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Overall holiday weekend forecast not that bad

Many are asking: when is it going to rain? When can I make plans outside?
In some regard, it’s like trying to nail jello to the wall. But that said, the picture is getting a little less murky heading into the long holiday weekend. Let’s just jump right into it… based on what I have seen today, here is a rough idea of when you can make plans:
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Without question, it’s going to rain this weekend. Your backyard will likely see rain at some point between Friday and Monday. As it stands now, Sunday is the day with the highest odds.
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Okay, so how much rain? I believe that is still subject to change. But I would not be surprised if amounts were (on average) around 1-2″.
Around the wider area, some pretty impressive rain is possible over the next few days. This map is based on the NAM forecast model through 10am Monday.
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Again, the bulk of that rain is expected to fall on Sunday. And there is no doubt about it: we’ve seen our fair share of water this month. Just look at the major reporting sites across our viewing area.
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The new drought monitor came out this morning and it shows just how much better things have gotten across the region.
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Now the attention may turn to those dealing with minor flooding over the next few days, which is never fun.

I will admit the overall forecast is a bit of a headache with this being the holiday weekend and the atmosphere not in a playful mood. The NAM model continues to be the most aggressive with putting rain in the area. It says we have rain Friday at Noon, Saturday off & on, and then brings the heavy rain through Sunday.
That said, the Euro, the GFS, and the RPM are not as aggressive at all. They do agree that Sunday is the wet day, but there is a chance that most of Saturday is actually dry in KC! I am not ready to buy into that just yet, given how this year as been. Truly it’s an “any excuse will do” to produce rain this Spring.

My advice is: keep checking on the forecast. If you watched at 7am, watch again at 5pm. If you watched at 5pm, watch at 10pm. This is going to be an evolving setup and we’re only as good as our last forecast. So keep yourself updated.

Kalee is in Friday morning with a fresh take on the info. I’ll be back in for Gary Friday afternoon and will have new forecasts starting at 4pm. Remember you stay with our team on social media too and we’ll be sure to keep you informed!
-JD

The Wet Pattern Continues To Look Wetter

Good morning bloggers,

We set a record for the lowest high temperature ever in KC’s recorded history yesterday. It was only 54° and that happened around midnight. The old record was set way back in 1892, so a record was broken that stood for 123 years.

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The pattern is becoming even more favorable for excessive rain in our region. Will it target Kansas City and our surrounding communities? Remember, this is the same pattern that we have been experiencing since last fall.  We made some adjustments to the forecast lowering high temperatures into the 60s the next three days with the chance of rain returning Friday. It has rained 17 out of the first 20 days of this month.

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Some of the models have had quite a bit of rain this weekend. This is the climatologically wettest weekend of the year, and it may be about to live up to it’s reputation.  This rainfall forecast is from the 18z GFS model from Wednesday.

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And, thank you Joe for your great comment at 10:12 PM Wednesday night:

Gary, rest assured, there are those of us that HAVE paid attention and understand how you define a cold phase. I think some hear you say “cold Phase” and automatically think that means winter like temps without taking into consideration the seasonal differences that you have addressed a hundred times. To me, it is common sense, a cold phase in May or June is going to be significantly different that a cold phase in December or January for a whole host of reasons. I for one, continue to be amazed at how accurate you and the team have been with the LRC this year as well as the past few. It seems to me that the accuracy rate continues to improve. As far as the ones that have yet to understand it, be patient as some will and for those that refuse to see it well…what’s that old adage? you can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink?”

Have a great Thursday.  I am taking a couple of days off, as I just worked 17 in a row. I will check back in as the weekend approaches. I am going to my first Royals game of the year on Friday night. Will it rain? I think there is a pretty good chance.

Gary

Summer Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

We presented the summer forecast last night at 10 PM.  Here is the link:  Summer Forecast

Rain and a few thunderstorms are approaching, however, I didn’t see many lightning strikes yet. There is no chance of severe weather with this system. The rain will taper off early in the day, and then some drizzle may remain for a while.  Have a great day!  We will look ahead to the holiday weekend forecast in our next blog entry later in the day.

Gary

Here Comes the Rain Again

Good Tuesday night bloggers,

It has been dry for almost 48 hours and now the rain is going to return.  There is no chance of severe weather in our area as temperatures are way to cool. There is severe weather occurring in Oklahoma and Texas.

Here are the temperatures from Tuesday afternoon.  We are in the 50s, but it is in the 30s in northwest Kansas!

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230 AM WEDNESDAY: We will be in the middle of the heavier rain by this time.  There will be some thunderstorms as well.  Temperatures will be in the 40s.

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7 AM WEDNESDAY: It is going to be a wet Wednesday morning rush hour with temperatures in the 40s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: Here is the latest forecast for rain with this next event.  This map shows the heaviest from Lawrence, KS to Richmond, MO with amounts just over an inch.  This is not set in stone, but we believe that there will be a heavier rain band.  It is hard to tell exactly where this will set up.  It could be 30-50 miles south or north of where this map shows, or this map is right.  If your location is not in the heaviest, then your amounts will be .25″ to .75″.  Is this enough to cause flooding? In most cases no, but the ground is saturated, so some locations will see minor flooding.  This means some creeks will rise and watch for high water in the normally flooded intersections.  Some sections of the Missouri river are in a state of flood, so any rain is not welcomed.  Also, this will keep the ground saturated, so if any heavier thunderstorms occur this weekend with rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour then some spots could have a serious situation.  Also, water that is sitting on farmland will not want to see the rain.

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7 PM WEDNESDAY: The rain will end by noon, so that by 7 PM it will be cloudy, cool and damp with some mist and temperatures near 50°.  If you are headed to the “K” or Sporting KC tomorrow night you will not need an umbrella, but you will need a jacket.  I need to listen to this advice as I am going to the Royals game.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Summer Forecast Tonight: The Wet Pattern Continues

Good late evening or early morning bloggers,

The Summer Forecast Is On 41 Action News at 10 PM tonight. If you are out of town you can watch it on KSHB.com!

After a very wet weekend we had a chance to dry out for two days. But, here comes the next storm system with some snow likely over western Nebraska. As discussed on Weather2020.com, we are now moving into the cold phase of this year’s cycling weather pattern.  And, right on schedule a cool May air mass is expanding out over the plains. Here is one of our Powercasts showing the snow over Wyoming and western Nebraska. This is a fast moving wave, a disturbance aloft, that will likely spread rain with a few thunderstorms possible into our area Wednesday morning.  It will be a fast mover:

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It will start out sunny and nice, and then clouds will be increasing later in the day.  High temperatures will rise into the 60 to 65 degree range on Tuesday.

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The pattern is going into a major amplification and this will create some forecasting problems for the meteorologists in the next week.  It is a tough Memorial Day Weekend Forecast.  We will be timing out rain chances, potentially getting too much rain in spots with more flooding possible. Look at the May rainfall totals so far.

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Here is the upper level flow forecast by 7 PM Thursday. You can see the huge ridge off the west coast into eastern Alaska and western Canada. Underneath this big ridge is our weekend storm system.

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We will discuss the weekend set-up in the next few blogs.  Have a Terrific Tuesday!

Gary

Saturday storm recap & looking ahead to cooler days

No mistake about it, Saturday night was the stormiest night we’ve had across the area in a while. From the heavy rain & lightning, to the strong wind and tornado reports. Luckily, we were given a great Sunday to dry out and regroup a little bit.

When it comes to the tornado reports, here’s the latest information.
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Some asked questions about the sirens sounding in parts of the Metro around midnight. Something you must know and remember: we (the weather community) do NOT control the sirens. Those are controlled by local emergency managers. The National Weather Service and the local TV/Radio stations have zero control over those. In my opinion, this is a flawed system. It adds confusion. There needs to be input and coordination from weather partners before sirens sound, frightening the public.
In any event, the heavy rain was a big issue for a variety of areas Saturday night. Take a look at some of the rainfall amounts, via radar estimates:
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Now, as we look ahead, what a change we have. Cooler air is set to filter in for Monday. Highs should be around 70° with a fair amount of sunshine and less in the way of wind. Not a bad day to hit the greens!
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Our next chance of rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the temperatures will take a tumble. We’re talking highs in the 50s! Look at this push of cool air coming:
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So, it will be tough to get severe weather on Wednesday. If anything, we’ll just have a cool rain to deal with and that may aggravate those who are dealing with flooding already.

Looking farther ahead, our next chance for severe weather returns as we head toward the weekend. Wish we could do more about the timing of that. We’ll have to be on guard again because if temperatures can climb toward the 80s, we could find ourselves in another rough spot. Obviously, we’re days away and much can change. That said, it’s May in the Central Plains….the weather gets nasty here.

Here’s to a nice week,
-JD

Wild Saturday Night, Calmer Few Days Ahead

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

What a crazy night of weather as we had flooding, hail and high wind report.  There were also 2 reports of tornadoes.  One was in northeast Jackson county about 1130 PM.  The thunderstorms intensified at this time as the main storm was ejecting out into the Plains.  If the storm came out 6 hour earlier, during peak heating, things could have been much worse.

Here is a radar image from 1130 PM Saturday night.  You can see a lead small super cell ahead of the line.  This easily could have produced a small tornado.  The thunderstorm had a hook.  Wow!

MAY 16 RADAR SIBLEY TORNADO CLOSE

 

 

There were many severe weather reports in the Plains Saturday with most of the tornadoes in southwest Oklahoma and north Texas.

MAY 16 STORM REPORTS WIDE

 

The weather today will be much calmer as highs reach the 80s.  It will be windy with gusts to 30-35 mph.  This is good for drying the ground out.

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Monday and Tuesday will be dry and cooler as the cold front in the northern Plains today comes through tonight, no thunderstorms.  Our next rain chance is Wednesday and this looks like a cold May rain.  We will have more on this in the coming days.

Have a great day

 

Jeff

Saturday severe update – running blog

***6pm Update***
The SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for these counties until 11pm tonight.
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This means the conditions could be favorable for tornadic development. Please heed all warnings tonight and stay weather aware.

PREVIOUS ENTRY (3:3opm)

We’re continue to watch the potential for severe weather to slide into our area later today into tonight. I plan to keep this entry running/updated as the night goes on. First off, let’s talk about where we are as of writing time, 3:30pm.

This is how the radar was looking.
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Here are the active watches we have in place at this time.
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The Storm Prediction Center has updated their severe outlook for today. They are focusing more on Southcentral Kansas into Oklahoma.
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The visible satellite picture gives a good idea of where a line of storms will continue to develop and grow. The sunshine (along with a few other factors) will really help to get things going in parts of Central Kansas over the next few hours.
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When it comes to the models, here is how the latest RPM plays things out around midnight tonight.
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And this is what the HRRR model is suggesting:
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The theme here is that the latest suite of guidance suggests we’ll get a heavier line of rain/storms in the area as we get closer to midnight. Those would then crawl through overnight into very early Sunday.

All in all, I do think we have to be careful for some stronger storms that may try to bubble up in the heat of the day (between about 6p and 8p). Those would be isolated. The greater threat for rain and thunderstorms in our area appears to be after about 10/11p tonight. However, by the time those storms get here, they may have lost a bit of their punch. That said, I would still expect some very heavy rain, a lot of thunder/lightning, and perhaps wind gusts near 55mph. It is not out of the question that the SPC issues a watch for our area of some kind. We do not control that, they do not ask us about it. It just happens. If/when it does, I’ll provide an update.

I’m in the weather center all evening and will be tracking things for you. Watch for occasional updates on my Twitter page (@jdrudd). We will have an hour long newscast from 6-7pm tonight, so be sure to watch then for the latest information.
In addition, our entire team is monitoring conditions as well as our chase crews. We are here to provide complete coverage in the event something really gets going tonight.
-JD

How could I forget… those going to the Royals game tonight, I have to allow for a pop-up thunderstorm, but I think the odds are low over the stadium (based on what I’ve seen so far). It will still be a warm, breezy, humid night though.
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Tough Saturday Forecast

Good Saturday bloggers,

There is a chance of severe weather in the Plains today.  However, like what has happened so many times this season it may be limited due to rain cooled air.  The upper level wave coming out of the southwest USA is quite impressive this afternoon, so there may still be severe weather despite the cooler temperatures.

Here is the latest outlook.  There is a moderate risk across western Kansas.  We are in a slight risk and this is for mainly tonight.  The thinking is that the severe thunderstorms forming in western Kansas will ride this way later tonight and weaken.

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Here is the radar from early Saturday morning.  Here we go again.  There is a large area of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the moderate risk area.  The clouds and rain will be slow to clear, so temperatures may very well be held down out west.  This is good new for those that do not want severe weather.  It will have to be watched closely this afternoon.

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Here is our latest thinking for the weather time line today.  The best chance for the stronger thunderstorms will be after 6 PM.  The activity now in central Kansas may bring a round of showers and heavier thunderstorms this afternoon.  We will see if this intensifies a bit.

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3 PM TODAY: It looks like new thunderstorms will form in the western Plains.  There is still a question on how severe they will be, but the upper level energy is so strong that some tornadoes are possible even if it is cooler.  Our area will have a few showers and thunderstorms.

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10 PM TONIGHT:   The thunderstorms that form in western Kansas will be heading our way and moving through.  We will have to watch for wind gusts over 50 MPH, quarter sized hail. very heavy rain and frequent lightning.

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This is not set in stone and meteorologist JD Rudd will have an update later this afternoon and evening.

Jeff

Is it going to happen again?

Good morning bloggers,

I have been working on our summer forecast that will be on the 10 PM newscast Tuesday night.  We will have a heat wave this summer, but the cold phase of the cycling weather pattern will come back smack in the middle of summer which will help out in producing many rain set-ups and cooler weather.  We will go over the details next week.

The title of today’s blog entry:  Is it going to happen again?  What do I mean by this? This season on many occasions we have had rain cooled air move in from the south and this has ended up keeping most of our viewing area severe weather free thus far this season, and now it’s May 15th. Could this happen once again on Saturday? Take a look at the GFS temperature forecast for Saturday afternoon:

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We will be going deeper into the warm sector and it will be interesting to see if morning thunderstorms form and once again influence the stability of the atmosphere.

day3otlk_0730The outlook from the Storm Prediction Center valid Saturday shows the enhanced slight risk west of KC once again.  I do not like that term enhanced, as it has been misused by national media sources.  It’s still a slight risk.  The surface frontal boundaries, or convergence zones are going to be way out over western Kansas. Conditions will be favorable for thunderstorms to go severe in that enhanced slight risk area, and once they form we will monitor the movement closely as they should arrive near KC sometime Saturday night.

We are tracking a disturbance approaching us from the south today. This may produce a somewhat organized area of showers and thunderstorms, that should be past us by the time the Royals and Yankees take the field tonight.  Have a great Friday. Look for a new blog entry later in the day.

Gary