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Winter Forecast In Two Days

Good morning bloggers,

The Snowflake Contest ended at 10:33 AM on the Plaza.  Our weather team measured the one inch, and than another half inch fell in the next hour as a band of snow was nearly stationary right over Kansas City.  This puts the Plaza up to 1.8″ this season already, while a few spots south of KC are over 5″ for the season thus far.  KCI Airport had 0.5″, and the total now for the season is 2.0″ as our official number.  What a great beginning to the season as it has already snowed on five different days, and four of them came in the previous five days (Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday). Wow!  Not a bad start. Our winter forecast will be airing on 41 Action News Thursday night at 10 PM.

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There is actually a chance of another small snowfall with this developing pattern. Right now, a very positively tilted storm is forming south of KC, and on the upper right map you can see it organize into a strong upper level storm that may bring some snow to eastern Missouri early Thursday.  There are many other developments in this pattern that we are monitoring closely as well and on Saturday evening a system may be able to produce this below:

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A quick blog today.  Yesterday about wiped me out. I had no sleep. I was up monitoring for the very disturbance that brought us our snowfall yesterday.  I had anticipated that it would happen, and I was up looking for the feature that I thought could bring us yesterdays snow. It wasn’t until around 4 AM when I finally saw the system spin out of southern KS and it produced. I was pleased with the results, and it was a fun weather day.

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It will be sunny today. Have a great Tuesday and we will look ahead tonight on 41 Action News.

Gary

A Snowy Morning In Kansas City

Good morning bloggers,

I was up all night monitoring this interesting development, and the snow has finally made it all the way up to I-70 and it is still expanding a bit farther north.  This time, temperatures are below freezing and it will stick to just about everything.  The road temperatures were just below 32 degrees, so this may cause some slick driving conditions for the morning rush hour.

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I drew in the likely northern edge for accumulations.  Areas to the south will likely approach 2″ of snow, while the KC metro will range from a dusting to 2″ of snow possible.  This will be a quick blog this morning until we get through the morning hours.  Watch 41 Action News for more, and check my Facebook and Twitter feeds for quick updates, or in the blog comments at Weather2020.com.

And, then look at the radar an hour and fifteen minutes later, at 7:15 AM:

Screen Shot 2018-11-12 at 7.11.16 AM

The snow was increasing early this morning in response to a wave of energy breaking off of the developing storm system.  The storm is shearing out and the snow will fall apart this afternoon.  This means we will get around six more hours of snow first.  The snowflake contest may end this morning.

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Have a great start to Monday and provide yourself with some extra time this morning for travel.  Our winter forecast will be issued Thursday night on 41 Action News.

Gary

Snow Likely Tonight

Happy Veterans day bloggers,

Thank you to all the veterans for your service.

We are tracking a large and wet storm system that will affect the southern Plains today through Monday. The northern edge will affect the I-70 corridor tonight into Monday. There will be a range of weather conditions across the area, so let’s go through the next couple of days.

WEATHER TIMELINE: It is looking dry through 5 PM. So, the weather looks good for the Chiefs and Sporting KC game. We will see a mix of rain and snow move in between 5 PM and 8 PM. Roads will likely stay damp to wet as temperatures stay above freezing. Then, after 8 PM snow is likely. Northern Missouri may stay dry. Temperatures will drop to the 20s, so any untreated surfaces will gradually become icy.

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SUNDAY THROUGH 5 PM: It will be dry with highs 40°-45°. The clouds will increase and thicken as a mix of rain and snow move in from the west. This keeps it dry for the Chiefs and Sporting KC games.

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SUNDAY 5-10 PM: We will see the mix of rain and snow move in. The KC area and points to the southwest will see snow with rain to the south. Notice, how northern Missouri is staying dry as it looks like they will get missed. In the precipitation areas, roads will be mostly wet to damp as long as temperatures stay at or above 32°. North facing surfaces may have slick spots as these surfaces receive no sunlight this time of year and they are colder. This really holds true in this case as we have been so cold, and these north surfaces will have a hard time warming. Decks, overpasses and patches of other surfaces will start to get slick.

