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Dry and Windy, Increasing Rain Chances

Good Monday bloggers,

Today we are in a Red Flag Warning which means due to the dry ground, low humidity and gusty winds, fires can spread quickly.  So, burning/grilling throwing cigarettes out the window is prohibited today.  It has become quite dry the last several weeks.  The only way to reduce the fire hazard is to have rain.  The good news is that we do see some rain in the forecast along with higher humidity.

RED FLAG WARNING:  This is in effect until 7 PM today.  The wind will stay up tonight, but it will come down a bit and the humidity will increase.

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RAINFALL INFORMATION: This is why we have the dry ground.  Officially, at KCI, there has been 0.39″ since September 10th.  Some locations have seen less.  We should have had around 5″ since then.  So, we could use some rain.

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TUESDAY MORNING: We need the rain and there are small chances showing up through Thursday.  The first chance arrives tomorrow morning as a disturbance rides in from the southwest.  This is not going to be a widespread rain, but some locations may see a brief downpour.  Hopefully, it will be your neighborhood, so the fire risk diminishes.  The wind will still be up tomorrow, but so will the humidity, which helps the fire situation.

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WEDNESDAY: What we need is widespread rain.  This may occur Friday into Saturday as a storm system in the southwest USA heads into the Plains and Midwest.  Also, notice the line of clouds and showers along and north of I-70.  This is associated with a weak and stalling cold front.  So, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. If the front lingers, we could see a few downpours Thursday.  Then, we will hope for the more widespread event Friday.

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Have a great week and LET’S GO ROYALS!

Jeff

A warming trend coming

Hard to believe after a chilly start to the day, but a warming trend is on the way to our area. Thanks to a small layer of clouds, we did not get terribly cold last night into this morning.
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That said, it was still chilly. It’s due to a large area of high pressure parked over the area.
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That cold air mass is going to drift to the East over the next few days, and bring some cold air to the Great Lakes and East coast. This will also impact Toronto, where the Royals area headed for game three of the ALCS.
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Back here at home, we’ll deal with a windy and slightly warmer day on Sunday.
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A big race going on at the Kansas Speedway, as the green flag drops on the Hollywood 400. Race fans will be a little chilly early on, but it’s a typical fall afternoon taking shape.
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As mentioned, we have a warming trend coming.
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That warmth will come with a bit of a price: I think we’ll experience a strong South wind Sunday & Monday, so be ready.

Looking ahead, the models have been flip-floppy on rain chances for the middle and late part of the week. My feeling: we’ve seen a lot of cold fronts slice through that wind up producing rain, even when the models says no just hours beforehand. My take is: plan for a small shower chance Wednesday through Friday. Right now, the guidance is suggesting the best chances for rain will be Saturday. Both the GFS and Euro are both aggressive for rainfall, but it could certainly change by tomorrow’s cycle. Obviously, we’ll have a better idea as we get closer. Just know: there is at least a small chance for later in the week.

Enjoy the night!
-JD

Winning Weather for Game 5 then Changes

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather for tonight’s game will be just great for baseball.  There will be no rain, no wind and temperatures falling through the 60s.  A light jacket may be useful.  So, come on Royals, lets get this win!

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Now, lets get to the changes.  First, tomorrow will see highs in the 70s with a few more clouds as a cold front moves through during the afternoon.

THURSDAY: Here is the forecast map for Thursday afternoon.  A front will be moving through, so our highs will be stunted in the low to mid 70s.  There is little moisture to work with, so we will see some additional clouds, but no rain.  If the front waits 1-2 hours we will jump to 80°, but that is looking unlikely at this time.

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FRIDAY:  This is decent front as highs will be around 60°, with 50s to the north.  This will be with nearly full sunshine.  High pressure will be building in from the north.

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SATURDAY: We will still be in the cool air mass.  As a matter of fact we dropped the high to the 50s as it looks like a thick overcast will be moving in.  A sprinkle is possible.  Then, we turn our attention to the western USA.  A small system will be in the southwest USA with a second stronger system heading in to the west coast.

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SUNDAY-MONDAY:  The cool air will get pushed out as the warmer air returns.  This warmer air is being pushed east as the western systems move east.  The small system and bigger one to the west will go through a transition as they continue their eastward movement into the Plains and Midwest.  This will lead to our first widespread rain chance since September 18th.  The timing for the rain is next Tuesday-Thursday.  We will continue to update this through the week.

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Now back to tonight!

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Score some runs and beat the Astros!

Have a great day and night.

Jeff

Game 5 and Dry for Awhile

Good Tuesday evening bloggers,

The weather is about as calm as it gets and this is a good thing, as the Royals return for game 5.  I still can’t believe that game.  It just goes to show you Yogi Berra was right.  “It ain’t over til its over.”  So, what will the weather be like for the game, lets go through tailgating to the end of the game.

TAILGATING WEATHER: It will be sunny with hardly a cloud and a light wind.  Wow!  Great weather with an EOI (Eat Outside Index) of 10!

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FIRST PITCH:  The sky will be clear with a light wind and dry air as the Let’s Go Royals chants increase.  So, once the sun goes down the temperatures will fall off.  Sunset is 6:42 PM.  You will likely need a light jacket or sweatshirt for the game.

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END OF THE GAME: Temperatures will be either in the low 60s or upper 50s, a bit cool.  At least the wind will be under 5 mph.  I hope we are in a party mood by around 10 PM.

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Now, lets take a look at the weather pattern.  It has really dried out, so when is the next chance of rain?

UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY-WEDNESDAY: This is still a very dry weather pattern as the jet stream is flat and well north to the west with a trough in the northeast.  This puts us in a mild northwest flow with no storm systems.  There are signs of a change.  Notice, the low off of the southern California coast.  We will expand on this below.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND: The pattern begins to change.  First, the trough in the northeast deepens and expands.  This will send a cool air mass our way for Friday and Saturday.  We will be on the western edge, so this will drop us to average temperatures as highs drop to the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  This is still a very dry weather pattern.  Now, lets look to the west.  The low from off of the southern California coast moves into the southwest USA and bring showers and thunderstorms to Nevada, Arizona and southern California.  Then further west, in the eastern Pacific ocean, there is a second system.  The data the last few days is suggesting that these systems will head east into the Plains and Midwest next week as they go through a transformation.  This may lead to our first widespread rain chance since September 18th.  The above to much above average temperature air mass will head back east ahead of the systems.  So, after the cool down Friday and Saturday we will experience another huge warm up then we will see if we can get some rain in about 7-10 days.  We will update this in the coming days.

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Have a great night and

LET’S GO ROYALS!  Clap, clap, brief pause, clap clap clap

The Snowflake Contest & The Royals Win!

Good evening bloggers,

What an afternoon. Someone just facebooked me wondering why weather people talk about sports. It’s hard to hold back when it gets to this excitement level. Are you kidding? Down 6-2 in the 8th inning. Let me say it again……DOWN SIX TO TWO in the 8th inning, and the Royals score 5 runs and win the game 9-6 after the two insurance runs from Hosmer’s two run homer.

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The Royals play Wednesday night as they host the Astro’s for the fifth and deciding game of this series. The weather is just incredible and it will be very nice with light winds Wednesday night.  The weather is just setting up perfectly for the game.  And, the weather pattern is in massive transition. The key three weeks of the LRC are from October 15th to November 5th.  I will be going into the details on Weather2020.

The snowflake contest began early on Monday. You have until November 15th to enter, so I recommend waiting and analyzing this pattern. We will be providing some insight.  For now, we are still in search of our first frost or freeze.  Here is how you enter the contest:

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Have a great Monday Night. We will have the blog updated on Tuesday.

Gary

Despite a cold front, Monday to remain nice

A little sizzle on this Sunday, feeling more like Summer than Fall. But this could be the last gasp for the year.
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While many of us fell short of hitting any records today, one location was the exception: Lawrence.
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A cold front is headed this way now. It should arrive just after midnight, and you’ll know it as the wind will move to the Northwest and pick up speed. Despite this cold front, I think we’re still above average Monday. The biggest issue will simply be the wind.
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Beyond that, it’s a fairly quiet week. Sunshine and highs in the 70s. We’ll be watching the next cold front to arrive on Friday. There are new indications of rainfall from both the GFS and the European models. We’ll need to keep eyes on that. No matter what, it looks like even cooler air coming for next weekend.

