sunday afternoon:

1

It is now strongly trending towards an impacting snow event south of Kansas City over southern Missouri, but we may be in that developing zone. JD Rudd will update you later this evening. He is currently working on the 5 and 6 PM shows.  This latest NAM has a good 1 to 2 inch snowstorm Sunday evening. Crazy models, they have been throwing my A game off. Let’s see if we can narrow in on a  good forecast.

Gary

Valentine’s Day Arctic Blast

Happy Valentine’s day bloggers,

While today is for a warm heart, mother nature is not buying it.  An Arctic front will be blasting through before noon.  You will know when it arrives as winds will pick up from the north and gust to 35 mph.  Temperatures will fall from the 30s to the 20s then the teens this afternoon and evening as wind chills plummet to near zero, -10° this evening.  So, extra cuddling is advised tonight.

As I am writing this blog early Saturday, the Arctic front was roaring through Omaha.  Look as it was 0° in Minneapolis.

1

 

TODAY 1 PM: Temperatures will be in the mid 20s with wind chills getting close to zero as winds blow from the north with gusts to 35 mph.  A band of clouds will accompany the front, but no snow.

 

2

 

TODAY AT 8 pm: Temperatures will be in the low teens with wind chills near -10°.  Ouch!  Keep this in mind if you are headed out for Valentine’s day.  The low by Sunday morning will be 5° to 10°.  The temperature fall will stop as clouds increase.

3

 

Ok, so we have covered the cold.  What about the snow for Sunday?  Gary updated this last night before he was on at 10 PM last night.  The new data was suggesting we would see flurries or a dusting.  Well, the new overnight data is strongly continuing the trend of this snow not being more than flurries or a dusting.  We will watch it, but it does not look like much.

8 AM SUNDAY: The snow at this point looks promising as it moves in from the northwest.  Keep in mind temperatures will be near 10°, so any snow will stick instantly.  Look what happens by 11 AM

4

 

11 AM SUNDAY:  Where did the snow go?  It fell apart and we had flurries or a dusting.  Locations to the northeast received a tad more snow.  So, at this time this does not look like much.  This is what we have while Boston will be having a 12″ blizzard.  As Gary has been saying all winter…”We are not in the right spot.”

5

 

Here is our Sunday snowfall forecast.

6

Meteorologist JD Rudd will have an update later today.

Have a great weekend and happy Valentine’s day.

Jeff

New Data: No Snow

Good late Friday Night bloggers,

I might as well let you guys in on the new data before I come on the air. This is ridiculous, but the new data trended to ZERO!

2

 

Let’s see if this looks similar when the new data comes out in the morning. So,  even a dusting is almost a stretch, IF the new data is correct.

Have a great night. I am on the air in a few minutes and I have the tough task of explaining this ridiculous weather pattern. Oh, I wish I was in Boston!

Gary

Sunday snow update

Update from Gary:

Here is our first snowfall forecast map for this weak system:

2

The latest data was not very generous on snowfall amounts. Let’s look at the new data later tonight.

Previous entry below:

We’ve spent the afternoon looking over the latest forecast information, trying to zero-in on what to expect in terms of snowfall totals for Sunday. As many model-watchers and extreme hobbyists have probably noticed, this will be another “heartburn” forecast. Basically: while we are within 48 hours of the event, it is not a slam-dunk and there is still a bit of wiggle room for things to change slightly.

With that said, in this entry we’ll look at the latest snowfall output from the models, plus talk about the key role temperature may play for Sunday night.

I won’t bore you with maps showing the small piece of energy that is headed this way. Just know this is not a classic storm by any means. However, a little wave is going to slide through the area Sunday and produce the snow. There is still an issue on how strong it will be and where exactly it will go.

Starting out our model tour, please welcome the lovely 12z GFS to the runway:
12z GFS SNOW

Followed up by the 12z NAM:
12z Snow NAM

Now here is where it gets a little interesting. The new 18z NAM is hot off the press. Notice the difference?
18z Snow NAM

Below is the 18z RPM data, which I have been watching closely.
RPM Snow
The RPM has been consistent on indicating more of a NW to SE band of snowfall, whereas some of the other guidance is showing more in a West to East fashion.

Another useful tool is the Meteogram chart. This one via the fine folks at Iowa state. It plots all the model snowfall outputs onto a line…
Graph

The useful part of this is looking at the model average. Recent study (over the last few years) has been suggesting that the model average tends to wind up being a very close depiction of what actually happens. So in my opinion, it’s useful to make note of this. In our case, for Kansas City, we’re in the 1-2″ range.