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10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY: We will see areas of snow linger and shift south as temperatures drop into the mid and upper 20s. Untreated surfaces will become increasingly slick.

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MONDAY: Areas of snow will be possible along and south of I-70 during the morning. Then, during the afternoon the snow will shift south as we have another cold blast. Highs will be 30°-35° with wind chill values in the teens.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: The heaviest snow will occur in the west and southwest Plains. We are on the northeast edge of the main accumulating snow.

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The Texas panhandle will receive 4″ to 8″ of snow. This means Amarillo, TX will have its first measurable snow since February of 2017.

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As it stands now we will see a dusting to 1″ on mostly grassy surfaces. If the band is heavier tonight than we are forecasting. If it is colder this evening than we are forecasting. If it snows more tomorrow than we are forecasting, then you can add 1/2″ to 1″ to these totals. It still looks like, no matter the details, that northern Missouri will stay dry.

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Have a great week ahead. Highs will come close to 60° by Thursday.

Jeff Penner

More Snow Before the Weekend is Over?

Good Saturday bloggers,

The low this morning was 9°. Let’s put this into perspective. The record low was 19° and the average low is 37°. The average high is 56°. So, we are running close to 30° below average.

Now we turn our attention to the next chance of precipitation. A large, wet storm system will be forming in the southern Plains Sunday. As the storm is forming we may get in on a northern extension Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a trend towards our area seeing a period of snow, possibly starting as a mix with rain.

Let’s go through this changing forecast.

SATURDAY: It will be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 30s. A south wind of 10-20 mph will keep wind chills in the teens and 20s.

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TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING: It will be dry and not as cold with lows in the 20s to around 30°. However, a south wind of 10-20 mph will keep wind chills in the teens.

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SUNDAY NOON: The Chiefs kickoff at noon, and Sporting KC begins at 2 PM. Right now it looks dry for the Chiefs kickoff with temperatures rising to close to 40°.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: There is a data trend towards a mix of snow/rain or all snow to move in around 3 PM. Temperatures will be 35°-40°, so like the other day the roads will start off wet.

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SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT: The mix would quickly change to snow, peaking 7-10 PM. Two things to keep in mind.

1. Temperatures would likely be at or above freezing, so roads would be wet. Although, with surfaces a bit colder initially, there could be some slick spots after 4-5 PM. Lows Monday drop to 25°-30°, so if we have wet to damp roads, slick spots would be likely by Monday morning.

2. We are are at a 50-50 chance of this occurring as there is some data showing the precipitation well south. So, how far north will the precipitation shield travel? We will know more Sunday.

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Our snow chance is just the northern fringe of a huge and wet storm that will affect the southern USA Sunday-Monday and the east coast Tuesday. We will have a new cold blast Monday with clouds and wind chill values in the teens. So, again, how far north will the precipitation travel, before heading back south?

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Amarillo, TX has a chance to see 2″-5″ of snow and this is quite a story. It has been 634 days (February 14, 2017) since Amarillo received measurable snow!

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We have a chance to see a dusting to 1 ” on grassy surfaces. So, most likely the snowflake contest will continue through this next snow chance. Now, we have to watch this closely and we will know more Sunday.

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Have a great weekend and stay warm.

Jeff Penner

 

Windy & Cold With A Few Snow Showers

Good morning bloggers,

For me, it was quite disappointing, and I will get over it.  Many of you had the 1″ to 2″ of snow, and even a few spots had 4 to 5 inches just two to three counties to the south and southeast. The bands of heavier snow set up to the south and west of KC, and they never could pass some barrier as it approached downtown.  Here on the Plaza we had 0.3″ of snow, and that is almost a stretch. There was 0.3″ on the top of cars.  I am not a happy snow enthusiast this morning. It was a great snow to pack and make a snowman:

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How much snow did you get?  And, get ready for a windy day as a cold front will blast through here before noon with a few snow showers possible, and an increasing wind to 30 mph from the north.  Tonight, temperatures will drop to 15 degrees.

Have a great day!

Gary

Anticipation Is Building: 100% Chance Of Snow

Afternoon Update:

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Look at this large area of snow at around 1:30 PM.  How long has it been since we experienced anything like this? Now, we have some things to accomplish; 1) The ending of the snowflake contest on November 8th this year, and 2)  Getting three inches to accumulate to end an almost five year streak. The latter may be tough, as the first inch will melt and won’t count.  I still think we will end up with 1 to 3 inches on grassy surfaces, and 1″ or less on untreated pavement surfaces before this ends.  So, the snowflake contest is almost 100% certain to end this evening.  I am at work, just wanted to provide this update.  We will keep you updated on Facebook, twitter, and 41 Action News. I will try to update the blog later!

Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

There is a 100% chance of snow today!  Some spots may go over 2″ and approach 3 or 4 inches by midnight tonight.  Remember, it has now been almost five years since we had three inches of snow in one storm.  This streak most likely will continue after today, as it would have to fall at KCI Airport for that streak to continue.  We finally have some evidence of a bit more organization to this fast moving upper level storm today.

eta27hr_500_vrt

A few model runs have come in showing this main disturbance strengthening as it tracks across southern Kansas later today and tonight.  Do you know what PVA is?  PVA is Positive Vorticity Advection, and notice the colors around the X.  Vorticity is increasing from Kansas City into that X with a channel of PVA targeting our area later today and this evening. This is valid at 9 PM and between 6 PM and 9 PM is when we should get the most influence from this wave, and it may last all the way up until around midnight.  This is why the amounts have come up on some of the models again.  The European Model was the last model to come back into focus with snowfall, and the only reason that model had less, is that it has it near 41 degrees this afternoon.  The profile of the lower atmosphere is below freezing all the way up the morning. By this afternoon there will be a very thin layer of above 32° air near the surface.  The precipitation may start as rain, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts as mostly snow, unless it does surge to near 40.  The surface temperatures are something to monitor.

Snowfall Forecast:

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There is likely going to be a band of heavier amounts along the path of that X, the “Vort Max”.  Exactly where that location will be is still being monitored, seemingly targeting the south KC metro area. This could be in a different position, however, so let’s see if it begins showing up around 6 PM.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now-Noon:  Increasing clouds. It will stay dry.  High: 38°
  • Noon-3 PM:  Cloudy with rain, snow, or a mixture of precipitation developing and increasing from west to east.  It will be staying west of the state line until around 2 or 3 PM.  Temperatures in the middle to upper 30s
  • 3 PM-6 PM:  The mixture changes to snow and begins accumulating on grassy surfaces.  Temperatures dropping a few degrees but staying just above 32°. The roads will be wet and not slick yet, unless the snow begins coming down hard.
  • 6 PM-midnight:  Snow likely with a 1 to 2 inches likely. A few spots may get a bit more. Slick and hazardous conditions are possible as temperatures begin dropping to below freezing
  • Friday:  A few snow showers or graupel showers are possible.  Temperatures rising to a bit above freezing, then dropping Friday night into Saturday morning into the teens. Some slick spots are likely

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 blog

Have a great day.  Watch 41 Action News as we keep you updated.  The snowflake contest will likely end this evening.

Gary

The Historic Kansas City Snow Drought Is Still In Progress

Afternoon update:

The data continues to come in with mixed signals on snowfall totals. I have not identified an organized wave, so I am not convinced of any higher totals.  There may be a thin band that has amounts more the 2″, and we will identify this location by morning.

So, I would like you to let me know what you think of this graphic, before I show it on the air at 6 PM or 6:30 tonight. Do you like it? Does it help any?

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Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

As anticipation builds for our first snowflakes of the season for many of us, there is a lot to discuss.  Oh, yes, we already had the earliest accumulation in Kansas City’s history when 0.2″ fell on October 14th.  I did sort of see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain on the Plaza that evening, but it was definitely more like slush droplets.  We likely will not have to wait much longer as snow is in our forecast.  The question is how much? Will the snowflake contest come to an end?  And, is there any chance of ending this historic Kansas City Snow Drought?

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We are now just three months away from reaching five years in a row without even one 3″ snowstorm.  Some of the models have shown 3″ or more, while others have come in with less than an inch.  What I would like to see is more organization in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and it is something I am looking for with each model run that goes by. And, I still don’t see that strong organized wave, which makes any significant snow accumulation less likely.  Since our last 3″ snowstorm on February 7, 2014, almost five years ago, there have been 40 different snowfalls and only around 32″ of snow, for an average per snow of 0.8″.  If this average is reached on Thursday night, then the snowflake contest would continue.

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There has been a trend in the model for lower totals, and farther south.  Some of the models came in overnight with barely a dusting in some spots. This is what I showed last night.  On this map, that purple area indicated 1.5″ or higher.  The trend is down to lower numbers at the moment.  There are four to five more model runs to come in for a new trend to develop.

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Latest GFS Model:

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The latest GFS model shows anywhere from no snow accumulation to a grand total of just over an inch in spots.  Is it “here we go again”?  Why would this happen? Take a look:

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So, the trend is down. There is little organization on the latest models of any upper level disturbance that would give me higher confidence.  The snow drought continues, and the lack of a 3″ snowstorm streak will likely continue. It is only early November. Let’s see how this pattern continues to set up.

Have a great day and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:  Weather2020 blog

Gary

Election Day Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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It’s Election Day!  The US Constitution stated in Amendment XV, which was ratified by the states in 1870: “Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.”  Get out there and vote today!

The weather looks great over most of the nation so there should be a big turnout today.  Here is a look at the HRRR model valid at 6 PM today:

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This model shows a thin band of rain forming and right over KC.  There is a storm over southeast Canada, and snow over the northern plains.   Most of the nation will have a calm day, while here in KC we will see increasing clouds with the chance that this band of rain forms as a fast moving disturbance moves overhead.

And, then we will concentrate on this:

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f5weather-3

The models came in overnight with a continuation of showing some low accumulations of snow near KC. The two maps above are the GFS model first, then the European model second. These are snowfall totals ending Friday morning.  Both models have around 1/2″ to 2″ of snow in our area. Last night I went with a dusting to 2″.  Let’s see how the models come in today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds with a chance of rain later this afternoon.  High:  51°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and cooler. High: 45°
  • Thursday:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy.  Rain, snow, or a mixture is likely by evening.  The precipitation will change to snow before ending with a dusting to 2″ possible. High:  38°

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

Rain Today, Then A Taste of Winter Later This Week

Good morning bloggers,

What am I writing about today?  Are you serious?  I am actually still writing about a chance of snow this week and a winter blast of cold?  Yes, I am, and it is far from etched in stone on what is going to happen.  Before we get to our chance of any snow later this week, there is a disturbance moving across this morning.  Jeff Penner discussed how we had three systems to track, a couple days ago. Last year Kansas City would swing and miss at storm one, swing and miss at storm two, and then swing and miss on storm #3 and we would strike out. This happened many times in the 2017-2018 LRC.  Well, something very different has already happened and multiple times.  Earlier in October, when this pattern began, we didn’t just not swing and miss, we hit a grand slam home run with 10 to 15 inches of rain in the area. Then, we seemed to struggle to get our next storm to produce, and yet, right before our eyes  they have been producing on some positive level.  We did receive a little bit of rain over the weekend from storm #1, and here is storm #2 today below, with potential storm #3 due in Thursday.

