7:15 AM update:
Good morning bloggers,
Last night we had a special segment on our spring forecast. Here is the link: Spring Forecast Video
The semnent begins with a brief discussion of this weather pattern that has produced 36 inches of snow already and I explain that winter isn’t over yet.
And, we have a storm that is due to arrive around Friday night into Saturday that has potential to produce winter weather and more snow in our region. I will discuss this in a late morning blog entry after the new data comes out. In the mean time, today looks like a great day with temperatures much warmer than yesterday.
Previous entry below:
Spring Forecast 2011
Spring is coming, I promise! We are still in the same weather pattern that produced 35 inches of snow this winter, so far. We were at 35 inches of snow at this point last year, but ended up with over 44 inches after a major late March winter storm. One or two more chances of snow are likely as this pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle).
This year’s weather pattern is cycling about every 50 days or so. Forecasting the weather using the LRC is quite challenging. Forecasting the weather for just the next three days is difficult. We have had tremendous success in forecasting long range in recent years, but we aren’t perfect. I believe we can be accurate about 75% of the time in forecasting the weather ten days to ninety days out. But, you do realize that this means out of 100 forecasts we may get 25 wrong. This winter forecast can be chalked up to one of those wrong ones.
We know so much more about the weather pattern now than we did when we issued the winter forecast. It isn’t the LRC that failed, but the forecast that us humans made using the theory that didn’t pan out this year.
Looking into this weather pattern we see no indication that it will calm down. And, as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico becomes readily available this pattern will get quite wet. Flooding will become a concern early in the spring, but I think that threat will increase later in the spring as summer approaches.
One of the strongest storms in each cycle has affected our weather. We are moving into the fourth cycle of the LRC. There have been many major storm systems, but one of them has affected the middle part of the nation in each of the first three cycles (October 26th, December 11th, and February 1st when we had the blizzard). This part of the weather pattern will likely return around the week of March 20th, and again around May 10th, and again around the first day of summer. By then, however the jet stream will be retreating north.
Severe weather season is arriving and with this weather pattern we are forecasting above average rainfall, especially during the second half of spring. Kansas City averages over 15 inches for rain from March through June. We are expecting over 20 inches of rain during these four months. Which weeks are most likely to have the biggest severe weather potential? Using the LRC we believe that certain parts of this weather pattern are likely going to produce severe weather set-ups:
- April 4th to April 15th
- May 8th to May 14th
- May 22nd to June 1st
Overall we are expecting a colder and wetter than average spring as this pattern begins weakening and summer approaches.
With all of this in mind, we would be remiss if we didn’t focus on the positives. There will of course be plenty of warmer, drier, and less humid spring days that are typical of every season. Which means opportunities for you to get out their and enjoy the flowers, trees, and whatever you like to do when mother nature grants you’re the freedom to do so!
Have a great morning and check back in for an updated blog on this next storm system around noon.