Soak in the sun on Sunday; Fall is lurking

Hard to argue with weather this nice for late October. After a foggy start, the sun really did its thing today and helped push our temperatures into the upper 80 degree range. These were the highs around the area today:
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I think we’ll be even warmer on Sunday. The winds will be stronger as well, out of the South around 15-25 miles per hour and gusts near 30mph at times. All-in-all, it’s going to be a great afternoon but some may argue it’s too warm for this time of year. For those who prefer cooler air, you’re wish will be granted soon enough. Take a look at the temperature trend as we go through the next several days.
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Notice that sharp drop on Friday? Indications suggest a cold airmass will drop in from Canada and settle in over the Midwest/Great Lakes area. We’d be on the edge of this cold air, but could be enough to get our attention by Saturday morning. If the GFS is correct, this is how the setup would look.
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Right now, I’ll forecast a morning low of 33° for Saturday. But should that high shift a little more to the West, we may have to drop that temperature. This is why I say, enjoy Sunday as much as you can because true Fall is going to try and come back. That said, the GFS and Euro both indicate the cold air will be pushed out and we’ll start to warm back up.

One key issue, however, is that there was a major satellite data outage earlier this week. It started on Tuesday and as of Thursday, it has not been fully fixed yet. What does that mean? All of the forecast models we use to forecast the weather require data from the various sensors on the ground (temp/dew point/wind/pressure/etc), but also from data the satellites give us (such has cloud temperatures). When that data is missing, then the big equations that are crunched by the super-computers to output a model forecast can be way off. If you’d like to read more detail on all of this, here’s a good article from the Washington Post.
So we’ll need to see if this sudden shift in the overall weather is bad data from the models, or if the cold is really planning to pay us a visit.

To focus a little on the short-term, we have a few sports events going on Sunday. Both the Chiefs and Sporting KC will play. If you’re heading to either (or both) games, here’s what you can expect:
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For the Royals tonight in San Francisco, wind could play a factor in their game. Tonight the winds are going to be breezy (on the order of 10-20mph) through the game and blowing out. This may help the ball carry just a bit farther. Here’s an idea of how the winds will blow across the ballpark in San Francisco tonight:
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I know many will be keeping an eye on the Royals game tonight, so here’s to hoping they do well. I have a feeling this series comes back to KC. But that’s not a bad thing; not at all.

Enjoy the warm and windy Sunday. I’ll have another blog post Sunday evening and we’ll talk more about the spooky Halloween forecast.
-JD

Royals In San Francisco Weather

Good morning bloggers,

While the weather in Kansas City continues to be incredibly nice, there is a storm approaching the west coast. This storm will bring some rain into the San Francisco Bay region with bands of rain and some lingering showers that may impact the World Series game.

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The weather today looks great, and it will dry out on Sunday. But, in between this system will send most of it’s energy across Oregon and Washington but it will trail southeast into the San Francisco Bay:

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Have you entered the snowflake contest?  Go to this link on the graphic below and enter. Good luck! There is no sign of any cold air at the moment.

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Have a great weekend! And, Go Royals!  I did write up an important blog on the Weather2020 site discussing the developing winter pattern. It is still very early!

Gary

Morning Showers & Then Very Nice

Good morning bloggers,

The Royals had another great night for baseball on Wednesday, and they celebrated with a huge victory in game two of the World Series. The World Series now shifts west to San Francisco on Friday with today being a travel day. Rain is moving across early this morning:

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This radar image was from 5:45 AM showing the heaviest downpours approaching the south side of the KC metro area.  The sun will return this afternoon and we will look ahead in an updated blog later today.

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This picture was taken at the end of the National Anthem last night!  Have a great Thursday!  Go Royals!

Gary

Some Rain Enters The Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern continues to go through it’s seasonal transition.  Right now, as we continue to wait for our first freeze, the weather pattern is anything but a cold one.  Back in 1996 on this date there was a 6 to 8 inch snowstorm in what was called “the October Surprise”.  Rain changed to snow as Kansas City had it’s first freeze that year with a temperature of 32 degrees with very heavy snow. Look around today!  You will see that all of the trees are full of leaves changing color. Well, in 1996, that heavy snow caused the power lines to crash down as the tree branches broke and fell into them. There were major power outages.

2It was a strong, or really a powerful storm system that formed into a deep upper love right over Kansas. A cold and dry air mass was in place over the northern plains and this cold air got pulled into the developing system.  I was working the morning shift and predicting very heavy rain that may change to snow. That morning when the rain started changing to snow, Dave Beausterin a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, called me and thought we may get 1-3 inches of snow. By noon it was snowing like crazy, and we updated the forecast many times and the temperature dropped to 32 degrees with around 8 inches on the ground and weighting down the trees to cause the power outages.  The lowest the temperature got was 32°. It was really an incredible weather day.

The storm that is approaching now is not even close to a storm of the strength of that one in 1996.

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There will be bands of clouds today with a few sprinkles around, but most of the day will be dry.  It will be another really nice night for baseball.  A weak storm system will swing across the plains early Thursday bringing with it a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. The system will be all stretched out, and yet strong enough to produce this forecast band of rain:

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After this goes by, we are expecting a big warm-up into the weekend.  Now, let’s score some runs tonight and get this World Series even.  Have a great day!

Gary

Great World Series Weather

Good morning bloggers,

Can you believe it? The Kansas City Royals are in the World Series against the San Francisco Giants. Every morning, when I wake up, I just can’t believe it. It is like a dream.  Well, it’s real and it begins tonight. The weather could not be any better as we move into the last week of October.

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The weather for Wednesdays game also looks great. There is a little system that will sneak past our area on Thursday.

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We will discuss this chance of rain today and tonight. It will come in way after the game Wednesday night.  I just got back from Las Vegas, and I am back on the air tonight on 41 Action News.  Here is an exhibit I had walked be a few times, and finally went downstairs to see what this scary exhibit was all about.

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Have a great Tuesday. We will look ahead into the changing weather pattern in Wednesday’s blog.

Gary