Good evening bloggers,
8:20 PM update: The latest NAM model and one of our Powercasts redevelops the vorticity around this storm in such a way that a new vort max develops and tracks just south of Kansas City Saturday night. This could be just strong enough to produce some snow. We will discuss this on Saturday.
Previous entry below:
It’s Friday Night In The Big Town! We have had wide spread one inch rainfall amounts, a little less in some spots and close to 1.5″ in others. We are expecting a new band of rain to form in the next four hours, but as of right now I don’t see it forming at all. So, we may add only another 0.10″ to 0.25″ to our totals between now and early Sunday.
A dry slot will come in from the southwest in the next 12 hours and this should shut off the precipitation for a while, or it will taper off to a drizzle with some fog in the morning. The dry slot is an area of strongly sinking air.
We will be moving out of the dry slot by Saturday evening, and some precipitation will start moving east-southeast on the back side of this rapidly weakening storm system. Will we see any snowflakes? Here is a snowfall forecast Jeff Penner just made and we are showing it on the 6 PM newscast in a few minutes.
And, here is a forecast valid at 2:20 PM Saturday:
Take a look at the large precipitation shield, above, and what happens to it by the time it is approaching us Saturday night. It will be interesting to watch this happen. It is likely that the snowflake contest moves on. After Sunday this year will become the fourth latest first inch ever.
How much rain did you receive? Have a great Friday night.
Gary
Not looking good for snow
G-man: A/o 6:30, I’ve got 1.35″ in West Lenexa.
Awesome! If we’re already in 4th… lets go all the way baby! 1.30″ in north Olathe.
Gary–Good evening—here in Berryton, Kansas we have 1.5 inches—this is the storm from the middle of December and around November 2-4? Why did this particular storm weaken more quickly than the previous two times? Dynamics and moisture I am sure play into it. But am glad we finally received precipitation. Michael/Berryton/Topeka
This one hasn’t weakened yet Mike. And, the latest data holds it together long enough that we have to pay close attention to Saturday night. If this would have taken just a slightly farther south track we would have had a significant snow storm. Thanks for the report.
Gary
up to 1.34in of rain 5S of Buckner, MO
Just about one inch at I-29 & 64th.
I asked this yesterday, but got no reply due to all the clutter on the blog. Here goes another try:
What do the winds look like for tomorrow from about 7am-5pm?
Brett, you can go to the NWS site and enter your location, then click on the “hourly weather graph” tab at the lower right corner. Wind is one of many forecast elements displayed by hour. Here is the one for my location off of I-29 near 64th Street.
“forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.20565&lon=-94.63211&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical”
It shows wind to be less than 10mph for the period you are concerned about.
Thanks! Sorry, i am usually capable of doing all this on my own, I have just been so swamped with so many things lately. Less than 10mph would be PERFECT
You’re welcome. Hope you enjoy whatever it is you’re doing in the AM.
Some birding at local reservoirs with the Kansas Ornithological Society to unwind after a busy week, and have a little freetime before the follwing busy week.
Gary when would we expect to see the snowflakes start to mix in? I know sat night, but can you give a certain time? And how long would the snow last?
1.30″ of Rain by 7am this morning in Granada, Ks. Wind blowing hard out of the East Right Now. No precipitation as of yet tonight.
Kuchera snow forecast calcs applied to the NAM run Gary to which Gary is referring:
“wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_36HR.gif”
McCabe, if the NAM is right, it would be about a 6-hr period of wet snow beginning after 9-10pm.
An interesting feature of this storm (I’ve been reading the NWS reports from Colorado and W. Kansas) is the unusually low snow to liquid ratio. It’s heavy and wet even in the blizzard area, so the chance of anything “major” here – even if the NAM is right – would seem to be minimal. Maybe just something to whiten the ground.
I can hardly wait for the snow freaks to type in their “measurements” of the 15 flakes that fall from this. You know who you are, just like always. Complain about my post even though it’s not directed at anyone personally, just you dunderheads that get mad about it (snowfreaks). I’m sure it will snow “heavy flurries” or a “heavy dusting” where you are!!!! Post some more snow maps!
As I asked on the previous blog post, when and what will you start contributing to this blog other than your condescending and critical attitude?
I know, what a jerk.
I vote we drive to colorado, fill 100 dump trucks with snow, drive it back here, and bury Theo’s house.
It’s quite a storm here in Colorado. We have about 27″ so far and it’s still snowing hard. Supposed to get another 3-5″ tonight. I just heard west of us in Blackhawk that they are at 51″. I-36 from Denver to Boulder just closed due to significant drifting and I-25 thru Denver is closed right now due to “icicle hazards off of overpasses”. I’ll keep you posted from a very snowy Colorado!
ColoradoMtnGuy, The front range is getting hammered, crazy because a lot of the ski resorts to the west of Denver look like they’re missing most of this. My snow shovel is still in the basement, I don’t think I’m going to need it… do you want it?
late update: 1.1″ in Shawnee near 435 & SM Pkwy
Hey Emaw, I may need more than that shovel come morning
, but thank you!! I actually live in Breckenridge but came down to my family’s place in Boulder to enjoy the storm. We’re at 2 feet here, and just as you said, Breckenridge has only receive an inch! It’s crazy, but this is what these upslope storms do. I remember back in 2003, we didn’t get anything west of the divide and Evergreen picked up 7 feet. It’s still coming down hard here right now, not sure what the totals will be, but guessing the average will easily be 20-24″ with many locales pushing 30″ with even more in the foothills.
We will get some s(NO)w out of this. Meaning NO.