Morning Thunderstorms Form Early

Good morning bloggers,

What happened yesterday was absolutely fascinating, and thunderstorms were forming at 3:30 AM when I was writing this blog entry.  A series of disturbances in northwest flow aloft continues to bring the region these chances of rain, that are till producing hits and misses, and this morning is an other example of a hit or miss.   The south side of the KC metro area was the bulls-eye with over four inches of rain in spots as you can see with these rainfall totals:

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Yesterdays system left a disturbed area of unstable air lingering over the KC metro area, and areas to the northwest and southeast. At 3:30 AM, some new thunderstorms and rain showers were developing:

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There was a northwest to southeast band of unstable air, and one of the thunderstorms developing was just south of my house as I was writing this entry. If you remember the forecast from a week ago for today to be the cooler one with a high in the 70s with thunderstorms, well, it is close to happening, and sort of already happened with yesterdays cloudy and stormy high of 81 degrees. It is very early in the morning, but there is a good chance that it will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s either near KC, or just to our east today.  This was a forecast emphasizing the LRC, as this part of the pattern is directly related to around the time Hurricane Nate was forming right at the beginning of this years LRC, and in each cycle a storm dropped by KC at the same time, one of which was around January 9th to 11th, and we had a rainy day in January with that system; a cold blast with rain changing to snow with around .2 to .4 inches of rain followed by around 1/2″ inch of snow, and a drop from 51 degrees to 11 degrees.  The timing of the precipitation just wasn’t right as most of it fell as rain, before we had one of those black ice events the next morning when it dropped to 4 degrees.  This weeks cooler weather is right on schedule, but of course there is no Arctic air in July.  Today is 188 days later, or exactly 47 times 4 days ago, exactly on cycle.

In January, the Arctic air blasted in, and there is no Arctic air available in July, so what happens next in the July twist of the cycling pattern will be interesting.  It may go from the 70s in spots today, or into the lower 80s, and then all the way up to near 100 degrees by tomorrow afternoon.  Look at this forecast temperature map valid Thursday around 4 PM:

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Look at the cool pocket over Minnesota tomorrow, but what really stands out is a burst of heat that expands out over KC from potentially 110 degree plus air one state away.  Wow!  We will discuss this and much more on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely this morning, mainly near KC, and to the north and east. The chance of rain is 50% as some spots will still get missed once again.  High:  81° (70s in the areas that the rain lingers into the afternoon)
  • Tonight: A chance of a few thunderstorms developing again.  Low:  70°
  • Thursday:  Any thunderstorms ending, then sunny with much warmer temperatures. High: 96°
  • Thursday night-Friday:  A chance of heavy thunderstorms, a few may be strong.  High:  88°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation or just read the comments to learn more about our exciting weather patterns.  Have a great day.

Gary

A Disturbance Heads Southeast Across The Plains

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday I titled the blog, “Trying to stay positive”.  Today, I am a bit hesitant to get excited about rain chances, but why. Take a look at this enhance satellite picture as of 7 AM:

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There were numerous thunderstorms early this morning, and a disturbance was tracking east-southeast across the plains.  This was heading right towards KC, and yet we have seen a few of these before. This area of thunderstorms was a bit stronger than most of the systems this year, and we are monitoring it closely.  The main part of the disturbance was located southwest of Salina, KS, and this is not in a good position for Kansas City to have the best chance of rain or thunderstorm redevelopment later today.

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Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a rain likely and maybe a few thunderstorms.  The chance of rain is 80%.  High: 80°
  • Tonight:  Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms.  Low:  68°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms.  High:  85°

Let’s monitor this current area of thunderstorms, and the disturbance that is causing it.  Have a great day!  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation.

Gary

Trying To Stay Positive

Good morning bloggers,

ZERO POINT ZERO EIGHT INCHES!  That is right, KCI Airport has had 0.08″ this month. The average July rainfall is around 4 1/2 inches.  I know we are all going to get tired of hearing this, but we are in a horrible weather pattern.  It is so hard to describe how things will miss us over and over again, and that is my job.  And, this of course fits this years LRC perfectly.  The same pattern has actually produced similar results near KC since it began with very few exceptions. Hey, we are just three months away from a new LRC.  Right now, the anticyclone, or heat wave creating machine, is forecast to drift out west and by Wednesday it will be over Las Vegas, NV.  It will be sizzling out there.  The main jet stream, which is indicated by the dark blue line over central Canada, is way far north, but there is a strong negatively tilted system singing southeast over the plains as indicated by that black dashed line. This is directly related to a storm that dug southeast in January, and this system is heading southeast now.  This should produce some interesting thunderstorm set ups this week.

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One of the thunderstorm set ups is forecast by last nights GFS model to produce thunderstorms over KC Wednesday night.  Well, we know what is more likely going to happen, right?

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Have a great day. Here is a picture of last nights sunset with Sunny The Weather Dog.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.  This picture is of an anvil at sunset. The anvil is really an “orphan” anvil, what was leftover by its now dissipated parent thunderstorm, and it provided the clouds for the beautiful “Sunny” sunset.

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Gary

Rain is Still Needed

Good Sunday bloggers,

Some locations received some great rain on Saturday, while others were left dry. So, basically this is the same old story. The drought was not dented, so more rain is needed. There are chances the next 5-7 days, but you can probably guess what the trend in the data is showing.

Here are radar estimated rainfall totals from the last 48 hours. You can see the spotty nature of the rain. The big winners were north central Missouri and south Kansas City.

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When we look closer at the KC area you can see areas north of the river saw a trace to .25″ and south of the river received .50″ to 1.50″. Remember, these are radar estimated totals, so your rain gauge may read different. This is great, but clearly we need more rain. What is next?

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TODAY-TONIGHT: Today will see highs 90°-95° with the chance of an isolated T-Storm. A small disturbance will track south of our area tonight and it may generate a small cluster of thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will be dry with lows in the low 70s.

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TUESDAY: This will be a comfortable day with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. The humidity will be a bit lower as well.

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WEDNESDAY: The cooler weather is nice, but rain is needed. Well, here we go again. The data is trending towards Wednesday-Thursday thunderstorms to be located across Nebraska and Iowa. It looked like we would be involved with this rain with highs in the 70s and 80s. If this is right, we will be in the 80s to low 90s as the thunderstorms stay north. Now, we still have to watch this as it could track farther south and/or we could see a southern scattered extension of the rain. As is, we do get a southern scattered extension.

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THURSDAY: The thunderstorms track from Nebraska and Iowa to eastern Missouri, basically going around eastern Kansas and western Missouri. It will be nice when this pattern ends. Hopefully, this event will step out of the box, but the trend is not our friend.

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FRIDAY: There is a new chance of thunderstorms showing up. But, once again it is suspect and will not cover all locations. We shall see how this trends the next few days.

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There is one good thing about the weather this week. It will not be as hot as last week with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

The Heat Wave Breaks Today!

Good Saturday bloggers,

The third heat wave of the season has ended. July 11-13, 2018 was the hottest three day stretch since July 24-26, 2012. Also, the 5 year 100° streak ended as well. So, today with highs mostly in the 80s it will feel much better. What would be even better is if we could end the drought. There will be areas of heavy downpours today, but it will not be nearly enough or widespread enough to even dent the drought. It is just nice to see cooler temperatures and some rain.

Before we get to the forecast, here are the latest 2018 rainfall totals around the area.

KC is nearly 7″ below average.

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Olathe is 11″ below average.

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St. Joseph is about 9″ below average and this does not include the 0.65″ they received early Saturday.

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Lawrence, KS is about one foot below average.

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Needless to say, we need rain. There is a system today that will bring some locations nice downpours.

There was a well defined twist of light rain early Saturday located between Wichita and Emporia. This system is tracking northeast at about 20 mph. So, it will be in KC between noon and 1 PM. New showers and thunderstorms will form with this system after 10 AM, so this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

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Here is the data from our in house model for 3 PM Saturday. This is a sight for sore eyes. There are heavy downpours, centered on KC. Temperatures are in the 70s where it is raining. Now, before we all get excited, this area of downpours could end up just about anywhere. So, if your yard or farm is in the rain on this data, it is not a slam dunk that you will see great rain. It is going to depend on the track of the small storm system. “Small” is the keyword, because, it will not be able to bring decent rain to all locations. Some locations will see 1″ to 2″ of rain, while others receive a few drops or nothing.

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The system will exit 6-8 PM, taking the downpours away. It will end up being a nice evening with temperatures mostly in the 70s. So, if you are headed to the Kenny Chesney concert there will be a chance of downpours, mostly before 7 PM, then it will be nice.

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If you miss the rain today, the next decent chance will be Wednesday-Thursday. Sunday will heat back up to the low 90s, but a cold front Monday will take us back to the 80s and the heat will stay away until Friday or Saturday.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner