Some Rain Enters The Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern continues to go through it’s seasonal transition.  Right now, as we continue to wait for our first freeze, the weather pattern is anything but a cold one.  Back in 1996 on this date there was a 6 to 8 inch snowstorm in what was called “the October Surprise”.  Rain changed to snow as Kansas City had it’s first freeze that year with a temperature of 32 degrees with very heavy snow. Look around today!  You will see that all of the trees are full of leaves changing color. Well, in 1996, that heavy snow caused the power lines to crash down as the tree branches broke and fell into them. There were major power outages.

2It was a strong, or really a powerful storm system that formed into a deep upper love right over Kansas. A cold and dry air mass was in place over the northern plains and this cold air got pulled into the developing system.  I was working the morning shift and predicting very heavy rain that may change to snow. That morning when the rain started changing to snow, Dave Beausterin a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, called me and thought we may get 1-3 inches of snow. By noon it was snowing like crazy, and we updated the forecast many times and the temperature dropped to 32 degrees with around 8 inches on the ground and weighting down the trees to cause the power outages.  The lowest the temperature got was 32°. It was really an incredible weather day.

The storm that is approaching now is not even close to a storm of the strength of that one in 1996.

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There will be bands of clouds today with a few sprinkles around, but most of the day will be dry.  It will be another really nice night for baseball.  A weak storm system will swing across the plains early Thursday bringing with it a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. The system will be all stretched out, and yet strong enough to produce this forecast band of rain:

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After this goes by, we are expecting a big warm-up into the weekend.  Now, let’s score some runs tonight and get this World Series even.  Have a great day!

Gary

Great World Series Weather

Good morning bloggers,

Can you believe it? The Kansas City Royals are in the World Series against the San Francisco Giants. Every morning, when I wake up, I just can’t believe it. It is like a dream.  Well, it’s real and it begins tonight. The weather could not be any better as we move into the last week of October.

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The weather for Wednesdays game also looks great. There is a little system that will sneak past our area on Thursday.

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We will discuss this chance of rain today and tonight. It will come in way after the game Wednesday night.  I just got back from Las Vegas, and I am back on the air tonight on 41 Action News.  Here is an exhibit I had walked be a few times, and finally went downstairs to see what this scary exhibit was all about.

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Have a great Tuesday. We will look ahead into the changing weather pattern in Wednesday’s blog.

Gary

Boring for us is great for you!

Meteorologists across most of the country are having the same problem today: finding something to talk about! Another day of benign weather for most of the USA. But boring for us is good for you!
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The map above shows current alerts across the country. There is an area near the East Coast that is under active frost advisories. You’ll also notice a few counties lit up in Arkansas (Flood warnings) and in Arizona (blowing dust), but everyone else is quiet. No severe weather in the continental US again today. Not that I am complaining at all, it’s just rare to have multiple days of quiet weather from coast to coast.

I still do not expect things to change much. I won’t rehash the blog from last night, but I’ll just say this: Chamber weather. This is the kind of stuff the chamber of commerce loves! Not too hot, not too cool. No rain, no snow, no major wind. It’s all perfect weather to show off a town. Fitting since the San Francisco Giants are on the way in for the big game.

We do have a couple events going on in Kansas City to start the week. For starters, Monday night World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) will bring their flagship show “Raw” to the Sprint Center. While there may be a stigma around the sport of wrestling, it’s still an economic advantage for the cities that host the event. This will pull in people from surrounding areas to watch the show. Moreover, it’s broadcast around the world live. So many will get to see our beautiful city shining brightly. And, the weather is going to be great.
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Then starting on Tuesday, it’s the event we’ve been waiting almost thirty years to witness: the World Series in Kansas City. And here again, you really could not ask for better weather.
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Wednesday is almost a direct copy of Tuesday, except the cloud should thicken up as we go through the day. I don’t think any rain falls from those clouds until Thursday. Then after that, indications are we’ll begin to warm right back up into the 70s. Not bad at all.

I hope you all enjoy the excitement and the attention that is on our area. It’s going to be  a heck of a ride. As for me, I get to take a few days off. But you can bet I’ll be cheering on the Royals just like many of you!
-JD

A warming trend coming our way

Days like this, it’s tough to find things to write about in the ol’ blog! Despite a chilly morning with lows in the lower 40s, we managed to bounce into the lower 60s this afternoon with lots of sunshine.
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As I pointed out in the newscast tonight, there is a subtle little swirl in the upper atmosphere near the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. This is going to continue to drift to the East and I do not expect it to impact our weather much at all.
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To break this down and get a little nerdy for a second, I checked out the guidance for Sunday in the mid to upper levels for moisture. Images like this one…
500mb
Gives me confidence that we’ll likely see more in the way of mid to higher level clouds on Sunday.  Surface winds are expected to be out of the South but as you can see here, upper winds will be from the West to Southwest. So I think that even though we’ll have less sunshine Sunday, our temperatures will still be warmer (by about 5-7 degrees). All-in-all, it’s shaping up to be a nice day! And I tell you what, that warming trend just continues.
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The only day of the next 7-10 that looks below average to me is Thursday. We could also see some rain that day too. Models are just now picking up on it, but I continue to raise my eyebrow. Recall last week models were saying we’d have rain tomorrow into Monday. That’s obviously not going to happen. So while both the Euro and the GFS are calling for it, I want to give it one more day before I really believe it. Right now I am keeping the chance at just 30%. It’s possible it does what the little disturbance in the panhandles is doing now: not much.

Let’s talk Royals weather, huh? This is looking great! Game one is on Tuesday and it’s truly going to be awesome.
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Don’t forget we’re getting toward the time of the year where highs will happen around 3 to 4pm and then the sun will set around 6:30pm or so (even though there will still be light in the sky). This means temperatures will quickly level off around sunset. So Tuesday afternoon will be warm, but by game time we’ll already have lost some of that warmth. Hey, it’s Fall after all! We haven’t played baseball in KC this late in the season in a very long time.

Speaking of Fall, how about the colors on those trees? Amazing to see, isn’t it?
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Have your cameras handy and take a few pictures of the great colors over the next few days and weeks (be sure to submit them to our site & maybe we’ll feature a few on air). It’s going to look great out there.

Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!
-JD

Minor change for Friday, but steady as she goes for us

Still soaking in that Royals win? I know many are! If only the weather here was as exciting, right? We have a pretty ho-hum forecast in store for the next several days. That said, there is a weak little cold front knocking on our door tonight.

Looking at just the surface temps, it’s not easy to find.
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However, looking at the winds and dew points, it becomes a little easier to see. And with that, you get an image like this:
SFC
So as you can see, we actually have two cold fronts looming to the North. The one that is passing through now will drop our temps by about 8-12 degrees for Friday. Considering we made the upper 70s today, that’s not too bad at all! But that second wave will arrive by Saturday morning. That means we’ll start out chilly and not warm up all that much.

Looking over all the information, models are clustering around 42/41 for lows Saturday and Sunday morning. High temps for Saturday are pegged to be around 61 and then on Sunday we had about six degrees.
My method of forecasting involves looking at several different models and seeing the trends as well as finding a rough average. So in this case, for Saturday, models say 60, 61, 62, 61, 62. On Sunday, it’s: 67, 68, 67, 66. Based on that, and the fact we’ve been getting a touch warmer than guidance has suggested lately, I’m optimistic about the “high end” of those values. You’ll see that reflected in my forecast.
Just like an artist can “see” things differently sometimes, forecasters can too. Gather four or five forecasts in a room, give them the same exact data and say “make a forecast”… you’ll probably get something a little different from each one. So if you ever wonder why place so-and-so says xx and other place yadda-yadda says xx, now you know!

Let’s talk about the Tropics a little bit. There is a MAJOR storm setting aim on Bermuda tonight. Look at this thing from the satellite picture:
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Right now, the eye is going through a regeneration. Earlier today that eyewall was much larger. The latest hurricane recon that flew through the storm verifies that a new wall is setting up. That means this monster is maintaining strength as it heads Northeast.
At latest report (8p) is a category 4 storm with winds sustained at 145mph. It is expected to pass just to the West of Bermuda tomorrow (Friday) afternoon.

A look at a few of the snapshots from the projected path:
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Hurricane

Bermuda is the home to about 65,ooo people. In the last 24 hours there have been photos of people lined up at the airport, trying to get off the island. As about 7p tonight, the last flight left. Those who did not get aboard a plane are there to ride this out. It’s going to be a frightening time, no doubt. And you cannot get caught up in the category number. A big concern with this will be the ocean swells. We’re talking walls of water measured in feet that will slam against the island. Add in the 100+ mile per hour winds, and it’s not going to be pretty.

The last major hurricane to strike Bermuda was Fabian in 2003, a Category 3 storm that killed four people. And while the newest forecast show the center will pass just to the West of the island, that’s not always a good thing.
The colored circles you see on those last two images indicate where the strongest winds will be. So it’s obvious the entire island is going to be trampled by this storm.

We will continue to watch all of this and give updates. In the meantime, I almost feel guilty that our weather is so quiet compared to what those poor people are about to face.

To end this on a happier note: I took a look back at the weather we had in Kansas City for the 1985 World Series. Here’s what I found, showcased in a somewhat “retro” looking graphic:
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And it looks like things are shaping to be a little nicer this time around for those first two games: sunshine and temps in the mid to upper 60s.

-JD