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Putting the “fry” in Friday

You think it’s been hot this summer? You haven’t felt anything yet.

As we go into Friday, a warm front is set to move across the area. This will swing the winds to the South/Southwest and increase to around 10-20mph. We will be in the perfect setup to see highs temperatures soar. By now, you’ve probably heard what we’re thinking: 100°.
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Toss in the higher dewpoints and we’ll have heat index values near 105° to 110° in the afternoon. We’re going to fry. And it will probably seem extra hot because we’ve been a little spoiled this summer.
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July is supposed to be a hot month. So far this year, we’ve only had four days above 90°. Last July, we had nine days and the July before that, 29 days. A big change for sure. And when it comes to the 100° forecast for Friday, we have not been that hot since September of last year.
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Needless to say, if you work outside, Friday is a day to make sure you take plenty of breaks, drink a good amount of water, and check on the pets. Being out in 100° with a fur coat is no fun. And it’s sad we have to mention this, but DO NOT leave children or pets in a vehicle. It’s life-threatening.

So switch gears, the Royals return home tonight. This should be a great night for a baseball game:
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Now that said, if you’re going to the game Friday night, it will be a much different story. The game will likely start out with temps in the upper 90s and stay pretty steamy throughout the game. Use caution if attending Friday’s game.

By next week, we get a break in the heat. The jetstream takes a dip again and this will force the hot air back to the SW part of the country (where it’s been baking for days) and open the door for us to cool back down.
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On another weather story today, a possible tornado hit the Cherrystone campground in Northhapton, Virginia earlier this morning. A large tree fell on a tent and many RVs were flipped. The local fire department reports three people have died due to this storm and more than a dozen people injured. At this time, the NWS has not done their assessment so they cannot confirm a tornado touchdown. It’s possible this may have been straight-line wind damage. This is a developing weather & news story that we will continue to follow. Look for more updates on our newscasts today.

Photo via: WWBT-TV and shot by Joe Buttner

80 Degree Dew Point Watch

Good evening bloggers,

8:20 PM Update:

I am not sure if I have ever experienced this before, but the dew point is now right around 80 degrees and there wasn’t a cloud in sight when I was writing this.  The part I don’t believe I have experienced is the fact that there wasn’t one cloud and there is a cold front right over the city.  Thunderstorms have formed southeast of Kirksville. Let’s watch radar closely.  Here are the dew points as of 8 PM:

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Previous entry below:

There is a weak cold front approaching, with a stronger cold front due in around Sunday.  A few showers and thunderstorms should form near the frontal zone later this evening, but the atmosphere seems capped a bit once again. It may be closer to sunset or after before the thunderstorms develop.  It would be nice for the lawn to get a nice drink, but right now the chance is just 30%.  The dew point as of 5 PM reached 76°.  The temperature just reached the forecast high of 99° downtown, and it is approaching the forecast high of 97° at KCI Airport, although we may fall a degree short.  Here are the temperatures as of 5 PM:

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With the dew points approaching that elusive 80° level this humidity is combining with the heat to create high heat index values:

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You may be able to make out that very thin line on radar as of 5:30 PM.  These small cells have yet to break through the cap, but if they do then there will be a chance of a few microbursts this evening with all of the heat ahead of the front:

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Have a great evening. We will be monitoring this closely on 41 Action News.

Gary

 

The Hottest Day of the Year

Good morning Bloggers,

We have seen five days this year with a temperature of 90 degrees and above and this includes yesterday’s daytime high temperature of 92°.  Today will likely be the hottest day of the year with a daytime high of 97°, but it could feel 10 degrees hotter.

We have a Heat Advisory in place until 7 p.m this evening.  Highs will reach the upper 90s but heat index values will range from the 105° to 115°.

HEAT ADVISORY

It will be humid and breezy with a southwest wind between 10 to 20 miles per hour.

Please remember to check on small children, elderly, anyone susceptible to the heat and pets.  Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, wear loose-fitting clothing, light colored clothing, and go to A/C spots when you can.

There is a chance for severe weather this evening mainly for areas north and along I-70. Main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado threat will stay across NE Missouri.

SLIGHT RISK TUESDAY

 

This is all ahead of cold front that will move through later this evening.

COLD FRONT

After the cold front moves through, cooler air will move in and it will not be as hot for Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs for Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Stay cool,

Michelle

www.twitter.com/MichelleApon

The Heat is On

Good Morning Bloggers!

After a great start to July, we are going to turn up the heat.  Here is a look at the last couple of weeks plus today’s high temperature:

highs this month

So we can’t really complain about the next few days can we? Plus we have only had 4 days in the 90s  this summer…4 DAYS!  I’d say this summer is a breeze compared to many hot and humid years.

july 90s

Despite all that we will be hot and humid today and tomorrow with high temperatures reaching into the lower to middle 90s and when you add in humidity it feels like 100° to 105° outside.  Heat Advisory in effect from noon today through Tuesday at 7 pm.

heat advisory

Please take care of yourself, your pets and your neighbors.  Remember even when the temperature is just 80 degrees if you are stuck in a hot car for 10 minutes it will 99 degrees in the car. Please don’t leave children or pets in vehicles.

What do you do to stay cool when it gets this hot?

Kalee Dionne

Sunday afternoon update

Nothing major to report this afternoon. We’ve enjoyed a mostly sunny sky across the area. Despite that sunshine, our temperature CONTINUES to struggle to warm-up at KCI. I have noticed this a lot this year: on days where it should be warm; days with full-on sunshine, we still have a hard time getting the warmer readings.
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Obviously, you go a little more West and they are having no trouble at all. I cannot figure out what the problem is here. It’s sunny across the entire area…winds are out of the South/Southeast for all the areas (expect Manhattan). And maybe that’s it. I learned quickly that in the summer months across Kansas, as soon as the winds go to the Southwest, temps get cranking. So perhaps that’s the one ingredient we’re lacking in this weather cake: a SW wind.
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You can see the wall-to-wall sunshine across the area. I have also highlighted the smoke/haze that appears to still be lingering over parts of Missouri. That stems from those wildfires up in the Pacific NW and Canada.

As we go into the week ahead, it still appears we are on track to really warm up. I have, however, pulled highs back a bit for Monday. Why? As mentioned above, we just cannot seem to get the big heat in place. And since winds will still be out of the South Monday, I feel I need to undercut the forecast guidance.
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That said, this is not the full story. Our dewpoints will continue to climb and when we combine those surface temperatures with the dew points (in the 70s), we’ll wind up with some high heat index values. This is what it *feels* like to you body. Due to these expected high values, the NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for Monday and Tuesday.
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Make sure to drink plenty of water if you’ll be outside for long periods of time (working, exercising, playing), and please do not forget about children and pets.  They make not be able to tell you how hot they feel and this kind of heat can sneak up on them.
The good news here: there is some relief headed our way soon. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak cold front should pass through the area. This will knock temps back into the mid to upper 80s, plus give us that small chance for a few thunderstorms and showers.
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I don’t intend to burst any bubbles, but at this time, I am not seeing signs for widespread and meaningful rain from this. So my thought is: don’t plan to pick up significant rain. There will be some lucky areas that do see the rain, but I think they may be few and far between. It’s summer; it is supposed to be hot and dry. Great time to find a pool.

-JD

Summer Heat Arrives then Exits

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

I went to the pool on Saturday and it was just barely warm enough as we struggled to reach 80°.  Today we will rise to the mid to upper 80s, so it will be a better pool day than Saturday.  The thick haze may be playing a role in keeping us cooler than our forecasts.  The haze is from smoke at around 30,000 feet.  It arrived on northwest flow a few days ago from the Pacific northwest and northwest Canada where forest fires are raging.  Our flow aloft is now weak and the smoke seems to be stuck over our skies.  So, we will see how high the temperatures actually go the next few days.

Today through Tuesday will see an anticyclone (heat wave creator) build into the Plains from the southern Rockies.  The center of the upper level high will be over New Mexico and southwest Texas, so we will not feel the full affect of the heat.  Some summers the anticyclone dominates, but not this summer.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY

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Highs will be in the 90s Monday and Tuesday as the anticyclone builds in.  However, by Wednesday the anticyclone will retreat and the first of many cold fronts will be arriving.  Out highs will be back down to the 80s by Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

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We are still in the same pattern, so when the thunderstorm chances arrive, most likely we will be on the edge of the most significant rain.  We will see how this evolves.  We expect the cold fronts to keep coming into August, so no big heat waves in the forecast.

Have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead.

Jeff

Shed the sweaters & fire up the fans

For the first time in a long time, I am looking forward to seeing my electric bill next month. A whole week with highs in the 70s gave many A/Cs a break across the area. When it comes to saving money, many will be thankful for that. Then again, the money saved might go into offsetting the energy that will be used this coming week. Summer looks to finally wake up and return to the area. Before we start talking about that, let’s get a handle on what’s going on today.
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As expected, puffy cumulus clouds have formed around the greater KC area. No threat of rain from these clouds. Although I am sure at times it may look like it WANTS to rain. We won’t be that lucky today. And when it comes to temperatures, while it is a little warmer today, we’re still well below where we should be for this time of year.
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Kansas City *should* get above 80° today and that will be the first time that’s happened since last Sunday. Incredible to think about. We had five days in a row with highs below 80°…in middle July! That’s got to be some kind of a record, right? Well… no, not really. But it is a little rare.
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The last time we had five days in a row of highs less than 80° in July was back in 2004.  Before that, it happened in 1998. Of the other times in which we’ve had five days in a row below 80°, most happen toward the end of the month. That struck me as interesting. Is there some kind of decade pattern here? Tough to say.

Gary and I did some research the other day, and just looking at this year to last year, we have really gotten a break from the Summertime heat. The graphic below is for the month of July through the 18th of the month.
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But going back one year prior (2012) was the year we were scorching almost every day in July. In that year, we had 14 days of highs at or above 100°. We have yet to heat the century mark this year and it’s looking more and more like it may not happen. If I were a betting man, I’d guess we may touch 100° once, but very briefly (perhaps for one hour). Again, that’s just me free-thinking; not based off any kind of hard science or pattern.

With that said, we are moving more into a Summer-like setup across the area for the week ahead. A bit of a “ridge” in the atmosphere will setup over Kansas. This ridge, or bubble, in the atmosphere will basically allow us to heat up pretty quickly. What about rain? It does not appear to me that we’ll be under the center of this ridge, nor will it be that strong of a ridge. Sometimes in the summer (when I worked in Wichita) we’d call it a “death ridge” because the overall ridge in the atmosphere was so high and strong, there was no way any rain/storms would happen and we’d just sit there and cook all day.
In regards to this coming week, the KC area appears to be on the fringe of the ridge. I believe that will allow us a small chance for heat-of-the-day storms to develop (particularly) on Monday & Tuesday. These would be very isolated and it’d be like playing the Weather Lottery: many will hope and wish, but few will win.
Come Wednesday & Thursday, the ridge may lose some of its strength, this would allow us a better chance for rain & thunderstorms to form.
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Obviously, that’s still a few days away and things may still change as we get more into the week. What I do think will happen is an increase in the heat & humidity. As of today, this is how I see things playing out:
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Needless to say, the A/Cs will be working again this week. And those with pool plans, this should be perfect weather for you. As you make plans to be outside, drink plenty of water and be sure to stay away of signs of heat exhaustion.

Have a nice evening and I will see you tonight on 41 Action News.
-JD

Temperature Trend is Up

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

Did you notice the haze on Friday and again this morning?  This is smoke at about 30,000 feet from fires in northwest Canada and the Pacific Northwest.  The smoke came down on northwest flow, now it seems to be stuck or drifting around.  We will see if it drifts out, but the flow aloft is weak, so it will likely be in our sky for awhile.  Also, we will begin to pick up haze from the heat, humidity and stagnant air. So, it looks like a hazy few days.

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We have had 5 straight days with highs in the 70s!  It has not been very good pool weather.  This is about to change as an anticyclone expands north and east into the Plains.  The anticyclone is the opposite of a cyclone, a storm system.  We sometimes call the anticyclone the “heat wave creator”.  We will likely fall short of a heat wave as the center of the anticyclone stays to the west.  We will see highs in the low to mid 90s next week.

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Now, even though we may fall short of a heat wave, there is little chance of rain until the end of next week.  So, if you want to keep the lawn green, a day or two of sprinklers will be needed.  The good news is that more cold fronts and rain chances arrive at the end of next week and will last into August.

The warming trend begins today.  Here are maps of the highs today, Sunday and Monday.

HIGHS SATURDAY:  We will reach the low 80s

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HIGHS SUNDAY:

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HIGHS MONDAY:

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Enjoy the warmer summer weather and have a great weekend.

Jeff

 

Next Storm System, A Miss

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We broke a record low this morning for the second straight day.  We dropped to 55°, which broke the old record of 57° set in 1985.  A large Canadian surface high pressure has been in control.  The humidity has been low, so with the clear nights, temperatures are allowed to drop with good radiational cooling conditions.

The next two nights will not be clear and the surface high will be drifting away so our winds become light from the southeast.  The reason we are not going to have a clear sky that there is a storm system dropping southeast into western Nebraska from the northern Rockies.  This storm system will bring some great rainfall to the western and southern Plains.  They still need every drop.  Amounts will run .50″-2″ with some spots seeing 2″-5″.

MAP #1: Water vapor image from 11 AM Wednesday

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Based on all of the new data, this storm will track too far south and west of our area to bring much rain.  We will see lots of clouds Thursday and Friday.  We may see a brief shower Thursday night into Friday or perhaps some drizzle.  Thursday will see a thickening overcast, but should stay dry.  Friday is looking like a cloudy day with highs near 70 as the low level moisture from the storm to the south gets transported north.

Here is a break down of the weather for the next two days from our latest Powercast.

MAP #2: Thursday at 7 AM.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be occurring across Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, while we stay dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

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MAP #3: Thursday at 3 PM.  We are mostly cloudy as the rain continues from Wichita to Tulsa to Springfield.  Out highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, a nice day.

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MAP #4: Friday at 5 PM.  There is very little rain around, but the sky is mostly cloudy. It looks like it will be a low overcast and perhaps some drizzle.  So, Friday will struggle to reach 70°.

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If you are wondering when we will return to decent pool weather, (It needs to be 85° or higher and humid for me to swim!) it will be this weekend as highs reach the low 80s Saturday and near 90° on Sunday.

One other issue.  Since, we are missing this wet storm, there is not much rain in the forecast for the next 7-10 days.  So, if you want to keep your yard green, you will need the sprinklers.

Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff

A Montana Storm Has Our Attention

Good evening bloggers,

There is a storm spinning in Montana, as you can see on this Water Vapor Satellite picture from 4:16 PM Tuesday.  The models are all handling this system in their own ways and the solutions vary widely.  This storm is forecast to move southeast across Kansas Thursday and then turn east.  How will it impact our area?

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The latest NAM model has another new solution, but still has some rain sneaking into the south side of Kansas City. We have a tough forecast ahead of us and Kalee will begin with an update at 4:30 AM.

Gary