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A great, Good Friday!

Good Friday morning bloggers,

Michelle Apon here and I’ve have some wonderfully warm weather to tell you about.  Plus, details on the rain/storm chances for the end of the weekend.

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Gorgeous and Great Good Friday A warm front will lift through the area and to reflect that, daytime high temperatures will reach the upper 60s to near 70°.  Not only will it be warm, it will bright and sun-filled for today.

Royally radiant If you are planning on going to Kauffman stadium for the 7:10 p.m. Royals game, temps will start off in the mid 60s and will slowly fall to the upper 50s by 10 p.m.

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Egg-cellent Easter Weekend:  Most of Easter weekend will be warm.  On Saturday, highs temps will quickly heat to the upper 70s! It will be a perfect day for egg hunts or anything you have planned outdoors.  One thing to keep in mind, it will be windy on Saturday.

Saturday at the “K” will be nice with temps in the 70s.  If you are going to Sporting Park for the Sporting KC game on Saturday evening, the game will start off in the 70s, falling to the upper 60s by the end of the game.

A majority of Easter Sunday will be dry.  Daytime highs will heat to the lower 70s.

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Easter Sunday evening:  Rain and t-storms chances ramp up for NW MO and NE KS.

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Monday morning: The area will be dodging rain and a few storms as this system moves through the area. Rain will come to an end by Monday afternoon.

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Have a blessed Passover and Easter,

Michelle

Rainfall In The Past Five Years

Good morning bloggers,

As we search for some rain today we have had a big problem with getting above average rainfall for years. Our last above average year for precipitation came in 2010, which came after a wet 2009:

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After 2010 it has been a struggle.  Take a look at the last three years:

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If you add in this year’s deficit, then we are 25 inches of rain below average since 2010:

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The overall trend continues to be dry as we are now over 2 inches of rain below average again.  The next good chance of rain is on Easter Sunday. Between now and then it should be pretty nice, especially Friday and Saturday.

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Have a  great day. I am having a very little surgical procedure done today and I will be taking a couple of days off. Have a great Thursday! How about those Royals last night, let’s see if they can get a sweep today.

Gary

The Weather Pattern Is Still A Dry One

Good morning bloggers,

We have had some rain and snow in recent weeks, but the overall precipitation has been rather low. KCI Airport has one of the lower totals, but it still represents the below average precipitation that has fallen in most areas. There was that one wet storm that produced significant flooding in areas southeast of Kansas City recently, but besides that one storm we have still had these systems struggle to produce wide spread rainfall.

The next storm system will move across the area on Thursday. This type of storm would usually produce a very good chance of rain, but it is still caught in this year’s pattern. A negatively tilted upper level wave will pass by tomorrow evening as you can see below:

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There will likely be a thick band of clouds move across, but we are keeping rain probabilities low.  I have plotted the surface map below drawing in some of the ridges and troughs. When we learn how to draw these features in synoptic meteorology lab in college you draw in ridges with a squiggly line and troughs with a black dashed line:

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Notice how the rain forecast for Thursday afternoon by this model is forecast to form inside  that surface ridge which will make it somewhat suspect.  The best chance of rain may come on Easter Sunday. There is a weak and small scale storm system forecast to move across the plains and affect us later this weekend.

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The jet stream is forecast to retreat way to the north, and this will limit any severe weather potential for a few of these weak systems.  This Easter Sunday storm is still a bit suspect and the track of this system will continue to be in question for another few days.

Have a great Wednesday. It will be a windy and much warmer day. The winds will be gusting as high as around 40 mph this afternoon creating a high fire danger.

Gary

BBBBRRRRRR….

Good Morning Bloggers!

This is Kalee writing this morning.  Who got up to see the “Blood Moon”?  If you did then post a picture if you took one.  My picture is really bad, so I’m not going to post it here, but I will post this picture I took as the moon was setting this morning on our Golf Skyview.

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It is great that the clouds cleared out last night so we could see the Lunar Eclipse.  If you missed it don’t worry because you have 3 more times to see it over the next year and a half.  The clouds clearing and winds calming allowed temperatures to drop in to the upper 20s this morning for many spots. Here is a look at the morning low temperatures:

GFS

Boo to that right?  Who else planted some flowers a couple weekends ago?  I did, so brought some into my garage the past few nights.  We will start warming up this afternoon when our winds shift to the south and pump up the warmer air.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 50s.  Wednesday will be even better with temperatures back up into the 60s.  Enjoy!

