Watch for rain & tumbling temps on Sunday

For the first time in almost two weeks, our highs were above average in Kansas City today. And that was despite the cloud cover.
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Tonight I am expecting rain to move into the area while many of us sleep. There could be a few hit & miss showers overnight along with some drizzle. Temperatures will stay in the 50s so there is no threat of any frozen precipitation. At least, not tonight.

It’s looking to me like the heavier rain will stay just off to the East of KC on Sunday, but there could be one or two pockets of moderate rainfall that pass over us. As for amounts, I’m thinking we’ll see a range of 1/4 of an inch to about a full inch by the end of the day Sunday. Forecast models are not quite in agreement on how much rain will fall. The latest NAM & RPM are depicting higher amounts, while the 18z run of the GFS comes in much drier.

NAM Total Precip - via WeatherBell

NAM Total Precip – via WeatherBell

By 6pm Sunday, NAM suggests around a quarter of an inch in Kansas City. Meanwhile, just to the South & East, amounts around 1″.

RPM Rainfall amounts

RPM Rainfall amounts

The RPM is aggressive with heavy rain amounts in Kansas City, suggesting 3/4 to an inch in the city by 6p Sunday.

GFS Total Precip - via WeatherBell

GFS Total Precip – via WeatherBell

The GFS is not too giving with the rainfall, as it claims we’re lucky to even get a 1/4 of an inch. It is worth noting the GFS does pick up on higher rain amounts to the East and North.

The other story for Sunday will be falling temperatures. I expect us to start out in the middle 50s, then by about 4:00pm, cold air will push in and drop our temperatures into the 40s. We will need to watch and see if the true cold air (below freezing) can catch up to the moisture. I think it will do so Sunday night, once the precip is in Eastern Missouri. When this happens, there will be a little wintry mix to light snow in Eastern Missouri. But again, we’ll need to monitor this. Should the cold air catch up to that precip early, the mix and light snow will develop back to the West in Central Missouri. Obviously, I’ll have a better handle on this tomorrow afternoon. At this time, I do not see a threat for frozen precipitation in Kansas City this weekend. Snow-lovers will have to continue to wait.

Looking ahead to the holiday, we will have another shot of cold air knocking on the door. The forecast high for Thanksgiving will depend on which forecast model you believe in. As of this afternoon, the Euro model says a cold front will just pass through the area on turkey day.
EURO Sfc

Meanwhile, the GFS says that front runs out of gas and does not make it here until Friday.
GFS SFC

If you are a fan of the “numbers”, the Euro says our high on Thursday is 30°. The GFS says 45°. That’s a bit of the spread! Right now, I’m going to lean toward the Euro and put our highs in the middle 30s. As always, that is heavily subject to change depending on the placement and timing of the next cold front.

For now, we will focus on the rain for Sunday (free car wash) and that next shot of cooler air for Monday, as highs return to the upper 30s.
-JD

Corridor of Fog and A Sunday Change

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

The ground has been cold and warm/moist air has surged north overnight.  As the warm/moist air runs over the cold ground, the moist air cools and condenses near the surface.  This is creating the fog.  Most of the fog is in a corridor from northeast Iowa to northern Oklahoma, clipping the northwest side of the city.  This will continue this morning, possibly shifting east a bit before the warm and moist air takes over and the fog pushes away.

SATURDAY MORNING VISIBILITY:

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This afternoon and night will be mild with a high today of 60° and temperatures tonight staying in the mid to upper 50s.  There will be a few showers from time to time and some drizzle, but rainfall amounts will be a trace-.05″.

SATURDAY AT 3 PM:

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A significant change arrives Sunday as a storm system evolves over the middle of the USA as it moves quickly to the east.  Colder air will move in during the afternoon as rain and wind increase during the afternoon.  Could we see snow Sunday night?  If the storm really gets organized fast, we could see a period of wet snow before the storm exits.  One factor is that the colder air moving in has a mix of Pacific in it, so temperatures by Monday morning will be 33° to 35°.  So, it will take a heavy snow and stronger storm system for us to have an issue.  It is something to watch.  JD will have an update later today with new data.

SUNDAY AT 1 PM: You can see the colder air moving in and increasing rain.

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Enjoy the mild day and have a great weekend.

Jeff

Rain Today & On The Edge Of Heavy Rain Sunday

Good morning bloggers,

Do you have travel questions for the holiday week? This pattern is changing fast and I will answer your questions at 6:30 PM tonight. Here is the link:

The Chiefs lose in a game that was impacted by the weather. While the Chiefs were bland and being out played by a bad football team in the first half, it was raining, and it was raining hard. It had to impact their moods and play. Then, there was a very  bad call by the referee that helped Oakland’s game winning drive.  The Chiefs are in trouble now, and I know this isn’t a sports blog, but just wanted to vent.  Let’s switch subjects back to weather.  Temperatures will likely warm above freezing before the rain begins. We did go with a 90% chance of rain today, moving in later this morning into this afternoon.  Last night after the game I strongly stated, “there is no chance of any ice in the morning. You need to have clouds first”. And, I clearly showed the low level moisture surging across the Texas/Oklahoma border way to the south at 11:30 PM last night.  That moisture is definitely on the move but the rain will hold off until after it warms to above freezing.

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The temperatures will start well below 32° by 6 AM, but then the clouds will surge in and temperatures will rise above freezing before any rain develops.  By Saturday a much stronger storm will begin forming and we will likely see a few bands of showers, but the main storm won’t be forming until around early Sunday morning.

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By Sunday, here is one solution that does forecast a nice band of rain:

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We will keep you updated. Kalee Dionne is on this morning with JD Rudd helping out.  Have a great start to Friday!  Our preliminary look into winter will be on Tuesday night at 10 PM, and then our entire weather team will be making their snowfall predictions on December 4th on our Weathering Winter special.  And, JD Rudd will also be on Let’s Ask America on Monday at 3 PM. We have a lot going on! Good luck JD!

Gary

Major Changes Are Happening

Good late Wednesday night/Thursday morning bloggers,

Our weather team has been working hard at identifying this weather pattern and what it will mean for the winter.  We taped part of our Weathering Winter special that will be on December 4th at 6:30 PM.  We will finish that show by the 4th with our winter forecast revealed then. I will be going over the pieces of the LRC Puzzle that are coming together on Tuesday night at 10 PM and I will make a preliminary forecast for winter snowfall at that time.  But, the full winter forecast will be on December 4th. I have always wanted to wait until the first week of December and we are going to do it this year.

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There is a lot going on in the changing weather pattern, and it will have impacts on Kansas City the next few days. The cold air has been quite stubborn and on another cold shot arrived Wednesday afternoon. The cold air will finally retreat and the one spot that will welcome any kind of warm-up more than everyone else will be Buffalo, NY.  Over 75″ of snow in the past three days, are you kidding me. I wish I was there. What an experience, but also scary as seven people have been killed by the winter weather.  As you look at the map I posted, you can see many features. The cold and deep upper level trough is lifting northeast and the jet stream is flattening out.  A split is developing near the west coast and there are two storm systems to track between now and Sunday. Both of these systems will likely bring rain to our area. And, Friday has to be watched closely.  It will be 25° for a low early in the day and rain may develop as that lead little wiggle in the flow moves this way.  A second system is heading into California tonight and this will likely bring rain to Oakland and this will likely affect the Chiefs/Raiders game tonight, which is on your 41 Action News station at 7 PM.  We have an hour long special at 6 PM.  That storm will dig south all the way into northern Mexico, pick up some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and we have upped the chance of rain to 80% Saturday night into Sunday.

What about Thanksgiving week? The models are all over the place, but I see two possible big warm-ups. Things are changing fast. Hold on for the ride and we will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

Gary

From the Freezer to the Refrigerator

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Well, as we forecast days ago, we smashed a record low this morning as we dropped to 6°.  The old record was 14° set in 1903.

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The coldest of the air is retreating, but today through Friday we will still see highs in the 30s with lows in the 20s.  This is still 10-15 degrees below average, but much better than what we just experienced.  Today’s high will reach 35° and this will be the first time we cracked freezing since last Tuesday.  So that will make 7 days below 32° which also smashed the previous November record of 4 straight days below 32°.

Highs Tuesday:

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Wednesday will see a cold front push through, but the thrust of the cold air will be more to the east than south as the deep eastern North America trough pushes east and flattens out.  So, our highs will stay in the 30s as warmer air builds south.  We will have to watch for low clouds from the north.  If they come in, then it will be a bit cooler that we are forecasting.  At this time, we will go with a sunnier solution.

Wednesday weather:

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We then turn our attention to a weekend change as a storm system drops into the southwest USA from the Pacific ocean.  This will do many things to our weather.

1.  It will pump warm air north and we will likely surge to the 50s this weekend as Gulf of Mexico moisture surges north.

2.  A large area of low clouds, drizzle and light rain showers will form Friday over much of the region as the warm/moist air heads north, up and over the current cold air in place.  So, Friday, before the warmer arrives we have a chance of  drizzle with temperatures in the 30s.

3.  We will then have to track the storm system closely.  The current data has the storm tracking too far south to bring us significant rain this weekend.  As is we will have highs in the 50s with a slight chance of light rain.  If the storm comes about 100 miles further north, we will have heavier rain with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.  We will follow this all week.

Friday weather:

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff