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Thunderstorms forming again on Labor Day Night

Good evening bloggers,

Thunderstorms are forming again as an MCS develops over Kansas tonight. Here is a look at radar at 8:50 PM:

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This system will be long past by morning, and then we can look ahead to a warm front lifting northward Tuesday night. This will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms.

Gary

Labor Day Forecast

Good Morning Bloggers!

Wow…Loud thunderstorms last night and much needed rainfall for our area.  The rain is gone now with most moving southeast of Clinton, MO to Sedalia, MO.

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So, if you are just getting up and get to enjoy the day off here is what it looks like now that the rain has passed. We still have some clouds, but those will start to break up a bit over the next few hours.

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I know many of you are probably wondering about the rainfall totals around the area, so I’m going to post them right here.  This is as of 7:30 AM:

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The good news here is the storms that moved through last night helped stabilize the atmosphere, so the KC Metro area is done with the storms.  Now there is a chance of more storms for southeast of KC.   The timeline for those spots looks like after lunch through about 6 pm.

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So, the thunderstorms last night have wiped out the chance for severe weather for Kansas City.  The slight risk has been pushed farther to the southeast.

 

Kalee Dionne

Sunday Night Update

Good Sunday evening bloggers,

The thunderstorms area heading this way.  They have formed along a cold front and are now marching through central Kansas.  They are timed to arrive at the state line between 1130 PM and 1230 AM.  There are signs that this could evolve into more of a flash flooding situation over a damaging wind event.

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There are not many severe thunderstorm warnings at this time.  We will still have to watch this, but there are signs that the northern end of the line will push across northern Missouri, while the southern end of the line becomes more west to east and track near I-70.  If this happens, some dry areas could see some nice rain.  This is not set in stone, so we will watch it.

Here are the latest watches and warnings.  The yellow boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings.  There have been 50-60 mph wind gusts and some large hail.  A few spots earlier had 60-70 mph winds.

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Have a good night.

Jeff

A Loud Late Sunday Night?

Good Sunday bloggers,

The weather will get interesting around here tonight and Labor day as a cold front associated with strong upper flow aloft moves across the Plains and Midwest.

We are on the southeast edge of a slight risk of severe weather today as we expect big thunderstorms to form later this afternoon and evening from central Nebraska to northwest Kansas.  We are on the edge as our best chance of the thunderstorms is at the end of the day 1 period.

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Today we will be well east of the cold front and so our rain chance is low.  We will see an increasing south wind as temperatures rise to around 90°.  There is a lead disturbance across central Kansas that is now producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This disturbance will move over head this afternoon, so we will likely have a period of clouds and perhaps a few showers noon to 4 PM, but this is not the main show.

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Then later this afternoon and evening we will see thunderstorms erupt across central Nebraska to northwest Kansas.  Initially some of the thunderstorms will have the chance of producing tornadoes, especially in Nebraska.

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The Royals game tonight starts at 7:07 PM and Gary is throwing out the first pitch and it is nationally televised, so we want the rain to hold off until after the game.  It is going be a close call, so no extra innings!  Can the Royals just win in nine?

Here is the map for 11 PM.  You can see the thunderstorms are getting close.  The light green ahead of the main area may be the modelling of an outflow boundary, interesting.

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The best chance for thunderstorms around here will be after midnight.  This model has them arriving midnight to 2 AM.  The main severe threat from these thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts to over 60 mph.  Also, and hopefully, the dry areas south of I-70 will see .50″ to 2″ of rain.

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By Labor day morning the round of thunderstorms will likely have pushed off to the south and east.  But, notice that the main cold front has not moved through.

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We will be watching for the chance of new thunderstorms to form along the cold front Labor day afternoon as it moves through.  If the thunderstorms tonight are bigger and more widespread, that is, forming into a larger complex, then the chance of rain tomorrow will have a better chance of being pushed to the south.  We will not know about this until Monday morning.

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Here is our latest thinking on the time lines for today and Labor day.

TODAY:

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LABOR DAY:

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Have a great and safe rest of your Labor day weekend.

Jeff

 

 

 

One Main Holiday Weekend Rain Chance

Good Saturday morning bloggers, We had scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday as a weak system and front moved by.  Today the front will be drifting by I-44.  So, that is where the chance of thunderstorms will be located today.  Our weather will be nice with highs in the mid 80s.

MAP 1 : SATURDAY AFTERNOON

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Tonight will be calm and mild with a low around 70°.  Sunday will be a decent day as well with highs warming to near 90° and an increasing south breeze.  There is just a 10% chance for a brief morning shower, but our attention turns to the western Plains where a cold front will be moving in. This front will be generating some big thunderstorms across northwest Kansas and western Nebraska during the later afternoon.

MAP 2: SUNDAY AFTERNOON

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MAP 3: SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT

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There is a slight risk of severe weather across much of the Plains with our area on the eastern edge.  The big thunderstorms will congeal into a line across central Nebraska down to central Kansas Sunday evening.  This line will march east into our region after midnight Sunday into early Monday.  There are signs the south part of the line will weaken before it arrives, leaving the best thunderstorm chances, where they do not need rain, across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.  We will have to see if this line stays together to south of I-70 or reforms early Monday farther south.  It is areas south of I-70 that need more rain.

MAP 4: EARLY MONDAY.  WILL THE THUNDERSTORMS FORM FURTHER SOUTH OR MAINTAIN FROM KANSAS?  THIS MODEL SAYS NO. THERE IS A 50-50 SHOT OF A NICE LABOR DAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF I-70.

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MAP 5: SUNDAY TIME LINE.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER, BUT RAIN CHANCES WAIT UNTIL AFTER 10 PM

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MAP 6: LABOR DAY TIME LINE

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Have a happy and safe Labor day weekend.  Do not drink and drive/boat.

Jeff Penner

Evening thunderstorms

Good late Friday evening bloggers,

The thunderstorms are weakening at 8:41 PM, and the south side gets missed again.  It looks like a few of you had some very heavy rain from these thunderstorms.

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Have a great evening!

Gary

Rain chances through the holiday weekend

As we go through the next few days, we have chances for rain. Some may have “heard” that it’s going to rain all day and be a washout. Not true at all. While we do have chances for showers and a few thunderstorms here and there, it will *NOT* be a washout weekend.

This morning we are already seeing a line of showers take shape on radar
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That line is traveling to the East and I expect it to arrive in the Western part of the Metro by about 10am. There are indications the activity will weaken a bit (surprise, surprise) as it gets closer. Still, we have a shot at showers through the middle afternoon.
Most of this should be gone by later this evening. I know there are MANY events going on tonight (high school football, Royals, Sporting KC). While I think most of us in KC will dry out, showers may linger near the city through the evening. If there is enough heat generated from clouds breaking this afternoon, we could even see a few t-storms. I’ve accounted for this chance in my outlooks for any sporting events starting around 7p. However I do believe whatever is out there will disappear soon after the sun goes down.

Turning our attention to the long holiday weekend, here is how I see the rain chances stacking up:
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Does this mean everyone, everywhere will see rain? Not at all. I believe there will be some areas that will get left out or will only see a few sprinkles at most. It is difficult to say what areas/towns those will be (nobody has that kind of skill. If they *say* they do, get both hands on your wallet because they’ll take that next). We can look at forecast models all day long, but they are never 100% correct when it comes to geographic placement. This is why we use percent chances and use words like “slight”, “good” and “likely” to convey our thoughts on rainfall.
Kansas City has a good chance at rain today, but more in the slight category for Saturday. The chance for Sunday goes up, but I think it’s not until late Sunday into Monday. The reason why is a cold front will sweep through the area:
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The Storm Prediction Center has already outlooked Sunday as having a risk of severe weather.
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Now that said–and I do not mean to personally knock against any of the great meteorologists at the SPC–but they have had some strikeouts this season. Namely the last THREE times they issued a slight risk outlook for our area. Each time they issued it days in advance and by the day of the event, they pulled it because conditions did not support severe weather.
Given what I have seen, I think there will be some active weather, but I believe it will be more in Iowa and Southern Minnesota, closer to the triple-point and the center of the low pressure system that will be tracking across the area. Nonetheless, we will continue to watch all of this and give updates as you go into the holiday weekend.
My gut say: the SPC will revise their forecast a couple of times and likely flirt with our area in their severe outlook. But if it’s totally dropped by Sunday, I would not be surprised at all.

Switching gears, let’s talk about rainfall over the last seven days. All the of the “good” rain has missed us *just* to the North and Northwest. Here is an image I grabbed via NOAA yesterday. This is rainfall from last Thursday through yesterday (Thursday):
7days rain

Those areas in blue around Omaha are 10+ inches of rainfall! It’s amazing. Whereas in Kansas city, it’s been tough to get over a half inch of rainfall. Does this remind you of anything? For me, I think about the winter months when all the snow was just missing KC.
Hopefully we can get some rain in here over the next few days. It’s a bummer for those that might be camping or have outdoor plans, but once again: it will not be a washout weekend with rain every hour of every day.

The team will be tracking everything all weekend. I am lucky enough to be cashing in on my vacation time and will be away from the station until next Thursday. I hope all of you have a great Labor Day and here’s to hoping you get the weather of your choice in your backyard this weekend.

-JD

Accurate Summer Weather Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

As August comes to a close this weekend there is a weakening storm system approaching. There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms forming during the day with the chance of wide spread heavy rainfall once again being quite low. This has been the theme of this entire year as we have been in touch with the cycling weather pattern called the LRC.

Accurate Summer Weather Forecast:

On May 19th, 102 days ago, we issued our weather forecast based on our knowledge of this cycling weather pattern.  In this past year Weather2020 has been incredibly accurate on weather forecasts from 1 day to 0ver 250 days into the future. This has been unheard of in meteorology until now.  Let’s do a summer weather forecast accuracy check which I can’t find even one error as of this writing.

Here is the link to the summer forecast story and video. Take a look as we challenge you to find even one inaccuracy in this summer forecast:  Accurate Summer Weather Forecast Video & Story

  • Average rainfall forecast for the summer:  This was almost exactly right for the Kansas City metro area.  13.57″ is average. KCI Airport had 14.71″, Johnson County Executive Airport in Olathe had 13.22″
  • Low Chance Of A Major Heat Waves with only two to four stretches of 2-4 days between 95-100:  1.  August 23-25, this three day stretch was the only three day stretch of 95° or higher this summer.
  • Bumper Corn Crop:  The forecast of corn as high as your eye by the Fourth of July was spot on!
  • Zone of very wet weather just northeast of Kansas city!
  • Frequent cold fronts:  These have been moving through all summer long
  • “We should get enough rain to avoid going into the drought”:  The drought has been shrinking all summer long

This accurate summer forecast was based on the LRC.  Now, if we can just forecast rain the next day accurately. This is again a tough task for today. I just took this picture:

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Rain and thunderstorm complexes have been numerous and all over the plains as this storm system approached the past two days, but they have avoided Kansas City.  This morning we are seeing some building cumulus clouds, but very few showers.  Weak disturbances are rotating around the main upper level disturbance and there will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms today.  We will be tracking this possibility on 41 Action News today and tonight.

We are forecasting a chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm for the Friday Night football games and the Royals game, but there will not be any rainouts tonight.  It just won’t last that long.  Have a great Friday!

Gary

And, it happened again!

Good morning bloggers,

Another large area of rain is missing most of our area once again.  It’s like the same thing keeps happening over and over again.  Of course it is the same thing, as we continue to cycle through the same weather pattern. Fortunately a new weather pattern will be evolving in the next four to six weeks.  There is a good chance of rain and thunderstorms coming up, however. In this weather pattern it has always come through with just enough rain right when it seems we are going to really dry out. We are forecasting a good chance of rain and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night as a storm approaches, and then again Sunday night, with a chance of severe weather Sunday night.

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As you can see above, the latest morning rain event is just west and northwest of Kansas City.  And, below is a satellite picture from yesterday showing Cristobal, Marie, a disturbance in the Gulf, and a storm over the Rocky Mountains. This storm over the Rocky’s is heading our way, but will we always be in the wrong spot for the rain?

2014 Hurricane Cristobal and disturbance2 Satellite

Weather2020 made an incredible weather forecast for this part of the weather pattern to return in late August into early September. Using the LRC Weather2020 used knowledge of the cycling weather pattern to forecast these hurricanes over 50 days ago, and also the potential for severe weather to arrive around September 1st. The potential for severe weather Sunday night into Monday is there, but most likely just north of Kansas City across Iowa and Nebraska, but we will have to watch it closely. I blogged about the cycling weather pattern on the Weather2020.com site.

Here is one of the maps we used to forecast the return of these tropical systems, right on schedule:

LRC Cycle 5 July 2 PlottedYou can click on this map for a larger view. Yewtrees wanted me to post a map of the forecast Weather2020 made.  An alert was sent out on July 1st, and then this map was plotted to show the potential return of Arthur, and other potential systems that get caught within the cycling LRC pattern.

How about our Kansas City Royals! The past two days have been two of the more dramatic games. Now, will it rain Friday night or Sunday night? I am honored to have been chosen to throw out the first pitch Sunday night. Should I practice? I get one throw.  Have a great day. We will have your most accurate forecast today and tonight on 41 Action News.

More Thunderstorms Miss KC

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Well it is another day this summer with heavy thunderstorms not in KC, but just 20-100 miles north and northwest.  Some days they are south and east. Right now the weather pattern is set up for thunderstorms to form in the western Plains then turn east and northeast into Nebraska, northern Kansas and Iowa to northern Missouri as there was a decent stalled summer cold front to the north.  The thunderstorms yesterday forced the front to I-70, but last night the thunderstorms once again formed north as this is where the best upper flow is located.  There were a few thunderstorms near the front Tuesday evening.

Now, today the thunderstorms have forced an outflow boundary south of KC, which will keep the front near by.  These thunderstorms, while missing KC have at least allowed temperatures to be a few degrees cooler.

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So, this afternoon the front/outflow boundary will be set up near I-70.  The new NAM has some nice thunderstorm activity this evening in our area, near KC.  Is this right?  Or, will it be just a few thunderstorms, will they form far to the north?  We will be monitoring this at 41 Action News and have updates all day long.

Have a great day.

Jeff