The Weather Prediction Center also has some helpful information, such as probability maps of snowfall.
In this first map, we look at the odds of seeing at least 2″ of snow.
WPC Prob

Now, the odds of seeing at least 6″ of snowfall.
WPC Prob 6

So as you can tell, the trend continues to be for the heavier snowfall amounts to fall in Southern to Southeastern Missouri.

Another factor that must be considered is the temperature. The colder the air is, the higher the snow ratio becomes. One inch of liquid water converted to snow in an air temperature of 28° will yield a different snowfall amount than one inch of water in an air temperature of 20°.
Snow Ratio

Keep in mind that cold air will be racing into the area Sunday afternoon and evening. This means there is potential for heavier bands of snow to form later in the day. Of course by then, the bulk of the system would be Southern Missouri. Hence the probability of higher snowfall amounts.

Of course, as mentioned before, this is not a slam dunk. Think back to previous snow events this season. 48 hours away we saw the models doing one thing, only for that to change when we got to 24 hours away.
The takeaway here is that we have a good chance for snow on Sunday. However, the amounts will likely be small overall and there is still a fair chance that you may not get the snowfall you are hoping for or wanting. This has been the winter of bigger snow events missing our general area.

Meantime, Boston and the New England area will be bracing for another strong winter storm in less than a week from now. I’m willing to bet Boston sees over 100″ of snowfall this season.
BostonSnow

Gary will continue to update things on air and online tonight in terms of what we’ll see this weekend. Jeff will have fresh information Saturday morning, and I’ll be in tomorrow night at 5p, 6p, & 10p to provide more updates. Stick with us as we move through the weekend.
-JD

Snow Enters The Forecast

Good evening bloggers,

Remember now, here it is February the 12th and we are sitting 8.7″ of snow for the season. So, let’s be careful about getting too excited about any of these snow chances that will be showing up in the next two weeks.  The first one showing up is actually this evening, but this will be just a quick band that may clip northern Missouri. The more exciting potential arrives early on Sunday.  The set-up is becoming more interesting to me as it gets a bit closer.  Here are the things we are looking at right now:

  1. A strong cold front will move through on Valentine’s Day
  2. This cold front is sort of backing in, instead of blasting in.  In other words it is going to have a more north to northeast wind as it moves through Saturday night
  3. The flow will then become easterly to northeasterly at the surface and this is going to provide for some upsloping effect to our west and clouds will become quite extensive
  4. A disturbance aloft will be approaching Sunday and the conditions will likely come together for a nice band of snow to develop and it appears that it will target our area
  5. It is still early! So, let’s see how the models trend in the next 24 hours

Here is the cold front that is moving through on Valentine’s Day.  There may be a few brief snow showers or snow flurries as the front moves through:

1

This next forecast map is from our Powercast showing an area of snow developing early Sunday morning:

2

I just rendered this brand new Powercast:

3

I just had the tough task of describing our shaky chances for snow, while it’s easy in Boston. They are forecasting a blizzard, yet another major snowstorm.  For KC, the storm on Sunday is still a bit suspect and it will depend on a wave approaching the area on Sunday morning. Let’s look at the new data together tonight.

Gary

Cold Front Arrives Soon

Good late evening bloggers,

We finally identified the problems with the blog and everything is back up and running as usual.  We are so sorry for the inconvenience.  And, the weather is getting pretty exciting. As many of you have likely been paying attention, we have been forecasting the cold phase of this cycling weather pattern to return right around the 12th of the month, and here it is.  The models failed up until around two days ago, and now they are all pretty much in agreement. It is going to get very, very cold next week, possibly as cold as it has been all season. The lowest Kansas City has been this season has been 3 below zero.  Let’s see if it can go lower. It will probably depend on if we get some snow on the ground. Remember, we are in the same pattern, so don’t be shocked if we are again talking about a dusting to 4 inches on Monday.  At least it’s something to be excited about.

1

 

The entire pattern is going through a major transition, but it doesn’t matter which part of the pattern we are in for the northeastern part of the nation. Look at that storm forming on Valentine’s Day. Wow!  A big ridge will be strengthening off the west coast and this will be creating the conditions for the deep freeze sometime next week, with another blast of Arctic air a few days later.  There will be a few chances for snow, so I am increasing the chance of a snow day for the kids to 75% in the next two weeks.  And, here is a graphic I am showing tonight at 10 PM:

1

 

It’s great to have the blog back.  Have a great night and start to Thursday and we will get you updated later in the day on Thursday.

Gary