Quantcast

Fast Moving Storm System & Thanksgiving Week

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking a storm system moving 60-65 mph across the Plains and Midwest today. Since, the storm system is moving so fast we will see rapid weather improvement this afternoon.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

11

Here is how fast the storm is moving as we look back at the surface pattern since Friday evening.

8 PM FRIDAY: It was around 60° in KC and in the 70s over much of Oklahoma. A surface low was found in northeast Kansas with colder air moving south across Nebraska.

1

3 AM SATURDAY: The cold front was moving south across KC as temperatures ranged from the 70s in southwest Missouri and eastern Oklahoma to the 30s in Nebraska.

2

8 AM SATURDAY: The cold front was racing by I-44 as the surface low was northwest of St. Louis. Temperatures dropped to the 40s in KC, but it was still near 70° in St. Louis. Winds were gusting 30 to 40 mph in eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

3

8 AM SATURDAY: Rain, mostly light with moderate to heavy downpours was widespread across the region. Remember, it is moving east at 60-65 mph! Rainfall totals will range from around .05″ to .50″.

4

3 PM SATURDAY: The storm will be mostly east of the Mississippi river and the sun will be out here in KC with highs back to around 50°. The wind will be decreasing, but still gusting 20-30 mph from the northwest.

5

SUNDAY MORNING: It will be clear, calm and cold with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

6

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This is the day to get the leaves up, hang the Christmas lights or clean the lint trap. It will be sunny, with a 5-15 mph southwest wind along with highs 50° to 55°. Highs will be near 60° in western Kansas and that will be our weather Monday.

7

We will look in more detail at the Thanksgiving holiday on Sunday, but here is a look at the biggest travel day of the year.

WEDNESDAY: There will be a large ridge in the western USA and trough in the Midwest extending to the southeast USA. There are no big storm systems on this day, but there will be showers in the Pacific Northwest, rain in the deep southeast USA and perhaps a small snow system in the upper Midwest.

8

It will be warm and dry in the southwest USA, cold from the northern Plains to Midwest, Great Lakes into the southeast USA.

9

Have a great rest of your weekend.

Jeff Penner

The 6-Day Thanksgiving Day Surface Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Cloudy and mild. High:65°
  • Saturday: Colder and windy with morning showers ending, then becoming sunny. High: 50° (55 at midnight tonight)

Remember, its a classic panic period. How many times have I said that now. Nothing is showing up on any model. There is blocking going on. The LRC is still coming into focus. And, we just have to continue our patience.  This pattern right now seems so dysfunctional.  But, we do have one system approaching:

1

This map above shows the surface forecast valid this evening. This storm moving across the northern Rocky Mountains is a fast moving wave that will rip across the plains on Saturday and intensify as it moves into then northeast. A cold front will move through, and I thought there may be a few snowflakes in KC, but the trend is for it to be way too warm.  It warmed up from 43 degrees at 8 PM last night to 56 degrees by 6 AM this morning. Wow, a 13 degree warm up overnight.

Thanksgiving Day Forecast:

2

We are now just six days away from Thanksgiving Day. Look at the GFS forecast from last nights 06z model run (midnight central time).  Wow. I could not even draw a front in. It is a very dry pattern nationwide on Thanksgiving with the exception of the Pacific northwest that is about to have a very stormy winter.  For KC, this means the weather will be fantastic for the traditional Plaza Lighting Ceremony. The Kansas City Chiefs Alex Smith and Derrick Johnson will help me and a kid flip the switch Thursday night.

Have a great day. Thank you for participating in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over toe Weather2020 and join in the conversation. Our winter forecast comes out one week from Monday.

Gary

When Will This Pattern Shift Into Stormier & Colder?

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. High: 54°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy with a shower or two possible.  High:  64°

So, how is everyone doing? Are you making it through this “panic period”?  I warned you all, and in reading through the comments there are those that look at every computer model and when something exciting shows up, then a few of you seem to get so excited, then when it goes away and it looks like it will be a boring winter based on one computer model, many of you then jump on that solution.  We have something special in the LRC and the cycling pattern. We know something very important. We know that the likely first day of this pattern was around October 6th or 7th. And, those first 17 to 20 days of this cycling weather pattern featured storms and troughs swinging inland over the west coast of the United States, dipping into the southern Rocky Mountains and plains before weakening over an eastern United States ridge. This is what we know. We know that this will come back. We just don’t know the cycle length of the pattern yet. It is most likely in the 44 to 50 day range, but that isn’t etched in stone yet either. If my assumption of this cycle is correct, then it is about to get exciting right after Thanksgiving for around a 17 to 20 day stretch of days.

