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Thunderstorms In This Week’s Forecast

Good evening bloggers,

Thunderstorms moved across the area, mostly north of I-70 before sunset. Here is a picture from our American Century Investments Skyview:

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This was not a severe thunderstorm as it formed north of the outflow boundary that switched the winds to the north for a while.  Are we about to have torrential amounts of rain this week, or is Kansas City once again going to be in the wrong spot. The models have been trending into a rather wet scenario in the coming days.  There has been some significant flooding from tonight’s event around Manhattan, KS, and north of KC.

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Look at that rainfall forecast by next Monday. Oh my goodness!  That is 5″ plus. Let’s see if this continues to look this wet. I will be discussing this on 41 Action News tonight, and then our team will have you covered on Tuesday!

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Tuesday appears to be the calm day before the very good chances of rain arrive Wednesday into the end of the weekend. There will be some severe weather risks as well, especially by the weekend.

Gary

Monday Night Thunderstorms

Good Monday bloggers,

This week is going to be much more active than last week as we track a series of rain and thunderstorm chances.  A front will be stalled north of I-70 into tonight before it lifts well north.  There are countless disturbances that will be tracking northeast from the southwest USA this week as well.  The main storm will be dropping into the four corners area by the end of the week.  This main storm will eject out next weekend.  All of these weather features will bring daily chances of rain and thunderstorms to our area.  These will likely not be all day rains, but each day there will be a period or two of rain and thunderstorms.  We will have to take this one day at a time.

So, today and tonight there is a good chance of thunderstorms along and north of the stalled front and an accompanying disturbance tracking west to east along this front.  There is a slight risk of severe weather over northeast Kansas and northern Missouri with KC on the south edge.

TODAY’S SEVERE RISK

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MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS: The tornado threat is near zero as the flow aloft is too weak.  Some thunderstorm may contain quarter sized hail and wind gusts over 58 mph.

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10 PM TONIGHT: The latest data has heavy thunderstorms from north of Topeka to Kirksville.  The ground can hold quite a bit of water as it has not rained much the last week.  However, this time of year that can change quickly.  So, flash flooding could become an increasing issue this week.

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730 AM TUESDAY: The thunderstorms will be mostly gone as the front begins to surge north as a warm front.  The Tuesday morning rush hour will be mostly likely dry.

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11 PM TUESDAY: Tuesday will be a mostly dry day with highs in the low 80s along with a south wind 10-25 mph.  The front will be well north and a non-factor.  We will turn our attention to the southwest as one of the bigger systems of the week heads into the Plains from the southwest USA.  Tomorrow night areas of rain and thunderstorms will form all over Texas, Oklahoma and western Kansas.  There will be some severe weather in the high Plains.  These areas will move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day Wednesday in a weakened state.  Wednesday has the potential to be a wet day.

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Thursday through Saturday will see daily thunderstorm chances.  At this moment it looks like they will be forming in the high Plains during the evening and then head through our area during the morning.  This would reduce the severe threat, but we must watch the set up closely each day.  We will have updates through the week.

Have a great day and week ahead.

Jeff

 

Time to play the weather lottery

Living in this part of the country, we’ve all purchased tickets in the weather lottery this week. In the broad brush sense, there’s a chance of rain and pop-up thunderstorms pretty much every day this week. As far as where they will fall, what exact time, and what day… that’s the lottery part. Now that said, don’t get too focused on the “percent chance” that will show up in various forecasts. Some meteorologists will arrive at their percentage in different manners than others. Some will use a scientific formula; others just use their gut. That can be tough for you, the consumer, when it comes to planning out your day.

Moreover, location plays a huge role. There may be a 20% chance in Kansas City Monday, but a 70% chance in Maryville. It’s difficult for us to convey that on a 7-day forecast graphic. So it’s important to really take in a forecast and listen to what is being said.

With that as the ground work, here is how things are taking shape for us Monday.
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A stationary front will be lurking near the Iowa & Missouri line. This should be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms. Not to say they will all stay right at that boundary, but it should be the general concentration point.
Another way to look at things:
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So that’s where the BEST chances are for rain/storms on Monday.

Going through the week, we still have more chances. For Kansas City in particular, this is what I am thinking.
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Notice how I’ll leave off the percentages and just give you simple words of low, good, likely. Another reminder: good doesn’t mean it’s promised and low doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Think about the odds of winning in the lottery. Even with good odds, you can still be a non-winner.

So given those chances, here is what I think you should take away and keep in mind as we go through the next few days.
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For those wondering, it was windy today with gusts near 40mph. The wind will start to subside as the sun sets tonight.
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Warm air will continue to stick around this week. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s for many locales, which is above average. As long as we can keep away the severe weather, I’ll be a happy little weather guy. May is typically a turbulent month so we have to keep our guard up. Rest assured our weather team will be looking over everything and doing all we can to keep you safe & informed.

