Good Friday morning bloggers,
It is Superbowl weekend! And, the Superbowl is on NBC and NBC will be debuting the season premier of The Voice Sunday night right after the Superbowl. This is actually a really good show that I enjoyed last year in it’s first season. I think you will enjoy it, so give it a shot. Then, I will go into this Winter Mystery on NBC Action News Sunday night. We are experiencing history in Kansas City if we don’t have 4.5″ of snow this snow season. Right now we sit at 0.4″, which is a long way from 4.5″ of snow, the lowest total in Kansas City history. It is a weather mystery!
The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill’s radar is down as they are in the process of the Dual Polarization Radar Upgrade: (Radar Upgrade) David, from our blog, posted this image at 6 AM as the thunderstorms were moving in:
The first band of rain with thunderstorms embedded is heading into the western metro area at 6 AM. A slow moving storm has developed over Colorado and New Mexico. This storm will drift our way and affect us into Sunday morning. There are a few questions that come to mind:
- How much rain will we receive from this slow moving and likely weakening storm?
- It is likely going to snow in the viewing area, but will it make it as far south as Kansas City?
- What is going on with this Winter Mystery?
- We are forecasting between 1 and 2 inches of rain in most locations in our viewing area. A few spots may end up with more than 2 inches of rain with some minor flooding possible.
- Snow will likely spread into northeast Kansas and extreme northwest Missouri later Saturday afternoon and evening. We are still trying to figure out if it will make it as far south as Kansas City and we will go into answering this question a bit more clearly later on today.
- The Wintery Mystery will be an evolving discussion in the next few days in the blog and on NBC Action News
The morning band of showers and thunderstorm is just the first of many that will move across our local region. This first map is from one of our six solutions that we run every day in our Forecast Center. This is a forecast for 4 PM this afternoon:
This map, above, shows the afternoon round of showers and thunderstorms over us and the winter part of the storm way back to the west. The red color over northwest Kansas is a mixture of rain and snow and it turns to very heavy snow in the pink to purple colors. By Saturday afternoon the storm will begin weakening but still holding together and this next map is valid Saturday evening:
Just as the chance of snow is arriving in Kansas City, this storm is forecast to weaken considerably and the area of precipitation may be gradually falling apart. A band of mixed precipitation possibly changing to some light snow will arrive by late Saturday night and early Sunday as you can see below. This map is valid at 4 AM Sunday morning.
This developing storm and how it evolves from now into the weekend is about as strange as any I have ever seen. The strong and developing upper low will begin to rapidly weaken as it approaches us Saturday night. I will discuss this strange evolution in a blog later today after we analyze the new data. While we experience this storm system with thunderstorms this morning, here is something Bob Henson sent me yesterday. He lives in Boulder, CO, where they are getting blasted by the winter part of this storm to our west. Denver and Boulder are in the midst of a snowstorm right now. He sent me “The 5 Stages Of Winter 2011-2012:
The Winter Mystery continues this morning as today is our third day with thunderstorms in the KC metro area this year. Three days with thunderstorms and we are still waiting for that first inch of snow. There has never been a snow season (October through April) in KC history where less than 4.5″ of snow fell. This weather pattern continues to cycle and I will still be amazed if it doesn’t come together at least one time. Speaking of “time”, it hasn’t run out yet, but we will be running out of it as spring approaches. The most likely coldest part of the LRC is going to return in the next cycle in a few week, so let’s see how it sets up this time.
Have a great Friday! Let us know what you experience and how much rain you receive and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. I will try to update the blog later today.
Gary
man this winter is making me sad. i love snow, last few seasons were awesome…gotta wait roughly 10 months now
We need to not forget that Europe is expirencing one of its worst winters which could make the ending of are winter more interesting then some might realize.
Atta boy! Keep wishcasting!
Shane, I don’t think Europe having a cold winter will cause our winter to be any different down the road. In fact, I think the reason why Europe is having such a harsh winter is because our winter has been extremely mild. If you look back to last year, while we had our extremes here in the CONUS, Europe for the most part was our opposite. Our winter had a mild start, theirs had a harsh start. Our winter had a harsh end, their winter was about normal for the 2nd half. Keep in mind we had a huge drought during the summer of last year, Thailand had record flooding. The earth is about balances of extremes and the cycle of one nation does not influance another “later on”, but instead it counter balances that of the other area to “average” things out.
If you are tracking this storm,the radar in Pleasant Hill is offline for awhile so use the Topeka radar, or the radar at KCI Airport. I have a live image on my website if anyone wants to view the KCI radar. http://www.freewebs.com/theweatherpage/
Thanks David for the KCI radar feed.
You’re Welcome
“http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F03%2F2012+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=054&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L”
Latest NAM gives us snow for Sunday! The map I posted is the accumulated precip for overnight Saturday and Sunday. It gives us .25-.50″ of precip which would be in the form of snow. And for the trolls out there…..I. am. Not. Wishcasting, I am just saying what the new data is forecasting
Number 1. It’s only giving us .17 max for the precip of when the storm’s occluded front passes.
Number 2. About .10 of that will be a mix between rain, sleet, and snow.
Number 3. The .07 inch remaining will likely just give us maybe some more wet pavement and maybe a dusting at the most. And that’s doubtful Because it is the 06z model.
Thanks for another great wishcast Champs!!
Theo,
Thanks for another useless comment.
Great blog,loved the end. Ton of rain headed this way at any rate. Love to see how this little sucka plays out.
Just looked at snowfall totals based on the last GFS and we just might end the contest this weekend. Have to dig deeper to see if we face a “Super Chilled” rain event as well.
ravenscroft, your not fooling anyone. Don’t try to start something that’s not gonna happen. Snowflake contest wont end this year. Next year the snowflake contest may end end middle of January. We had 2 cold winters, we now have a extreme mild winter and a 10″ snow winter next year, after that trending above normal again.
You got me:( I’m a shill for “Big Snow”.
rain arriving right on time here in NW olathe at k-7 and k-10 interchange. wicked east wind.
Well it just might snow! Lots of lightling and thunder in Olathe!
Thanks for posting my radar image Gary.
Pea size hail in olathe.
Did anyone notice there was a circle around the moon last night? Indication, perhaps!
There’s the saying “Ring around the moon, rain by noon.” It really has no intriguing myth to go with it… just a weather prediction.
Snowlovers … check this out … Goodland, KS, 06z NAM-based forecast:
“http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GLD”
And, no, I’m not “wishcasting” for KC by posting this. It’s just a cool-looking map if you like snow.
Wishcasters UNITE!!! There’s still time to make this a foot of snow for KC!!!
We get it.
Now, how about trying to contribute something useful to this blog instead of your critical and condescending attitude?
What is YOUR “forecast”? What interesting meteorological observations and information are you seeing?
Just had some really impressive lightning and thunder which shook the house several times. Pea-sized hail, too, for about 4 or 5 minutes!
Good Morning Gary,
The earthquake in Japan last summer knocked the earth off its axis by six degrees. Has this had a effect on our weather? If so, will this be a permanent change in the weather patterns?
Sue,
I had totally forgotten about that.. It will be interesting to see how that affects the weather.. or if it does at all.
If the theory holds true, KC is positioned further south which explains our mild winter, like Dallas.
I don’t think it was 6 degrees, it was something like 6 inches, and actually shorted the days by around 2 microseconds.
Not sure if it’s made a difference, but they way this Winter has been, I’m open to all suggestions.
H.
I’m with hippygoth on this
Yeah it was what hippygoth said below (or above me depending on where this posts, since I’ve never really replied to anyone on here before
)
But yeah um the earthquake shortened our day by 1.8 milliseconds, shifted our axis off by 6 inches (which is a pretty damn big amount if you ask me!) and moved Japan’s coast 8 feet to the…west I believe it was, since the actual earthquake occurred off of its eastern coast.
I still think the snowflake contest will end this month…just not this weekend. When it ends it will not be on the back side of these warm wet storms. We need a clipper to surprise us.
R-dub,
Yep, you said it before, these big storms bring KC too much warm air.(at least this pattern this year has) We will likely get that first snow either unexpected or by a clipper like you suggest.
I’ll take this rain, nice base heading towards Spring. This should put us above average for rain this winter season(DEC,Jan,Feb,)
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=TWX
Slushy 1” ?
Wow, what nice heavy June thunderstorm complex… oh, wait a minute, never mind!
Either way it has been really coming down here in St. Joe with a stiff east wind to boot. One thing with the rainfall rates to watch out for is the fact that even though the ground is not frozen, it is not “summer” either as all the vegetation is still dormant and compacted and won’t absorb run off.
Had a short period of pea size hail here at work in Lee’s Summit. No snow and 3 T-storm days already…no one would have ever predicted or believed this would happen back in November!!!!
Well, it so happens that I predicted T-Storms this winter and also predicting a late winter; as such I will win a one week vacation to someplace with beaches, booze and bronze skinned women.
Magnificent Thunder this morning! Wow this would have lined up to be a killer thundersnow~! Oh well not hoping for snow out of this. The rain has been a nice change. My friends in Denver are hunkering down right now!
As of 10:00 last night, this was the following rainfall forecasts from the local outlets including NWS for the duration of the storm:
1)NWS: .75-1.50 inches
2)other local outlet: .75-1.00 inches
3)other local outlet: .75-1.00 inches
4)other local outlet: .75-1.00 inches
5)KSHB 41 1-2 inches with the possibility of 2″+
Let’s see who’s prediction was the best. Will be approaching .75 inches at KCI very soon.(if not already)
How much has KCI recieved?
KCI so far has .81 inches as of noon.
Don’t be so lazy and look for yourself. No wonder KCMO school district students don’t do well.
Just reached .50″ in Greenwood with a temperature of 43 degrees. That is already double from January. We were lucky enough to get almost .25″ last month.
Stop wishcasting that it will never snow again, last time we have a dusting it had been in the 50-60s the days before and people told me it wouldn’t stick but it did. Also at the beginning of the winter Gary showed a picture after it snow and it accumulated even when everyone on the blog said it wouldn’t. Don’t underestimate the power of nature and Midwest weather. It is more of a wishcasting to say it won’t snow since Missouri averages 20 inches of snow a year.
Kole exactly my thoughts. People bashing wishcasters are wishcasting nothing for the rest of the season! The term is overused too often.
How much snow this winter so far .04. Thanks for the average but it will not happen this year so I guess the average will drop a bit. Last time we had a dusting was around 5 am in December and of course it will stick then because sun is not up yet. Come on man be real.
Loving these storms! Still wish it was snow though. The street to my daughters school is covered with standing water.
Compared to the NWS and another local outlet I watch in the mornings…Gary was the first to go out on the limb that we might get over an inch as well as higher percentages.
Lmao all these armatures trying to say it won’t snow. If all the snow wishcasters could please continue to post maps and talk about the possibility of snow that would be awesome! Please keep it up guys we love seeing anything to do with snow and more importantly I love reading all of the idiot comments complaining about the wishcasters lmfao. If you do not think its going to snow sit back and shut up and watch it rain. Jesus Christ some of you people really need some sort of fun in your life..
Here in McLouth KS we have received 1.05″ of rain as of 10:50AM. Lightening hit a tree in the pasture across the road this morning at 5:30AM, just a few seconds before the wake up alarm sounded. I love thunder and spring/summer storms.
0.91″ near downtown OP so far. Impressive amount of lighting and thunder for February, that’s for sure.
Reports out of the Denver area of 3 in/hr!!!
Me thinks McCabe should take his own advice
Nahhhh I’ll be here all day brotha. Wishcasting with the rest of em’
Well, 0.81 inches of rain so far in Raytown as of noon. That gives us a year total of 1.12 inches for the year.
check out http://www.raytownweather.com for more details!!!
Just over 1″ of rain in north Olathe so far. Looking forward to reporting my snowfall totals Sunday morning.
Not sure how much we’ve got here in blue springs, but I can see the rain sitting on top of the dirt out there. Are we going to have flooding problems?.. I know we can use this rain, but we have another huge area of moderate rain with maybe thunderstorms heading straight this way. I bet we get at least 2″ of rain before this storm is out of here. Good call Gary.
Tonganoxie split anyone?
“http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif”
Did you see where the NWS now says we may get 3-6 inches of snow tomorrow!! They may be issuing winter weather advisory for our area!
Obvious troll is Obvious
Thanks ED!!
Being a snow lover I’d like to dream… how do you calculate to find out if all this rain today was actually snow, how much snow we would have received?
Wow that snow really isn’t that far away.. *WISHCAST* Gary any changes in how this is looking? Any chance we get some of that to shift south?
0.84 inches of rain so far in KC North. A little pea hail this AM with the storms.
I cannot get the radar to loop on any of the sites I use. I have a new computer running Windows 7. Any suggestions?
Just a couple thoughts; If you truely support the LRC, you would have to believe chances of much snow at all are pretty slim this season. It seems to me the cycle has been pretty darn consistent this year with us staying in the warm sector with snow nearby. Another thought of concern; I passed a field near my home with over 100 turkeys in it yesterday. I counted over 20 toms in full mating strut. That is really uncommon before about April. Are the animals trying to tell us something? All that said, this rain is a true blessing as soil moisture isn’t great this year coming into spring. Just my 2 cents worth…
Gary good job with the forecast for today. Looks like your rain totals will be right on with the forecasted amounts.
Good point ED!!(mukustink)
Wow muku has the same name I do! Welcome to the Ed club. MUKU don’t worry about Mikey boy he has some major mental health problems. He thinks he knows everything. He actually thinks he is Gary’s blog guard.
NWS discussion says we may get 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow!! Wonder if Gary is going to jump on this? Looks like snowfalke contest may come to a end tomorrow night. Someone post a snow map please based on the new data!!!
No it obviously doesn’t. It says little to no accumulation is expected south of Highhway 36. Same with the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Sportsfreaked I didnt see where it said it. The storm in Western KS is getting stronger!
He obviously isn’t experienced at trolling.
1.10″ so far in Greenwood MO. Getting ready for round two. Rain forecast should be right on target.
Close to 50 inches of snow reported in parts of Colorado. This is more like a late March early April storm for them. Temps are just cold enough for all in the snow areas up in Neb. and Colorado. Not much cold air to be found anywhere throughout the country.
1.09 inches of rain here at my office in NKC. Rain picking back up again.
Don’t you mean your mom’s basement. She told me today when I was there that you needed to clean your room. It was nice to cuddle with her on a cold rainy day.
all talk……no walk, nothing more needs to be said.
NBC Weather Team,
When will you guys post a new Weather blog?
Thanks!
I-70 closed from KS/Colordo state line to goodland!
That’s a short stretch, less than 10 miles as I recall.
Is it also closed in Colorado west of the KS border?
Glad I held off on watering…up to 1.09″ for downtown OP and more coming.
Whatever this winter is not, it has been the winter of overachieving rainfalls.
Should amend that to say late fall/winter.
1.10 (1.37year) 5miles South of Buckner, MO 41degrees
Latest forecast calls for 4-6 inches of snow starting tomorrow night and ending around 3-5 am on Sunday morning. Who will be the contest winner? We will know by Sunday morning!!
I see what you’re doing – attempting to parody the wishcasters – but before you hit the ‘post’ button I want you to ask yourself ‘Does this contribute to meaningful discussion?’
Up to 1.40″ in Greenwood.
Wow, the snow sure is piling up! Only 200 miles from here. You snow freaks didn’t wishcast hard enough!
.78 4 miles nw of liberty
1.30″ in north Olathe, nice. This sucker’s already starting to to get stretched out, 12-16 hrs. from now there probably won’t be much left of it.
Still snowing in Denver,NWS out of N. Platte calling for 3″ to 2′ of snow. The system looks to be holding it’s own and may not weaken until it passes well east of the Metro. Not over yet.