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A Strong Storm Will Develop Later This Week

Good morning bloggers,

A strong storm system will be developing later this week.  It will blast California once again first, and then move out over the Rocky Mountains and into the plains states. It will have impacts on the opening of the 2019 baseball season.  Let’s take a look.

1We will call it “The calm before the storm” as you can see on this first map.  Most of the nation will be rather tranquil the next couple of days before a storm moves inland over the west coast by around mid-week.  South winds ahead of this system will draw in some warmer air, and the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business and moisture will begin to get tapped and surge northward.

7This next map shows the dewpoint temperatures surging northward with a front stalling over Kansas and northern Missouri.  The Gulf of Mexico is wide open and the dewpoints will likely reach into the 60s all the way north into central Kansas by Wednesday night into Thursday.  This will be the fuel for the storm system that is about to become a major spring storm with a winter storm component.  Winter and spring will have a battle of the seasons later this week.

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This next map above shows the strong storm moving inland over the west coast with a strong pressure gradient forming over the plains. Kansas City may have it’s first 70 degree day since October Wednesday, and then there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing around opening day at the K.

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A front will likely be slowly moving or stalled with a cold surge into eastern Colorado and western Kansas by Thursday evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will be forming near the front Thursday and these will likely have an impact on tailgating and possibly the game.

 

On this next map below you can see the storm strengthening by Friday night:

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This storm is likely going to produce 1 to 4 inch rainfall amounts right near the flooded regions near over the Missouri River:

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We will go in-depth into this set up in the next few days.  Iam flying back from Southern California this afternoon.  I am back to work at KSHB-TV on Wednesday and by that time this storm will have come into focus.  Have a great day and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC.

Gary

The Week Ahead and the Royals Home Opener

Good Sunday bloggers,

The main rain with this system went all around us with amounts of .25″ to 2″+ from western Kansas to Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Nebraska. The heaviest of the rain stayed away from the Missouri river basin as it fell in the western Plains. Now, the storm is tracking across southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa today and will bring .25″ to 1″ amounts. This is not enough to enhance the flooding, but at the same time is unwanted.  Our area received just a trace to .25″.

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Let’s go day by day to Opening day. Time is flying as it is hard to believe baseball is back this week.

SUNDAY 3 PM: A surface low will be located in northwest Missouri. This puts much of our region in the warmer air along with peeks of sun. Highs will rise to 60°-65°.

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SUNDAY 6 PM: The surface low will track southeast into central Missouri putting our area in low clouds with temperatures dropping to the 50s and 40s. A few showers will be possible in northern Missouri, but thunderstorms are possible along the I-44 corridor. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather in that area, mostly for hail.

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MONDAY: It will be a cloudy day with highs around 50°.  A few peeks of sun are possible later in the day and mist is possible during the morning. Also. a weak system tracking southeast from Nebraska Monday night, may bring a few rain showers.

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TUESDAY: Clouds will clear during the morning with lows in the 30s and 40s. If the sky clears sooner, then we could see a light freeze, but that will most likely occur across eastern Missouri, Illinois and eastern Iowa. The afternoon will be mostly sunny and quite nice with highs around 60°

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WEDNESDAY: The next storm system will be approaching. It will become quite windy from the south with gusts to 40 mph along with highs around 70°. There will be increasing high clouds, but it should be a dry day.

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THURSDAY (OPENING DAY) MORNING: It will be windy and mild as a disturbance races in from the southwest. This will generate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON (FIRST PITCH: 3:15 PM): It will remain windy from the south with gusts to 40 mph, so it will be blowing out of the “K”. Pitchers beware! It looks like the showers will be moving off to the east and northeast as temperatures rise through the 60s. A strong cold front will be approaching from the northwest. So, right now it looks like the least chance of rain is during the game as it is sandwiched in between the morning disturbance and cold front that arrives Thursday night.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: The cold front will be moving slowly through with rain and thunderstorms likely. Yes, that is snow in Nebraska. We will likely not get snow out of this system, but there is going to be one more chance before April 15th.