Enjoy your week ahead,
-JD

Invest in a wind farm

Due to coverage of the “greatest two minutes in sports” (aka: the Kentucky Derby) our regular 5pm and 6pm newscasts will not happen. However, after the conclusion of the race, we will be on for a brief three to four minute news update. Then, we’ll see you again at 10pm.

Now, while you wait for the ponies to do a little runnin’, here’s what’s going down in the weather department.

We picked up some rain showers in a few areas this morning, mainly North of Interstate 70. As long as we’re not getting severe weather, it’s all fine by me.
Some have already asked about amounts. This is what the official reporting sites are showing.
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Your measurement will likely be a bit different.
At this point, there are a few lingering showers East of the Kansas/Missouri line and those will continue to push East. I am not expecting anything new to develop for tonight. So enjoy the evening.
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Sunday will be a good day to own a wind farm or perhaps several kites. The wind machine will be stuck on high.
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So for those heading out to the Royals midday game or the Sporting KC match at 4pm, make sure you know it will be warm and windy. Gusts could easily top out near 35mph.
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Looking into next week, I think the warm air is going to stick around. We’ll see many areas across the country will above average readings.
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Now that said, there will also be a stalled front that lingers just to the North of Kansas City.
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This is going to be a pain in terms of the forecast. Because that front is nearby, we’re going to have to allow for some thunderstorm development. Right now, no one day really looks better than the other. So 30%-40% rain chances will have to do for now. I don’t think it’s a washout but it is that time of year where a heavier thunderstorm could pop up in the heat of the day. At the same time, we could also spark some early morning activity depending on how other dynamics unfold.
We’ll keep looking over the information and fine tune the forecast as we move forward.

In the short term, a warm & windy day ahead for Sunday then a chance for showers and some t-storms Monday, mainly North of I-70.

Let’s hope the Royals cage the Tigers again tonight!
-JD

Scattered Showers

Good Saturday bloggers,

This morning we are dealing with scattered showers as weak disturbances track in from the west as warm and more moist air is starting to head north.  These showers will be around until about 2 PM, then the weather will improve as the disturbances move away. So, if you have outdoor plans today keep an umbrella handy, but this evening you will not need one.

SATURDAY MORNING SAT/RAD: You can see a disturbance in central Kansas.  It will take until about 2 PM for this to move through.

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NOON SATURDAY: Scattered showers will continue as the disturbance moves by.  This morning and early afternoon will not be a washout, but you will have to deal with off and on rain, mostly light.

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5 PM SATURDAY: The rain will be moving away and we are in for a nice Saturday evening as highs reach the mid 70s.

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SUNDAY 2 PM: Sunday will be a dry day with highs in the low 80s.  It will be more humid and windy with south winds 15-30 mph and gusty.  My son has a baseball game and it will not be rained out.  Last Sunday it was in the 40s and 50s during the game, so this will be much better.

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SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING: This will be our next chance of rain and a front approaches.  Thunderstorms will form on the front to our northwest Sunday evening.  Then, overnight these showers and thunderstorms will likely drift southeast into our area.  The threat of severe weather is near zero as the flow aloft will be rather weak.  We could use the rain as it has been dry for about a week and it does dry out fast this time of year.

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There will be more rain and thunderstorm chances next week, with a very low severe weather threat.  We will have to take the forecast one day at a time as there will be a series of disturbances to track with the main front stalled well to the northwest.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Just a simple Thursday

As the last grains of sand in the month of April fall to the bottom of the hour glass, we’ll exit the month on a fairly quiet note. Sunshine, a few clouds, with mild temperatures and light wind. Hard to argue with that this time of year!
The big picture satellite and radar shows it’s pretty calm across most of the country.
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This means another great day for us with highs in the 70s and a fair amount of sun. Here it is by the hour today.
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The Royals will come back home tonight and what a night this will be for baseball.
Royals Forecast - Option 3

As we move into the weekend, we look to stay warm but there could be a few spotty showers around on Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday morning. Short term NAM & RPM guidance is picking up on it. However, it’s still a couple days away and the models continue to have last-minute change of hearts. We’ll keep looking over the information and give you updates! In the meantime, get out and enjoy the weather…. go to the golf course, talk a walk around the park, or just sit outside and talk it all in!
-JD

Two Distant Storm Systems

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are tracking two storm systems this week.  Each one will have an indirect impact on our region.  The first storm system has been producing much needed rain to Oklahoma and Texas.  This is really helping out the winter wheat crop as they have been in a severe drought across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas.  This storm is now weakening and tracking well to our south.  It’s impact in our region has been to send us periods of high  clouds.  It will produce some bigger thunderstorms from Arkansas, Louisiana into the southeast USA the next 2 days.

9 AM SATELLITE/RADAR: You can see the storm to our south, it is in a weakening phase.

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3 PM TUESDAY: It will be yet another nice day with highs well into the 60s to near 70° with a bit of a north breeze.

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7 AM WEDNESDAY: The morning rush hour Wednesday will once again be calm and cool.  The second storm system will be forming over the Great Lakes.  It will track south, well east of our area.  It will bring showers and cool weather to many locations east of the Mississippi river.  It will send us a very weak cold front.  Tomorrow morning this weak front will be on our doorstep.

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230 PM WEDNESDAY: The weak front will be drifting through with very little moisture to work with.  So, we will have a band of cumulus clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or brief, small shower as this front moves through.  Highs tomorrow will still reach the low 70s.

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7 AM THURSDAY: You can see the storm system over Illinois and Indiana.  We are just out of the reach of this storm system, but Thursday will be a few degrees cooler as our winds turn more northeast behind the weak front.  We may have a few more clouds as well.  Thursday will still be a nice day.

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Next week is looking more more active with several rain and thunderstorm chances.  We always have to watch for the potential of severe weather in May.  We will update this more the next several days.

One other issue are the allergies.  After the rain the last several days and now the sun, the trees are exploding.  If you are having major allergy issues this week, like my poor son, then you are most likely allergic to tree pollen, specifically Oak and Mulberry.  In the next 1-2 weeks this pollen will come down,

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Have a great day and week.

Jeff

 

Looking ahead through this week

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern will be calming down this week, and then becoming more interesting and entertaining again next week. JD made this graphic and posted it yesterday to show are near zero rain chances for this week.

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The weather pattern is definitely calming down over most of the nation for around a week, but as we move into May we will see increasing chances of thunderstorms again.

Kansas City Rainfall at KCI Airport

  • April:  3.29″ so far (average is 3.33″ by tonight)
  • For the year:  6.35″ (8.23″ is the average by tonight)

Some parts of the metro have had over 4″ this month, but the amount at KCI is still a pretty good representation of what is going on. It has continued to be a struggle to get rain to fall, just like it was a struggle to get snow to fall. Kansas City ended up with 14.2″ of snow for the season which is below the seasonal average of 18.8″.  Our winter forecast called for 17″ of snow and we forecasted that Kansas City is not in the right spot and this continues to this day in this year’s LRC. Speaking of the LRC, we have allowed any of you to test out the LRC Forecast Experience Blog for free for ten views. We just went over 500 of you who have joined in on this experience, so check it out and join in on this educational experience. We have some big and exciting things going on that we will be sharing with you in May at www.Weather2020.com.

The jet stream is retreating northward this week and this will allow us to warm up gradually, but we will still be under then influence of this storm system developing over the southeastern United States:

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This is definitely a dry weather pattern for our area, but we are seeing increasing chances for thunderstorms next week. Here is the surface forecast valid Friday evening:

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Have a great day! We will be working on some special graphics to describe this weather pattern on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

A shift to warmer days

Run to your nearest home renovation store, grab a bucket of cheap, mismatched paint then take it home and slap it on a wall of your choosing. From there, watch it dry. Grab some popcorn too. What you’ll then have is more excitement than our weather forecast for the next several days. Yep.

Now that said, it doesn’t mean we won’t have nice weather. It just means there won’t be too much for us to talk about overall.

Today we had those morning clouds but they cleared out in the afternoon, leading to a very nice finish to the day (aside from the breeze).
I think we’ll see more of that Monday: sunshine and mild temperatures. We will still have the breezy Northeast wind to battle though.

Looking ahead, we’ve got a bit of a pattern change coming our way. On Monday, this is how the atmosphere will be setup
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That area of low pressure will generate rain and thunderstorms in Oklahoma and Texas, as shown by Powercast.
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Moving into the middle of the week, we’ll see a ridge in the atmosphere move over the area.
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This will allow us to really pump up the temperatures; I expect highs to jump into the 70s. And as we head into the first weekend of May, 80s are looking possible.

When it comes to rainfall chances, we have a couple… but they do not look that promising right now.
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I also saw an indication from our RPM model for showers late Tuesday. I am skeptical of that, but we’ll need to watch and see. Right now, Wednesday morning has a small shot and then again Friday. However, Friday’s chances may wind up staying just North of Kansas City.

So that’s about it. I’m off to buy a couple gallons of paint, some popcorn, and a deck of cards. Yawn.
-JD

Drying out tonight but staying cool

The storm system that brought rain and thunderstorms this morning is now pulling out of the area. The loop over the last 12 hours really shows the low pressure system in the atmosphere. Check this out.
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Rainfall numbers (from the official reporting sites) were mixed. Your backyard measurement will likely be different.
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The clouds should hang around tonight into tomorrow morning. Patchy areas of mist and drizzle are likely, but meaningful rain should be done for the night.
As we move through the day, the sun should try and return Sunday. It may take a while for our Southern counties.
I expect temperatures to be in the 60s and we’ll keep a breezy Northeast wind throughout the day.
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Looking ahead, as it stands right now, we’ve got a pretty quiet week ahead. No major rain-makers passing through. The temps should warm into the 70s by the end of the week…just in time for our bad boys in blue to come back home to Kauffman.

Take a jacket if you’re headed out this evening.
-JD