1

How the 17 to 20 day stretch of excitement in the pattern performs will go a long way to helping us narrow in on the low end total, or narrow in on the high end total in the projection I made two nights ago on 41 Action News.

Today’s Weather Pattern:

1

There is a trough swinging across the west coast of North America today.  This will move east and warm the plains up on Friday before a cold front moves through by Saturday.

Where Does This Storm Track?

2

This second map above shows the 500 mb flow valid this Sunday, as we move into Thanksgiving week. There are still many uncertainties for next week, but it appears the more likely week for the huge shift into those 17 to 20 days of excitement is about to begin.  I can see and sense it happening, and it could happen much faster, so let’s keep paying attention. A lot of you have been reading the blog for a long time, many years, so you know if I get excited about this I will let you know. I have yet to get excited by looking at these models, as I have not been anticipating this change until around ten days from right now.

The storm that swings across the west coast will then move out over southeastern Canada by Saturday night and Sunday:

4

This maps shows the storm over southeastern Canada on Sunday when the Chiefs will be kicking off to the New York Giants, or vice versa. I will be there in New York visiting my brothers family and seeing my Aunt Margy.  It will likely be cold but dry for the game. And, I get a New York experience Saturday night.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to Weather2020.com, click on the blog, and join in the great conversation we are sharing.

Gary

Winter Forecast Preliminary Thoughts

Good morning bloggers,

Last night we discussed our preliminary thoughts on the winter forecast.  We are seeing some different directions this winter will go, and our full winter forecast comes out a week from Monday with our “Wonders of Winter” special a::30 November 27th.

1

There is a La Niña developing. In the past week the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures dropped significantly down -1.1°C  below average in the critical 3.4 region. This is a rather important index to monitor.  I did an analysis of all of the past 100 years or so of records and in moderately strong La Niña influenced winters the average snowfall is much higher than when La Niña remains weak.  We will learn more in this next week on these water temperatures.

This Weeks Weather

Many of you continue to look at the medium range models every few hours.  These come out every 6 to 12 hours, depending on the model. Remember, “The Panic Period” (read the blog from a few days ago).  The classic panic period happens from mid to late November.  In my experience in finding the cycling pattern each fall, I have found that this time of the year is the hardest as we still have not seen the rest of the first LRC cycle.  So, let’s just concentrate on these next three days for now.

1

This map above shows the temperature forecast valid at 3 PM Friday from the NAM model. Some models have it warmer over eastern Kansas, but the trend in recent weeks is for there to be a lot of low clouds. This NAM model shows temperatures in the 50s near KC, while the GFS has temperatures near 70 degrees. It is forecast to reach the lower 80s near the Kansas/Oklahoma border.  Cold air is building over Canada.  This warm surge comes ahead of a storm system that will intensify as it heads into the northeastern United States by Saturday morning.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go over to Weather2020.com and join the blog there for free as we continue our great weather discussion.

Gary

What Do You Think Will Happen This Winter

Good morning bloggers,

Welcome to the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  What do you think is going to happen this winter? Let’s test your LRC skills.  Go over to the blog here:  Weather2020 blog and let us know what you are seeing and I will share some of these on the air Tuesday night on 41 Action News. I will be providing a preview to the winter forecast Tuesday night at 10 PM.  The full winter forecast comes out two weeks from today.  The weather pattern is fascinating. According to my hypothesis, a unique weather pattern sets up every fall from around October 1 to November 30. The pattern then is established, cycles regularly, and continues through the next September.  As discussed last week, we are in the “panic period” where we are now still seeing parts of the pattern for the first time. What has happened in the past five weeks is of utmost importance, so when you make your prediction, think about that big picture.

