I got the day off and watching this weak and disorganized weather system move across today has been just another disappointment. The final band of showers is moving across between now and 8 PM with some snowflakes being reported up north. We will see if any mix in as this passes through Kansas City. Jeff Penner and George Waldenberger are tracking these developments on NBC Action News. The same thing that has happened with the very few other systems we have seen this winter is happening again right now. Watch this band expand and increase as it moves east of the state line. It may very well changeover to snow, as shown on the earlier map I posted this morning, but again well east of Kansas City.
We have an interesting weather day unfolding in the next 12 hours, well interesting for 2012. It is too similar to our last snow event to get me very excited about this at the moment. A system will be strengthening and organizing aloft as it approaches us this evening. Bands of precipitation will form later this afternoon, but temperatures will likely be warming up into the 40s before the precipitation forms. Rain will be the first type of precipitation with a change over to snow most likely in the lighter blue shade below:
There is a wave of energy aloft that appears it won’t quite get it’s act together until it is east of the state line. The last very light snow event we had did produce an inch from around Blue Springs, MO eastward. Let’s see how this evolves this evening. The snowflake contest will go deep into February if this forms as I have shown on the map above. We still have to watch this closely tonight as the disturbance drops in over Kansas and tracks into Missouri.
Have a great Friday. Thanks for stopping by the Action Weather Blog. We will be tracking these developments on NBC Action News all day.
It’s FRIDAY! The data coming in early this morning is looking more like snow to us in the NBC Action Forecast Center. The disturbance heading our way has a chance of intensifying in time to create a more organized band of precipitation this afternoon and evening. Will it be cold enough at the surface?
I will go over more details at around 8 AM this morning. In the mean time, Meteorologist Brett Anthony is on the air from 4:30 AM on this morning with live updates as the new data comes rolling in.
Have a great start to the day. I will write up a new blog around 8.
The new NAM has come out and it continues a trend of showing less precipitation and warmer surface temperatures. This means Friday afternoon may see a band of rain showers with mixed snow and no accumulation. Total liquid may be around .10″. Now that being said, it is the end of January and we still have to watch it closely. But, there is a trend.
I am filling in for Gary tonight at 10 PM and I will have a new Powercast.
Is it possible? I will add more thoughts soon. I just talked with 400 kids at Brookwood Elementary school in Leawood, KS. The kids were awesome.
Here is the latest NAM model simulated reflectivity valid at 3 PM Friday:
Once again, the above map is the simulated radar reflectivity valid at 3 PM Friday. Below, you can see one of our Powercasts showing the 5 PM precipitation and type forecast. The green is rain, and the blue to pink is snow to heavy snow. How organized will this really be? What will the temperatures be? I will be going over this tonight at 4:30, 5, and 6 PM:
Now, slightly weaker and guess what happens? If it is just slightly weaker this will be a band of rain and possibly snow showers mixed with sleet and no accumulation. Now just slightly stronger…..then we could have an inch of snow. The NAM is by far the strongest and it doesn’t even quite have an inch near KC. Have a nice evening! Oh, there are two people that picked tomorrow in the Snowflake contest. After tomorrow we get down to the final dozen.
Visibilities dropped to near zero in some areas before sunrise with the formation of dense fog. A weak wind shift will move through later this morning and it will wipe out the fog before noon.
Snowflakes are possible late Friday afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance will be approaching the region. There is a chance of showers increasing Friday afternoon and evening. A few snowflakes or some sleet may mix in with some rain in these showers, but once again we aren’t expecting anything too organized. There is a trend towards more organization and we will be going over the details on our newscasts today and tonight. If this gets a bit more organized there will be a chance of some minor accumulation Friday evening.
The pattern continues to cycle and I just wrote up an extensive blog on the AO, the LRC, and more: click here for details: LRC Weather Blog
The snowflake contest continues and if Friday’s chance goes by without an inch we will be down to the final dozen out of over 5,500 entries:
We are moving into the last week of January and still waiting for our first inch of snow. KCI Airport has recorded 0.4″ of snow all season. Do you think we could end up with a record shattering winter and break the all time lowest seasonal total of 4.5″? How much snow do you think will be the final total for the season?
The Arctic Oscillation has dipped into the negative during the past two days, but I don’t see any sign of blocking of splitting of the flow. There is still a higher amplitude stream that keeps holding most of the coldest air far to the north. I will open up this discussion with an AO blog either tomorrow or Friday.
So, we continue to look for something exciting. There is a wave of energy approaching the west coast this weekend that should drop into the the southern Rocky Mountain states by the middle of next week. The GFS model has refused to do this digging, and instead it, and other models, continues to have a lack of any storm indicated all the way through. As a result the snowflake contest continues with no end in sight.
Have a great day. I will work on a more extensive and in-depth blog soon.
The strongest Solar Radiation Storm since September, 2005 is in progress and continues to get stronger and a very fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is headed towards Earth. The geomagnetic storm has not yet arrived here at Earth but we are watching the ACE spacecraft very carefully. However, due to the energetic protons, some of the sensors have been blinded. SWPC forecasters are expecting the arrival of the CME in the next few hours.
Back in Kansas City we are north of a very wet storm that will be affecting many of the drought stricken areas of Texas and Oklahoma. They have continued to get wet storm systems through the fall and winter, but we continue to stay dry in this first month of 2012. Take a look at the rainfall forecast for the next 48 hours:
We will see some clouds increase from the south as this storm passes by, but other than that it looks dry until further notice. Have a great day! Thanks for stopping by the Action Weather Blog!
It will start out windy and cloudy this morning with sunshine returning by noon. The Arctic air that came down last week has been forced north and it has retreated way up into central and northern Canada. There will be three storm systems to track in the next ten days, but all three seem unlikely to produce snow. The third one has the best chance to produce wide spread precipitation into the area later next week, but could this again be in the form of rain. We have now had two thunderstorm days this month and we are still waiting for the first inch of snow.
Would anyone ever make this following prediction for the winter?: “Kansas City will have the lowest snow total in recorded history. There will not be one inch of snow”. The last time this happened is when the earth was made of molten rock. I am just baffled by the lack of snow, the lack of any chances of snow. We thought rain would cut into snow totals and the drought areas would get significant relief. I just didn’t think it would be snowless in KC. Maybe if I go in this direction everything will change. Maybe not?
The dogs are enjoying the mild winter. Stewey has come over for a ten day visit. Breezy and Stormy are being great hosts. Here they are ready to eat breakfast:
We will go into more details on NBC Action News today and tonight.
If it’s not going to snow this winter, we might as well have t-storms! Weird winter 2012 continues.
T-storms have exited the Metro NE…still think chance for any snow in KC later tonight is very slight! Update and video from the passing t-storms on the 10pm news.
-GW
Previous blog below.
Good Morning!
After some early morning mist, it’s a warmer day today than the last 5. As far as snow, it quite possibly may tonight, but we need:
(A)cold enough temperatures in KC
(B)while there is still precipitation falling
We could use some snow, right?
Just a sliver of the normal snowfall for the season has fallen so far. But we should be able to squeeze out a few snowflakes tonight.
As the low approaches, temperatures warm into the 50s today with our south wind-the chance for any more drizzle during the day is very slight. By this evening, as the surface low is very near KC, I believe we’ll get our second round of mist/drizzle…possibly even some light scattered showers. (thunder?)
While we wait for the wind shift from the northwest around 9pm, temperatures are mild. So any precip through 10pm or 11pm would likely fall as rain. After the 10pm news, possibly later, is when we have the best chance for snowflakes to mix in. We will have to wait for the temperatures to get cold enough to support snow. The problem is, precip will likely end by 3 am, and that only gives us a brief window for the chance for snow.
Latest RUC forecast model indicates we may not be cold enough for snowflakes until after midnight. So while some snow is likely tonight for KC:
(A) it may only be a brief round of light snow while many people are sleeping
(B) it’s not likely we’ll have enough to have an impact on the morning commute
I’ll have an update at 5/10pm tonight. Be good, have a great weekend!
Good morning!
For those of you who think we have been short-changed with respect to winter…hey, at least it feels like it this morning! That’s the comfort for today’s cold weather.
These clouds may not clear out today. It’ll be cold all day.
Hopefully, a southeast breeze this afternoon can help warm us up to 30°, but that breeze is creating those cold wind chills.
Tonight the winds pick up ahead of our next storm system. These south winds may warm us from the mid-20s this evening to near 40 tomorrow. Clouds will be on the increase for Sunday as well, and we’ve been talking about the chance for rain…but it’s not looking to promising. I’ll may update our forecast to areas of drizzle or a slight chance for rain for tomorrow on tonight’s newscast.
And that chance for snow tomorrow night, well, that’s also fading. Below is the latest NAM forecast for the precipitation from 6pm to 6am.
The area of snow seems to be shifting farther northward for Sunday evening. I’m not completely ruling snow out for tomorrow evening, but the chance is low. The GFS model tracks the surface low farther south, closer to KC. As a result, the snow on the back side gets a little closer to KC Sunday evening. We’ll analyze the new data tonight at 5/6/10 and update the forecast.
Have a good weekend and be safe…thank you for checking out this blog.
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