Radar as of 7 AM:

RAD_KTWX_N0R

There is a disturbance near Salina, KS and it is heading in this morning. It is producing this nice area of rain.  So, get the raincoats out this morning, and the umbrellas ready. This will move through and then move east of the area this afternoon. Our attention will then shift to this:

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On this map, above, there is a ridge (the squiggly blue line I drew in). This ridge is a high amplitude ridge extending up to near the North Pole. There is also a wave of energy near Vancouver, Canada that we are monitoring closely.  If this wave of energy combines with new energy being generated around that big upper low over Canada, as it swings south, then conditions will become favorable for a cold precipitation event on Thursday afternoon and evening.

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By noon Thursday, above, you can see this wave of energy looking decent as Kansas City goes into southwest flow aloft.  In the past few years this would end up weaker and more phased into the flow, and the cold air would take over and we would get no snow in KC.  So, it is something to continue monitoring.  However, the way this 2018-2019 LRC has been setting up, this type of wave has been strengthening a bit as it approaches the KS/MO border, so this means I lean towards the precipitation event happening on Thursday. There will be other questions that need to be answered if this continues to show up, such as timing, possible amounts, and possible impacts?

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The FV3-GFS model shows this result valid at 6 PM Thursday. The Euro and other models are coming into line with this as well.  We still need to monitor the trends on the models today and by tomorrow as within 24 hours our confidence will grow just a bit on what may happen. Remember, the sun sets now closer to 5 PM, so if this map above is at all accurate, then the snow may be falling after sunset which provides a better chance of snowfall accumulation.   This map below shows one potential snowfall map, that seems to make sense, of 1 to 2 inches near KC.  This would be an incredible development for November in KC.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A 100% chance of rain this morning. Cloudy and cool with rain ending this afternoon.  0.10″ to 0.50″ possible today.  High:  50°
  • Tonight:  Clearing and cold. Low:  37°
  • Tuesday:  Sunny, then increasing clouds with a 50% chance of a few showers late.  High:  57°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and colder. High:  47°
  • Thursday:  Becoming cloudy with a 70% chance of a mixture of precipitation, changing to snow.  Some accumulation is possible during the early evening.  High:  37°

How about those KC Chiefs! They are now 8-1, and we have New England and the Chargers on our heals.  Big weeks ahead!  Have a great start to the week and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation: Weather2020 Blog

Have a great start to the week!

Gary

One System Down, Two to Go

Good Sunday bloggers,

We continue to track three storm systems. The first one will exit today, but not before we have drizzle and a few showers this morning. The second system will affect Monday and the third system will affect Thursday. This third system is most interesting.

You can see all three systems on the satellite.

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This first system extends north-south about 1150 miles from Lake Superior to south Texas. We are on the southwest side of the main system and we are seeing drizzle and a few showers rotating into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be gone as the clouds linger. It will be breezy from the west at 10-20 mph with temperatures in the 40s.

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MONDAY MORNING: Storm system #2 will already have an effect as areas of light to moderate rain move in from the west. This rain may very well affect the morning rush hour. Lows will be 40°-45°.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Drizzle and scattered showers will linger with highs stuck in the 40s. We are expecting a new .10″ to .25″ with this system. A few locations may see .25″ to .50″. This system is a fast mover and will exit by Election Day.

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ELECTION DAY MORNING: It will be mostly clear and dry with lows 35°-40°. The wind will be west at 5-15 mph.

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ELECTION DAY AFTERNOON: We will have great voting weather with highs in the 50s, a west wind 5-15 mph and areas of high clouds.

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Now we turn our attention to Thursday and storm system #3. We are going to show two different solutions and actually this first one is in the minority.

It will be cold enough to support snow Thursday. So, the questions are, “will there be a storm system to generate snow?” And, if there is a storm system, “where will it track?” All the data seems to have the storm system. But there are varying opinions on the track.

This solution has  a smaller system that tracks south of I-70.

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This solution has a much bigger storm system and widespread snow as you can see. It is this second solution that is actually in the majority. It is four days out and still so much can change. Stay Tuned!

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner