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A Slick Morning As Storm Moves Off To The East

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday was quite the interesting weather day for us weather enthusiasts and it has now had an impact on many of our lives this morning.  There are many school closings in Kansas City, and the roads are slick, so provide a lot of extra time if you are heading into work this morning.  The sun will be coming out in full force, so conditions will improve, but it will be a cold day with highs in the lower 20s.  Snowfall amounts were about as predicted yesterday. Here was our prediction, with some of the amounts that have come in so far.

SnowSnowfall amounts:

  • Stewartsville, MO (just east of St. Joseph):  5.0″
  • St. Joseph, MO:  4.5″
  • Lawrence, KS:  3.0″
  • Platte City, MO:  2.5″
  • Shawnee, KS:  2.1″
  • Kansas City, North:  2.0″
  • The Plaza:  1.3″
  • Blue Springs, MO:  1.0″
  • Please provide more totals, and I will add to this list……

From MODOT: “Even with crews out all night, we had more snow than expected and lots of drifting snow. Many roads are still covered and many slick spots. Drive safely.”  Well, we know this is simply not true if they would have monitored our prediction.  As you can see, these numbers are falling right into place on the forecast that we put out yesterday. The sleet that fell cut into the totals in a few spots.  That snow was coming down pretty strongly and it just didn’t last that long.

The Weather Pattern:

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A strong and deep upper low and trough is forming and will extend from northern Canada south into Texas by Thursday afternoon as you can see above.  Fast moving disturbances in northwest flow aloft will have to be monitored closely, and there will be potential Arctic blasts as each wave moves through.

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One of these disturbances looks to be a dry one early on Thursday.  A wet storm will be moving across the eastern seaboard tomorrow with snow inland and rain along the coast extending from New England to Florida.  An Arctic front will be moving through KC early Thursday morning and temperatures will drop again later in the day:

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By Friday morning, as you can see above, temperatures will drop to way below zero across northern Missouri north into Canada. KC is on the edge of this Arctic blast, and just as it gets here a disturbance will zip by as you can see below:

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A fast moving wave may produce 1  to 2 inch snowfall amounts over southern Iowa and Missouri Friday afternoon. Kansas City is on the edge of this one, and others.  This will mostly be  a dry weather pattern for the next week or so. When is the next chance of a more significant storm in KC according to the LRC?  One system is likely around the first few days of February. We will be monitoring for that system soon.  In the mean time bundle up, and let’s watch these fast moving systems closely.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions by clicking on the Weather2020 blog and have a great day. Here is the link:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

A Storm Forms With Rain And Snow Likely

Good morning bloggers,

Who is ready for some more snow?  Did you know it has now snowed on 20 days so far this season?  In Kansas City, this season began with the earliest measurable snow ever recorded on October 14th.  Here are the snowfalls from just a trace amount indicated by the T:

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There have been ten days with measurable snowfall already, and today is likely going to make it 11, and tomorrow may be the 12th date with measurable snow as it may last past midnight.  Why? Because we have this storm system developing right now:

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The trend has been for this system to evolve and track a bit farther south, and evolve into a splitting upper level storm. One part may form and spin north into Nebraska and Iowa and weaken, and a new disturbance will likely break off and redevelop tracking just south of KC. This second disturbance is the one to watch for increasing snow potential tonight. If it doesn’t quite separate and break off, then the chance of accumulation farther south will be less.  I favor the breaking off and strengthening system as that is what happened in this part of the pattern in the last LRC cycle.  Kansas City only had around 1/2″ of snow out of that system, and it developed and intensified right over the city. It was just a fast moving weak system, and this one looks slightly stronger than that one. here i one possible solution for around 10 PM tonight:

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Notice the little dry area east of KC.  This is likely being caused by “the dry slot” which may form.  If this dry slot develops, it may be hard to recover and pull the snow farther south, unless the storm tracks farther south, which has been the trend.

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I am trying to show you what may happen tonight.  Notice the upper low over southern Iowa.  If this is stronger, then the dry slot will take over and we will get just a dusting. If that northern system weakens, and the southern system strengthens, even just a little bit more than this RUC model shows, then 2 to 3 inches will be possible.  As a result I am showing this snowfall potential forecast at the moment, and we will look for these features tonight. I will point them out on 41 Action News, IF I can find them on the satellite or radar images:

Snow

These our the numbers I adjusted showing aggressive totals for this situation.  Let’s see what happens:

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Kansas City Weather Time-line:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain developing later in the day.  South winds at 15-30 mph will warm temperatures into the 40s.
  • 4 PM – 7 PM: The wind will shift to the northwest and temperatures will drop to near or below 32 degrees by the end of the rush hour. A rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow changeover line will likely develop and move across the KC metro area.
  • 7 PM – 4 AM:  The precipitation will change to snow and then end. One period of heavy snow is possible. Accumulations of a dusting to 3″ is likely near KC.  Now, remember this means a dusting to 1/2″ is possible, and if it is better organized some spots may get higher amounts.  Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s with slick and hazardous conditions developing
  • Wednesday:  Becoming mostly sunny and cold.  The wind will shift to the southwest and be gusty up to 25 mph leading to cold wind chills near 10 degrees. High:  29°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  This is another LRC bullseye to hit this week.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments and let’s discuss the new data on the Weather2020 blog. Here is the link:  The Weather2020 Blog

Have a great day!

Gary

An Arctic Blast Arrives This Week

Good morning,

In Kansas City we are recovering from another horrible playoff disappointment. The Chiefs lost 37-31 in overtime on a cold night at Arrowhead.  The Chiefs defense made a stop when Dee Ford was in the neutral zone and an interception that would have put the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the first time in 49 years was called back because of that penalty.  There are so many other take aways, but that moment was the one where the Super Bowl was in the Chiefs hands.  There is a lot more I might want to discuss here, such as the flawed overtime system in the NFL where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs did not even get the ball due to losing a coin toss, but I will move on, and it may hurt for a while longer.  It’s time to recover and realize that it is a game. We have our lives. We have some exciting weather to share.  It is just sports and weather, two passions I have.  So, let’s get back to weather, and enjoy each day.

The developing weather pattern:

A strong storm is going to develop tonight and Tuesday.  At the surface, this storm produces a low pressure center that will be near KC by 3 PM Tuesday afternoon.  Here is a look at that storm system.  Let me know if you have any questions about a surface maps such as this one.  The black lines are isobars, and I drew in the fronts:

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This surface cyclone will pull the cold front through KC by late afternoon. There is a chance of a few snowflakes in KC as the cold air rushes in:

namconus_ref_frzn_scus_39

And some models have a lot of snow in northern Nebraska and Iowa:

gem_asnow_ncus_8

After this system moves by, we will be anticipating a stronger cold front due in Thursday night.  Take a look at this:

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This now appears it will be the strongest cold blast of the season so far.  Temperatures will likely drop to near zero on Thursday night/Friday morning.  Some models have a little band of snow near the leading edge of this blast.  We will discuss this more in tomorrow’s blog.

Have a great day. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

AFC Championship Game Day Forecast

Good Sunday bloggers,

The day we have been waiting for has arrived. The Chiefs are playing for the right to play in the Superbowl tonight. We have been going for cold weather and that is a certainty. But, could we see snow? There is a small disturbance in Nebraska that could bring flurries/very light snow for tailgating.  It is heading our way, and as you can see, it is rather small, and if it snows at all, even a few snowflakes could make people “freak out” a bit.  We are getting so many messages of “at least your forecast was wrong for game day, it didn’t turn out the way you thought”. And, we are like, “what are you talking about”. It is going to be around 14 degrees by the end of the game with wind chills possibly below zero.  What is it that was wrong with this prediction? It may rise to 20 or 22 for tailgating as that disturbance approaches, then guess what, we get a “back door” cold front.  Yes, a cold surge from the northeast arrives during the game, and if anything, that is the twist in the forecast.

At present course and speed this snow is timed for 11 AM to 3 PM. Right now it looks like flurries to a dusting. So, keep that in mind if you are headed to a watch party or the game.

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SUNDAY: A warm front will be setting up near KC today with highs in the 30s to near 40 in Kansas. This warmer air will not make it this way as the disturbance heading this way will move by and push the colder air back west as it moves by. So, for the game, the temperatures will actually drop a few degrees with wind chill values near 0°.

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SUNDAY (3 PM): You can see the patches of light snow. This could affect tailgating at Arrowhead. A dusting is possible, so keep this in mind if you are headed to a watch party or the game. Even a dusting can make it slick. Temperatures will be 15°-20°. The warm front has become a cold front and is pushing the warmer air farther away.

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SUNDAY (6 PM): The wind will be from the east and northeast at 10-15 mph with the snowflakes moving away. Temperatures will begin to slip as the colder air pushes back in.

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Here is the forecast for the AFC Championship game. There is a chance of flurries and very light snow 11 AM-3 PM that could dust the ground white. You can see from around Kickoff to the end of the game temperatures will drop a few degrees and the wind chill will be near zero.

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Will we be able to see the eclipse, the Super(bowl) Blood (red) (KC)wolf moon? There is going to be a cloud problem for sure. But, after the little disturbance moves by we may see enough breaks or thinner clouds so that the moon will be visible.

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We have another storm that will affect the middle of the USA Tuesday.

MONDAY: There will be lots of mid and high level clouds with highs 30°-35°. The warmer temperatures will be negated by a southeast wind at 15-25 mph, so wind chill values will be in the teens.

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TUESDAY: It looks like we will be on the warmer side of the storm with the best chance of accumulating snow across Nebraska, Iowa and far northern Missouri. We will have the chance to see drizzle or a few light rain showers. If the drizzle comes in faster, it could start as freezing drizzle early Tuesday. Also, as the storm exits Tuesday afternoon and night we could see some snow showers.

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It is another day where sports and weather are converging!

GO CHIEFS!

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

AFC Championship Game Weather Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Well, that was a bit deflating last night wasn’t it?  The band of snow set up, and I am sure many of you would agree that around 8:45 PM it was looking really good for a nice 2 or 3 inches of snow.  And, then while I was actually on Facebook Live showing the developments of the band of snow, the radar echoes around 15 minutes later pulsed down and never recovered.  It still did snow and just not enough to bring us a second big producing snowstorm in seven days.  Kansas City had a dusting to 2″ of snow, which was really what it was looking like.  I was hoping for a bit more organization.  What happened? The storm dove way down into Texas in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and it never closed off into an upper low.  So now, it is time to look ahead.

AFC Championship Game Forecast:

The New England Patriots will face the Kansas City Chiefs in a huge AFC Championship game at Arrowhead Stadium. This is the first AFC Championship game to be played in KC and the Chiefs are favored. The weather looks pretty decent as well:

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There is a chance it will be three to five degrees warmer than my prediction here.  The question after the game is over, is will it be a high overcast which would limit the viewing of the total lunar eclipse that begins at 8:36 PM Sunday night?  There is a band of clouds forecast to stream overhead, and I am hoping they will be thin.

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This map shows an increasing pressure gradient with a warm front south of KC.  This front will be developing in response to an upstream storm system that will produce snow just north of KC Tuesday.

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This map above shows the next storm tracking across Iowa into Wisconsin. This may produce a band of light snow or flurries in KC, and another cold blast.  Speaking of cold blasts, we have to continue to monitor the weather pattern closely for some blocking. I have been predicting blocking to develop by around the first week of February. Some of the models show this, and some do not.

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This is Sunny The Weather Dog as she is looking at the snowflakes last night.  We hope everyone has a great Saturday.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a  great Saturday.

Gary

6:45 PM Update On The Rain/Snow Changeover Line

Good evening bloggers,

This has been one of the hardest days to predict potential snowfall.  This storm will likely leave a few of us frustrated, and then also a few of us living farther north have a better chance of being fulfilled.  Some dangerous and slick conditions will likely develop as Arctic air moves this way. How cold will it be for the AFC Championship game at Arrowhead? More on that tomorrow. For now, look at this:

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This is how I have it timed out right now.  The changeover line is essential for the amount of snow you may end up with.  Here is our forecast:

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This was the surface map as of 5 PM…..wow!

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I am swamped, so that is it for now. I will be doing Facebook live at 8:45 PM. Join us there, and have a great Friday Night In The Big Town.

Gary

Winter Storm Warning Northeast Of KC

Good morning bloggers,

There is a lot to discuss this morning.  I made a video and tried to explain how this storm approaching is not being handled by the models well at all.  There are things to look for on the new data, and even though we are just hours away from that rain/snow line developing, there are still uncertainties to the timing of when that rain/snow line will pass through your location.  I think the storm will be coming in a bit slower and stronger today, and this will be important for Kansas City’s snowfall totals.  Let’s take a look.

Today’s Video:


The snowfall forecast I showed at 10 PM last night on 41 Action News:

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And, here is the European Model from overnight:

Screen Shot 2019-01-18 at 7.09.32 AM

The European Model came in with a solution that brought the snow down to the south side of the KC metro area, and still had Overland Park, KS on the edge of a dusting to 5″ of snow.  It will depend on the track and strength of the upper level storm.

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The rain/snow line will set up by later this afternoon and evening, and then we will really be able to narrow in on totals.  We will update this blog around 5:45 PM as this comes into focus.

The strength of the storm will also have big implications on the AFC Championship game. A bit stronger of a storm would lead to colder on Sunday.  Let’s see how this trends today on the models.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  This is another storm that was predicted 45 days ago, and it is right on schedule!  Now, the specifics are still quite challenging. Check back in around 6 PM tonight, and watch 41 Action News for the in-depth forecast.  Have a great day.

Gary

Tracking A Storm & The AFC Championship Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Screen Shot 2019-01-17 at 7.03.02 AM

A storm system will be developing tonight and Friday, and then begin affecting Kansas City.  This will be a storm that tracks from the Rocky Mountains, out into the plains, and then to off the New England coast by Monday.  There will be some significant impacts and there are still a lot of questions to be answered.

Snowfall Forecast From The FV3 GFS Model Ending Sunday Night:

fv3p_asnow_us_17

The snowfall amount forecast is from the FV3 GFS model, which has been the most consistent in the past two days. This shows 1″ to 8″ amounts across the KC viewing area, and over a foot from eastern Indiana to inland areas of New England.  For KC, the amount of snow will depend on a few factors that are still undetermined.  There will be a rain/snow line that will track across the region as you can see below:

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This map shows that rain/snow changeover line is near downtown KC at 11 PM Friday night.  There is a cold air mass that will be heading south, and if it is a bit faster, then amounts will be higher.  The strength and track of the upper level storm will help answer these questions. Important:  In the last LRC cycle (the pattern is cycling and Weather2020 uses this technology called LRC) this part of the pattern produced a major winter storm with blizzard conditions north of KC by around a state. It was an impacting storm in KC with around an inch of rain and then around 1/2″ of snow.  It could do exactly the same thing, with one big difference in the fact that it is tracking farther south in this January version of the cycling pattern.  In the previous cycle, the storm intensified stronger than any of the computer models were projecting and it was a very strong upper level low over Kansas.  If this storm comes out into the plains a bit stronger, it will be capable of creating two to four extra hours of snow, and it would slow the storm down just a bit. This two to four hours of snow extra would make the difference between some areas only getting 1/2″ of snow again to 3 to 4 additional inches of snow. The FV3 GFS model was the strongest solution and this is why amounts were a bit higher.

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I am expecting close to an inch liquid again.  Depending on where you live, that rain/snow changeover line will be important, and likely the difference in receiving around an inch or possibly much more.  Temperatures will be dropping into the 20s Friday night into Saturday morning, and possibly all the way down to around 15 degrees. This will zap some of the moisture content out of the snow, but it will initially be a wet snow again and stick to everything when it first starts falling. Eventually it will become fluffier and blow around.

There is a lot to discuss. GO CHIEFS!  And, thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to Weather2020.com and check out our new website when you get a chance.

Gary

Two Storm Systems To Track

Good morning bloggers,

In Kansas City it has been cloudy for quite a long time.  There has been no sun at all since last Thursday, so today is our sixth straight completely cloudy day.  We have had rain, snow, fog, and not a lot of wind.  And, there has yet to be an Arctic blast this season.  The coldest Kansas City has been is 9 degrees above zero, and that was way back on the 10th of November.  A year ago it had already been down below zero quite a few days.

Take a look at the coldest mornings so far in KC:

  • 9° on November 10th
  • 12° on November 27th
  • 13° on November 9th
  • 14° on December 9th
  • 17° on  January 1st

This is amazing, if you think about it, and there is still a lot of winter left.  Kansas City just had 4″ to 12″ of snow, and a deep snowpack remains.  This cloudy stretch has been a blanket, keeping the low temperatures high.

Tonight’s weak storm system:

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There is a fast moving and rather weak storm that will track across the plains tonight into the Mississippi River Valley by morning.  This map above show the HRRR model valid at 11 PM central time tonight.  Temperatures will be near freezing, and a band of rain, sleet, snow, and possibly some light freezing rain will track across the Kansas/Missouri state line.  There may be some minor accumulation of ice and snow, most likely north of KC, and we just have to monitor this situation closely.  A weak surface cyclone will be tracking across Oklahoma tonight.

The stronger storm system:

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The models came in last night with widely varying solutions for the highly advertised next storm system.   As we showed in yesterday’s blog, this storm fits the part of the LRC that produced around an inch of rain and a half inch of snow in KC.   This is a storm that has its energy source still way out over the Pacific Ocean and it will not be hitting the coast until tomorrow, and this is why the models are having a problem with this set up.  The European Model and the FV3 GFS model have been the most consistent, and still have a set up similar to the one you can see above.  Both models produce 2″ to 6″ of snow near KC by noon Saturday, while other models have mostly rain, with only a 1/2″ of snow (which again is what happened in the last cycle).  There is also a trend for it to be a bit warmer on Sunday, as the Arctic blast has been trending weaker in the recent model runs.

Here is the Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Wednesday:  Cloudy.  The wind will be light and from the northeast, shifting to the east.  High: 33°
  • Wednesday Night:  Cloudy with a 60% chance of light rain-sleet-snow.  Little or no accumulation expected and temperatures will drop to near freezing.  A little accumulation would still cause some significant problems, so we will be monitoring this closely.
  • Thursday: Cloudy in the morning, with a chance of sunshine by afternoon.  High:  36°
  • Friday:  Cloudy with the wind increasing from the southeast at 10-20 mph.  High:  38°
  • Friday Night – Saturday:  Rain changing to snow, becoming heavy, and the wind increasing from the north at 20-30 mph.  Some higher gusts will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. Snowfall accumulations are likely.  Temperatures dropping from the 20s into the teens. The snow will end later in the day with more blowing and drifting of the snow.
  • Sunday: Becoming sunny and brutally cold. High:  15°.  It will be dry for the Chiefs game with the wind dying down. Wind chills will be 15 below zero early in the day.

Total Eclipse Of The Moon on Sunday night:

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As the AFC Championship game goes into the end of the 4th quarter, the moon will begin to be eclipsed.  It has to be a good sign for the Chiefs, as it is a KC Wolf Blood Lunar Eclipse!  Have a great day and head over to the Weather2020 blog and share in this weather experience.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

A Major Winter Storm Is In The Late Week Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

DENSE FOG ADVISORY!  Dense fog will lift by mid-late morning, and temperatures have been rising all night!

Arctic Blast Watch!  A Major Winter Storm is likely going to form Friday and track across the plains Friday night and Saturday into the Mississippi River Valley.  An Arctic air mass will blast south in the wake of this major winter storm.  Take a look at this:

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This is a forecast from one of last nights models valid Saturday morning.  If this is at all close to being correct, KC would again be having a heavy snowfall and this time with some wind.  This fits the LRC, and it will be discussed on the Weather2020 blog by clicking on this link: Weather2020 Blog   Weather2020 launched a new website and if you have any event-wedding-vacation that you need a weather forecast for, you can purchase that forecast for your event by clicking on the Save-the-date Weather2020 planner.  It’s a great way to save your wedding or vacation weather forecast.  We will go in-depth on the Weather2020 blog as we discuss the LRC, and the accurate predictions of these storm systems weeks to months ahead of time.

Here is the Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Dense Fog Advisory.  The fog will lift and temperatures will rise to a bit above freezing today. Expect the clouds to stay strong the rest of the week. The next sunshine is expected Thursday or Sunday when the brutally cold air arrives.  High:  36°
  • Wednesday:  Cloudy.  The wind will be light and from the northeast, shifting to the east.  High: 34°
  • Wednesday Night:  Cloudy with a 60% chance of light rain-sleet-snow.  Little or no accumulation expected and temperatures will drop to near freezing.
  • Thursday: Cloudy in the morning, with a chance of sunshine by afternoon.  High:  36°
  • Friday:  Cloudy with the wind increasing from the southeast at 10-20 mph.  High:  38°
  • Friday Night – Saturday:  Rain changing to snow, becoming heavy, and the wind increasing from the north at 20-30 mph.  Some higher gusts will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. Snowfall accumulations are likely.  Temperatures dropping from the 20s into the teens. The snow will end later in the day with more blowing and drifting of the snow.
  • Sunday: Becoming sunny and brutally cold. High:  10°.  It will be dry for the Chiefs game with the wind dying down. Wind chills will be 15 below zero early in the day.

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Not only will this cold blast arrive to create the conditions for one of the coldest NFL games ever played in Kansas City, but there will also be a total Lunar Eclipse Sunday night beginning around the 4th quarter of the big AFC Championship game:

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Go over to the Weather2020 blog for a more national look and an in-depth analysis of the cycling pattern known as the LRC.  Have a great day!