Short and sweet today. A quick reminder (even though we’re talking record highs), our snowflake contest opens up tomorrow! If you can guess when the first inch of snow will fall at our studios, you could win $2,000 from KB Complete! Go online and register your guess starting tomorrow. Good luck!
SnowFlake Contest

Have a nice evening,
-JD

Heading toward a toasty Sunday

Early risers may have been greeted this morning with something not seen in some time: frost. It was a wee bit chilly in a few areas.
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In case you are wondering, it’s typical for the first freeze of the year to happen in October, especially in our Northern set of counties.
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So with all that said, it’s only logical that we talk about high temperatures being in the vicinity of records, right? That’s what could happen on Sunday. The center of the country will be cookin’ for this time of year, with a lot of 80 degree readings and even a few 90s possible.
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The record high in Kansas City is 89°, set back in 1962. Most of the guidance places us in the middle 80s. The Euro is the coolest model, only wanting 81°. Meanwhile, the GFS is warmest, suggesting 86°. It should be noted the GFS continues to run warmer than all other guidance in general. Forecasters should be noting this and shaving down their forecasts against the bias.

Those heading out to Arrowhead to watch the Chiefs, it’s going to be a great day for football.
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I don’t think tailgaters will be too cool, but fans in the stands may be a little warm toward the second half of the game. If you’re seated in the shady areas of the stadium, you should be just fine.

While Sunday will be plenty toasty, don’t expect the same for Monday. Another cold front will come marching through the area.
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I don’t believe this front will do much more than just drop the temperatures a little bit. That will really be felt by Tuesday morning, when we get dumped back into the 40s again.
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Looking a bit farther ahead, we should stay dry and pretty mild this week. The European model does hint at some rain on Thursday afternoon, but I’m not seeing much other support for that. Then, the GFS wants showers on Saturday of next week. Here again, not much other support for that.
What I do see: a drop in the temperatures. Both medium range models are in agreement that we’ll fall into the 50s for next weekend thanks to a strong cold front plowing into the area. Some locales may once again flirt with frost. Hey, it is fall after all. Nothing like a little frost on the ol’ pumpkins.

Enjoy your weekend,
-JD

Game 2 and Huge Warm Up

Good Friday bloggers,

Well not only was there a rain delay last night at the game, but the Royals were sluggish.  Today is a different day and there will be no rain, and hopefully the Royals get that gleam in their eye today and take care of the Astros.  Now, there will be no rain, but there may not be that much sun as low clouds are moving in from the north.  These low clouds will move in this morning, then try to break up this afternoon.  So, we are going for a high around 65°.  If the clouds hang tough, then highs will struggle to 60°.

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You will not need and umbrella or poncho today, but a sweatshirt and light jacket will come in handy as temperatures warm from the upper 50s to low 60s.

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The weekend weather is looking spectacular as winds turn in from the southwest.

SATURDAY:  We will see plenty of sunshine as highs reach the 70s.  80s will be building out west as winds turn in from the southwest.

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SUNDAY:  Look at this!  That is not a misprint.  Highs will be in the 90s across parts of Nebraska and Kansas.  There will be a strong southwest wind blowing across the Plains with full sunshine.  It will be more like July. however, the humidity will be lower.

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SUNDAY HIGHS:  Wow!  Highs in our area will be 85°-89°.  The record high is 89° set back in 1962.  So, yes this will be quite a day.

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The weather into next week looks nice as well with highs in the 70s and 80s with 1-2 weak cold fronts.  There is no rain in the forecast.

It’s Friday, have a great weekend.

and Let’s Go Royals!

Jeff

The Royals Weather Forecast: GO ROYALS!

Good late evening or early morning bloggers,

Wow, could October 7th have been the first day of LRC 2015-2016?  I believe it very well may have been.  And, suddenly something new is happening. I am not so sure it is exciting for Kansas City, but hang on as if it is day one, then we have six to seven more weeks of weather to experience before you jump to conclusions on what it may mean for the winter.

Our Kansas City Royals take on and host the Houston Astro’s Thursday night with a scheduled 6:37 PM first pitch. Since the pattern is likely new, this will mean something very different from last year is going to happen. This makes this forecast more difficult than usual. However, the first data that came out before my 10 PM newscast has no rain at all until after the game. That would certainly make my life easier.

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The cold front will likely be near Kansas City right around first pitch. So, we can’t rule out a brief shower or thunderstorm, but I believe we can rule in that it would likely be brief. We will put in that 30% chance and at this moment I don’t think the chance is higher than this. What does a 30% chance of rain mean? It means that 7 out of 10 times I say there is a 30% chance of rain, then it will not rain in those seven times, but three times it will.  So, I lean towards the no rain for the game at the moment.  Now, by 2:30 AM the main disturbance will come through and we may have a band or rain, with a few thunderstorms possible as the cooler air moves in.

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Our latest in-house computer model shows this forecast for the first inning. That is a rain shower that lasted around 20 minutes, and then the sky cleared.

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Here is the forecast for the game:

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A cold front will move through with the wind shifting to the northwest. There is a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms, and if we do get one I am expecting it to just blow through.  Have a great night and early morning. And, GO ROYALS! Let’s beat the Astros in game 1!  I will be on Sports Radio 810 AM at 7:50 AM or so with the updated forecast, and our weather team will be out live at the stadium and in studio tracking the new data. Did you meet our new weather team member, Nicole Phillips?  Here is a goofy picture of us:

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We are the official meteorologists of the Kansas City Royals!

Gary

Looking Ahead….Go Royals!

Good late evening or early morning bloggers,

I sure hope you are all doing well. I have been blogging more over on the Weather2020.com site with the new LRC now setting up.  And, as many of you likely know, I am mourning the loss of my wonderful dog Stormy The Weather Dog. She died last Friday at nearly 15 years old.  Life was getting very difficult for her, and we made the tough decision to put her down. It is such a loss and the pack has changed significantly. Stormy was really the pack leader. Breezy now seems to look to Sunny, and Sunny at 6 months old relies on Breezy. They are getting along well.  I would like to thank everyone so much for the outpouring of support from the community. My facebook fanpage received reached over 500,000 people. That is overwhelming, and I read through most of the comments. We will miss Stormy tremendously. I didn’t think I was going to get another weather dog, but Sunny came into our lives and she is going to be making her first school visit at the end of next week.

Now, will The Kansas City Royals be playing at the end of next week, and what will the weather be like.  The weather pattern is in massive transition now, and if you want to keep up with this fascinating weather pattern, then you can join the Weather2020 blog for just $19.99 a year.  We are sharing breakthrough technology with you and this year’s pattern is just now evolving.  Many of you have followed this for years and I know that there is an appreciation for what we are trying to do.  We are attempting to share this with the world, and we have every reason to think that 2016 is going to finally be the year that we take this out of the underground.

Okay, now, what is happening in our weather pattern?  Let’s begin with the gorgeous sunset over the stadium complex on Tuesday evening:

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These are altocumulus clouds and they were finally clearing and a nice warming trend continues.  There is no sign of our first freeze yet:

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The average date for the first freeze is now passing by across northwestern Missouri.  For Topeka to St. Joseph, and east to Chillicothe, the average first freeze comes in the next two weeks, and then for Kansas City it arrives later in October. As I said, there is no sign at all at this point, but there are major changes, as I have been describing as massive changes in the weather pattern.  According to my theory, the weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th every year, and every year’s pattern is unique.  El Niño is strengthening and becoming quite powerful.  This could be one of the strongest, if not the strongest El Niño’s ever recorded. This is just one piece of the LRC atmospheric puzzle.  So, hang on for the ride, we will know what this pattern will likely mean in a few weeks, but it’s way too early right now.

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There is an upper low getting lost over northern Mexico in the next couple of days, and our chance of rain will be coming from the dip in the air flow over South Dakota. As this swings by a cold front will move through, and it is timed for Thursday evening.  The conditions will become favorable for some thunderstorms to form, and I have concerns as it is timed for about the time the Royals game will be played. When I was writing this Houston was leading the Yankees, so I am not sure who we are playing yet, but by the time you read this we will likely know.   Here is the 6:50 PM surface forecast on Thursday evening. This would be a nightmare for us, as we are the official meteorologists for the Kansas City Royals. I will be up on Crown Vision and we have to record the forecast 3 hours before the game. Of the 81 home games this year, we had around three bad moments up there where the weather changed and they played our weather forecast.  78 out of 81 is not bad, but I don’t want to be wrong again.  In this scenario it would be tough. Now, if there is a rain delay at the beginning of the game, it would allow us to potentially get the Royals an update before the game starts. We may be in a tough situation.

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Now, this isn’t etched in stone, and the timing of the front and the chance of rain and thunderstorms are still big questions that we should be able to answer better by Wednesday night and Thursday.   Our computer model is simulating a thunderstorm over the K at 8 PM Thursday:

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Here is our forecast for Thursday evening, hoping that we can update this and reduce that chance as we get closer.

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After Thursday, take a look at what happens to the pattern:

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The jet stream is forecast to retreat to the north by early next week. This will create great conditions for a late season warm spell.  The northern Mexico upper low will have drifted off the west coast, and that west to east jet stream will create some downsloping and a chance of some record breaking warm weather early next week.

Have a great Wednesday and we will update you as the new data comes in.

Gary