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Heavy Rain & Flooding Potential

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • This morning: A few showers and thunderstorms staying below severe levels. A few heavy downpours and cloudy skies.  Temperatures will be tropical in the 70s.
  • This afternoon:  Heating up with high humidity.  High:  85°
  • Tonight:  A chance of a strong line of thunderstorms with very heavy rain possible between 7 and 10 PM.

A few areas of thunderstorms have greeted the plains on this August 16th morning.  The largest complex of thunderstorms was over north central Kansas and was a Mesoscale Convective System showing some organization. This will track east this morning and then weaken.  After this goes by, there will likely be enough time for the atmosphere to destabilize ahead of a developing frontal system and summer storm.

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There is another potential heavy rain event setting up near KC.  There are a few factors that may come together this evening to place some areas near Kansas City to have over 3″ of rain, and the areas that get that much would likely experience some flooding. Anything more than 3″ would increase the risk of a flooding event.

  • Ingredient #1: Low level moisture. We once again have high levels of moisture available from the Gulf of Mexico. The Dew Points are forecast to be reaching the middle to upper 70s as we approach sunset
  • Ingredient #2:  A cold front will slowly move in from the west and will likely be the focusing mechanism for the heavy thunderstorms this evening
  • Ingredient #3:  A series of weak upper level disturbances in a rare summer pattern. There is an upper level trough swinging out over the plains today

Concern:  We must monitor the morning showers and thunderstorms as it may very well affect the late day set-up.  We will know more as we move into the late afternoon hours. Let’s take a look.

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The front will be approaching Kansas City this evening and the humidity will once again become rather extreme and pool along and ahead of this front. This will provide the fuel for potential very heavy rainfall. The front should move fast enough to keep amounts from getting out of control, but we have to monitor this very closely as it develops this evening.

Todays Severe Weather Risk:

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The main severe weather types expected will be some marginally large hail on the first thunderstorms that form, and possibly some damaging winds. Lighting will help cause some power outages, and flooding is the main risk today.

The weather pattern will calm down significantly tomorrow as you can see on this forecast map below.

1Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Weather Pattern.  You can leave a comment here or join in the conversation over on Weather2020.com.  Have a great day. Let’s see how this evolves today.

Gary

Thunderstorms In The Wednesday Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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Minimal Hurricane Gert with 74 mph winds at its center is tracking harmlessly out to sea over the Atlantic Ocean. You can see Gert on this surface analysis that is valid Wednesday morning, below:

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We have another rather interesting summer set-up across the plains states that is in the development phase today. By early Wednesday morning, as you can see above, there is another interesting frontal system tracking over the plains states. A surface trough extends from near the USA/Canada border south to west Texas. A rather weak warm front, but it is still obvious in the isobars, is forecast to extend from near Salina, KS east southeast to northern Tennessee.  A cold front will be developing as well. I can likely be analyzed on this surface map, but it isn’t obvious so I left it off. That surface trough will become the cold front by evening, or part of it will become the cold front.  High levels of low level moisture are available for this system and rainfall rates in the slow moving thunderstorms could be 2″/hour or greater. This will  likely result in a few spots getting up to 3″ of rain if it rains for more than an hour or two in your location.

Let’s see how the morning data comes in and we will monitor and share this with you on the Weather2020 blog and social media.  Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

One Week From The Eclipse

Good morning bloggers,

We are now one week away from the Total Eclipse of the sun that will be tracking across the United States.  Our human brains have a problem in trying to convince ourselves that if you are just outside the total eclipse path, then it will be just about the same as if you are in the total eclipse path.  In other words, if you were in Overland Park, KS and the eclipse was 99.8%, it would be easy to think that it is just about the same as if you were in North Kansas City where totality is reached, or in Liberty, MO where the totality lasts for around 2 minutes.  According to astronomers and what I have  read about it, the difference is huge. Why? The sun is 10,000 times brighter than the moon, so that little sliver of sunlight prevents the stars from being seen, from making it  seem like night for that brief period of time.  It is hard to get our minds around that 0.1% difference. Believe me, I am struggling with it myself.  It will still be fascinating, I am certain of that, but the difference would be worth going a bit farther north into the path of totality.

