The Next Big Severe Weather Risk

Good morning bloggers,

Surviving The Storm is on 41 Action News at 6:30 PM tonight:  We will discuss the dates when severe weather will set up, the spring forecast, new radar technology & much more! You can watch it streaming on KSHB.com

It has been one wild month of April.  The jet stream is showing signs of weakening just a bit and retreating north, and this will lead to some warming as winter loosens its grip on North America.  Here is an April calendar showing this wild month of April here in KC. Just look at the extremes, and I didn’t put down there that it was 31 degrees for the high temperature earlier this week, on Sunday. This smashed the record lowest high temperature by ten degrees.  The other lows on this calendar show the other records, and it has snowed three straight Sundays, which is just incredible.

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Todays Video Blog – We look into the end of next week where one of our targeted dates for severe thunderstorms is now beginning to show up on the models:

Video Blog April 19 2018 from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Kansas City is now way below average on rainfall. The pressure will be on the end of next weeks set ups to produce heavy rain, as you can see KC is now over 2″ below average for the year.

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Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click on the blog over on Weather2020 and we can have a great conversation today. I have meetings until later this afternoon, so I will check in when I get the time if you have any questions.  Have a great Thursday!

Gary

The Next Storm May Be Dry In KC Too

Good morning bloggers,

Another snowstorm is tracking across South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa today, clipping northeastern Nebraska. This is a rather strong, but smaller scale storm system that is tracking rather rapidly to the east.  Here is the radar image from 7:45 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 7.28.57 AM

As this system spins into the Great Lakes states today, the next storm system has its “eyes” on the Rocky Mountains and plains.  Take a look at the European Model forecast for total precipitation between now and next Monday:

Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 7.23.44 AM

A couple things to notice on this rainfall forecast are the white area over the KC metro, and the rainfall pattern to the south and west. The winter wheat crop needs a big drink of water and right now, and it appears many areas across Oklahoma and Kansas, into western Texas will get that drink. Amarillo, TX has had two days of rain since October 13th for a total of 0.25″.  This model somehow has the region near Amarillo getting some low amounts, but other models have a lot more rain. And, the Kansas City area on every model has amounts ranging from nothing, as you can see here, to under a tenth of an inch on the GFS. Only the GFS brings any rain at all to KC from this system.

These two storm systems show how frustrating it has been for KC once again. One storm is tracking one state to the north this morning and this next one is going to track around 1/2 to 1 state to the south. We will go more in-depth into the pattern in tomorrows blog.

A cold front moved through early this morning, so it is back into the chilling air. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

A Dry Storm For KC

Good morning,

This wild April continues! I hope everyone is having a great start to this Tuesday.  As we go about our busy days, we have this storm to track. It is a dry storm for Kansas City, but anything but dry for areas just around a half state to the north.  Take a look at this surface forecast map valid at 3 PM this afternoon:

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A rather strong surface cyclone will be developing as an upper level storm intensifies over the Rocky Mountains and tracks over the western plains tonight. As this system tracks east, heavy snow will be developing over the states just north of KC. This would normally be a major severe weather producer, and this storm does not lack low level moisture.

day1otlk_1300From the Storm Prediction Center:  NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST:  Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated through early Wednesday.  Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the United States today. A couple of late afternoon thunderstorms might form in the central high plains/Black Hills vicinity where scant buoyancy could develop near an eastward-ejecting shortwave trough.  Greater likelihood will exist for isolated thunderstorms across the Mid-Missouri Valley tonight into early Wednesday. Here, strong forcing for ascent via low-level warm air advection and mid-level divergence should overcome robust convective inhibition and yield a few thunderstorms along the northern periphery of the Great Plains cap.  Small hail might accompany the strongest updrafts as CAPE will probably remain weak where parcels can freely convect.

So, a thunderstorm is not out of the question, and a few may form. What is fascinating, and this has happened several times in this years LRC, is that the heavier rain and possible thunderstorms that do form this evening just to our northwest, will then track into the colder air and turn into heavy snow. This actually happened in Green Bay a couple of days ago and this is how they had their second biggest snowstorm in their recorded history at just under 24″.

On that surface map, the red line is the warm front, and the yellow line is the dry line.  The warm front is a big factor for KC’s weather today.  South of the front it will reach into the 80s with dew points in the 60s. North of the front bands of clouds will likely form and it will stay in the 50s near KC. The warm front may pass through this evening and we would then have a temperature jump and humidity increase for a few hours before the cold front moves through by early Wednesday. This is just a fascinating storm to track today, but it is a dry storm for KC.  Could we see a rain shower? Sure we may, but that would be it, a five minute rain shower and that is a big maybe, so I have kept the chance under 10%.

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NWS

The NWS tweeted out this graphic above. Three of the coldest April high temperatures ever have happened in 2018. April 1 and 2 came in at 33 and 34 degrees respectively, and the fifth coldest high temperature in April Kansas City recorded history happened on Sunday with a high of 31°. That record really stands out as it may have come in fifth, but it was the latest date by 6 days, and it broke the record by TEN degrees. I am not sure how many times a record gets broken by 10, but it has to be a very rare event.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  This is an interesting and quite difficult forecast. The models that form no clouds (RUC) have highs near 70 degrees in KC this afternoon. There is a strong warm front forming and approaching, but it will stay south of KC all day. So, I am expecting the cloudless models to be wrong and I am forecasting a high near 60°.  Expect east winds at 5-15 mph increasing.
  • Tonight:  The warm front may briefly move through with temperatures near 60 if that happens. The wind will shift to the west and northwest and become gusty by morning. Low:  43°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy, windy, and colder. High:  53°
  • Looking ahead:  A weekend storm will be approaching, but this system has been trending farther and farther south. Kansas City appears to be on the north side of what may be a rather wet storm.  Some models have no rain at all. This has been the trend. If it were a snowstorm, we would have already discussed possible high accumulations, only to be left disappointed once again.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather 2020 blog by clicking here and join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Have a great day!

Gary

Record Breaking Cold April

Good morning bloggers,

The wild April weather ride continues.  Take a look at these past 8 days.

The past 8 days in Kansas City:

  • Sunday, April 8:  High of 38° with 0.8″ of snow. Huge snowflakes!
  • Monday, April 9:  High of 42°
  • Tuesday, April 10:  High of 61°
  • Wednesday, April 11:  High of 80°
  • Thursday, April 12:  High of 82°
  • Friday, April 13:  High of 83°, severe thunderstorms erupt with hail over parts of the KC metro area. One small Supercell tracked just northwest of downtown
  • Saturday, April 14:  High of 52° at midnight, and then SNOW!
  • Sunday, April 15:  Record shattering high of 31°, 10 degrees below the previous record coldest high temperature of 41° in 1993.

And, then this morning we broke the record low, but at least the sun is coming out.  This mornings low broke the record by at least 2 degrees. The low was 26° as of 6:55 AM.

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Look at the surface forecast valid at 7 PM Tuesday.  There will be a strong dry line tracking into western Oklahoma, separating very dry air with dew points in the single digits from a humid air mass surging north across Oklahoma with dew points near 60°.  Conditions are not favorable for thunderstorms, however, with this compact storm moving out into the plains.  Snow will be developing north of KC however. This second map, below, shows the cyclone moving over the Mississippi River by Wednesday morning with some heavy snow developing over Iowa.

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After this moves by, we can look ahead to the next storm, this weekend.  The models are all over the place on the weekend storm.  We just had three days of severe weather tracking from the plains into the east coast last night.  For Kansas City, we continue to be on this rather wild April ride from snow to 80s back to snow again.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  We continue to have a great weather discussion on the blog over at Weather2020. Read everyones comments and join in the conversation if you would like. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

 

 

Snow On Three Straight Sundays In April

Good morning bloggers,

Were you up early like me on this Sunday morning. Here it is 4:30 AM and it is snowing. It is snowing enough to turn everything white outside and it is the third Sunday in a row with snow: April 1st, 8th, and 15th!  Without even checking records, I know this has never happened before in KC.  Let’s see if KCI comes in with 0.1″ of snow. If they do, it will be the eleventh measurable snow of the season.  I will write it in here if it becomes official.

4:30 AM Radar:

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Now, it can’t happen again next weekend can it?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25

What is this? Another major storm next Saturday morning. Let’s see how it lines up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation or read the comments as we all learn together.  Now it is back to looking at the snow.

Gary