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This storm is that start of what will be a crazy April, highlighted by Gary the other day. Another storm will be possible next weekend or shortly thereafter.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Possible Record Missouri Level at St. Joseph

Good Saturday bloggers,

Friday, at 4:15 PM, the Missouri river at St. Joseph possibly reached its all time high level. The level was 32.08 feet, breaking the record set in July 1993 of 32.07 feet. This still has to be verified, but regardless, this is crazy. In 1993, the main flooding occurred after ridiculous spring and summer rain. Notice, the record at St. Joseph, before yesterday was July 1993. We are in March and this is occurring before the spring and summer rain. And, based on the LRC, we expect there to be quite a bit of spring and summer rain. We will be watching the Midwest flooding closely.

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The storm we are tracking this weekend is not a major storm, so it will not exacerbate the ongoing flooding. The heaviest rain from this storm occurred across western Kansas and western Oklahoma where .25″ to 1.50″ fell. This was out of the Missouri and Mississippi river basins.

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This storm is itself not a big deal, but it is part of the problem as it is just one storm in an endless series of storm systems. On the satellite from Saturday morning, you can see the storm systems lined up all the way out in the Pacific Ocean. The next storm after this weekend will affect Wednesday and Thursday. We will look more in to the next storm and possibly the one after that in the Sunday blog.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the area. The heaviest will move in after 3-4 PM.  Highs today will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows Sunday 50°-55°.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The last of the showers will exit early in the morning. Rainfall totals from this storm will be .10″ to 1″. So, it will not cause immediate issues, but it will keep the ground wet and it is part of an endless storm series.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: We will see peeks of sun with highs in the mid to upper 50s ahead of a weak cold front.

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MONDAY: The front moves through Sunday evening. Monday will start cloudy with lows in the low 40s. Then, we will see increasing sunshine from north to south during the afternoon with highs in the low 50s.

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We will have a look at the next storm that could affect Opening day in the Sunday blog.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

A Wild April: Severe Weather Outlook

Good morning bloggers,

As April approaches this weather pattern will continue, the same pattern from this past winter will be moving into severe weather season. We are predicting a rather active severe weather season and we will get to more specifics in three weeks when our spring weather special airs in mid-April. There will likely be a rather significant severe weather outbreak or two in the month of April. There will also be some cold surges blasting south from Canada as winter will take a while to completely fade from view and finally end for the season. The last third of April is likely to produce the worst of the severe weather and then May and early June also look fairly active.  There will be a few more freezes and likely some hard freezes, so don’t put the plants out yet!

The weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC, which is the centerpiece of a big atmospheric puzzle.  The LRC describes order to the chaos in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the river of air flowing above us within the troposphere.  Weather2020 has used this technology to accurately predict each winter storm that has affected the United States this winter weeks to months before they happened, and last years accurate prediction of a Tropical Storm to develop due south of the Florida Panhandle 8 months before there was even a cloud last Labor Day weekend, and Major Hurricane Harvey 55 days before that storm formed the year before.  70 years of research is coming to fruition and we have been sharing it with you here on the Action Weather Blog since 2002.  Again, the LRC is the centerpiece of this big puzzle. There are other influences.  The pattern continues to cycle regularly even with phase changes from El Niño, The Arctic Oscillation, and other influences. Let’s take a look how El Niño failed many weather forecasters this season that just use what the Climate Prediction Center showed in early November as the LRC was still setting up, and let’s compare it to the Weather2020 prediction of the broad pattern.

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The above two screenshots were taken from the Climate Predicted lion Centers outlook issued in early November.  And, the bottom two maps are from the KSHB and Weather2020 predictions made a week or so later:

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Precipitation and Temperatures Last 90 Days

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The above two maps shows the 90 day verifications of what happened form mid-December to mid-March.  For Kansas City, it appears Jeff Penner’s prediction of 27″ of snow (Jeff uses the LRC to make his winter predictions), and my prediction of 26″ for the season will be within 2 to 3 inches of the actual amount, unless more snow is added in April, which is still possible. Kansas City is sitting at around 29″ right now for the season.   These temperature and precipitation anomalies really line up with the LRC weighted predictions.  El Niño has been an increasingly strong influence on the pattern, and it still is just an influence on something much bigger going on.

It is officially becoming an El Niño in a few days:

El Nino Forming

There are other influences on the pattern.  The AO, when it goes negative, it is most likely related to colder outbreaks, and yet as you look below the index has been positive during half of this colder season. Again, these are just influences, quite obviously with this winters example.  The AO has been positive since around mid-February, and it never dipped below -3 this winter. The NAO, not posted here, was near neutral to positive the entire winter.