The Developing Weather Pattern:

In 1982, my Junior year at the University of Oklahoma, I took Synoptic Meteorology and Synoptic Lab. We plotted so many maps back then and I got an A in Synoptic Lab. When you are plotting the 500 mb charts, you should draw in the 570 and 540 dm lines (dm stands for decameters).  The 500 mb level is half way through the atmosphere in weight. 0 mb, or no weight is the top of the atmosphere, and 1000 mb is near the surface.  This 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet up. I drew in these lines below:

1

A trough is forecast to swing across the west coast later this week. This map above is valid at 6 PM Thursday evening.  The map below is folic Sunday morning, when the Chiefs will be in East Rutherford, NJ to play the New York Giants. I am flying into New York Saturday for a two day trip and I have great seats to see if the Chiefs can beat the Giants to get to 7-3. I will be wearing a few layers as it looks pretty cold. Look at what happens to the trough as it moves into eastern North America:

2

Some blocking develops north of the upper low, and you can see this where I plotted the big H up there. The models continue to be all over the place after this period, and I still don’t trust them at all. Once we know the LRC better in just two weeks or so, we will begin to “know” when the models are right and “know” when they are likely wrong.

Screen Shot 2017-11-13 at 7.50.01 AM

The latest Arctic Oscillation Index came in this morning with the ensemble members of the models showing a very likely huge dip to negative that we have been waiting for, anticipating, and maybe it will actually happen. If this dip does indeed happen this week, the next ten days should become more unpredictable and if the pattern blocks up, the chance of an Arctic Blast will increase. Again, there are too many uncertainties at this moment.

3

At the surface, you can see this storm beginning to intensify as it moves out into the plains states Friday.  As this storm moves east it picks up some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a blizzard forms just north of the Great Lakes over southeast Canada.

4

So, what do you think will happen this winter. Join in the conversation over at Weather2020 where we are sharing this technology with you.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading todays blog. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

Warmer Week Ahead

Good Sunday bloggers,

Today is day 17 in a row with below average temperatures as a warmer pattern lurks around the corner. We will be tracking a series of fast moving systems that will bring a pattern of fast changing air masses, but since the systems are tracking west to east there are no big cold air masses with the systems. We will be seeing mostly Pacific air.

Let’s go through the week ahead.

First, here is a look at our KC below average temperature stretch of weather. It started on October 27th and will end either Monday or more likely Tuesday.

1

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The clearing line will be moving south into northwest Missouri. Highs will rise to 49°-53° in the sun areas and stay 45°-49° in cloud areas.  KC is on the line. This data has a high of 52°, but we are going 50°, again sun dependent.

2

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING: Low clouds will fill back in and there will be fog as well.  Some of the fog may be rather dense and if temperatures are below freezing we could see some black ice. However, the latest data is trending a bit warmer and every degree will make a difference.  So, tomorrow morning be aware of low visibility and possible slick spots.

3

MONDAY AFTERNOON: There will be some sun and again, more sun highs will be 50°-55° and more clouds, highs will be 45°-50°. We are leaning in the cloud direction.

4

TUESDAY MORNING: Our next system will be moving in and low clouds will cover all locations with some drizzle possible. Temperatures will be quite mild with lows 45°-50°. A south wind will be increasing to 10-20 mph.

5

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: It will be cloudy, breezy and mild with a few showers or drizzle as highs climb to the 50s.

6

WEDNESDAY: Lows will be in the 50s as south winds and clouds Tuesday night along with drizzle keep temperatures up. So, when a weak cold front moves by Wednesday morning, the sun will come out and our high will be around 60°.

7

THURSDAY: It will be clear Wednesday night with lows in the 30s ahead of our next storm system. A new warm front will be surging north so more low clouds, drizzle, fog and a few showers will arrive Thursday with highs around 50°. The warm front will surge by Thursday night as the storm system is pretty strong and tracks to our north. So, our high Thursday may be reached at 11:59 PM and could be close to 60°.

8

FRIDAY: Look at the temperature at 9 AM Friday, 63°. Yes, we may see our Friday high in the morning in the 60s ahead of another cold front as a strong storm system races along I-80. The front is not that strong (Pacific Air) so Friday afternoon would see temps mostly in the 50s. Next weekend looks calm after the storm system with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

9

Total rainfall this week will be .05″ to .45″, so probably not enough in one event to get that fertilizer down. It is good to get a November lawn fertilization in before the winter sets in.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

A Cold Stretch and Rain Chances

Happy Veteran’s day bloggers,

We are in for a cold weekend with a very good chance of drizzle and light rain. Has it seemed cold for awhile? If your answer is yes, you are right. We have seen below average temperatures for 16 straight days, including today. Sunday and Monday will take the streak to 18. We do have warmer days in the forecast, Tuesday-Thursday will see highs around 60° as the humidity increases along with our chances of rain.

1

Let’s go through the weekend forecast as we track a system coming out of the Rockies.

SATURDAY MORNING: At the surface there is a low in southwest Kansas with a warm front extending into north central then southeast Kansas. Temperatures were near 50° this morning in southern Kansas and over 50° in Oklahoma. This warmer and moist air is heading northeast into our cool air and this is going to cause low clouds, fog, drizzle and light rain as a storm system heads east out of the Rockies.

9

SATURDAY (NOON): Drizzle and light rain will be increasing just to the west of the state line.

2

SATURDAY EVENING: Drizzle and light rain will be widespread across the area with perhaps a few moderate showers. Temperatures will be in the low 40s, so there will be no icing, just wet to damp roads. Now, if there are wet leaves on the ground, that can make it slick, so keep an eye out for that.

3

SATURDAY NIGHT: The drizzle will end after midnight, between 3 AM and 6 AM with temperatures around 40°.

4

SUNDAY MORNING: The rain and drizzle will be over, with low clouds and some fog around. The roads will be damp to wet with temperatures around 40°.

5

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The clearing line will move through and we should see some sun at least 1-2 hours before sunset. Highs will be 40°-45° if the clouds stay all day, but highs will reach near 50° if the sun comes out faster.

6

MONDAY MORNING: This is interesting as the sky will likely be clear Sunday evening along with a light wind as a surface high pressure settles over head. This is the set up for fog and low clouds due to the moisture still hanging around. If the fog forms and gets thick enough and lows drop to 27°-32° we could see some black ice. The chance is 20%, but something to monitor.

8

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: There will be two more systems to track as warmer and more humid air moves north. Highs will reach the 50s to low 60s these days with dew points similar. So, as these systems move by, more drizzle and rain showers will be possible later Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday. This does look like a thunderstorm set up, but mostly for locations well east, as the systems are moving quickly and it will not totally get their act together until they reach the Mississippi river. Now, that being said, we could see .10″ to .80″ of rain total the next 7 days, including today. The heaviest rain will occur east of the Mississippi river as it has been mostly doing the last three weeks.

7

Happy Veteran’s day and thank you for your service.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

The Leaves Begin Falling Faster

Good morning bloggers,

We had a very hard freeze in Kansas City this morning. It dropped to below 25 degrees and stayed there for six hours this morning.  This will cause the leaves to fall faster and also spark more trees to change color.  We had peak color this week, and there are still many gorgeous trees out there.  I got this picture of Sunny The  Weather Dog earlier today as the sun was rising:

DSCN4627

The weather pattern continues to set up for the season. We are now just over two weeks away from our official winter forecast. It will come out on Monday, November 27th. We will likely have a preliminary outlook in the next week.  We are still seeing more parts of this first LRC Cycle, so as I said yesterday, don’t panic as we are in the panic period. The models are all over the place. There has been one very consistent aspect to this pattern that continues from model run to model run. The fact that it has been dry out west, and it continues to be forecast to be dry out over the southwest.

16-day Precipitation Forecast:

1

I just need a few more days to analyze this developing pattern. I will be spending a few hours this weekend going over all of the pieces of the winter forecast puzzle.  Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town and thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

The Panic Period

Good morning bloggers,

We hope everyone is having a great Thursday.  It is a pretty quiet day across the United States.  There is a storm coming into the Pacific northwest, and this storm will then zip out over the plains states, and it will weaken considerably. It will help create some forecast problems this weekend.  As the Kansas City forecast problems are somewhat “boring” for us weather enthusiasts, we have to relax and be patient with this pattern. Could it be another year with less than 10″ of snow?  I believe that has never happened in KC history with three straight years under 10″ of snow.  I titled this blog, “The Panic Period” for a reason. Just when you think you have made some conclusions on the winter forecast, suddenly you see parts of the pattern that we have not seen yet. Remember, we are in this first LRC Cycle.  We are still experiencing it now.  I used to say that the pattern sets up from October 1st though November 10th, a cycle evolves, and then the pattern is set for the year. But, in reality, it takes until around the first week of December. This period of time from November 10th to November 30th used to be called the “Panic” period, as Jeff Penner and I have experienced over the years. But, to me it no longer is because we finally realized we are just experiencing more of this first cycle. The computer models are still mostly useless until we get another three weeks of pattern under our belt. So, I recommend, Don’t Panic.

