A Preliminary Look Into The Winter Forecast

Good Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning bloggers,

This storm system is spinning north across Kansas, which finally broke the ice on the long dry spell that was shattered apart yesterday with over two inches of rain in many spots. There is another system approaching us on Friday and I will be discussing that one over on the Weather2020 blog. This current storm has been fascinating, and for those of you who believe in the LRC, well, then you know that this storm will cycle back through and likely around the first week of 2016. Happy New Year will likely have a major winter storm developing near by.  Another unique pattern is in progress. According to the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th, cycles regularly, and regional hot spots are identified where storm systems reach their peak strengths. The weather pattern is now set, but we still need two more weeks to analyze this first cycle. I will have the full winter forecast coming out in that first week of December when our Winter Forecast Special half hour show comes out. For now, let’s take a preliminary look:

Snow, rain, sleet, hail, thunder, lightning, drizzle, wind, and ice!  We are forecasting a wild weather pattern ahead. I have been making winter forecasts on the air since the mid-1990s and we are using breakthrough technology known as the LRC. It is a new technique that we believe will be a great tool for weather forecasting in the future.  Even though we have been using it for more than 20 years, it is still early in its development, but we are getting results. Using the LRC we have been making accurate weather forecasts down to a series of dates.  In the past two years the forecasts have been even more accurate.

Recent Accurate Forecasts:

  • Last winter we forecasted that Kansas City was likely not going to be in the right spot for storm systems, and we forecasted 17 inches of snow, below average snowfall. 14 inches fell, and we were almost always not quite in the right spot as most storm systems missed us.
  • 30 to 60 days before Arctic Air Blasted in we predicted they would happen last winter in late December and again in mid to late Febraury
  • Two years ago we forecasted 24 inches, and 26 inches fell.

So, how much are we forecasting this winter? I will let you know in just a minute.

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There is organization to the chaos in the upper levels of the atmosphere. There is a complex atmospheric puzzle, and we are cracking the code.  The LRC may indeed be the biggest piece, the center piece, but there are other factors that are weighed into our accuracy formula as we figure out this cycling pattern. One of these big factors is El Niño, the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

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This El Niño may be the strongest ever recorded, and there are already some influences on this overall pattern. Just the tornadoes we had on November 16th in a very rare location for this time of year may be related to the warmer climate. And, it is likely a result of the near record warm tropical Pacific Ocean water. What does this mean for Kansas City, and the rest of the United States?

One thing I know for certain, every El Niño is different. Every year is unique, whether there is an El Niño or not. Last year, Boston had over 100 inches of snow as a result of the pattern we were in a year ago? Who will have the record winter events this year?  We are currently identifying this pattern, and here is what we are forecasting at this preliminary stage.  In two weeks I will be writing up a full winter forecast, but for now take a look.

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We are forecasting near to above average temperatures across the entire nation.  There will be two to three stretches of very cold air, however, and we are currently identifying which parts of the pattern will most likely be very cold.  The jet stream is going to split at times, and the southern branch of the jet stream will likely blast into California with a few periods of very wet weather there, but there will also be longer dry periods to balance out that region to just above average on rain and snow.  The biggest wet area is most likely from Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas east to the Mississippi River Valley where flooding rains are likely. There may be a few minor icing events, and conditions appear that they will become favorable for one major ice storm that will likely include parts of Kansas and Missouri.

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One of the two main storm tracks is likely going to repeat many times this winter and into next spring.  This will lead to excellent ski conditions in the Rocky mountains and out west.  There are other parts of the pattern we will identify in the next two weeks.

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For Kansas City, we are forecast above average temperatures this winter. Rainfall will also be above average with some flooding rains possible.  It will be cold enough for one big ice storm, and five to ten snowstorms that will bring our total to 23” this season.

Our winter forecast special is on the first week of December. By then, we will have identified the rest of this winter’s pattern and I will write up an extensive winter forecast. Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

Tornadoes and Snow

Good Tuesday bloggers,

The significant storm system we have been talking about for days arrived Monday, and wow what a bunch of crazy weather it produced.  First, there were about 40 tornado reports from western Kansas south to the Texas panhandle.  This was quite rare for this time of year.  Usually when you have a tornado outbreak in November it occurs across the southeast USA, so that is one odd thing.  The other odd thing is that temperatures were in the 50s and 60s, and the tornadoes continued in to the night, in November?  Really?

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Here is the next crazy thing, it is now snowing where the tornadoes were yesterday.  This is the second time in 2 weeks this has happened in our region.  Last week it occurred in southeast Nebraska.

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Our area has received some beneficial rain with amounts 1″ to 2″ since midnight.  This is on top of the .10″ to .50″ from yesterday.  The rain will end by 2 PM with a new .10-.35″ likely.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING: The main band of rain will move off to the east tonight.  Then, we will be in the dry slot overnight with a partly cloudy sky.  Then, by tomorrow morning we will get into the back side, wrap around of the storm.  So, it will be cloudy and windy with a few rain showers as the storm system takes off to the northeast.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: The storm will exit quickly and we may see some peeks of sun before it sets.  The wind will be from the west at 15-30 mph tomorrow.

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The next system arrives Friday into early Saturday.  This has our attention as it could bring some rain and snow, very interesting.  We will have more on this in the coming days.

So, all of a sudden we are getting storm systems.  What does this mean for the winter? Gary Lezak will have his winter forecast tonight at 10 PM.

Have a great week.

Jeff

The Main Rain Arrives Tonight

Good Monday bloggers,

Last night we had the first round of rain with a lead disturbance.  Amounts were more generous across Missouri.  We need much more than this as most locations are in either a moderate drought or abnormally dry.  Let’s go through the forecast and time out the rain.

