Great Weather for Big Weekend Events

Good Wednesday bloggers,

It was a quite eventful first half of October. The next 7 days will see mostly quiet weather in our area with one main rain chance. This is good news for the big events this weekend. There are three races at the Kansas Speedway, the KC marathon and the Chiefs game on Sunday night Football in America, right here on 41 Action News against the Bengals.

The weather pattern right now is in split flow. There is a northern branch tracking southeast from Canada into the Great Lakes and New England. This is bringing rain and snow showers to the northeast part of the country. There is a second branch tracking across the southern USA. This branch is rounding an upper level low in the southwest USA which is delivering waves of rain from the southern Plains to the southeast USA. Texas is really getting hit as 5″ to 12″ of rain has occurred between San Angelo and Dallas. A new 2″ to 5″ of rain is likely before the system lifts out Thursday night and Friday. This will bring our next chance of rain. We do not expect much rain as the system will be weakening.

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THURSDAY: It will be another nice fall day as a surface high pressure tracks from Nebraska today to the Tennessee valley. We will see a few more clouds as the southwest system begins to move. Rain will be found across the western Plains.

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FRIDAY MORNING: This is when we have the best chance of rain for the next seven days. Right now it looks like just light showers with the heaviest staying south.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be mostly along I-44. It will be mostly cloudy around here with highs in the 50s and perhaps some mist or a few showers. The clearing line will move through Friday night. Total rainfall around here looks to be a trace to .10″, unless the system comes farther north.

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The upper level flow this weekend will feature a new, weak upper low over southern California and a trough from Canada to the northeast. Northwest flow will be found over our part of the world, with the main jet stream to the north.

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This will put us in the middle of a large area of great weather. It may be a bit breeze Saturday and again Sunday night. Showers will linger over the southern USA. It will be cold with rain and snow showers from the Great Lakes to New England.

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This is great news for all the big outdoor events this weekend.

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SATURDAY:

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SUNDAY NIGHT:

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Have a great Thursday.

Jeff Penner

First Half Of October Results

Good morning bloggers,

We had a pretty decent freeze this morning as the temperatures were below freezing from  1 AM to 8 AM. The low temperature dropped to 26 degrees this morning, which ends the growing season in our area:

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What just happened?  Kansas City just had what I would argue is the most exciting 15 day stretch of weather we have had in years. Just in the past seven days we have had heavy rain, tornado warnings, and some snow.  It was the earliest first accumulation in Kansas City’s recorded history:

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How close did we come to having a surprise 2 to 3 inch snowfall?  It was actually very close. We are so used to getting missed. Well, maybe we will begin getting used to having it get more exciting as we get closer to an event, and not less exciting. This is at least how the LRC has started. We have had wide spread high rainfall amounts and these totals are for just one half of this month.

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It was also wet last year in October, and there are many huge differences this year.  First of all it already has snowed measurably in KC and Wichita, KS, the earliest ever recorded. And, more importantly, the rain was not along and east of I-35 like it was last year. This time it was wide spread over many states centered near KC.  So, we establish some big differences from last years pattern results already. Hang on for a few more weeks before you make any conclusions.  It is way too early. It would be like predicting how your fantasy football team will do this year after you drafted your first two players. Rounds 3 though 12 are still ahead.  Let’s see how Mother Nature drafts the rest of our players.

It is going to be a beautiful fall day with a high reaching 60 degrees or a bit higher.  The weather looks great for next Sunday nights game as well.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

State Of The Climate In 2017

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City set the record for the earliest accumulation in recorded history last night with 0.2″ at KCI Airport.  There is a FREEZE WARNING for tonight.  There likely will not be a hard freeze. Conditions are favorable for heavy frost early Tuesday morning. There was too much of a breeze this morning for frost to form, and now with light winds tonight, we will likely have the heavy frost on Tuesday morning.  Then, there is a big warm up, and the weather looks dry and a bit cool next Sunday night for the big Chiefs home game against the Bengals.  Last night was a good night in the loss at New England. Our young superstar grew up some more.  We have some exciting years ahead, and this year may still be magical, so take a deep breath.

Speaking of taking a deep breath, I titled this blog State of the climate in 2017, and I am going to share with you what scientists have put together in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society here.  It will open up a big debate.  Where are the facts? I see them as this current warming of the earth being directly related to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.  Yes, the facts lean strongly in the direction that this is a man made warming.  This is not my opinion, although I lean in this direction.  Take a look:

STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017 (from the special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 99, No. 8, August 2018)

Climate“In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs.  The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface for 2017 was 405.0 +/- 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800,000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s.

With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most fo the year and weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranges as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s.  Notably, it was the warmest non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth’s surface, the annual lower troposhperic temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed.  The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite data sets.

Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain,and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures.  Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year.  On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madrid, (43°) anywhere in the world.  On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan’s all-time highest temperature for May.

In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016.  The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada.  In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C or 3° to 4°C warmer than the long-term mean (1982-present).  According to paleoclimate studies, today’s abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years.  The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness.  On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean.

Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier.

Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the west Antarctic coast.  In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988.

Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching.  The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such even on record. Global integrals of 0-700-mand 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average.

In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm.  Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 kmh/h.  Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico.  Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet.

Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900.  Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives.  In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggers the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolivar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100,o00 people.

Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively.  Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region’s driest summer on record.  In the United States, and extremely western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.”

This is the abstract to the full publication!  The earth has been warming. What is the cause? Is it a natural occurrence, or a major influence by manmade greenhouse gases increasing in the atmosphere, albeit small amounts. The direct relationship from the current warming to the increased greenhouse gases must be seriously considered and the evidence and facts point in the direction of this warming being manmade.

Have a great day. We will look into the cycling pattern on 41 Action News tonight. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link to the blog:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

 

Strong Cold Front & Possible Snowflakes

Good morning bloggers,

It was down to a bone chilling 19 degrees in Casper, Wyoming his morning, and 20 degrees in Denver, CO:

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This cold front is heading our way and will move through later this morning with the temperatures beginning to fall.  The air will be coming from almost due north, so we will not have the air coming front Grand Island, for example, but rather Fort Dodge, IA. This will likely keep our temperatures from dropping to below 32 degrees tonight with the brisk north wind not allowing any low lying areas from dropping into the 20s. If there are any wind protected areas, then a freeze is possible. This is why the NWS has not issued a freeze warning for KC yet.

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There is a freeze warning to our north, however, so northwestern Missouri and far northeastern KS locations do have a Freeze Warning.

There is an area of precipitation organizing to our northwest and it is snowing over a large area of Nebraska, touching the Kansas border.  Will Kansas City see any snowflakes? The conditions are not favorable for any snowflakes reaching the surface until well after sunset tonight, and this will be when the precipitation is about to end.  It will be something to monitor closely as the Chiefs play New England in Boston.

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Forecast Maps:

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The rain/snow/sleet line does get to the south side of the KC metro area before midnight. There is a chance that a dusting to less than 1″ of snow may accumulate on grassy surfaces north of KC later today, but with temperatures hovering just above freezing there likely will not be any accumulation on roads, so no travel problems are expected.  What are the chances that KC, that we see our first snowflakes tonight? Well, I would put it at70% chance north of I-70, with lesser chances farther south and east.

New England Tonight:

It will be clear, with light winds in Boston with temperatures dropping from the 50s into the 40s.  It could not be better weather for a big game. Go Patrick “Michael Jordan” Mahomes and the KC Chiefs tonight. Will we be 6-0 by 11 PM tonight? I think so. My prediction is 34-23 Chiefs.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Nice Saturday, Big Changes Sunday

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking another system for Sunday and it could bring the first snowflakes of the season to some locations. The weather pattern is rather active. The rain system from Friday is now over New York city. The remnants of Pacific tropical system Sergio are bringing heavy rain to parts of Oklahoma and Texas. The systems for Sunday are now located in Montana and southern California. Pieces of each system will combine with a cold front to bring big changes Sunday.

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Also, where is Michael? Saturday morning it was exiting Newfoundland and headed to Europe as a post tropical system.

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Now let’s get to the weekend weather.

SATURDAY: It will be a nice day with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will reach 55°-60° depending on how much sun your location receives.

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SUNDAY MORNING: Our area will be mostly dry with temperatures 45°-50°. You cannot rule out a shower or two. Rain, snow, wind and falling temperatures will be occurring across Kansas and Nebraska.

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SUNDAY NOON: Rain and wind will increase as temperatures decrease. Snow may be occurring or mixed with the rain in the northwest corner of Missouri.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: It will be windy and cold with winds gusting from the north at 10-25 mph. Temperatures will be in the 30s with wind chill values in the 20s. There will be areas of light to moderate rain. Snowflakes and/or sleet may be mixed in, especially north of KC. Temperatures will be mostly above freezing, so roads will be wet.

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MONDAY MORNING: The storm system will be gone as the sky clears and winds decrease. Lows will be around 30°. So, yes we may see our first freeze. Wind chill values will stay in the 20s. What about black ice? We do not expect any issues as surfaces will dry before they have a chance to freeze. Also, some locations may not drop below freezing.

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The average first freeze date in our area ranges from around October 10th to 20th. So, a freeze on October 15th is average. Remember to protect the delicate plants.

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Here is a snowfall forecast for Sunday and Monday.

The KC area may see a few snowflakes or ice pellets just as the precipitation ends Sunday evening. A dusting, mainly on grassy surfaces, is possible in far northwest Missouri.

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The best chance for accumulating snow will be across Wyoming, Colorado and western sections of Nebraska and Kansas. 1″ to 6″ will be possible in those locations.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner