How Much Rain Today & A Look Ahead

Good morning bloggers,

Rain and thunderstorms were heading our way as I am posting this early this morning.

4

 

Take a look at the radar at 6:30 AM:

1

We are finally about to experience a wide-spread rain event today. There is an upper level storm and a surface cold front approaching. The rain will continue off and on until this storm passes which will be much later today and this will allow a few spots to receive an inch of rain or more today.

Looking ahead to the weekend storm system, as usual we like to hold off on jumping to so many conclusions until we get within around this range, three days away. The trend on the models fits the LRC well and blows the dry line through Kansas Sunday into western Missouri by Sunday evening. There is a rather significant severe weather risk and the timing of the surface features is critical for our risk in Kansas City.  We will look deeper into this after the new data comes in today.

Have a great day, and let’s enjoy this rain event!

Gary

Severe Weather Risks

Good morning bloggers,

There is a slight risk of severe weather over western Kansas later today into tonight, and then there is an increasing risk of severe weather later this weekend into early next week farther east. Before we go into the bigger storm system, we have two chances of rain to discuss. The first one is arriving now with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible as you can see on this 6:50 AM radar map:

1

There is a disturbance moving across eastern Kansas this morning, and then a much stronger disturbance is approaching the area tonight.  We still haven’t broken the ice and Kansas City is falling farther behind 0n rainfall. Even this mornings rain is concentrated on the Nebraska border and moving east.  Today’s disturbance is actually moving through a ridge and associated with a  weak warm front moving through. Tonight’s wave of energy is much stronger and we will be monitoring it closely for thunderstorm development to our west.  Thunderstorms and rain will be likely during the first half of Thursday, but again are we in the weakest spot for rainfall? It certainly looks that way to me right now.

The better chance of heavier rainfall will arrive this weekend as a storm approaches:

1

This weekend storm will be getting caught in a blocking pattern aloft. I discuss this block on the blog at www.weather2020.com.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

A great day & then a big change!

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is about to amplify again, and this time block up a bit. It is the one part of the pattern that has shown some blocking in past cycles. Take a look at what this pattern has done to our area in the previous three cycles by reading the Weather 2020 blog:  Polar Vortex Part Of The LRC.  The storm that is peaking my interest right now is the one that will begin affecting the United States Friday into Saturday. There is a lead storm ahead of that stronger weekend storm system and this may bring some severe weather to the plains on Wednesday into Thursday:

2

 

It will be a beautiful day today, and we will go in-depth into this forecast on 41 Action News.  Have a  great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

Rain All Around Us

Good morning bloggers,

It has continued to be a struggle to experience wide spread rainfall, and today continues that trend. There has been rain all around Kansas City, but as of 7 AM there are many spots that have not even had one drop. This may be about to change during the next couple of hours, but it is still quite frustrating. The rain has been moving so slowly as a very weak upper level low moves by.

4

1

As you can see above, we are way below average on rainfall for the past three years plus the first few months of 2014.  And, today’s rain is just a band of showers moving by with a few heavier downpours.  The area just west of Kansas City was growing as I was writing this, but it still isn’t very organized.

Have a great start to the week and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

Easter Sunday Thoughts

Happy Easter Sunday bloggers,

It will be a beautiful day with some increasing clouds. The chance of rain with a few thunderstorms will be increasing tonight into Monday. Hopefully it will come together as we need the rain. It should be great for a Royals sixth win in a row out at the K today.  Here is one rainfall forecast that just came out this morning. This is the NAM total rainfall forecast by Monday evening:

1

 

Have a great day!

Gary