Here are the high temps for today around the region. The hot air was sitting just to our East.
The late-day sunshine helped us rally, a-la the Royals, to get closer to the high. Still, the forecast I had from this morning was for 94 at KCI. Yesterday’s forecast was for it to be 97. We strive for accuracy and I feel we fell short today. Predicting the future is not easy, but that’s what people expect us to do. Now that all said, we had the high dewpoints and if you watched at 6p, you saw we had heat index readings around 95°-105°. So it at least FELT hot out there.
Storms pushed out and at this point, I do not see much potential for redevelopment. Still, I type that with caution because we’ve seen it before where a little activity gets going around 10/11p when the low-level jet kicks in. I’m camping out at the station tonight, so I’ll be watching it.
Here’s the good news for Sunday: LESS HUMIDITY! I’m still expecting it to be warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s, but I’m telling you what, it is going to feel so much nicer just because we’ll drop about 20° of the dewpoints. Many will be happy about that.
Hang on….wait a minute…. there is some hope that our temps will get closer to the forecast high.
Clouds have RAPIDLY cleared out. Given the July sunshine, we may quickly warm to near 90 over the next couple hours. This may also open the window for evening storms. Notice the storm ongoing in SE Nebraska, near the Omaha area.
WOW. Just saw the newest severe outlook from the SPC. Today seems to have been a tricky day for them. KC is now out of the “Slight Risk” category and they have scrubbed the “Moderate Risk” from Illinois and Indiana. I have not seen so much back and forth forecasting in a 24-hour window. In my opinion, this makes it VERY confusing for the public.
Spotty showers and a couple thunderstorms continue to move to the East this afternoon. Not seeing signs of severe weather at all. But do not be surprised to hear a random clap of thunder.
Outside of that, we have to talk about the temperatures. Look at the readings from the 3p hour:
What this means is the forecast for today was a dud. Completely missed by everyone. We will not get the upper 90s, we will not get the heat index readings in the 100s. Why? The clouds. All of this from a weak little wiggle that produced rain overnight in Central Kansas. It kept trucking to the East along I-70 and covered up the Metro area all morning/afternoon.
You can clearly see the lack of clouds across portions of Kansas and down through Oklahoma/Texas, which is why they are burning up with triple-digit heat.
I am always one of the first to say “hey, we got it right”, but my the same token I have to be one of the first to say “hey, we missed it”. Today is one of those days. And it’s not like we were the only ones; as far as I can tell, the entire weather community missed the forecast for KC today. That all said, *I* am not complaining that it didn’t hit 90-some degrees! I’m sure many others will say the same.
So where do we go from here? For me, I want to learn from this. I want to see what went wrong. Given my schedule the last two days, I was unable to look at all the forecast model info that I usually do. Perhaps there was a clue that we missed. Maybe there was some subtle sign last night that would have told us this would happen. I can tell you that when I walked in at 2am this morning, from the data I checked out, I was worried about our forecast. But sometimes you learn to “stay the course”. Often in weather, making a knee-jerk reaction will cost you in the end. Every so often, staying the course will cost you as well.
The other bit of good news out of this, is because we lacked the sunshine and the heat, our chances for severe weather are very low. This goes back to why I was befuddled when the SPC put us back in the “slight risk”. As soon as they removed us this morning, that’s when I thought “Ah, the clouds… we’re not going to heat up today so we’re not going to get the storms”. Then when they put us back in I was scratching my head. Perhaps they were thinking sunshine would break back out. And it still might. Reference that satellite picture again…. there is a hole in the clouds over the St. Joseph to Chillicothe area. Could this spark some storms still this evening? There is a chance.
Well talk about a strange flip-flop. I awoke from a midday nap to find the SPC has put the KC Metro area *back* in the Slight Risk category. Given the cloud cover and the spotty showers we have out this, these is a very odd call.
The activity out there now does not pose a severe threat at all and is moving to the East. There are some heavier showers on the far South side of the City, but no lightning showing up with these so they are not even thunderstorms.
I am back at the station and will be here all the way through our morning show tomorrow. Should anything bigger develop, I will let you know.
Seeing some new activity on the radar in the form of sprinkles and showers. A few small thunderstorms trying to get going as well. Not expecting severe weather but stay alert to isolated storms that may pop-up and pass over your area.
The SPC has modified their Severe Outlook for today. Notice the change? As mentioned, today is highly conditional. And with the clouds we have in place this morning, severe weather may not materialize. That said, we could still see a few showers and even some small storms in the area today.
6:30a Original Post
If we can just make it through today…. that’s all you have to say to yourself if you’re not a fan of the heat. When it comes to temperatures, it won’t be too much different than Friday.
As a cold front moves in, we’ll lop about 10 degrees off the highs for Sunday and then by Monday, it will feel almost like Fall again: highs in the 70s.
Speaking of that cold front, we will have to keep eyes on it as it slides through today because it could spark off some thunderstorms this evening. Given the heat and the high dewpoints, we’ll have plenty of “juice” in the atmosphere. We’ve been in a “slight risk” from the SPC for a few days, but they continue to adjust the bullseye farther East.
Looking at the latest info this morning, the RPM is suggesting a line of storms tries to roll over KC tonight after about 8p. I just looked at the latest HRRR model as well and it is showing hints of isolated t-storms in the area around the same time. **ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL**.
We have seen this setup before where there is plenty of fuel in place but nothing happens. This goes back to the “cap” in the atmosphere. If the inversion is strong enough, the lid will not blow and storms won’t form. The best tool we’ll have to monitor the cap today will be the visible satellite picture. If we start seeing cumulus clouds with over-shooting tops, that’s a sign the cap is breaking.
Should storms form, my greatest concern would be downburst winds. Given the heat, air will be lofted high into the atmosphere and then as the storms form and dissipate, the air lofted up will quickly come crashing back down and once it hits the surface it will spread out quickly causing high wind gusts.
Prior to any of this, we’ll have a chance for sprinkles and showers around the lunch hours (between 10a and 1p). There may even be a small t-storms or two, but not expecting severe weather in the early afternoon.
I’m in the office all weekend long, morning and night, so I’ll keep my red eyes on everything.
When it comes to the heat, be safe today and drink plenty of water. This would be a great day to find a pool. If you’re taking in any outdoor events, find shade and have water handy. A heat advisory is in place until 8pm tonight.
As a housekeeping note:
I hope this is the only time I have to type this. The comments section needs to be kept friendly and professional. I encourage you to maintain respect for others while engaging in discussions and conversations. If it’s something you wouldn’t say to the face of your boss or mother, don’t post it here. Name-calling, accusations, direct attacks, etc will not be tolerated on my blog entries. If you want to take someone to task or call them out, do it elsewhere please. The constant attacks and slamming of others in the comments is getting old and I personally feel it’s driving others away.
This should be a place to openly, freely discuss the weather and ask questions in order to learn. Spouting off personal forecasts or challenging each other in negative ways does not help anyone. Please, folks, be kind. It’s okay to disagree; it’s okay to have a different opinion. But let’s be civil about it.
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