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At Least It Is Raining, But, It Did Happen Again

Good morning bloggers,

A weakening area of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms was spinning across eastern Kansas early on this Monday morning.   Take a look:

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This rather large complex of rain and thunderstorms was weakening as it moved into KC.  It does appear it will hold together long enough to provide a nice drink of water for some of our lawns.  There may even be around 1/2″ to 1″ of rain in spots, so let me know how much you receive.  But, as I titled this blog, it happened again. “It” has happened almost every time there has been a chance of rain or snow since the end of October. I am not sure if there are any exceptions.  In my spring forecast I predicted 10″ of rain during May and June, and so fare we have had 5.47″ in May and 2.54″ in June, before todays rainfall.  This is why everything is still green, as we have had just barely enough.  There is another chance later today, but it appears that chance is going to shift way down to southwestern Missouri, and that is where I am heading today with Sunny The Weather Dog. I will be at Table Rock Lake later this afternoon, so the weather for that area appears to be much more exciting than for us farther north, and this has been going on all year long.

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This map above shows the surface set up valid at 7 PM this evening. There will be a weak surface low tracking across eastern Nebraska by this evening, and as you can see, somehow, someway, KC is once again not in the right spot to have the redevelopment of thunderstorms. Hopefully we get a good soaking this morning, and then there is another chance Tuesday night, but even that chance is trying to shift away from KC, because look at what happens by Wednesday and Thursday:

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog to share in this weather experience. Have a great day. Sunny and I leave later this morning for the lake. I am looking forward to getting away for  few days, and maybe actually experiencing a real thunderstorm for a change. It certainly looks like I may get one down there.

Gary

Several Chances of Thunderstorms, but this is 2018!

Good Sunday bloggers,

Well we had another night where large clusters of thunderstorms missed our area. They have been tracking from eastern Colorado to eastern Oklahoma, reducing drought conditions in those locations. We may see a few showers and thunderstorms today, but our best chance is later tonight.

Let’s go through our latest thinking.

Early Sunday morning we were tracking two waves of energy. One was located in northeast Oklahoma and this will bring clouds and perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms this morning to our area. The second wave was located in northwest Kansas. This wave will head east in a weakened state and affect our area this afternoon with more clouds and the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.

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Here is the Storm Prediction Center outlook for today as of 7 AM Sunday. The best chance of widespread severe weather will be in southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas and western Oklahoma. We are on the eastern edge of the slight risk with the timing of our threat, later tonight.

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SUNDAY 4 PM: It will be mostly calm around here with rain in southern Missouri. We may have a few showers and thunderstorms, but the focus for severe thunderstorm development will be in the southwest Plains where a warm and cold front are close together.

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SUNDAY EVENING: The main thunderstorms will be located over southwest Kansas. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will be possible out there. There may be a weaker extension to the east, along I-70, towards our area after 10 PM.

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TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT: This is when we have the best chance of thunderstorms as the main area tracks east and northeast. There will be a chance that these thunderstorms cause damaging winds and flash flooding.

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MONDAY MORNING: Rain and thunderstorms will be tracking northeast as they weaken. This still means a likely wet morning rush hour with standing water in places. Showers and thunderstorms may linger until noon.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Right now it looks like the best chance of new thunderstorms will be across central and eastern Missouri, but it depends on how things are left after the activity tonight.

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TUESDAY: The morning into the afternoon look dry as it becomes very warm and humid. Then, a new weak front and disturbance move in. Thunderstorms will likely form during the evening from eastern Kansas to northern Missouri. These would head south and have the chance to be severe with damaging winds and flash flooding the main threats.

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Rainfall in most locations, by Wednesday, should be 1″ to 2″ with a few locations seeing 2″-5″. The location of 2″-5″ rainfall amounts is yet to be determined as it is thunderstorm weather and the models do not do well with predicting bulls eyes of rain. Let’s hope your yard or farm receives the rain it needs. If you get missed by Wednesday, it looks hot and dry into the weekend and early next week.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

More Thunderstorm Chances, More of the Same?

Good Saturday bloggers,

I was on vacation in Colorado and a had a great time. I went whitewater rafting for the first time and zip lined over the Royal Gorge, my first time zip lining. It was also firsts for my wife and son. Skyler said this trip has changed him. #thistriphaschangedme. We had a blast!

Penner White Water

Penner Zip Line

When I was out there I know we had our first heat wave and then we had some thunderstorms, but once again they were falling apart as they moved through, so some locations did not see much rain. Officially, we are still close to 5″ below average rainfall for the year.

Today will be dry after a few morning sprinkles and light showers. The next chance of thunderstorms is for Sunday night into Monday and the data wants very badly to have it fall apart before it arrives.

We will show data from our in house computer model, the 6Z and 9Z Saturday data runs.  It is the same old thing as we are in the same old pattern.

6Z DATA FOR 11 PM SUNDAY: We will be tracking thunderstorms forming in western Kansas Sunday afternoon as a disturbance heads out of the Rockies. We will have a slight chance of thunderstorms around here during the day. This data has the large complex of thunderstorms making it to KC intact. This would be great.

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9Z DATA FOR 11 PM SUNDAY: Well, look at that. The thunderstorms are breaking apart and staying mostly south. We shall see as this is not set in stone, but my goodness it fits this season.

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6Z RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: There is another chance of rain and thunderstorms Monday as a new disturbance comes in from the southwest. So, the 6Z data showed widespread 1″-3″ of rain in locations that need it.

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9Z RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: This shows quite a reduction in the rainfall potential and this certainly is possible as this is 2018 in our area. The 9Z data even broke apart the Monday thunderstorms before they arrive.

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SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY: The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting the 9Z data is more likely as the best chance of severe weather is in southwest Kansas with no risk just east of KC. Now, we can still see some decent rain without severe, but again, we know how this season is going.

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Have a great weekend and we will see what subsequent data shows.

Jeff Penner

Is It Going To Happen Again?

Good morning bloggers,

There is another chance of a big drink of water for our lawns showing up later this weekend.  Let’s look at four computer model outputs, and then open up the discussion below.  We will start with the NAM, with the second model being the GFS, then the Canadian model, and finally the European Model:

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gem_apcpn_scus_19

 

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The four models have varying rainfall forecasts:

  • NAM:  4.11″
  • GFS:  2.01″
  • Canadian:  0.64″
  • Euro:  0.72″

It has been baffling in attempting to describe how there is a “miss” every time. Oh, some of us have gotten a decent rainfall here and there, but I do not believe there has been even one wide spread rainfall or snowfall in this years LRC that hit the entire KC viewing area region, which extends from Maryville, near the Iowa border to Pleasanton and Garnett Kansas, farther south, and from just east of Topeka, KS to Sedalia, MO.  And, is it about to happen again?  If any of you have looked at the models closely, then you may realize that there is always a model that is much lower than the others. And, this varies from storm to storm. One storm could show 5″ of snow on three of the the four models, but one model shows a solution with nothing.  There could be all four models showing 5″ of snow, and then the HRRR short range model shows nothing.  For Kansas City there has been zero consensus on the models. There is always one the shows the miss. And, just looking above, today it is the Canadian model for this next good chance. It is the lowest amount, basically showing another miss. This does not mean that we won’t finally break through Sunday into Monday, but it is another warning sign.

What do I think will happen?  Answer: There will be at least two or three big complexes of thunderstorms between now and Tuesday.  And, I will go with the models and say anywhere from 0.5″ to over 4″ are possible.

Have a great day. Let’s see how this sets up. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Is Climate Change Real? Answer: Yes!

Good morning bloggers,

Summer began at 5:09 AM central time today, and it will be a cooler first day of summer. Today, since I am in flight to Los Angeles for the day, I will do a quick blog, but open up the dialogue. Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation by clicking here:  Weather2020 Blog

Is Climate Change real?  The short answer is a resounding YES.  The earth is in a strong warming phase right now, and likely caused by human influences since the Industrial Revolution.  While the exact causes are certainly up for debate, the fact is that the earth is warming up.  Today, #MetsUnite is in progress with meteorologists wearing the Climate Change tie:

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The tie represents every years temperatures from 1850 to the current year, color coded for the level of temperature.

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Do you believe in Climate Change? Do you believe the earth is warming up? I suggest looking at the facts. What is causing this warming? That is up for debate, but the facts also lean in the direction of Anthropogenic forcing.

Have a great day. I will check in later.

Gary

Another Hit Or Miss

Good morning bloggers,

Here we are on the last day of spring, and a storm system is moving our way.  It has happened again, although a few of us did receive a really nice thunderstorm yesterday afternoon.  As you can see below, there were many spots that did not even receive one drop of rain:

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This map above shows the estimated rainfall totals fro the Kansas City region.  And, the thunderstorms that were raging this way last night completely fizzled.  Amazingly, there isn’t even anything left on radar from last nights huge area of thunderstorms, at least approaching our area.  A few spots, even near KC had over an inch of rain.  Today, it appears that Kansas City is going to get missed.  I am not 100% certain as something may form along a wind shift line that is going to move through, but it would be brief, and most likely form to our east as you can see below:

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This forecast map shows a thin line of thunderstorms getting its act together southeast of KC, while the stronger surface low with heavy thunderstorms all around it located over northern Iowa.  That northern Iowa system will drop south, or part of it will anyway leaving KC with one chance of rain on Thursday from the main system. This main system, by 11 PM tonight as seen below, is getting a bit better organized.  We are cycling through the part of the pattern that in October did produce 3″ of rain near Kansas City, and it is producing again. It missed a few areas in October, and it is missing a few areas again in June.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. High: 85°
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Low:  68°
  • Thursday: Summer begins at 5:09 AM.  Expect increasing clouds, cooler, with a 70% chance of a few showers or thunderstorms.  High:  78°
  • Friday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers or thunderstorms. High:  79°

Here we go again. Take a look at the rainfall forecast for the next 15 days from last nights GFS model run.  How many times have we seen this, and some areas are actually getting production?  But, many others are very dry.

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Summer begins tomorrow morning at 5:09 AM.  Let’s see how this all sets up.  Have a  great day and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click here to join in the conversation:  Weather2020 blog

Gary

Afternoon Rain

Good afternoon bloggers,

Well, 1″ of rain just fell near KCI Airport.  The amounts are varying, so how much did you receive from this first wave. This is the first wave of energy around the first day of summer storm that is approaching.

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The storm is shown above by the arrows I showed on the water vapor satellite picture from just after 2 PM today.  There were still some lingering thunderstorms near I-70.  The main storm will be spinning by on Thursday as you can see below.

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Gary

A Summer Storm On The First Day Of Summer

Good morning bloggers,

Over the weekend we discussed “A strong LRC argument for a wet week ahead”.  The weather pattern is cycling and there is tremendous organization to what seems like chaos in the river of air flowing across the Northern Hemisphere.  You can learn more about by clicking here and reading the peer reviewed paper:  Cycling Patterns Of The Northern Hemisphere.  I showed clearly that the weather pattern was cycling through the part of the pattern that produced a huge October rain event in Kansas City.  From Gary England, “Lezak, I saw it, I saw the LRC, It’s the same, but different”.  Gary England saw the pattern back in 2009 when a major winter storm was taking aim in Oklahoma City, and I was sharing with Gary something special that he could use to forecast that winter storm.  The same pattern that cycled through in October is now cycling through in June, so when this storm shows up later this week, and you hear from other meteorologists how unusual it is, just know that this is the sixth time through the cycling pattern that this part of the pattern has affected us.  This is the storm I used to predict our first inch of snow, and I was wrong.  The storm showed up in December, right on schedule in cycle 2, but it did not produce that first inch of snow in KC. It should have. Now, what will this storm do this time?

The 500 mb flow valid Friday morning, on the first full day of summer:

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Summer begins at 5:09 AM central time Thursday morning, and around 24 hours later this pattern will be moving across the nation. Look at the circle near KC.  This is a 500 mb low, around 18,000 feet up.  This should produce a lot of rain as it approaches and moves by. In October, Kansas City received almost 3″ of rain as this part of the pattern cycled through. We have not had a day that wet since that October 20-22 storm.

Surface Forecast:

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This map shows the surface forecast valid at 1 PM Friday.  There is a swirl of rain and thunderstorms forecast to be near KC Friday morning.  There is a second storm spinning this way that is pushing, or kicking this lead storm out, and as a result there are multiple chances of rain in the forecast over these next couple of weeks.  Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 15 days:

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Look at the high rainfall totals forces over the corn belt.  12 to 15 inches of rain are forecast by this model with KC on the southern edge of the 3″ plus amounts.  This would be a blessing before summer settles in, if it ever does.  But, will we be left frustrated once again. The frustrations have been almost non stop since this October storm.  So, we will not be shocked by the end of the week if we are left frustrated once again.  We had five days in the 70s before that storm hit in October. And, we are now in a heat wave ahead of this storm in June.

Heat Wave Reaches Four Days:

  • June 13:  83°
  • June 14:  96°
  • June 15:  95°
  • June 16:  95°
  • June 17:  95°

Today will be another sizzler, then some changes begin taking place Tuesday as this storm system, discussed above, begins forming.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great start to the week.

Gary

 

A Strong LRC Argument For It Getting Wet Next Week

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is cycling as described by the LRC.  We started this blog in 2002, and we began sharing my hypothesis with the bloggers, some of whom have been reading the blog from the start.  If you remember, I called it “the theory”, or my theory.  The early bloggers saw that there was something special about it and they suggested calling it the GRC, and around a week later a blogger suggested calling it the LRC. I didn’t really care what it was called then, and I said, “sure, we will call it the LRC”.   It never really mattered to me what it was called, but it obviously stuck, and we now know it as the LRC.  After 18 months, of work, 30 years of research, or really 70 years of research when adding in Jerome Namais from the 1940s to the 1970s, a paper was published called the Cycling Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere: 70 years of research and a new hypothesis. The new hypothesis is the LRC, or as it is called in the paper, the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

This years pattern:

This years LRC begin during the end of the first week of October.  That first cycle was as fascinating as every cycle has been so far, and we are now in the sixth LRC cycle.  This pattern will continue through September before a new and unique pattern sets up again in late September into that first week of October.  If you go back 47-48 day cycle times 5 ago, you come out to this comparison. Through the years we have shared 100s of examples like this one:

Cycle Comparisons Cycles 1 and 6

Cycle Comparisons Cycles 1 and 6 Final

Here we are in the almost summer version of the “same pattern, but different” as Gary England called it in 2009 when the LRC puzzle came into focus for him.  It is the same pattern, but it will differ depending on many different factors. The biggest factor is a seasonal difference in strength of the river of air flowing above us within the troposphere.  There is tremendous organization to the chaos, and the LRC showcases this organization.

The LRC Computer Model:

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I just checked our model for around 10 different zip codes around the United States, and to me it is quite obvious that the 47-48 day cycle is evident in this model output above. The orange line shows the LRC Projection. The green line shows the actual high temperatures. The blue line shows climatology, or the average high temperature. The pattern is quite obviously cycling regularly, and this computer model is verifying quite well. This is a forecast made from March, or a 90 day forecast.

There is a storm system, now being modeled by the GFS and European models, showing up in the middle of the nation next week. This storm is directly related to the late October storm system that formed into a Great Lakes upper low in October. This storm went through a major transition over the western plains into the Missouri River Valley in October, and it will likely go through a similar transition, but the June version this time.  This developing mid-week pattern would normally be quite wet at this time of the year.  And, look at this forecast from the GFS, with the European Model similar:

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This rainfall forecast over the next ten days shows 2 to 6 inch amounts. Now, if you live near KC we have been through this since October.  The pattern has found some way to only produce spotty higher amounts.  We will just have to see if it produces this time.  Have a great day.  Let’s see how the models come in today.  And, go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Have a great weekend.

Gary

 

The Second Half Of July Will Be Interesting

Good morning bloggers,

“Interesting” is something we have had almost non stop with this pattern. “Frustrating” is what we have experienced if you live near KC.  So, Interesting and Frustrating has been the theme since this pattern started in October.  There have been many times, from October through today, where we have had models shown some exciting set ups producing lots of rain, potential snow, and exciting weather set ups for us weather enthusiasts.  Next week is yet another one of those times that shows a set up featuring a stalling front that may produce the rain we have been waiting for, or it may very well end up leaving us in the dust again?   Take  a look at the next few days, and how it is lining up:

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The front will likely stall and gradually weaken between Monday and Wednesday.  It is certainly interesting, and the chance that it will be frustrating is high. As we have thought many, many times however, is that maybe this one will be different. And, maybe it will?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 10-20 mph. High: 95°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 5-15 mph.  High: 95°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. South winds 5-15 mph.  High: 95°
  • Monday:  Mostly sunny, hot and humid. A few afternoon clouds building up, but the chance of rain is less than 10%.  High:  94°
  • Tuesday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.  The chance of rain increases to 50%.  High:  85°

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06z (1 AM) GFS Rainfall Forecast:

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We will learn more about this pattern over the weekend.  Have a great day. Go to the Weather2020.com and join in the conversation or just share in this weather experience as we all learn together!

Gary