#hot

Good Morning Bloggers!

sunrise

We started off with temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s, so get ready for a hot one out there.  High pressure ridge continues to build east and blocks us from rain and cooler temperatures for the next week.  This will keep the storm systems off the west of us through the weekend.  A cold front will try to push south as the ridge flattens next week, but looks like it doesn’t quite get through the area until Wednesday.  A small chance for a few spots in NW Missouri to see some rain tonight and into tomorrow morning with thunderstorms developing in Nebraska and Iowa.

2

 

It has been such a nice summer don’t just assume your golden out in the heat all day.  Take care of yourself because the humidity will make it feel more like 99° to 105° this afternoon. You don’t want to end up like the Wicked Witch of the West…or maybe you do?

melting

 

So…to help you out with this…there is a heat advisory today starting at 1 pm and goes until 8 pm on Friday.

1

 

Good Luck and remember 6 months from now you will be wishing it was like this … I’ll leave you with that.

Kalee Dionne

 

 

Heat Builds, Rain Heads North

Good Wednesday bloggers,

In order for there to be a heat wave you need three straight days of 95° or higher.  It looks like we are about to have our first heat wave this season as our forecast highs are in the 95° to 97° range Thursday through Saturday.  The hotter air may last into Sunday and Monday as the next front looks weak.  A stronger cold front is likely next week.

We are having this heat as an anticyclone, the heat wave creating machine, is forming over the southern USA and expanding north into the Midwest, centered near the Mississippi river.  This ridge will direct the rain making fronts and disturbances north from the Rockies to northern Plains then east to the Great Lakes then southeast into Indiana and Ohio.  So, our area is looking dry and hot into early next week with the big thunderstorms to the north.

Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 5 days.  You need 1.50″ to 2″ of rain per week to keep the yard green, so sprinklers will be needed.

1

Also, the tropics are about to get more active.  There are currently two tropical disturbances drifting west through the Atlantic.  The disturbance marked with an orange “x” has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system in 5 days.  This may have impacts in the Gulf of Mexico in about a week.

two_atl_2d0

Have a great day!

Jeff

Nice Morning of Thunderstorms

Good Morning Bloggers!

Here is a cool picture that was taken by our storm chasers Leslie and Dean Burton:

1

Pretty awesome!  The thunderstorms are pretty much wrapped up at this point and we will stay dry for most of the day.  The reason I saw most is because we could see some development later on tonight.  Timing around 11 pm and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.  Then they would move NE out of the area.  The spots we will focus on for this development later on are from Columbia to Richmond up to Maryville line.  The picture below is our powercast stopped at 11:30 pm.

4

Otherwise the ridge of high pressure will continue to build east and the heat is on for the rest of the week. We could be dealing with our hottest stretch of the summer.

2

The hottest temperature so far this summer is 96° on July 25, 2014 and our forecasted high temperature for Friday is 97°…Will we get that warm? We will keep an eye on it, but right now it is looking good.

What rainfall totals do you all have from this morning?

Kalee Dionne

Thunderstorms tonight?

Good late afternoon bloggers,

The weather is finally going to heat up this week, and as the warmer air begins to surge in tomorrow there is one chance of thunderstorms.  As you can see the dew point was 70° around 4 PM this afternoon:

6

There is a weak cold front approaching. It really is about as weak as it can possibly be and still be called a cold front. Realistically it is more of a wind shift line, and even that is a stretch. It is now located over Iowa and extends southwest into northern Kansas. This should be near Kansas City around 4 AM and this is when our chance of thunderstorms will arrive. We will discuss this on 41 Action News tonight.

Later this week there will be some significant changes.  And, this will lead to the big warm-up, but also a strong cold front that has been in next week’s forecast 12 weeks now using the LRC.  This will be one of the stronger cold fronts of the summer and it will come with two or three chances of thunderstorms between the weekend and early next week.  There is even a chance that we could have a low in the upper 40s by early to mid-next week:

3 PM

 

We will be going in-depth into the developing LRC this fall on the Weather2020 site.  The pattern is still right on schedule at around 57 days.  Take a look at this video that I put together over the weekend. Click here:  The cycling pattern.

Have a great Monday night. I think there will be some thunderstorm development, but most likely later this evening or early in the morning.

Gary

Steady as she goes

If you were up early this morning, you probably experienced a little of that fog. Clouds hung around a tad longer than I expected, but we did manage to clear out afternoon around 1p or so. This, of course, has lead to a slightly humid and warm afternoon. But just you wait, today is the coolest day of the next 7!

Nice looking satellite image taken about an hour or so ago.
VISSAT
You can see a line of storms along the Arkansas & Missouri line. You can also see a few storm clouds in Northern Nebraska, as well as along the Kansas & Colorado line. At this time, I do not expect the rain to hold together (that’s in Western Kansas) and make it to the KC area. Model guidance suggests it gets to about Topeka and then –gasp, shock: surprisingly– falls apart.
The HRRR depicts the radar as looking like this at 10p:
10pCapture

But by 3am, this is how the radar would look (if the HRRR is 100% correct):
3aCapture

So at this time, I am not optimistic about rain impacting us tonight. We do have chances for overnight Monday into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, those odds do not look terribly impressive to me either, but some WILL see rain. Just a matter of if it will be your backyard, or someone else’s backyard.

Looking over the temperature data for the week ahead, I have been conservative in my forecast. Guidance is suggest highs in the middle to upper 90s from Wednesday through Saturday. Since we have had trouble warming up this year, and we still have a wet ground in place, I hesitate to push temperatures warmer. That said, with this setup I’m expecting (the big high pressure building over us, winds turning a bit more to the Southwest), it would be the best chance we’ve seen all summer to truly heat up. Prep the swimming pools and load up on the ice cream…before it melts.

Right now, there are signals that the heat will break by Sunday/Monday of next week. So like we’ve seen all Summer long, the hot stretch won’t last too long. However, this may be the hottest few days in a row we’ve seen since last year. The team will continue to track all of this and keep you updated!

Enjoy the week ahead & be sure to follow along with me on Twitter and Facebook.
-JD