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A Look Into Opening Day Of Baseball Season

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The El Niño influence has shown up quite strongly with the splitting of the jet stream which is happening again in the next week.  The northern stream in this years LRC set up in such a way that provided the conditions for the cold surges. And, another series of these surges is developing as April approaches, so again prepare for some more freezes and even a chance of more snow.

Opening Day Weather:

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Baseball season begins next week, and there will be a big warm surge arriving around mid-next week.  The warmer air will surge in ahead of a storm system. This storm will be monitored closely for any rain and snow chances across the USA next week. We will get a bit more specific as next week approaches.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Join in the conversation at Weather2020.com.  Have a great day!  I am heading to Los Angeles today, going out to dinner tonight with my high school buddies, 40 year friendships, and then off to Palm Springs to visit some family and get away. I will be back next week, and I will still be keeping up with the blog.

Gary

A Look Ahead To Baseball’s Opening Day

Good morning,

Spring begins today at 4:58 PM central time. Yesterday, it was 72° at Yohin Lake way up in northern Canada.   Surrounded by cold water, Vancouver Island officially hit 75 Tuesday, an all-time record for the month of March.  Tofino, British Columbia broke not only the all-time March high temperature record, but also the April high temperature with 74.  Wow!  Here in Kansas City, we have yet to have a 65° day since October 30th.  We have smashed the record by over a week already.

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With spring beginning, we must remember what happened last year. It was a very cold April, and then suddenly a very warm May.  And, it snowed the first three Sunday’s in April last year.  The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC and we know there are strong storm systems lining up in the next month.  Severe weather risks will be getting closer and the chance of another snow is still alive until we get past another three weeks or so.  Take  a look at this storm forming on opening day for the Royals and White Sox in Kansas City next week:

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This is another very strong surface low forming over southeast Colorado with the latest models showing some rain and thunderstorms that may affect opening day.  Some of the models even have a major snowstorm as this moves by one day later. So, it has our attention. We have been predicting a storm to be arriving around opening day for months already. Let’s see how it sets up.

Have a great Wednesday!

Gary

Signs Of Spring On The Last Day Of Winter

Good morning bloggers,

We have made it to the last full day of winter. Spring begins on Wednesday, and why not – today has a bit of winter and spring over the plains. Let’s take a look.

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This radar map is from around 8 AM this morning.  There was an area of snow over Nebraska near the center of the main upper level storm, the one I showed in yesterdays blog that is dropping southeast from Canada. It picked up a little disturbance that tracked over the Rocky Mountains and it brought the KC region a little rain this morning.  Notice closely to how the rainfall pattern curves anticyclonically, or a clockwise pattern.  Look real carefully. Can you see it?  The echoes extend from western Kansas north into the Nebraska/Kansas border area, and then southeast to near KC.  This is a very good sign that a warm up will surge in here, stronger than every forecast out there, well until now.  A surge to near 60 degrees or higher is likely this afternoon:

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There is a little surface low developing and tracking northeast.  So, this is going to be interesting to track today.  Spring is coming! A look ahead to Opening Day At The K shows a strong storm due in around next Friday. So, if it comes in early it would be problematic. If it is timed for Friday, another big surge of warmer weather is also likely next week.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Missouri River Flooding & Rain Is In The Tuesday Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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This picture shows the Missouri River flooding near Nebraska City.  The Missouri River will is reaching record high levels with major flooding now in progress over parts of Nebraska and Iowa with some developing just northwest of Kansas City.  River flooding is quite different from other types of flooding as it lasts much longer than other flooding scenarios.  The spring forecast from Weather2020 is for this weather pattern to continue and the rains will be increasing and becoming heavier.  The location of the heavier rains is still being defined and this will impact future flooding.  The current flooding is being caused by the recent rains combined with the melting of a lot of snow.

The weather pattern is cycling regularly and the  LRC describes an order to the chaos and this next part of the cycling pattern is another exhibit to showcase this organization and regularity.   There is a disturbance moving into the plains now, and this disturbance is directly related to what has happened in previous LRC cycles, and  seen on December 9th in cycle 2; it is positively tilted.  A positively tilted trough extends from northeast to southwest, whereas a negatively tilted trough extends from northwest to southeast.  This type of storm is rarely wet, and  rarely produces precipitation in Kansas City, and yet this one is continuing the wet trend of where most systems are producing.

5Last Week I shared with you the big upper low, and how it was almost identical to the big upper low in December.  And, now here we are just around a week later, and even this “strange” storm as you can see below, is directly related to the pattern from 100 days ago. The LRC describes the river of air that is cycling across the Northern Hemisphere, and we just experienced an interesting oscillation in the fluid dynamics affecting this years pattern.  The pattern is being influenced by many forcing mechanisms, likely driven by the large ocean waters, and also a land-sea combination with seasonal differences.  I know I am getting a bit deep here, but just look at a river flowing by.  Look at the middle of the river and you will see the main flow that is similar to the jet stream over the Northern Hemisphere. And, then there are influences on this main flow all around it.  But, the river is consistently flowing regularly.  Now, remember the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere does not have physical boundaries like a river would have on the ground. This is actually a huge difference. There are still other influences on this river of air.

This is really an incredible example of how even some of the more unusual features in the flow, in the river of air above us, are predictable using the LRC.

So, what does this mean for our weather?  And, what are we expecting as spring approaches?  Spring begins officially on Wednesday, but according to my peers, spring already began on March 1st.  Let’s take a look at this storm system approaching.

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The positively titled storm system, combined with the overall flow across North America is causing this interesting set for early this week. This map above shows the surface pattern valid at 1 PM this afternoon. High pressure will be over Nebraska and Iowa, right over the location of some of the more significant Missouri River flooding that is in progress.  A warm front will be developing over northern Oklahoma and it will lead to this forecast surface map for tomorrow, below:

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An area of cold rain will be developing. The blue dashed line, near Kansas City, has been the snow line this winter season.  Now that we are in March, and depending on the set up, the snow line is more likely to be the 534 line, or the second blue line. There are a few models that have been showing some snow over Nebraska, with rain near Kansas City by Tuesday morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny with light and variable winds.  High:  53°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds and becoming cloudy with a chance of rain by morning. Low: 38°
  • Tuesday:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain developing.  The amount of rain between Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 1/2″.  High:  47°

This weather pattern is moving into the spring version of the LRC.  We will be looking ahead to opening day of baseball season and we will be in search of Kansas City’s first 65 degree day since October in tomorrow’s blog. Yes, it has not been 65 degrees since October 30th, a record that is hard to comprehend.  We are smashing the longest time period between 65° days.  It won’t happen this week, although there may be one warm up into the lower 60s around Friday that may come close.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the ActionWeather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

 

Happy St. Patrick’s Day

Happy St. Patrick’s Day bloggers,

The luck of the Irish is in full force today.  We are in for a mostly sunny day with a light wind and highs around 50°. The next storm arrives Tuesday and this could bring some heavy downpours.

If you are headed to the parade today it will be around 40° at 11 AM as the parade starts.

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The last time we had river flooding like this over much of the Midwest was in 1993. We did have issues in 2011, but some of these river levels are challenging 1993 levels. The new pattern sets up in October and November and then cycles through the winter, spring and summer(LRC). So, we can take a look at Kansas City rainfall from October 5, 1992 to March 31, 1993 and compare it to the rainfall from October 5, 2018 to March 17, 2019. The worst of the flooding in 1993 occurred in June and July. But, it was a wet and active pattern and since the spring/winter were wet, the ground could not take the massive spring and summer rain events. So, where do we stand as far as rainfall since October 5, 2018?

October 5, 1992-March 31, 1993 KC saw 15.73″ and so far this season we have seen 20.48″ of rain. So, we will be watching this closely as we move through the spring as the active weather pattern continues.

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MONDAY: It will be dry with clouds increasing during the afternoon. Highs will be around 50°. Also, a weak disturbance will race by tonight bringing scattered clouds and perhaps a sprinkle with lows around 30°.

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TUESDAY: A large area of rain will form in Kansas Monday night then spread east affecting much of Kansas and Missouri. The timing for KC will be from around 4 AM to 7 PM Tuesday with temperatures in the 40s. It will be close to snowing, but should be just warm enough to keep it rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This is not a big storm and it will mostly affect Kansas and Missouri. It will leave Iowa and Nebraska with rainfall amounts of a trace to .10″ and Kansas and Missouri with .10″ to 1″. This will not exacerbate the flooding, but it is more rain. So, it will not help as the ground does not get a chance to dry out. This is how long term flooding evolves. It rains every few days. Every rain event does not cause immediate issues, but contributes to the long term problem.  That is what happened in 1993. The rain events became massive in the spring and summer as warmer air holds more water. And, by the time those rains arrived, the ground was already saturated, and rivers were already high so we had the “Flood of ’93.” I flew over Iowa, from Chicago, in August of 1993 and I will never forget what I saw. Iowa looked like an ocean with the sun glistening off of the water.  I wish I had a cell phone to take the picture.

The next chance of rain after Tuesday is next weekend. It will be hard with this weather pattern to get 5-7 consecutive dry days.

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Have a great week and please DON’T DRINK/TEXT AND DRIVE

Jeff Penner

Great Weather for Parades!

Good Saturday bloggers,

It is a weekend without a storm which seems like forever. But, due to all of the storm systems we are seeing significant river flooding. The Missouri river may set a record crest at Atchison on Tuesday of 31.8 feet, breaking the old record of 31.6 feet set in 1993. That is saying something.

There are areal flood warnings from Wisconsin to eastern Nebraska with river flood warnings covering the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. The Mississippi river is in a flood warning all the way to the Gulf coast.

It is not uncommon for there to be river flood warnings in March as you get snow melt, rain and due to the frozen ground the rain does not all soak in. So, flooding can be a problem. What is uncommon is the amount of flooding and the record crests. This due to the endless storm systems. The next 5-7 days we are in a bit of a break, but a system on Tuesday will bring some heavy downpours. Fortunately, it is not a big storm. However, this is the same pattern, and the nonstop storm systems will start up again next weekend and last for some time.

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TODAY: We will see great weather for Snake Saturday. It will be sunny with a southwest breeze at 10-15 mph out ahead of a weak cold front. This will take temperatures close to 60°. It will be very nice out at the parade in Brookside where Gary and Sunny are the Grand Marshals. A small area of rain and snow will be possible in northeast Iowa.

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ST. PATRICK’S DAY: A weak cold front will drift by turning our winds to the north at 5-10 mph. There will still be abundant sunshine with highs a bit cooler around 50°. The front will be stalling in southwest Kansas as it becomes a warm front in response to the next storm system.

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DRUNK DRIVING WARNING is in effect in the memory of all those killed or injured in drunk driving accidents. Nathan McDuffy was killed over 20 years ago. Please DO NOT drink/text or drive.

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MONDAY: It will be another dry day with increasing clouds as our next storm system begins to form. Highs will be around 50° and you can see a small area of rain forming in northwest Kansas.

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TUESDAY: The small area of rain in northwest Kansas will grow and track slowly east Monday night and Tuesday evolving into a decent area of rain. It will affect much of Kansas and Missouri and a little bit farther north. There may be some snowflakes mixed in as temperatures will be 35°-45°. There will also be embedded heavy downpours.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: Nebraska and Iowa, upstream, will see amounts of a trace to .50″. Kansas to Illinois will see .25″ to 1″. This may not hurt the flooding, but it won’t help. Heavier amounts are possible south into Oklahoma. You know it is a wet pattern when even the small systems bring substantial totals.

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Tuesday is the one main day of rain through Friday. More rain is possible next weekend as the next storm arrives and this will start a prolonged period of active weather.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Sensing Spring

Good morning bloggers,

It’s Friday!  Well, we made it through winter.  I doubt we have had our last chance of snow, but the signs of spring have finally become loud and clear.  Kansas City has still not had a 65° day since October 30th, which is one of the most incredible records I have seen in a long time.  We would never have thought that we would set that kind of record this year, even though the Weather2020 LRC prediction of a colder winter in the face of a developing El Niño has verified.  It is now March 15th, and we still wait for our first 65° day. It will likely finally happen later next week, in fact a 70° is also likely within around one week.  I will make that call on 41 Action News as I put my 7 day forecast together soon.

Saturday:

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There will be a very weak cold front approaching Saturday. This will provide the conditions with a surge to near 60 degrees Saturday afternoon. This is great news for Sunny The Weather Dog and myself as we are Grand Marshal of the Brookside St. Patrick’s Day Parade. Here is the route:

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The parade begins at 2 PM, so get lined up early. We will see you there.  Have a great day! We will look ahead over the weekend and on 41 Action News tonight on Friday Night In The Big Town.

Gary