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TONIGHT:  The first round will arrive between 9 PM and midnight.

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TONIGHT (2 AM): Then we will see 2-3 more rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms racing north from Oklahoma where they could have severe weather.  A very heavy line of rain and thunderstorms will be out in central Kansas.  Once, this line moves by, the rain will diminish.

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TUESDAY (6-8 AM):  This is when the final heavy line will likely move through, so tomorrow morning’s rush hour may be a bit slow.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: The latest data has some generous amounts with 1″-2″ over most locations.  This is the RPM.  The new 12z GFS has about the same forecast.  The 12z NAM is now the only model to have eastern Kansas and western Missouri in a rain shadow with amounts .25″-.75″.  This is unlikely, but can not be ignored.  Let’s hope it is wrong.

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TUESDAY PM: After the rain exits, we will enter the dry slot of the storm.  This means we will see sunshine and highs well into the 60s.  The wrap around arrives Wednesday with low clouds, wind and a few rain showers.  Highs Wednesday will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

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Have a great week and enjoy the rain!

Jeff

Rain still on track | Taste of Winter next weekend

The main focus will be for the rain coming our way tonight into Monday and again Monday night into Tuesday. As of this evening, everything is still on track. This is the radar as of 5:20p.
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That rain should continue to work this way and arrive in the general Metro KC area after midnight. Best window, to me, looks to be about 1a to 3am for it to arrive.
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As it stands now, the steady to heavier rain should be out of the Metro area by the morning rush. That doesn’t mean the roads won’t be wet, however. So take your time as you head out and be sure to check the forecast, in case something has changed.

There looks to be another round of rain coming in for the lunch hour Monday.
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Otherwise, I expect a cloudy sky and mist/drizzle to linger off and on through the day. Aside from that, it’s going to be a very windy day. Sustained wind speeds around 20 to 30 miles per hour with the occasional gust near 40mph possible. Add a few rocks to the kids’ pockets or to your garbage cans!
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More rain still scheduled to come in for Monday night into Tuesday. This round could be a little bit heavier at times. Even a few rumbles of thunder would not surprise me. Once again, a lot of this should push out of the area by the mid morning hours on Tuesday.
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It’s also looking possible that we get the dry slot of the storm system to poke into the area Tuesday afternoon, clearing the clouds and giving us some sunshine.
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Should that happen, temps really could soar in the afternoon. Cherish the warm temperatures, because a change is coming…

Rainfall totals on this round of guidance are not as impressive as before, but still needed.
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The forecast is still consistent with keeping the heaviest rain in parts of Central and Eastern Missouri.

All right, let’s talk about next weekend. This could be our first taste of winter, one way or another. In terms of temperature, it’s going to be cold. This would be the temperature map at 7am on Sunday:
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And what about the moisture? There could be enough in the area to give us some showers Friday night into Saturday. The timing of that previously mentioned cold air will be key…

This is how the GFS sees the moisture falling:
ezgif.com-optimize (1)

And this is how the Euro plays it out:
ezgif.com-optimize (2)

Obviously, the GFS is more gung-ho about it. Tossing in that cold air, we’d likely turn those showers over to snow in a quick amount of time–again, providing the true cold air actually makes it here in time.
So with that thought in mind, this is what the GFS says for snowfall:
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And this is what the Euro thinks:
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So yeah, there is a big disagreement between the two models. Typical, I’d say.

All right, time to revisit the rule of winter snow forecasting… one model map, from one run of the guidance, a forecast does not become. So while this may look “awesome” or “great” or even “oh no, say it ain’t so, I don’t want snow!”… things will change about 83 times between now and next weekend. Matter of fact, the GFS snow map above is from the 18z (noon) run today. The previous run, 12z (6am), looked like this:
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Already some hefty change. Let’s not lose our collective mind over this just yet. Also, consider this: it’s mid November. It has to snow at some point. Has to.

That’s all I have for tonight. Remember the rain and the wind for Monday/Tuesday.
-JD

Needed rain headed our way

Plenty of wind again this afternoon and temperatures soared well above average. We topped out in the 60s today.
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Tonight, we’ll keep the breeze going. That’s going to help keep the temperatures up just a little bit. You may still need a jacket if you have plans outside.
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For Sunday, the sun will mix with clouds from time to time. And yes, the wind is back with us again. I expect it to be from the South around 15 to 25mph and a little gusty. Attention will then turn to the rain chances for tomorrow night. Moisture will be pull up from the South and could arrive here as early as 11pm Sunday.
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I think the better chances will be overnight into very early Monday morning. There should be a break in the steady rain through the day on Monday. However, the clouds will stay in place and I cannot rule out some mist/drizzle in some areas through various parts of the day. Oh, and the wind will be back again too.

Rain should return Monday night into Tuesday. And we could see some pockets of heavy rain Tuesday.
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Right now, the timing is moreso for the morning to the early afternoon Tuesday, with chances dropping off in the afternoon and evening.

The latest (10p) version of Powercast plays out Tuesday morning like this:
ezgif.com-optimize
I cannot rule out some lingering showers early Wednesday, but the system should start to pull away then. Three day rainfall totals won’t be as high for our area, as compared to parts of Eastern Missouri. But we’ll use any bit of rain the sky will give us. And the latest information Saturday night is promising. High resolution RPM model being generous. Let’s just hope it pans out…

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We’ll continue to track this and give you updates. Watch for our forecasts this weekend as the system gets closer. I have a feeling things may change a little bit more.

Looking ahead, it’s a little early to give any certainty, but the GFS model is hinting at snow in far NW Missouri for next Sunday. It’s just one run of one model, over a week out. No reason to get too excited, but we’ll earmark it and see how it all unfolds.

Hang on to your hats this weekend!
-JD