Kalee Dionne

Freeze Warning!

Good morning bloggers,

There is a FREEZE WARNING for a hard freeze that is likely tonight.  Temperatures are already near freezing tonight as this latest cold blast arrives in the wake of yesterday’s storm system, and it will drop into the lower to middle 20s tonight.

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Snow! Yes, a day after a strong line of thunderstorms moved through it is snowing. We did it again, going from 80s to snow as temperatures reached into the 80s Saturday and now it is snowing.  Here is a picture from yesterday afternoon right before Breezy and Stormy left for the pet telethon:

Stormy Dogs

The rest of this week has some more weather drama to play out.  It will warm back up Wednesday before another cold blast and a storm approaches the area Wednesday night and Thursday.

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These two surface maps show the developing weather pattern. The one above shows our pressure gradient strengthening tomorrow. This will create a wind shift to the south with winds gusting to 30 mph by later tomorrow afternoon, and then the map below shows the advance strong cold front moving south on Wednesday:

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A storm system will likely develop on that cold front as it moves into the plains Wednesday night and Thursday.  An upper level storm will be moving out into the plains Thursday night and Friday, and there are a lot of questions still as to how much cold air will be available. Will it be a cold rain, or could we see more snowflakes.  This forecast map shows a surface low in Missouri, and usually this would mean very heavy thunderstorms, possibly severe at this time of the year. But, instead it is likely going to be an occluded front and it will create the conditions for a cold rain with a few thunderstorms.

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We will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Here is a picture of many of the volunteers that helped make the 14th annual KC Pet Telethon a success. Thank you so much Kansas City.

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Gary

Severe T-Storm Watch & Snow Is In The Forecast

Good afternoon bloggers,

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect the rest of the afternoon until 7 PM this evening. There may be a few severe thunderstorms with hail 1″ in diameter the main risk type. There may be a few thunderstorms that end up having some larger hail. The main threat this afternoon and evening may end up being flooding. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have formed along, ahead, and behind a cold front that is steadily pushing our way.

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The cold front is steadily moving southeast and there are two waves of low pressure on the front that I can see. One of them is now in southern Iowa, and a second one is due north of Emporia. It has warmed up to 78° in Emporia.  The front is just south of St. Joseph where the temperature just dropped to 59°, and snow is falling over western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas.

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The cold air will rush in tonight, and then there is a chance of snow by morning.  Let us know what you experience this afternoon and evening bloggers, and thank you for sharing in this exciting weather experience.  Try to call in and donate to the Pet Telethon tonight! It benefits a great cause, the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City.

Gary

Rain & Severe Potential Today

Pet

Good morning bloggers,

It is the morning of the Pet Telethon. Crystle Lampitt and I are hosting the 14th annual Kansas City Pet Telethon on 38 The Spot from 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM. That responsibility alone is a huge task on a Sunday. They have been preparing for this telethon for a year that benefits the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City. Hopefully some of you can call in and donate tonight. Will there be any severe weather as the Pet Telethon gets under way? The timing on the front appears to be a bit faster as the front is not that far away this morning:

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This surface map is from 7 AM this morning.

day1otlk_1300The Storm Prediction Center just reduced the risk from moderate to slight in areas to our south.  Here is an excerpt from the SPC:  ”Eastern Kansas to Central/Eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas this afternoon and tonight…The initial southern stream shortwave trough over the southern high plains will eject east northeastward over north Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas today reaching Missouri and Arkansas by early tonight as an upstream wave digs southeastward into the four corners. At the surface, the remnants of a lee cyclone ins southwest Kansas this morning will continue across northern Illinois to lower Michigan overnight. In the wake of the low a cold front will accelerate southeastward across Kansas into northern and western Oklahoma through the afternoon. Widespread clouds will disrupt surface heating and lapse rates aloft, aside from a narrow corridor along the cold from by early to mid-afternoon.”

The risk was reduced to slight because of some uncertainty on the conditions coming together for severe weather.  For Kansas City we will be monitoring the advancing cold front closely as it is on the move this morning.  As the front moves through thunderstorms will likely line up along and behind the frontal zone. Some severe weather may be produced with hail as the primary risk type.

Severe weather yesterday produced hail that looked like snow in Rockford, IL:

Hail

Heavy thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon and then move east tonight, and then we will look into two chances of snow. Yes, two chances! One later tonight and Monday, and another one later in the week.  Here is the first chance of snow as simulated by the NAM model that just came out. It is April 14th and it is very rare to have accumulating snow this late in the season, but it happened last year in May. We may be in a developing northeast to southwest band of snow early on Monday with accumulations possible mainly on grassy surfaces:

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We will update the blog early this afternoon.  Have a great Sunday.

Gary

Warming Up Today, Thunderstorms Sunday

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system will be approaching us tonight and Sunday.  The front is timed to move through Sunday afternoon and evening and there is still some question on the exact timing. Right now I favor a slightly faster solution which would bring the front through KC around 4:30 PM Sunday.  Here is one Powercast we showed last night:

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight north and west of Kansas City:

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A weak stationary front is setting up near the Kansas/Nebraska border extending northeast into Iowa. This will be north of our local area this evening so any thunderstorm development will likely be north and way out to the west. Later tonight any thunderstorms that form west of Kansas City may organize and move east arriving later tonight into early Sunday morning.  And, then we will be watching the strong cold front approaching on Sunday which will overtake the stationary boundary. The conditions will become more favorable for heavy thunderstorms and a few could be severe. The most likely area for severe weather on Sunday is way to the south.

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And, here is the probabilistic forecast:

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Here is the NAM model surface forecast from the 06z (1 AM) model run.  Notice the wind shift/cold front is forecast to push southeast to where I drew in the cold front. If this is the case, then the precipitation would be heaviest behind the frontal zone and the thunderstorms would lose their warm and moist inflow, but the leading edge of the coldest air is really very close to Kansas City at this time. So, there will likely be a corridor of very heavy rain and thunderstorms situated between these two boundaries which should place us in prime position for heavy rain, but limited chance of severe. This is why there is only a slight risk with us on the northern edge.

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Farther south the risk is moderate as a result of the front interacting more with the warm and moist air, but even down there there are some questions.

And, there is still some potential for some snow as the cold air rushes in. Let’s see how the models trend today.

Have a great day and we will try to update the blog later this afternoon or evening. Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

Timing Of The Front Is Critical

Good evening bloggers, and Happy Friday Night In The Big Town!

The timing of the cold front is varying from model run to model run, and this is a very important factor for where the heaviest rain from the thunderstorms will be located.  The new data is coming in late this afternoon and I am about to come on the air at 4 PM.  I will be showing this comparison on our weathercasts at 4, 5, and 6 PM.

  • Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, most likely from around I-70 and north
  • Thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning
  • Thunderstorms and rain are likely Sunday afternoon and evening. The timing of the front is critical because if the front moves through too early the heaviest rain may end up south and east of Kansas City.

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And, look at this one:

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The top one is the latest trend with the front blowing through Kansas City around 4 PM Sunday.

The latest NAM (00z or 7 PM model run) has the front slower again with a lot of rain. And, it also has snow Sunday night. A lot to go over tonight and Sunday.  Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town!

Gary

Another Complex Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

There is a lot to go over today and we will begin with our rainfall deficit:

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Rainfall is below average for the month, and below average for the year!

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At this time of the year you can either catch up on rainfall fast, or you can fall much farther below average rather quickly.  There is a good chance of some very heavy thunderstorms later this weekend:

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I am going to wait to finish this blog entry until later this morning after the new data comes in….

11 AM Update:

The new data is trickling in and the latest NAM has rain, sleet, and snow in the 36 hours from Sunday into Monday!  The GFS has a faster solution with no snow on the back side.  This model blows the front through around 4 PM Sunday with heavy thunderstorms and then the cold blast. So, it is three to six hours faster than the NAM model. The hang back wave that produces snow on the NAM model is not as organized on the GFS model. Which one is correct? Probably neither of them, but a combination of the two. Let’s see what the rest of the models show and I will be on at 4, 5, 6, and 10 PM on Friday Night In The Big Town with an in-depth weather forecast.

The 14th Annual Kansas City Pet Telethon is on 38 the Spot Sunday night at 6:30 PM.  Will we be in the middle of a line of thunderstorms at 6:30 PM Sunday? We will have around 100 dogs in the studio. Of all days, we don’t need a line of strong to severe thunderstorms at that hour but it seems to be timing out about then.  Maybe the cold front will blow through a bit earlier?  Anyway, if you can call in and donate it would really help the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City.  Stormy and Breezy were both adopted from the Humane Society of Greater KC!

Pet Telethon

Have a great day, and check back in for updates over the weekend.

Gary