Screen Shot 2017-11-09 at 8.16.13 AM

What is this? Wow! When we look at the GFS, the European Model, and others, we have seen very little blocking. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have had these ensemble members of the models dipping deep into negative territory. For those of you who love winter weather, well, you want to see this big dip actually happen. I have been expecting it to happen around the 22nd of November. If it does indeed dip that low, then there is usually a lag coefficient where the Arctic air build up would be created days after this big dip, and then it could be an Arctic blast and an energizing of the jet stream due to strong temperature contrast. But, is this forecast dip truly going to happen? It didn’t quite happen in the first cycle, in early October, but it actually came close to happening.  Let’s continue to follow this index.

Kansas City Time-Line:

A Cold front is moving through today and a very hard freeze is likely tonight.

  • Today:  Turning colder with winds increasing from the north up to 15 or 20 mph. High:  45°
  • Tonight:  A HARD FREEZE! Clear with a low of 20°
  • Friday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds. High:  39°
  • Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of drizzle or showers. High:  47°

Thank you for sharing and participation in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the blog at Weather2020.com and join in the conversation.  Have a great day.

Gary

Mostly Calm Weather Pattern…For Now

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Today we will see a full sunny day for the first time in about 7-10 days as the weather pattern is not to active.  We have one main system to watch the next seven day, and it arrives this weekend. So, let’s go through the forecast into the weekend and discuss potential changes after the 20th.

Today we have a surface high pressure overhead, so we are in for sunshine, light wind and highs around 50°. A system is tracking across the southern USA and is producing some decent rain with the help of Pacific moisture.

1

THURSDAY MORNING: It will be slightly warmer as we will have light southwest winds ahead of a cold front. Look at the low in Bismarck, ND, 10°!. This is a decent cold air air mass and has looked stronger as we have gotten closer to the front’s arrival.

2

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: The front will be moving away quickly and our winds will be shifted to the northeast.  There will be no precipitation with the front, just a few clouds.  Highs will be kept in the 40s, staying in the 20s across the northern Plains.

3

FRIDAY MORNING: We will start to see an increase in the clouds with lows around 30° as a strong surface high pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Our next storm system will be moving through the Rockies.

4

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: This is looking like a cloudy afternoon with temperatures struggling to 40° as this cold air mass is really entrenched in the Plains.

5

VETERAN’S DAY: The storm system is not that strong, but as it interacts with a shallow cold air mass it will create a complex surface pattern. But, all this means is that Saturday will be cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s along with the chance of a shower or some drizzle. The system will exit Sunday, but clouds and drizzle may linger into the early morning. If the sun can return Sunday then highs will be 45-50, otherwise highs may get stuck in the upper 30s and low 40s.

6

This is the upper level pattern next Tuesday which is representative of the weather pattern today through the 20th. That is, a pattern with fast-moving west to east systems that do not have much time to get their act together and produce much precipitation until they are east of the Mississippi river. This also prevents Arctic air from heading south into the USA. Yes, it will be cold Friday and Saturday, but this is not Arctic air.

7

RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS:

It has been rather dry since October 22nd and it will stay that way another 10 days. It is still good to do one more lawn fertilization in November and it would be nice to see .10″ to .50″ of rain/snow, but the next 7-10 days will be mostly dry, unless something crazy happens over this weekend.

8

There are still signs of a change after the 20th as not only are the AO and NAO forecast to go negative which increases the chance of blocking at high latitudes (increases the chance of cold air farther south, lower heights and bigger/slower storm systems), but we also expect storm systems to drop in to the southwest USA as we believe the pattern is about to show it’s cycle of 45ish days. This means the systems from October 7-20 will be showing up and when coupled with negative AO and NAO could make for some interesting weather to round out November, just not on Thanksgiving.

9

Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff Penner