Strange weather day!

Good evening bloggers,

Do you remember the day when snow fell in a band from north to south right over the KC metro area, I believe it was February 19th?  Today reminds me of that day as north to south bands of thunderstorms developed. Here is the first one that formed early this morning and by 9:11 AM it was producing torrential downpours from downtown KC to Overland Park, KS, and southwest to western Linn County.

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Just three hours later a new band developed and literally formed right over the stadium complex. This rain came down heavily and the Royals game was delayed around 90 minutes.  Here is that radar from 1:30 PM:

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And, here are the rainfall amounts from around the area:

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Today’s weather was really a strange set-up with north flow aloft east of a weakening ridge aloft.  What happens next is going to be quite interesting as well.  The monsoon disturbance that came out of Mexico, tracked across Arizona, turned east across Wyoming, and now is turning southeast towards KC, will bring us a chance of thunderstorms again Friday into Friday night. A piece of this storm may break off and stall over Missouri and this could impact the weekend forecast.

1The main jet stream is going through a gradual transition as fall approaches.  There is a trough moving our way, and I show it in the dashed black line.  This is the 500 mb level, around 18,000 feet up above us. We use this level to track storm systems. This trough is going to be interesting to track on Friday into Saturday. The latest models have trended towards the southern extension of this system to break off and possibly drift across Missouri. This would impact the weekend, and it is something I will be trying to describe on the air tonight at 10 PM.

2You can see this pattern in transition on this next map on the right. The first map on the left was from 7 AM Friday, and this second map is valid later Saturday.  The main jet stream is forecast to intensify over the Gulf of Alaska and off the west coast. The heights are rising over much of the United States. As this pattern changes from hour to hour, it is messing with the National Hurricane Center’s forecast of Tropical Storm Erika.  Where will that storm go, and what will happen to the piece that may or may not break off over Missouri this weekend. If it separates, then we will have a chance of thunderstorms continuing into the weekend.

Have a great evening!  How about those Kansas City Royals!

Gary

Chance of Thunderstorms

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We are enjoying yet another very nice summer day with highs in the low 80s along with low humidity.  We have been talking about and tracking a storm system since Monday.  Right now it is over Utah as it comes north from the southwest summer monsoon.  This storm will turn east and be in western Nebraska by Wednesday morning.  It will move into Iowa by Friday morning.  It appears most of the rain will occur across Nebraska and Iowa.

WEDNESDAY SATELLITE:  The storm is over western Utah and will be turning east tonight.

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THURSDAY MORNING: There will likely be an area of thunderstorms to the west and northwest of KC during the morning.  This will be caused by warm/moist air trying to return north.  The showers and thunderstorms will have a hard time moving east into KC as the air will be more stable further east.  We will have to nowcast the progress of the rain tomorrow morning.  The area of rain will likely fall apart by noon, leading to a partly cloudy and dry Thursday afternoon.

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FRIDAY MORNING: There will likely be new thunderstorms across Iowa, southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri as the storm system approaches.  Again, these will have a hard time moving southeast as the main storm tracks north.  This will be another nowcast situation.

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FRIDAY EVENING: The best chance of rain for areas from KC south and east may occur Friday evening and night as a weak cold front/trough come south.  After the chance of rain Friday night, it looks dry for 5-7 days as a ridge builds in.  So, actually it would be nice to see some rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This is our latest thinking.  The heaviest rain will likely occur north of I-80, north of the main storm track.  Then, south of I-80 there will be those clusters of thunderstorms, but exact location and how far south are still questions that will have to be dealt with day by day.

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Jeff

Terrific Tuesday, Wonderful Wednesday

Good Tuesday bloggers,

This great summer weather will last through Wednesday, then we track a change.  First lets discuss the great weather.

TUESDAY WEATHER SET UP:  High pressure will continue to dominate as it sits over southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.  Highs will range from the 70s in Iowa to near 90° in western Kansas.  90° is not that hot for western Kansas at the end of August.

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WEDNESDAY WEATHER SET UP:  The nice weather will continue as high pressure remains overhead.  The heat will build across the western Plains with a few readings close to 100°.  Our area will stay in the low 80s.

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ROYALS FIRST PITCH FORECAST:  It will be another near perfect weather night for baseball.  Temperatures will be in the 70s with a 4 mph wind at first pitch.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING:  We are in for another comfortable start with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.  It will be 1-2 degrees warmer than Tuesday.

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NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS:  We are tracking a system that will be near Salt Lake City Wednesday evening.  This system is coming out of the southwest summer monsoon.  The data takes this system to Nebraska by Thursday and Iowa by Friday.  Since, this system is up north, most of the rain will occur along and north of I-80.  There will be the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across Kansas and Missouri Thursday and Friday.  These will be caused by warmer and more humid air returning north (mostly Thursday morning) and a weak cold front heading south from the system.  The KC area will see anywhere from nothing in locations to possibly a .25″ to 1″ in locations.  We will know more in 1-2 days.

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SUMMARY OF THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK:  The best chance is Thursday morning and Friday.  The chance Thursday morning is caused by warm/moist air returning north.

 

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Have a great day.

Jeff

Beautiful Weather

Good Monday bloggers,

The weather is about as good as it gets for this time of year.  Lows are in the 50s, highs are around 80° along with abundant sunshine and a light wind.

LOWS TODAY: The low was 50° in KC, 2 degrees from  a record.  St. Joseph dropped to 46° and Valentine, NE dropped to 39°.

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MONDAY WEATHER SET UP:  A large surface high pressure is located over Kansas.  This puts us in light west to northwest winds, keeping the humidity low and the sun shining.

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LOWS TUESDAY:  It will be another refreshing morning with lows in the 50s.  A few spots will see lows in the 40s, especially northeast of KC.

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TUESDAY WEATHER SET UP:  The high pressure splits into two pieces, still keeping the great weather around.

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NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS:  Tomorrow there will be a disturbance, related to the southwest monsoon, over Arizona.  This system will track north to Wyoming by Wednesday then east into Nebraska and Iowa Thursday and Friday.  This will bring our next chance of thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.  The heaviest rain may fall along I-80, but we should see some here.  We will update this in the coming days.

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After this system, next weekend is looking mostly dry, warm and humid.

Have a great week and enjoy this weather!

Jeff

Leave a message, we’ve gone fishin’

Spoke about it in the blog on Friday: the storm chance for Saturday night was low. As it turned out, some didn’t even see a drop. After a little bit of hype from others, it turned out where the atmosphere was capped off and the front simply moved in a way where the storms just could not realize their potential. The geek speak for all of that? It didn’t storm, it wasn’t the doom & gloom some were screaming for. The rain amounts were pretty wimpy:
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After clouds this morning, we had a great afternoon for the KC Air Show. The Blue Angels were the highlight, for sure. I managed to capture a few shots from our Skyview cameras.
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All right, I suppose I should talk about the weather: It’ll be nice this week. Thanks for readings, that’s all. ….
Fishing

Okay, fine, more details. There will be a weak ridge in the middle of the atmosphere that will help keep our weather pretty calm.
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We’ll be just enough in that bubble to keep the sky mostly sunny and the temperatures near 81°, give or take a couple degrees. Even the overnight lows will be quite comfortable, in the 50s. Your electric bills will thank you.

I do not see this really changing until about Friday. A warm front should sweep through and that will bring us a chance for rain and a few t-storms. But hey, that’s still six days away. Let’s enjoy the tranquil weather this week. Should be GREAT for anyone heading out to watch the Royals. I know I’ll be there!
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Enjoy the week ahead!
-JD