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Midwest Snowstorm

Good Saturday,

A storm system is evolving in the middle of the USA today.  It will bring a decent snowstorm to the Great Lakes and Midwest while we see clouds, perhaps a snowflake today and some drizzle Sunday as warmer air moves in.  Temperatures tonight will rise through the 30s so that by Sunday morning temperatures will be 35°-37°.  We do not see any big storm systems for the next 5-7 days as we remain on the edge of the Arctic air.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look this weather pattern.

Have a great weekend

Jeff

Cold But Nice For A Chiefs Victory

Good late afternoon bloggers,

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We did get our first snowfall yesterday, but unfortunately it was only 0.10″ in most spots. Some areas down to the south near Garnett, KS did get close to 1″.  And, now here we are with a nice and cold late afternoon and evening. The weather could be warmer, but at least it won’t be windy ro wet for the big game against the Raiders.

Go Chiefs!

The weather pattern is a cold one and we will be going in and out of the cold during the next two weeks at least. We will update you later in the week as this pattern continues to evolve, but no snow storms are showing up at this time.

Gary

Here come our first snowflakes!

Good late morning bloggers,

As of 10:20 AM we are finally getting reports of our first snowflakes near KC of the 2016-2017 winter. Take a look at the radar:

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We will be on live at 11 AM. The snowflake contest only ends if we receive 1″ in front of the KSHB-TV Studios. We believe it will fall short today, but let’s monitor it closely. We are expecting a dusting to 1/2″ out of this system.  We will look ahead to the Chiefs game forecast and the weather pattern on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

In A Holding Pattern

Good Wednesday,

To Snow or not To Snow? That is the question. We have much dry air at the low levels, so snowflakes aloft are evaporating before they reach the ground (Virga). Also, the snow echoes overhead are not strong enough and sustained enough to break through the dry air. We will be watching closely to see if the snow can increase enough to make it to the ground. Every hour that goes by between now and 4 PM with no snow, is a lean towards nothing or a few snowflakes. We are in a waiting game.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR: It shows snow returns.

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Right now we are experiencing virga.

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So, we wait and see if the snow can make it to the ground.

Have a great day.

Jeff

To Snow or Not to Snow

Good Tuesday,

We have been tracking the chance of snow for Wednesday for at least 10 days and now the day is almost here.  We have been going a dusting to 1″ for several days and this is where we still stand.  This is a small, fast-moving system and it will be fighting dry air at low levels.  So, the big question is how fast will the low levels saturate so that the snow can reach the ground?  There will likely be extensive radar echoes, but initially it will not reach the ground.  So, the faster it reaches the ground the better chance we have of seeing 1/2″ to 1″.  The slower it takes, the closer to a dusting we will see.  Also, it may never saturate, a no snow solution.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the snow and cold.

Have a great day,

Jeff

Chance of Snow and Arctic Air

Good Monday,

We continue to track the chance of snow and arrival of Arctic air on Wednesday.  First, the snow.  We have been consistent on saying a dusting to 1″ is possible with this system as it moves by Wednesday ahead of the Arctic air.  The new data in this morning is leaning towards a dusting to flurries.  We have to watch this closely as it won’t take much to cause issues.  1/8″ can be a big headache.  The small things can be the biggest problems as we saw this morning on bridges and overpasses where some freezing fog caused some areas of black ice and dozens of accidents were the result.  After the storm system Wednesday, we have the Arctic air that comes south Wednesday.  It will last about two days before 40s return next weekend.

Check out the video below for a more in depth look at the crazy week of weather.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Snow Is Possible Wednesday

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

It’s snowing in Kirksville, MO this morning and it could get exciting for the snow lovers out there over near Kansas City by Wednesday.  The lead storm, we will call storm #1, has produced some wide spread rain and some snow to the north that was quite beneficial as it has been so dry. Storm #2 is being monitored closely on the models, but it still doesn’t exist yet.

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There are three of many features that we are tracking. The first one is the wave of energy that is now passing over the Kansas/Missouri state line. Ahead of this wave we had rising motion and enough moisture to produce an organized band of rain and snow. The snow occurred just north of the Kansas City viewing area which goes to the Iowa border. It was rain farther to the south. Behind this wave will be strongly sinking air which will shut off the precipitation and likely clear the clouds away. There is another storm, however, over Mexico that is helping produce rain over the southern states. This system will get kicked out by the energy from storm #2.

That energy is going to come into place to provide good conditions for some snow on Wednesday.

  • GFS Model: This model holds the wave together long enough for me to get a bit excited about this for snow enthusiasts. The GFS has 0.25″ liquid near Kansas City, centered on the south side. This provides the potential of a dusting to 4″ snowfall across our viewing area.
  • Canadian Model: This model shows a dusting to 2″ from around Kansas City southward
  • European Model: The new model run is not out until 12:45 PM, so this is the old run: This model has that thin band of heavy snow that holds together all the into western Missouri. The amounts vary from 1″ to 6″ in this thin band that does clip the KC metro area on its north side.
  • NAM Model: This model is interesting this morning. It goes out to 84 hours and this takes us through 6 PM Wednesday. This model started strengthening that southern wave and created separation around 60 hours to 66 hours out. It then holds the wave together but the cold air overwhelms the lower atmosphere limiting amounts of snow as it approached Kansas City. This model has 1/2″ to 1″ near KC, a dusting north, and 5″ a few counties to the south!

Gary’s Forecast: I believe there is enough evidence in that I am willing to forecast a dusting to 4″ in the KC viewing area. The target, as I see it now, appears to be around Paola, KS. Now, this is as of this morning. We have three more days to track this and the target will likely move. If the storm is a bit stronger, then the target shifts north into the south side of the KC metro area. If it is a bit weaker, then it would shift farther south to near Nevada, MO.

My forecast for Kansas City right now (3 days before the storm):

  • A dusting to 1″ north of Kansas City
  • A dusting to 2″ in the KC metro area
  • 1″ to 4″ from the south KC metro area to Pittsburg, KS

Have a great day. Go Chiefs!

Gary

Rain, Arctic Cold….Snow?

Good Saturday,

The weather pattern is getting active as we are tracking 2-3 storm systems and an Arctic blast.  The first system is for tonight as it will bring a good chance of rain with temperatures around 40°.  A widespread .25″ to .40″ is likely which is good news as we need the rain.  The rain ends Sunday morning, giving way to some sun by afternoon.  Then check out the video below for an in depth look at the next systems and Arctic air.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Two Storm Systems! Any Snow?

Good Friday Night In The Big Town Bloggers,

There are two storm systems that will impact our area in the next five days.  And, then an Arctic front will move through with much colder air arriving. There are many of you out there wondering if we will see our first snowflakes, and I think we will on Wednesday with the second storm. The first storm will likely produce rain. It will begin Saturday evening. If it started earlier it would be below freezing, but it won’t start until after temperatures rise above freezing to near 40 degrees most of the night Saturday night.

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The map above shows the 28 degree air in place, but as you can see below, look at the midnight temperatures on Saturday night. It is still near 40 degrees insuring we won’t need any salt for this one.

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The much colder air arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. It appears as if it will be dry for the Chiefs game on NBC Thursday night.  But, wind chills will be in the teens. Bundle up and go Chiefs.

Gary

Maybe A Storm In One Week

Good Wednesday evening/Thursday morning bloggers,

Winter is still three weeks away and it is finally turning a bit colder.  The next week has some big changes showing up.  We have a great discussion going on over on my Weather2020.com site where we discuss this breakthrough technology.  I want to add in my thoughts on our Action Weather Blog here.  The LRC is coming into focus this week. Yesterday I suggested that this next weeks storm system fit the LRC, but that it would likely mean a faster, weaker, and farther north track. This is now showing up on the models, unfortunately for us snow enthusiasts.  The models have been all over the place. Just look at this example. Yesterday, the European model had an output of 28″ of snow near Kansas City for next Wednesday into Thursday. And, last night’s model, just two model runs later has this solution:

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This latest Euro model run doesn’t only not show the 20″ plus snowfall, but it has no snowfall at all over the area that it showed the huge snowstorm that got everyones attention yesterday.  Now, this is just one model run, and it may be way off. The other models still have some snow across the plains mid-next week, but they are also trending less and less.

The beginning of this year’s LRC: 

There is a signature part of this pattern that signaled the start of this years cycling pattern. If you go back into early to mid-October, then you can see it, but it is such a complex puzzle.  I stared at the puzzle for two hours last night and I could barely do the weather at 10 PM on 41 Action News when I was done. I even spent time staring at one of those puzzles, a stereogram. Eventually you can see what’s hidden within the complex puzzle. This cycling weather pattern puzzle is just now coming into focus. This storm next week was not a big upper low in the last cycle as some of the models were trying to show yesterday. It was a strong wave that dipped down out of Canada and swung across the middle of North America. This is happening again next week, but in the last cycle it was less than three weeks out from summer, and now we are three weeks from the beginning of winter.  After this moves by next week another one of those Pacific Storm Generating Machines is likely going to form which would likely mean another warm up.  Then, there is another cold part of the cycling pattern due back in around that first day of winter. There have not been a lot of storm systems in this pattern as we have discussed. There has been a domination of ridges aloft. You can read more about it in my winter forecast.

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Let us look at how this storm system evolves.  The map on the left shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up above us, valid in 72 hours or Friday night. Energy aloft is forecast to dive south towards Mexico and we are getting many different solutions at how this will evolve. When this type of storm begins digging it often digs harder and farther west than what the models forecast.  This will likely mean that this system will follow suit and dive towards Baja, CA.  Within a few days this system will close off into an  upper low and  then wait for its kicker.

This next map on the right shows the evolution of the kicking storm system.

2As you can see here, there are some very important features that show up that are big players in the evolution of what happens next. As I discussed, we are now beginning to see a repeat in the weather pattern as we move into LRC Cycle 2.  I have been looking for this big ridge in feature #1. This is the type of feature that will produce an Arctic air mass. In the first cycle the Arctic air mass formed on the other side of the hemisphere. And, now that we are closer to winter it will likely try to form on this side of the Northern Hemisphere. The old upper low, the one I talked about forming on the first map, will be getting kicked out by Sunday night.

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This third map, on the left, shows yet another Pacific storm being generated by what we are calling this years Pacific Storm Generating Machine.  This storm is being created by this year’s LRC and cycling weather pattern. This sill likely create low pressure over western Canada and try to wipe out any Arctic air mass that begins to form. And, you can see what has happened to next weeks storm. It is just a big trough going by, similar to what happened during the second week of October, but just farther north in that first cycle. This may still be able to produce a band of snow near and behind the cold front around Wednesday.

We will continue to get new and varying solutions on the models. But, this weaker system, and more progressive system seems to fit better.

The Arctic Oscillation did not dip deep negative as it was being forecast to do by some of the models ten days ago. In future LRC Cycles we need to continue monitoring the AO and NAO, and other factors. If there is more blocking in future cycles, then this storm could become the much bigger storm that was being forecast just a day ago.  We still need to monitor all of this closely now, but the trend is not our snow enthusiast friend at the moment.

Kansas City Snowfall Last Two Years:

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Gary