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Now, meteorology is in play big time.  Will the sky be clear next Monday afternoon? There will likely be spots where clouds affect the viewing experience.  Here is the map we posted 55 days before the eclipse using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis:

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We used knowledge of the cycling pattern to make this prediction and the pattern continues to cycle regularly centered near that 58.5 day range (56-61 days).  Here is the latest GFS model simulated IR satellite forecast.  This does not show well where cumulus clouds will be forming, so we will know a lot more in the next few days:

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We will monitor this closely as we get closer to eclipse day.  As meteorologists and weather forecasters we can make our predictions, and we will do quite well, but to forecast what happens during the two minutes of totality near the center of the eclipse path will be quite difficult in a few spots.  Today, we started with a complete overcast sky in KC. By early next week the pattern will potentially more dominated by a developing anticyclone:

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There is also an easterly wave forecast to be heading into the Gulf of Mexico from the east. Remember, Weather2020 also forecasted that the pattern would be favorable for a developing tropical system in the Gulf around Eclipse Day. The latest European Model has a full blown tropical storm/hurricane in the southern Gulf next week.  Let’s see if this does indeed show up.  It could be a factor, but perhaps just after eclipse day?

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Tropical Storm Gert can be seen way off the east coast by Wednesday morning. And, there is a front approaching from the northwest with thunderstorms over Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas by Wednesday morning. Let’s see how this sets up tonight and tomorrow.

Have a great day and thank you for participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

Will It Be Another Wetter Second Half?

Good Sunday evening bloggers,

Thank you for being patient, as we have only missed a day or two without a blog entry one or two times in 15 years. I just got back from Table Rock Lake, a great trip. You will have to go to my Facebook page and see Sunny’s new task 0f rescuing people from the water.  In today’s blog I am just posting one map showing the European Model solution for Wednesday. Are we about to have another wetter second half to a month. It has happened in every month but April, and that was close.

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Have a great day! I will write up a full blog tomorrow.

Gary

The Fascinating Cycling Weather Pattern

Happy Friday morning bloggers,

We will be introducing you to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and our discussion continues on the Weather2020 blog. If you have any questions or thoughts on today’s topics, then go over there and join in the conversation as we share in this fun and educational weather experience.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Friday: Incredibly nice weather for mid-August.  Sunny with a light northeast wind at less than 10 mph.  High:  81°
  • Friday Night:  Clear and pleasant with light winds, calm most of the night. Low:  61°
  • Saturday:  Sunny with winds around 5 mph to calm.  Another incredibly nice summer day. High:  81°
  • Sunday:  A few clouds with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High:  79° with light east winds.

The Cycling Weather Pattern

In this late week blog I am going to share with you where we are in the cycling weather pattern. It is absolutely fascinating.  I believe that you will fall into one of three main groups. Either you are a complete skeptic and you believe it is complete chaos in the upper levels of the tropospheric circulation, which is where we experience weather on this earth.  99.9% of weather happens within the troposphere which extends from the air you are breathing now all the up to around 60,000 to 70,000 feet in the warm season and around 30,000 feet in the cold season.  The second group may actually believe that we have stumbled across something rather ground breaking in science, in atmospheric science, but you may not believe we can get as specific in our forecasts, but may feel there is some merit to what we are doing and sharing with you. Then, there is likely a third group who absolutely believes that the pattern is cycling as described by our Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  In this third group you actually have experienced the accuracy of our forecasts, some of our inaccurate forecasts, and have tried to see this big puzzle that exists above us.  This is, of course, what our Weather2020 team not just believes, but sees.  Meteorologist Doug Heady, who works in the Joplin television market as the Chief Meteorologist at KOMA has been using his knowledge of the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH) to make his month long forecasts on the air for many years.  He sees the answers to the puzzle.  Meteorologist Brett Anthony has been using his knowledge of the CPH for many years and there have been so many viewers in the Tulsa market who have experienced his “uncanny” accuracy on predicting Tulsa’s seasonal snow totals for years and his forecasts of when storm systems will strike. Eswar Iyer, a graduate student who is getting his Masters of Science degree from the University of Oklahoma this fall has been using the CPH for the better part of six years in making forecasts for businesses that have used our Weather2020 forecasts.  Jeff Penner has worked with me for 25 years now. I introduced this to him when we first met, and here we are 25 years later and the scientific world has yet to understand or even know about the CPH, also known as the LRC.  Bob Lyons, our Chief Technology Officer, in coordination with myself and Jeff, has developed a weather model that has been at its best during the January through March time frame. We are currently working on various adjustments, revisions, to the model to make it more accurate and this is just scratching the surface.  Jeff Hutton, National Weather Service DDC, says he remembers me discussing this with him while we were in college, but I firmly remember the year that I saw the true answer to this puzzle, to what others think is just chaos in the river of air flowing above us. It was in the year 1987-1988 when Oklahoma City had two one foot snow storms, and many other major storms that season. It was the second one foot snow storm in January of 1988 that I realized that the storm at the 500 mb level was awfully similar to the storm from early December.  Two one foot snow storms in a place that averages around 7 or 8 inches of snow per year. How is that possible? There is only one way bloggers. It is possible if the “same” pattern was cycling regularly with predictability if you know a few things about that weather pattern.  Gary England, retired KWTV Chief Meteorologist, said to me as a storm system was approaching OKC in 2009-2010 winter, “I saw it.  Lezak, I saw it, but now I can’t find it again”. It is that complex.  Gary England, who is our Senior Advisor for Weather202o, saw the CPH for around a week, but then couldn’t find the puzzle again. It is really, truly, that complex.

Okay, now open your mind to this.  And, for those of you reading this for the first time you can go back into the past year snd see dozens of examples that showcase this years pattern.  I presented, at the American Meteorological Society’s Broadcast conference in June, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. This will be in our peer review paper that is begin submitted this year for scientific acceptance and review.  The pattern has been shown to be cycling in the 56-61 day range, centered on the very important 58-59 day period, or 58.5 day cycle.  We have shown all of the qualitative analysis with map descriptions, but now we have the scientific quantification which verifies and validates what we have done with the “art” of being able to see the pattern, to “see” the answer to the puzzle. The “scientific” or mathematical method does indeed verify and validate what we have been sharing with you for years. This years pattern, that set up on the fall, has been clearly shown to be in the 58 to 59 day range. The mathematical, statistical analysis now validates that the most likely cycle length is exactly what we have seen and shown with the map analysis.

Looking at the pattern this week:

Cycle 6 August 9

Cycle 2 December 17

We showed the Cycling pattern and shared our insight with Dr. Howie Bluestein, a year and half ago. He said, “you have convinced me”, but now we need to do a statistical analysis to verify. And, he said, “I just have never thought about this. I never have thought about a pattern past a few days”. This is why there is so much skepticism, and why our peer review paper is so important and essential for getting this technology out to the world.

Now look at these two maps above.  How is it possible that a pattern from December could be similar to a pattern from August. And, not just similar, but as our Weather2020 team of meteorologists, Jeff, Brett, Eswar, Doug, and I would tell, you, “it isn’t just similar, it’s the “same”. As Gary England said, “It’s the same, but different”, if that makes sense. Sure, it’s different. There has to be seasonal difference.  Now, look again at the two maps.  I numbered the features that are “the same, but different”.  This part of the pattern has now cycled through six times. But, something very new will begin evolving in five to six weeks. Yes, the new CPH will set up, and it will be a pattern that has never happened in the history of the earth. This is one of the aspects of the CPH. Every pattern is unique. And, it can go from the Synoptic, to the Meso, to the Micro scale.  We have shown many examples of each. By going down to the “meso” and “micro” scales our Weather2020 team has the ability to make the forecasts as specific as down to a series of dates, and many times down to the date even 200 days out. There is an unfortunate limitation to forecasting using the CPH. The new, unique pattern will set up in the fall. Since we do not know what it is in October, there is one gray area that lasts around six to eight weeks. but, by December, or at the latest January we will once again know what the pattern is and our forecasts become incredibly accurate from January through September.

What is happening now? The big ridge in feature #5 is right on schedule, but there is a seasonal twist to the August version of the cycling pattern. I firmly expected the ridge to be dominating August over the middle to southern part of the United States, but instead in this cycle 6 version the ridge is forming way up over Canada and this seasonal difference is creating the conditions for heavy thunderstorm complexes over parts of the plains as the flow is cutting underneath the ridge.  So, instead of summer heat over middle America, we are getting a cooler air mass with these thunderstorm complexes, one of which I am experiencing early this morning near the Arkansas/Missouri border.  The ridge is having a big impact on the Pacific northwest this month.

What is happening now?

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Feature #5 in the two first two maps show the ridge that was there in December and it is impacting now. How is it impacting. The National Weather Service has a rather large Air Quality Alert out for the Pacific Northwest that has had a major heat wave  that was predictable by using the CPH.  Features one to four on those two maps are directly responsible for the conditions for the two Supercells with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings over Kansas.  This rare August set-up is directly related to the pattern that cycled through just before the first day of winter.

Take a look at the forecast HRRR for 4 AM tonight:

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Those Supercell thunderstorms will be monitored closely, as this is the beginning of what the HRR model is showing for later tonight. If this is correct, then I may want to get to bed a bit early on my vacation at Table Rock Lake.  These thunderstorms would be “blasting” through just before sunrise. I will let you know what happens.

The winter that brought this region practically nothing, has had a summer that has surrounded Kansas City with drier conditions, and yet some spots have been wet with some major flooding. What happens next? This weekend will will be close enough to see if the models have a clue on the cycling pattern for the eclipse that will be within ten days.

Have a great weekend and thank you for participating in this weather forecast experience on the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

Wednesday Evening T-Storms

Good evening bloggers,

I am down at Table Rock Lake where we may have thunderstorms tomorrow of early Friday.  The weather down here is fantastic and I will share with you a rather interesting picture at the end of this blog. For the KC metro area, we are again on the edge of a developing area of thunderstorms and once again the south side has a better chance in the next few hours.

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The radar image above shows the areas of showers and thunderstorms on this interesting August 9th day.  One of the areas is near KC as you can see on this zoomed in picture from around 4 PM this afternoon:

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A few thunderstorms were intensifying late this afternoon and evening with the target area for the heaviest thunderstorms circled in white.  For the Sporting KC game at Children’s Mercy Park it appears there may be a few showers but the heaviest thunderstorms will most likely develop and track south and east through that zone.

This weather pattern continues to be rather fascinating for what is often a boring time of the year. It has been anything but boring.  Thank you for your participation in the Action Weather blog featuring the Cycling Pattern Hypotheses and Weather2020.  We will look ahead in the next few blogs.

So, here I am at the lake. As interesting as it may be that I am in the air at 55 years old, it is more fascinating seeing 11 year old Gabe seemingly walking on water, and can you see Sunny. Sunny The Weather Dog is trying to save everyone.

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Gary

The Cool August Pattern Continues

Good morning bloggers,

IMG_0476

IMG_0482Sunny & I got out early this morning to get some pictures of the sunrise and the moonset, which happen nearly at the same time when there is a full moon. How is the corn doing?  How are the soybeans?  As you can see here, the corn fields on 135th street near Mission Road are looking about as good as I have ever seen.  Yesterday, by the way, Sunny went after a rabbit. The rabbit ran under the fence. Sunny didn’t see the fence and she smashed into it.  She got a bruise right below her eye, but she will be just fine.  Today, we are heading down to Table Rock Lake. It does appear there will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday down there.  Today, however, the weather is outstanding.  On the surface map, as you can see below, high pressure is again building over the plains in response to this cycling weather pattern. Where is the summer heat? A big ridge is forming way up into Canada. We did expect this to happen, but I thought it would be a huge closed off anticyclone. Instead, in this version of the pattern it is a big ridge that is allowing for Great Lakes troughs to dive south and create these surface highs with our potential thunderstorms through the plains, and over the eastern states.

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How is this the same pattern? Well, take a look at these two maps, and watch the video I made this morning:

Cycle 6 on August 6th:

Cycle 6 August 6

Here is the pattern 234 days earlier, or exactly on cycle at 58.5 X 4.  This is December 15th. Just add in a bunch of lines and you can see the same pattern. There is a lot more energy in the flow on December 15th:

Cycle 2 December 15

Here is the video that will put it together for you:

 

The Cycling Weather Pattern In August from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Let us know if you have any questions. I will be on the road today and the next blog may come later in the day on Wednesday. Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Click on the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.

Gary

Wet or Dry? It depends on where you live!

Good morning bloggers,

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An active pattern continues. This is quite unusual for early August and we have been setting some record lows. In Kansas City it dropped to 52 degrees Friday morning.  This record cool air mass set the stage for the heavy rain event that was about to happen one day later, and then Saturday the cooler air was trapped and KC had a record low high for the date, and the coolest first week of August high temperature ever recorded.  There have been a couple of days in the past in the second half of the month, but to have it in the first few days of August is actually a very difficult thing to do, to have a high of 65 degrees.

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Here is the surface map I plotted on Saturday afternoon:

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Isn’t it amazing that the heavy rain target I drew in was also the center of the coolest air?   It was 102 in Alva, OK at the same time it was 63° in Overland Park, KS.  And, then this happened just a few hours later:

August 5-6 Rain Wide

Even more amazing than the 10″ of rain that fell is the fact that only 0.10″ fell, or really almost no rain fell to the northeast in the shadow of this heavy rain event. This has been happening most of this season.

Rainfall since June 1:  

  • Overland Park, KS:  21.66″ (Since July 1:  16.22″)
  • Saint Joseph, MO:  4.72″  (Since July 1:  1.95″)
  • Omaha, NE:  4.46″  (Since July 1:  1.32″)
  • Des Moines, IA: 4.23″  (Since July 1:  1.89″)
  • Saint Louis, MO:  4.23″  (Since July 1:  1.39″)

Wow!  Kansas City is wet in the middle of a dry pattern?  Well, these stats show that well.  This was a map ending last week. The new one will be posted in a few minutes:

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This pretty much confirms my point as you can see the one small area that is wet near KC.

Tropical Storm Franklin formed just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  This will likely not have enough time to form into a hurricane.

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We will look into this weeks pattern on 41 Action News and in the blogs this week.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and we are having some great conversations over on the Weather2020 blog. You can go over there and join in!

Gary

Another Heavy Rain Event & The Cycling Pattern

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

Jeff Penner and I just measured 4.78″ of rain here on the Plaza. I measured 3.05″ at my place in Overland Park. Wow! And, once again there were spots that got missed. St. Joseph officially had 0.21″ of rain from the entire event.  The same spots keep getting hit, and the same spots that have been missed keep getting missed.  Our weather team has been using our knowledge of the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and other weather forecast tools and methods to accurately make predictions for these big rainfall events.

Here are the radar estimated totals from this last big rain event.  Remember, these are radar estimates, so your rain gauge will very likely read differently.

The heaviest rain in Kansas City occurred from Bonner Springs to Lee’s Summit with amounts 4″ to 7″.  Despite these high rainfall totals, we avoided a major flood catastrophe as the rain ended midnight to 2 AM.  If it ended 2 AM to 4 AM we could have had some big issues around the city as creeks and streams were at their brink by 2 AM.  The other reasons we avoided a huge flood mess  is that the rainfall rate was just a shade less than the event from July 26-27 and the rain, overall occurred over a longer period of time.  It was just enough to avoid a major Indian Creek flood.

August 5-6 Rain South KC

The northern part of Kansas City received 2″ to 3″, except northeast Clay county that saw .25″ to 1″.  These seem like smaller amounts, but remember the whole month of August average is 3.89″ of rain

August 5-6 Rain North KC

These rainfall totals will not seem small.  Look at these amounts from south of Warrensburg to around Osage Beach, 8″ to nearly 11″!

August 5-6 Rain South MO

When you look at the state of Missouri, amounts ranged from 10″-11″ in the Ozarks to none-.10″ in northern sections.  This is why giving us a hard time on the forecast may be fun, but frankly, it is a waste of time.  We did quite well forecasting this event with a 2-3 day lead time.

August 5-6 Rain Wide

Now, what is next?  Let’s go through the week ahead.

Today will see lots of clouds, but the rain is over and any showers in northern MO will end.  Most of the rain will move into Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.  Highs will be in the 70s.

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MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:  We will be tracking weak disturbances moving east out of the Rockies.  They will bring areas of showers and thunderstorm to the western Plains, but by the time they reach our area they will be reduced to producing clouds as a surface high pressure brings comfortable east to northeast winds. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s.  A few showers and thunderstorms may sneak in Tuesday night and Wednesday.

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THURSDAY-SATURDAY: These will be the days with our next chance of bigger thunderstorms.  It is too early to tell ff this will become an excessive event.

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How does this fit into the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? There are many of you out there thinking that we can not predict events like the one that happened last night in a forecast from weeks to months ago, but this is simply not true.  Here is what I wrote a few days ago.

We have just started the sixth cycle of this years weather pattern. A unique weather pattern sets up every fall according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  The pattern usually begins between the 5th and 10th of October. The pattern that sets up, then evolves, and becomes established during October and November. By December we can see and experience the pattern repeating. Incredibly, the pattern then continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and summer with a regular cycle.  This years cycle fell into the 56-61 day range centered on 58 to 59 days.  Let’s look at what happened around this week in each cycle:

  • Cycle 1, around October 13th:  Kansas City was close to having an early freeze on October 13th.  The low was 35 degrees with a high of 58. Just four days later it was 87 with a low of 71, then it was back down to 38 degrees on the 21st
  • Cycle 2, around December 11th (59 days later):  Kansas City had a low of 20 degrees with a high of 44.  It dropped to 13 on the 12th, and then to NINE DEGREES BELOW ZERO on the 18th.  2″ of snow fell on December 17th, 2 of the whopping 5.3″ of snow this past winter.
  • Cycle 3, around February 8th (59 days later):  The low was 15 degrees with a high of 27. IT WAS 69 degrees just two days later. INCREDIBLE warm up. And, we know how dry it was in February
  • Cycle 4, around April 8th (59 days later):  It was 34 degrees for a low on the 7th, then it warmed up to 77 degrees on the 8th, and then back down to 37 degrees  on the 11th
  • Cycle 5, around June 6th (59 days later):  It was 82 degrees with a low of 65, but wait a second.  It dropped to lows of 59, 58, and 56 degrees on the 7th-8th-9th
  • Cycle 6, around August 4th (59 days later):  It appears we will be in the 50s for lows again later this week which will be close to record lows.  Also, on Saturday we set a record for the coldest high on August 5th and we tied for the 5th coldest August high ever.

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What makes these cold period so amazing in this year’s CPH, is that they were somewhat extreme in a few of the cycles during what was otherwise a warm and snow-less winter.

We did not predict this event that just happened, but we could have done it by using the second cycle.  In the second cycle of this years pattern, during the December 11th to December 18th time frame, Kansas City had the coldest temperature of the season and our first inch of snow.  The temperature dropped to 9 below zero on the 18th of December. How will our forecast improve in the future by using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? We are actually doing it now and testing it  out by blending the cycles. The December results blended in would have been a strong indicator of thunderstorms during the first week of August and a near record cool period. We just set two record lows.  It was not forecast by our team, but we could have had it in there. As we learn more, these forecasts will only get better. We have a peer review paper that will be submitted to one of the top journals in weather science this year. We will be sharing this with the rest of our scientific community soon, and of course we have been sharing this with you for around 15 years now in this blog and in the Weather2020 blog.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary and Jeff

Flash Flood Watch

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in for a unique and rare August weekend of weather.  Eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be in a zone through Sunday morning where several rounds of thunderstorms will occur, training over some locations, which will cause areas of flash flooding.  Who will see the heaviest rain and best chance for flash flooding? Let’s go through the data.

Here is the weather time line for Saturday.  This is a two part event.  The first part is today where we will see periods of rain and thunderstorms with a low flash flood threat, although a few locations could see some minor flooding.  Also, it looks like between 1 PM and 6 PM the showers and thunderstorms will be scattered, so some locations could have several dry hours this afternoon.  It is after 6 PM when the thunderstorms really ramp up and training echoes become an issue.  The thunderstorm threat winds down Sunday morning after 5-8 AM.

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This is the Flash Flood Watch that is in effect through Sunday morning.  The affected areas are similar to the ones from the last event July 26-27.  “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN” as it only takes six inches of flowing water to lift a car/SUV off the road.

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There is also a slight risk of severe weather today and you can see Kansas and Missouri are the center of weather attention.

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The main threats are damaging wind and hail and also, the best chance of severe weather will be southern Kansas closer to the highest heat and humidity.

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Look at this set up for Saturday afternoon!  It is not a typical dog days of summer weather map.  Highs will be near 100° across southwest and south-central Kansas to Oklahoma.  Highs from Topeka to Kirksville will be in the 60s with a few locations in the 50s!  This sets up a zone, just north of the front, where thunderstorms will keep forming and tracking over the same locations.

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As we look closer in, it is hard to believe this is August and on average the hottest time of year.

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2 PM SATURDAY: The thunderstorms will become more scattered as the heat builds to the south and the energy in the atmosphere increases.

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6 PM SATURDAY: This is the time when we will be monitoring Weather Track Radar like a hawk.  The thunderstorms will begin to increase and it looks like they will be concentrating in similar locations to the last event July 26-27.  The thunderstorm increase may wait until after 8 PM, so we will be watching this closely.

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5 AM SUNDAY: The rounds of thunderstorms will be continuing.  After 5-8 AM the thunderstorms will be winding down and ending.  So, that is around 10-12 hours of repeating thunderstorms and the zone where the repeating sets up is where flash flooding will become a problem.  Below is our latest thinking of where the heavy rain zone will be located.

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LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST: Right now it looks like 3″ to 6″ of rain will occur from Lawrence to the “K” southeast to Louisburg, KS and Peculiar, MO and points south. Some locations in this zone may see 6″ to 9″!  Now, this being said, this is not totally set in stone as the zone may shift 20-40 miles north or south.  If the below forecast is right, then the same areas that received the flooding July 26-27 will see it again.

9-2

Have a great weekend and stay safe and dry.

Jeff Penner