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Rain Misses Us

Morning Bloggers!

Here is a screen shot of ESP Live as of 8:30 AM:

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At least some of our viewing area is getting rain from Junction City, KS to Garnett, KS where there is a line of light to moderate rainfall.  Most of the rain will be in Oklahoma today and this will impact their temperatures.  Tulsa’s high temperature today is 74° which is 20 degrees below average.  They should be warming up to 94°, but because of the clouds and rain they will stay much cooler.

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Nothing is new here weather wise…just dry.  As we talked about yesterday in the blog, we will just have to hold out until next week when the pattern changes.

Have a great day!

Broken Record

Good Morning Bloggers!

I’m about to sound like a broken record for the next week.  Very quiet and boring pattern with the neighbors to the southwest getting a nice soaking of rain tomorrow.  Look at the Day 1-3 QPF from the Weather Prediction Center!!!

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It is very sad to have the rain that close, but get NOTHING!  The stationary boundary is set up too far to the south for us to get any of this rain. We will stay under the influence of the eastern trough for the next several days, but looks like the ridge off to the west will nudge our way by next week and this means warming back up.

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Have a great day!

Kalee Dionne

Fall-like Weather Returns

Good Morning Bloggers!

I hope you had a wonderful weekend.  It was REALLY nice yesterday with high temperatures staying in the upper 80s.  Well, today is even better with temperatures staying in the lower 80s.  We are starting off in the lower 60s, but a few spots including Kansas City dropped to 59° this morning.  As of 8 AM, temperatures are 10° to 15° cooler than where they were at 8 AM Sunday.

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The cooler trend will continue into the afternoon as the jet stream stays dipped well to the south near the Gulf Coast.  JD showed this yesterday, but I’m going to post it again because it paints a good picture of the jet stream allowing the much cooler air to dig into the southeastern states.

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The desert southwest stays hot with a ridge of high pressure building, but it will stay west of us through the entire week.  So, spots like Chicago, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Detroit will be well below average for late July. The below average temperatures will be as far south as Little Rock, Arkansas.

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This summer has been great in regards to temperatures!  We have seen several weeks of below average temperatures, but if you look at what it was like on July 28th last year it was COOLER!!

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We love the cooler temperatures, but one thing we are lacking is rain and we need that bad.  We are starting to dip to 4″ to 5″ of rain below average for the year.  We have a couple of chances of rain this week with the northwest flow riding the ridge to the west.  Unfortunately most of the measurable rainfall will stay off to the southwest through mid-week.  After looking at the Weather Prediction Center’s QPF, we need to keep the sprinklers going through the week.

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Hope you enjoy the beautiful weather this week and let’s hope for rain soon.

Kalee Dionne

Dew points make the difference

What a difference a 20° drop in the dew point makes, huh? This morning when I was on the air, our dew points were in the 70s.
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Now, here at 4:00 in the afternoon, these are the dew point values:
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If you’ve been outside at all, you can tell a big difference. Despite the fact our temps are in the middle 80s right now, it just *feels* so much cooler out there. Down to our South, in portions of Southern Kansas, they wound up 20-plus degrees cooler today thanks to rain.
The rain and clouds are now pushing into Oklahoma, helping to cool them down.
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Southern Kansas and Oklahoma were in the triples yesterday, now today in the middle 80s. The advancing cold front has helped to generate the rain and usher in that nicer air. This was the surface map from the HPC earlier this afternoon.
HPCSFC
You can see the big area of High pressure in the Northern Plains and Southern Canada. If you look closely at the map, you can see temperatures up there are in the 60s….at the end of July! Incredible.

This trend of cooler air advancing South will continue for a few more days. So what’s the deal? Another big dip in the jet stream.
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By tomorrow, a large “trough” (as we call it) will sit over the MidWest area, even reaching down into parts of the South. Meanwhile, a high amplitude ridge will reside over the Western portion of the United States. Those who live in that area are going to roast. Areas like Spokane, Washington will see highs this week near 99°. They average temperature there for this time of year is 86°.
Meanwhile, to the East, in place like Detroit where the typical high this time of year is 83°, they will enjoy temperatures in the low 70s for the next few days.

Going all the way into Wednesday, I do not see much change in the pattern:
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Notice the jet gets a bit closer to the area by Wednesday. This could open the door for a few showers and t-storms. But once again, we’ve seen this before; recall a couple weeks ago. At this time I’m not terribly optimistic for meaningful rain/storms, just based on the models. But if the overall pattern does repeat, there could be meaningful rain VERY close to the area on Wednesday.

My reward for working the marathon shift this week is that I get three days off. And I tell you what, these next three days are going to be great to get outside.

-JD

Summer goes on vacation — again.

Waking up this morning, it’s still a little humid outside. I have yet to see the outdoors since about 1p Saturday, but the production crew that just arrived tells me it still feels sticky out there. Our dewpoints are high still this morning (as of 6am):
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Going through the day, we’ll continue to pull in drier–and nicer–air from the North. Middle 80s should do it for highs in the KC area, but the more North you live, the cooler it will be today.
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If you have anything going on outside today, such as a wedding/party/sporting event, it shouldn’t be too bad. I’ll go ahead and call this a green light day, since the humidity will be dropping and the temperatures won’t be too warm.
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Speaking of sporting events, the Royals will take the mound a little after 1pm this afternoon. Unlike yesterday, where it felt like a dog breathing in your face, today will be much more tolerable. Actually, a pretty good day for a baseball game.
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Let’s just hope the Royals do not follow our weather pattern and cool down! They are doing very well these last couple of games.

Enjoy the afternoon and I will see you on TV between 7am and 9am this morning.
-JD

The Summer Sizzle will fizzle by Sunday

8p Update
Here are the high temps for today around the region. The hot air was sitting just to our East.
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The late-day sunshine helped us rally, a-la the Royals, to get closer to the high. Still, the forecast I had from this morning was for 94 at KCI. Yesterday’s forecast was for it to be 97. We strive for accuracy and I feel we fell short today. Predicting the future is not easy, but that’s what people expect us to do. Now that all said, we had the high dewpoints and if you watched at 6p, you saw we had heat index readings around 95°-105°. So it at least FELT hot out there.

Storms pushed out and at this point, I do not see much potential for redevelopment. Still, I type that with caution because we’ve seen it before where a little activity gets going around 10/11p when the low-level jet kicks in. I’m camping out at the station tonight, so I’ll be watching it.

Here’s the good news for Sunday: LESS HUMIDITY! I’m still expecting it to be warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s, but I’m telling you what, it is going to feel so much nicer just because we’ll drop about 20° of the dewpoints. Many will be happy about that.

4:35p Update
Hang on….wait a minute…. there is some hope that our temps will get closer to the forecast high.
Clouds have RAPIDLY cleared out. Given the July sunshine, we may quickly warm to near 90 over the next couple hours. This may also open the window for evening storms. Notice the storm ongoing in SE Nebraska, near the Omaha area.
VisSat

4:05p Update
WOW. Just saw the newest severe outlook from the SPC. Today seems to have been a tricky day for them. KC is now out of the “Slight Risk” category and they have scrubbed the “Moderate Risk” from Illinois and Indiana. I have not seen so much back and forth forecasting in a 24-hour window. In my opinion, this makes it VERY confusing for the public.
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3:50p Update
Spotty showers and a couple thunderstorms continue to move to the East this afternoon. Not seeing signs of severe weather at all. But do not be surprised to hear a random clap of thunder.
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Outside of that, we have to talk about the temperatures. Look at the readings from the 3p hour:
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What this means is the forecast for today was a dud. Completely missed by everyone. We will not get the upper 90s, we will not get the heat index readings in the 100s. Why? The clouds. All of this from a weak little wiggle that produced rain overnight in Central Kansas. It kept trucking to the East along I-70 and covered up the Metro area all morning/afternoon.
VisSat

You can clearly see the lack of clouds across portions of Kansas and down through Oklahoma/Texas, which is why they are burning up with triple-digit heat.

I am always one of the first to say “hey, we got it right”, but my the same token I have to be one of the first to say “hey, we missed it”. Today is one of those days. And it’s not like we were the only ones; as far as I can tell, the entire weather community missed the forecast for KC today. That all said, *I* am not complaining that it didn’t hit 90-some degrees! I’m sure many others will say the same.

So where do we go from here? For me, I want to learn from this. I want to see what went wrong. Given my schedule the last two days, I was unable to look at all the forecast model info that I usually do. Perhaps there was a clue that we missed. Maybe there was some subtle sign last night that would have told us this would happen. I can tell you that when I walked in at 2am this morning, from the data I checked out, I was worried about our forecast. But sometimes you learn to “stay the course”. Often in weather, making a knee-jerk reaction will cost you in the end. Every so often, staying the course will cost you as well.

The other bit of good news out of this, is because we lacked the sunshine and the heat, our chances for severe weather are very low. This goes back to why I was befuddled when the SPC put us back in the “slight risk”. As soon as they removed us this morning, that’s when I thought “Ah, the clouds… we’re not going to heat up today so we’re not going to get the storms”. Then when they put us back in I was scratching my head. Perhaps they were thinking sunshine would break back out.  And it still might. Reference that satellite picture again…. there is a hole in the clouds over the St. Joseph to Chillicothe area. Could this spark some storms still this evening? There is a chance.

2:30p Update
Well talk about a strange flip-flop. I awoke from a midday nap to find the SPC has put the KC Metro area *back* in the Slight Risk category. Given the cloud cover and the spotty showers we have out this, these is a very odd call.
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The activity out there now does not pose a severe threat at all and is moving to the East. There are some heavier showers on the far South side of the City, but no lightning showing up with these so they are not even thunderstorms.
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I am back at the station and will be here all the way through our morning show tomorrow. Should anything bigger develop, I will let you know.

10:05am Update
Seeing some new activity on the radar in the form of sprinkles and showers. A few small thunderstorms trying to get going as well. Not expecting severe weather but stay alert to isolated storms that may pop-up and pass over your area.
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8:30am Update
The SPC has modified their Severe Outlook for today. Notice the change? As mentioned, today is highly conditional. And with the clouds we have in place this morning, severe weather may not materialize. That said, we could still see a few showers and even some small storms in the area today.
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6:30a Original Post
If we can just make it through today…. that’s all you have to say to yourself if you’re not a fan of the heat. When it comes to temperatures, it won’t be too much different than Friday.
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As a cold front moves in, we’ll lop about 10 degrees off the highs for Sunday and then by Monday, it will feel almost like Fall again: highs in the 70s.
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Speaking of that cold front, we will  have to keep eyes on it as it slides through today because it could spark off some thunderstorms this evening. Given the heat and the high dewpoints, we’ll have plenty of “juice” in the atmosphere. We’ve been in a “slight risk” from the SPC for a few days, but they continue to adjust the bullseye farther East.
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Looking at the latest info this morning, the RPM is suggesting a line of storms tries to roll over KC tonight after about 8p. I just looked at the latest HRRR model as well and it is showing hints of isolated t-storms in the area around the same time. **ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL**.
We have seen this setup before where there is plenty of fuel in place but nothing happens. This goes back to the “cap” in the atmosphere. If the inversion is strong enough, the lid will not blow and storms won’t form. The best tool we’ll have to monitor the cap today will be the visible satellite picture. If we start seeing cumulus clouds with over-shooting tops, that’s a sign the cap is breaking.
Should storms form, my greatest concern would be downburst winds. Given the heat, air will be lofted high into the atmosphere and then as the storms form and dissipate, the air lofted up will quickly come crashing back down and once it hits the surface it will spread out quickly causing high wind gusts.
Prior to any of this, we’ll have a chance for sprinkles and showers around the lunch hours (between 10a and 1p). There may even be a small t-storms or two, but not expecting severe weather in the early afternoon.

I’m in the office all weekend long, morning and night, so I’ll keep my red eyes on everything.

When it comes to the heat, be safe today and drink plenty of water. This would be a great day to find a pool. If you’re taking in any outdoor events, find shade and have water handy. A heat advisory is in place until 8pm tonight.
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As a housekeeping note: 
I hope this is the only time I have to type this. The comments section needs to be kept friendly and professional. I encourage you to maintain respect for others while engaging in discussions and conversations. If it’s something you wouldn’t say to the face of your boss or mother, don’t post it here. Name-calling, accusations, direct attacks, etc will not be tolerated on my blog entries. If you want to take someone to task or call them out, do it elsewhere please. The constant attacks and slamming of others in the comments is getting old and I personally feel it’s driving others away.
This should be a place to openly, freely discuss the weather and ask questions in order to learn. Spouting off personal forecasts or challenging each other in negative ways does not help anyone. Please, folks, be kind. It’s okay to disagree; it’s okay to have a different opinion. But let’s be civil about it.

-JD

Friday early AM update

We are still on track to heat up this afternoon, however we have dropped the temperature for today. We’ve pulled it down to 98°. But again, that’s not the full story. There is a heat advisory in place for the area.
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This is because surface temperatures will combine with high dewpoints (in the 70s) making it feel more like 100° to 110° in some areas. This is dangerous heat and anyone outside will need to take precautions to avoid heat exhaustion.
I do not expect the heat to really break on Saturday either. A cold front will linger to our North but may not pass through the area until that night. So prepare for another scorcher.
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Plans to be outside this evening? We have several events going on, including Royals baseball and Starlight theatre. You can bank on it being sweaty. Royals take the mound at 7:10p, and heat index values may still be around 100°.
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At 8p, Starlight Theatre will raise the curtain on The Sound of Music. I still expect it to be hot during the first act, then slowing easing up on temperatures by the final act.

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As the warm front moves through this morning, we could see a couple of showers in Northern and Eastern Missouri. It won’t amount to much and I don’t think it will impact the KC area. But don’t be surprised to see some light activity on the radar.
There is still a small chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon with that front lurking to our North. At this time, my gut feeling says that given the heat, we’ll have a major “cap” in place (or an invisible lid in the atmosphere) helping to limit our chances for storms. That said, we may have plenty of energy in place, so *if* the cap weakens and storms form, they could take off rapidly. My biggest concern would be downburst winds from the storms, given the heat.
As of right now, we have a 20% chance of storms in the forecast. This also means we’re saying there is an 80% chance it will not rain/storm. Keep that in mind.

Be safe during this heat today and tomorrow; drink plenty of WATER and find shade when you can.
-JD

Putting the “fry” in Friday

You think it’s been hot this summer? You haven’t felt anything yet.

As we go into Friday, a warm front is set to move across the area. This will swing the winds to the South/Southwest and increase to around 10-20mph. We will be in the perfect setup to see highs temperatures soar. By now, you’ve probably heard what we’re thinking: 100°.
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Toss in the higher dewpoints and we’ll have heat index values near 105° to 110° in the afternoon. We’re going to fry. And it will probably seem extra hot because we’ve been a little spoiled this summer.
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July is supposed to be a hot month. So far this year, we’ve only had four days above 90°. Last July, we had nine days and the July before that, 29 days. A big change for sure. And when it comes to the 100° forecast for Friday, we have not been that hot since September of last year.
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Needless to say, if you work outside, Friday is a day to make sure you take plenty of breaks, drink a good amount of water, and check on the pets. Being out in 100° with a fur coat is no fun. And it’s sad we have to mention this, but DO NOT leave children or pets in a vehicle. It’s life-threatening.

So switch gears, the Royals return home tonight. This should be a great night for a baseball game:
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Now that said, if you’re going to the game Friday night, it will be a much different story. The game will likely start out with temps in the upper 90s and stay pretty steamy throughout the game. Use caution if attending Friday’s game.

By next week, we get a break in the heat. The jetstream takes a dip again and this will force the hot air back to the SW part of the country (where it’s been baking for days) and open the door for us to cool back down.
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On another weather story today, a possible tornado hit the Cherrystone campground in Northhapton, Virginia earlier this morning. A large tree fell on a tent and many RVs were flipped. The local fire department reports three people have died due to this storm and more than a dozen people injured. At this time, the NWS has not done their assessment so they cannot confirm a tornado touchdown. It’s possible this may have been straight-line wind damage. This is a developing weather & news story that we will continue to follow. Look for more updates on our newscasts today.

Photo via: WWBT-TV and shot by Joe Buttner

80 Degree Dew Point Watch

Good evening bloggers,

8:20 PM Update:

I am not sure if I have ever experienced this before, but the dew point is now right around 80 degrees and there wasn’t a cloud in sight when I was writing this.  The part I don’t believe I have experienced is the fact that there wasn’t one cloud and there is a cold front right over the city.  Thunderstorms have formed southeast of Kirksville. Let’s watch radar closely.  Here are the dew points as of 8 PM:

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Previous entry below:

There is a weak cold front approaching, with a stronger cold front due in around Sunday.  A few showers and thunderstorms should form near the frontal zone later this evening, but the atmosphere seems capped a bit once again. It may be closer to sunset or after before the thunderstorms develop.  It would be nice for the lawn to get a nice drink, but right now the chance is just 30%.  The dew point as of 5 PM reached 76°.  The temperature just reached the forecast high of 99° downtown, and it is approaching the forecast high of 97° at KCI Airport, although we may fall a degree short.  Here are the temperatures as of 5 PM:

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With the dew points approaching that elusive 80° level this humidity is combining with the heat to create high heat index values:

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You may be able to make out that very thin line on radar as of 5:30 PM.  These small cells have yet to break through the cap, but if they do then there will be a chance of a few microbursts this evening with all of the heat ahead of the front:

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Have a great evening. We will be monitoring this closely on 41 Action News.

Gary

 

The Hottest Day of the Year

Good morning Bloggers,

We have seen five days this year with a temperature of 90 degrees and above and this includes yesterday’s daytime high temperature of 92°.  Today will likely be the hottest day of the year with a daytime high of 97°, but it could feel 10 degrees hotter.

We have a Heat Advisory in place until 7 p.m this evening.  Highs will reach the upper 90s but heat index values will range from the 105° to 115°.

HEAT ADVISORY

It will be humid and breezy with a southwest wind between 10 to 20 miles per hour.

Please remember to check on small children, elderly, anyone susceptible to the heat and pets.  Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, wear loose-fitting clothing, light colored clothing, and go to A/C spots when you can.

There is a chance for severe weather this evening mainly for areas north and along I-70. Main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado threat will stay across NE Missouri.

SLIGHT RISK TUESDAY

 

This is all ahead of cold front that will move through later this evening.

COLD FRONT

After the cold front moves through, cooler air will move in and it will not be as hot for Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs for Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Stay cool,

Michelle

www.twitter.com/MichelleApon