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Wild Weather!

Good Wednesday,

The next five days of weather are going to be crazy across the middle of the country with severe weather, flooding, frost, freezes and snow as we track three storm systems, the strongest this weekend.  Kansas City seems to be in the more tame part as we will see several periods of rain, but should avoid the severe weather and snow.  We could have frost or light freezes.  There is much to discuss so let’s get started.

WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW: There is a weakening upper low moving into Minnesota as a stronger system rotates around it. As of this blog writing it is centered in southwest Oklahoma on its way to the Great Lakes by Thursday.  Our area will be on the northwest side of a rain comma head as severe weather breaks out in the warmer air from Arkansas to the Tennessee Valley.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE MAP: We are firmly in the cold air, but the juicy warm air is located from Texas to the Midwest.  The cold front plus system mentioned above will come together to create the conditions for a potential severe weather outbreak.

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WEDNESDAY WEATHER TRACK RADAR 845 AM: There are already thunderstorms in northwest Arkansas and this is the kind of day when you have the morning activity, the afternoon activity follows in a similar location.  There is an area of showers in the Texas panhandle near the main upper low.  We will be on the northwest edge of this comma head this afternoon and evening.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: You can see the best chance of rain is along and southeast of I-35 as the comma head forms.  Severe thunderstorms are exploding from Arkansas to southeast Missouri.  It will be tough to get out of the 40s today in KC, especially if it rains.

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WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: It looks like Arkansas is the bulls eye.  The details of the severe weather will depend on any left over boundaries from the morning thunderstorms and placement of the surface low, a complex pattern.

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We just finished today, now lets get to Thursday, woosh!

THURSDAY MORNING: This will be a calmer day, but during the morning a frost/freeze is likely across Nebraska and the Dakotas.  We will see lows 34-38 and could see some frost.  It will depend on the timing of the clearing and lessening of the wind.  You can see the next system already taking shape in the Rockies.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY:  The second system to track is spreading rain and a few non-severe thunderstorms across Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri, mostly north of I-70.  This is not a strong storm, but we should see some rain from this system, especially Thursday night and early Friday

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THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: This a calmer and cool day, but there is a marginal severe weather risk from Michigan to the gulf coast as the weakening system from today moves away.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY:  This is when the third and biggest storm affects the middle of the USA.  It will not really get its act together until Friday night as it drops into the southwest USA.  It will move slowly east Saturday and eject quickly towards the Great Lakes Sunday.  An unseasonably cold air mass will be in place across the northern and central Plains and a very warm and humid air mass will be in place from the southern Plains to southeast USA.  This will set up a large area of over running precipitation from Texas/Oklahoma to the southern Midwest.  Very heavy rain and flash flooding are likely along with severe weather.  We will most likely be located in an area where we will see periods of rain, heavy at times, with perhaps a few thunderstorms.  We could see some flooding as well.  Temperatures this weekend around here will be in the 30s and 40s.  A snowstorm is possible in Colorado, western Kansas, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles to western Nebraska.  The winter wheat crop out there has been on a wild ride with drought, wind , fires, heavy rain and now snow.  The snow may be a good thing to protect the wheat from freeze, but it is also tall, so all kinds of questions with the wheat.  If we were going to have a freeze it would be Monday morning, but wind and clouds may help out.

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FRIDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: This is the current day 3 severe weather risk, but it may wait until Friday night and Saturday to really get going.  But, it gives you an idea of what we are dealing with.

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This is about as active and crazy as it gets and we will have updates tomorrow on the next two storm systems,

Have a great day, rest of your week and weekend.

Jeff

Slight Risk Tonight

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Partly cloudy & warm.  No chance of rain with south winds 10-25 mph.  High: 77°
  • Tonight:  Thunderstorms developing near a cold front. The chance of rain is highest along and southeast of I-35 around 8 PM to 11 PM. Low:  49°

The weather pattern is now becoming more active for around the next two weeks. There are still many questions for each days chances for rain, thunderstorms, snow, and severe weather. The SPC has a slight risk placed over the plains today.

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There is a capping layer aloft over Kansas today and this will prevent thunderstorms from forming before around 7 PM. The thunderstorms that do form after 7 PM may become severe with large hail being the main threat tonight near the slowly advancing cold front and surface low. The surface low is forecast to be over southwestern Oklahoma.

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As you can see above the tornado risk is quite low with todays set up nationwide. The slight risk extends from around Kansas City to Oklahoma City with large hail being the main risk type.

What is forecast to happen next later tonight on Wednesday has been throwing the models for a loop. Take a look at the GFS and the NAM model solutions:

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Look closely at northern Oklahoma into northern Kansas . The top map shows the GFS model solution which is all phased. The NAM model solution creates a separation and a weak upper low is trying to form between Tulsa, OK and Chanute, KS. If this separation develops, then the comma head has a chance of forming with heavy rain and thunderstorms moving up the Kansas/Missouri state line. But, if the GFS solution is correct the comma head does not form in that location and all of the rain will shift to eastern Missouri and fast.

ONLY the NAM model creates this deeper separation. The GFS, European Model, and Canadian model all don’t separate the flow enough. So, we have to then go with this 1 out of 4 chance of this happening, or a 75% chance it does not. This would leave areas north of I-70 with only that 25% chance of rain and thunderstorms after that front moves by.

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The severe weather risk then increases on Wednesday from northern Louisiana into eastern Missouri. Let’s see how this all plays out in the next 24 hours. Have a great day and thank you for participating in the weather experience.

Gary

A Great Day Today, Then Big Changes!

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is going to be rather active this week with the potential for a severe weather outbreak by the weekend. Remember, as we showcased a few days ago, and forecasted 60 days ago, this part of the pattern has produced a major severe weather outbreak in the previous cycle. It most likely will target the same areas as that one, but we have to monitor it closely.

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The models are all over the place on possible solutions. This forecast map above shows the 114 hour GFS 500 mb forecast valid Friday night, April 28th. A deep upper low and storm system is forecast to develop over the four corner states. This will deepen, move slowly, and impact the plains and western states for a few days.

There is a lead storm and front that will be moving across the plains Tuesday into the upper midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Here is the surface map valid at 7 PM Tuesday.

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This forecast for Tuesday is rather complex, and this complexity will continue from day to day the rest of the week as that bigger trough develops. The first cold front coming our way Tuesday night looks rather strong. Some snow will be likely over the mountains and western plains. Thunderstorms will likely form Tuesday evening near and behind that strong front.

day2otlk_0600It is a rather difficult set up to figure out exactly where the severe weather risk will be on Tuesday evening. The front will be on the move and the thunderstorms that form will likely initially be fairly strong. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this small slight risk area centered near Joplin, MO Tuesday evening.

The risks will be much more significant by Friday or Saturday. Cold air will be a factor later in the week. We will have to be monitoring the day to day surface developments. The big target is right where the severe weather occurred on February 28th. Here is what happened that day:

This is the map we posted a few days ago, and it seems to be right on target for around Friday or Saturday. When you look at this forecast map below, you can see that the same areas are being targeted on the evening of April 30th:

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The cold air may be a bigger factor farther west near Kansas City. Take a look at this forecast map valid one day earlier:

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This map shows the storm as it is still out west and about to move out into the plains Kansas City is deep into the cold air at this point which may protect Tornado Alley from being targeted.

There is a lot to analyze in the coming days with this unique and complex set up. Thank you for participating in this LRC Forecast Experience blog. Thank you for all of the birthday messages coming in from the various social media sources. Yes, I am a ridiculously old 55 today. Wow!

Gary

Active Weather Begins Tuesday Night

Good Sunday,

We are in for a near perfect Sunday of weather with full sunshine, light winds and highs around 70°.  Tonight will be clear and cool with lows in the 40s.  Monday will become windy with highs 70°-75°.  Then, the pattern gets rather active as a storm system forms Tuesday, bringing a strong cold front through.  This is followed by storm systems Wednesday and Friday-Saturday.  Click on the video below for a detailed look at this upcoming active weather pattern.

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Have a great week.

Jeff

Calmer Weather for a Few Days

Good Saturday,

The current storm is over and it just missed KC as we were expecting, but boy did it come close.  Look at the radar from around 1 AM Saturday.  Paola to La Cygne to Butler was seeing some rather heavy rain with very little rain in KC.  If the northern edge was 20 miles further north it is a different story for the city.  This is not much of a difference meteorologically, but to us it makes a huge difference.

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RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS: There was some nice rain from Garnett to Clinton.  Remember, these are radar estimated totals, so your rain gauge may have a much different reading.

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RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS (2):

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The weather is now looking great through Tuesday as the storm is moving away.  Let’s go through the weather Saturday-Monday.

SATURDAY: The sky will clear from north to south.  So, highs will range from the 60s north to 50s south.  Highs may stay in the 40s along I-44 where clouds and rain will linger much of the day.  It will be a bit windy with a northeast wind at 10-25 mph.

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SUNDAY MORNING: It will be clear, calm and cold as highs pressure settles over the Plains.  There may be some frost around the area as lows drop to the 30s.  A few pockets may see lows 29-32, mostly west of KC, closer to the surface high pressure.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The weather will be about as nice as it gets with sunshine, light wind and highs around 70°.

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MONDAY: This will be a windy and warmer day with highs in the 70s.  The cold front to the north will drift in by Tuesday.  This will be the start of a more active weather pattern Wednesday-Friday.  Gary showed this potential in Friday’s blog and we will look more at it on Sunday.

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RAINFALL TOTALS: The pattern changed in early October.  As we know it was quite dry during the winter and has become wetter during the spring.  However, we are still around 4″ below average rainfall since October 8th, despite being around 1″ above average for 2017.

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Have a great weekend and enjoy the great spring weather.

Jeff

 

This Weekend Storm & Next Week’s Bigger Risk

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system is moving into the plains today. There is a small enhanced slight risk area that we will discuss in a minute. A much more significant severe weather risk is likely later this month as many of you have been discussion and wondering about in recent blog comments. One of the bigger forecasts we made using the LRC for around April 28th, give or take a day or two, is now showing up on the models and we will discuss this today as well. I am speaking at the big NPGA Southeastern Conference & International Propane Expo tomorrow morning. Weather2020 is the featured weather company for long range weather forecasting at this conference. I will let you know how it is received as we discuss the cycling weather pattern.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly cloudy and staying dry. High: 56° Some rain may get into the south side of the metro this evening
  • Tonight: Rain spreads into communities south of KC. It may get as far north as I-70 or a bit more. Northern Missouri will stay dry.
  • Saturday: Rain ends early. High 57°

Today’s Risk:

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The enhanced slight risk is located near the Red River Valley on the Oklahoma/Texas border. Farther north there will be a well defined cut-off line for rain. Take a look at these two rainfall forecasts with that cut-off line forecast to set up near I-70:

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The European Model above and the GFS model below have come into somewhat of an agreement.

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Let’s monitor this weekend storm closely. And, let’s now look ahead to next weeks much bigger potential for severe weather.

The LRC & Late April

We have never quite shown the LRC this way with storm reports from the past. What I am showing here is an actual two day outbreak that happened in the last cycle. Usually I show this type of comparison after the next cycle or two produced similar results. I hope that this doesn’t materialize, but we have high confidence that the risks will be increasing later next week as the pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC in the 56 to 61 day range centered on around 58-59 days. These two maps below show the storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC):

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There were 72 tornado reports in the outbreak on day 1 on February 28th and another 18 on day 2 of this severe weather outbreak. There were over 1200 severe weather reports during this two day event. The same areas will likely be targeted again, but there should be a seasonal westward shift just a bit which will bring the risk into part of tornado alley.

LRC Cycle 4 April 28 GFS

This forecast map above shows the “dangerous” energy dropping into the southern Rocky Mountains right on April 28th, one week from today. This will likely help set up the surface conditions for another two to three day severe weather risk over the plains and extending into the Mississippi River Valley once again. Let’s not get too specific yet.

Have a great Friday. The LLTI could go into effect for this first storm as I am on my way to the airport now. Have a great weekend. I will check in sometime later today or tomorrow. And, don’t panic about the Royals. Their starting pitching has been so great. Their relief pitching has been very good. Their hitting has been the worst in Major League baseball. I suggest a couple of line up changes to stir it up, but Ned Yost is very stubborn. But, his consistency has paid off in the past.

Gary

Weather Forecast Thoughts On Thunderstorm Chances

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now through 9 PM: Dry with a 0% chance of any thunderstorms. High: 84°
  • 9 PM to midnight: Thunderstorms developing west will be monitored closely as they go through various transitions in organization. The chance of a thunderstorm increases to 50% by midnight.
  • Midnight to 6 AM: The cold front moves through with the wind shifting to the northwest. There is a 70% chance of a few thunderstorms. The severe weather risk is low.

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There are two storm systems we are monitoring today. The SPC has placed a slight and an enhanced slight risk out over the plains into the upper midwest today. The second one is due in Friday into the weekend.

Today’s Set-Up:

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There is enough of a cap today, a warm layer aloft around 3,000 to 10,000 feet above us, to prevent thunderstorms from forming along the weaker surface boundaries. Now, remember, there will not be thunderstorms that will just come out of no where. Something must trigger their development. The surface boundaries I have plotted are the areas to monitor closely. The main surface boundaries are way out west in that trough west of Salina at 6 PM, the cold front, and the warm front. That other little surface trough will likely fade into the first one by 8 PM. Thunderstorms will most likely form by 8 PM out of the Kansas City viewing area out west as you can see below.

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Now, the weather always has a few tricks to monitor. So, let’s watch this closely later today. The most likely severe weather risk area is where the SPC put the enhanced slight risk in Iowa. The models have all trended into this solution with the ignition of thunderstorms happening late. By 2 to 4 AM they finally get to Kansas City as you can see below.

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The weekend storm system:

The weekend storm is directly related to a storm that affected the United States Christmas week. In that LRC Cycle 2 version it did move northeast into the northern plains, but it fell apart and another wave took over and dropped southeast. This storm is going through a similar transition as it moves into the plains and it is making the rainfall forecast very difficult for Friday into Saturday. The models continue to be very inconsistent. On this latest GFS model above, I plotted where the storm tracked into the west coast and then turns southeast and, very important here, becomes positively tilted. When a storm tilts from northeast to southwest, that is a positive tilt. When it tilts from northwest to southeast, then it is a negatively tilted storm and most often more energetic. As this storm comes into the west in the next couple of days it will be negatively tilted and a strong reason why California had a very wet year, due to the cycling pattern as described by the LRC. It is forecast to become positively tilted in response of it going through the LRC ridge that is part of this overall pattern we are in across the Northern Hemisphere.

Let’s look deeper into the weekend system tomorrow. Have a great day and thank you for participating in this weather experience.

Gary

Complex Weather Pattern

Good Tuesday,

We are tracking several weather features the next 4-5 days.  The chance of thunderstorms, heavy rain and severe weather depends on the timing and placement of these features.  So, let’s go through this crazy weather.

First, we have had showers and thunderstorms across Nebraska and Iowa as a cold front is moving east up there.  Some of the showers and thunderstorms have made into northern Missouri.

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TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING: The cold front from today will stall in northern Missouri, before heading north as a warm front.  Thunderstorms will be likely later tonight and early Wednesday along and north of this warm front.  This puts the best chance of rain across Iowa and far northern Missouri, north of KC.  These thunderstorms will contain very heavy rain and possibly some larger hail.  If you are headed to the Royals game tonight the weather looks great,  with temperatures in the 60s.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Our region will be windy, warm and humid with highs 80°-85°.  The best severe threat will be along the warm front and northeast of the surface low near Omaha.  We will also be watching a cold front merging with a dry line in central Kansas.  This is where thunderstorms may form tomorrow evening and affect us later tomorrow night.  So, it looks like it will be dry for the Royals game tomorrow night, but that being said anytime after 10 PM there is a chance of thunderstorms.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Our best chance of thunderstorms will be from 10 PM to 3 AM tomorrow night as the cold front moves by.  Some of these thunderstorms may contain quarter sized hail and wind gusts over 50-60 mph.  However, the later these arrive, the less chance they are severe as the heat of the day fades away.  Also, it is still a question on how solid this line will become in the first place.

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THURSDAY: This will be a dry and cooler day with highs in the 60s.  We will see morning clouds, then afternoon sun.  The cold front from Wednesday night is stalling as the next storm approaches from the west.

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FRIDAY:  The new storm system will be approaching as a new “triple point” forms in the southern Plains.  The “triple point” is where the cold front, warm front and dry line meet.  This is where we look for the greatest severe weather threat.  This next storm will track south, keeping eastern Kansas and western Missouri in the cold air, so we will not have to deal with any severe weather.  We would have a cold and windy rain.  Now, the 12Z GFS and the ECMWF have trended so far south with this storm that most of the rain stays south of KC.  This is four days away and there will be many new solutions.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

Where Will Severe Weather Threaten This Week

Good morning bloggers,

We hope you had a great Easter weekend.  The weather is rather calm as we wake up this Monday morning. The risk of stronger thunderstorms may arrive this week, but there are still many questions. Let’s take a look at this weeks set ups. But, first todays weather time-line in Kansas City:

  • Now through 5 PM:  Mostly sunny with no chance of rain today. East to southeast winds, rather light, at 5-10 mph. High: 72°
  • Tonight: A few clouds and no chance of rain. Light southeast winds 5-10 mph. Low:  55°
  • Tuesday: Dry with just a slight chance of evening thunderstorms, most likely north near the Iowa border.  High:  79°

The weather pattern continues to be fascinating and there is chatter out there this week about severe weather risks. Which severe weather risk is the strongest? Let’s take a look.

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As you can see above on the National Weather Service watch and warning map, it is a rather quiet Monday across the nation. The weather will be getting a bit more active across the United States, but which storm is the most impressive?

This week’s risks:

The biggest severe weather risk and potential outbreak of severe weather appears it will be setting up on Saturday over the Tennessee Valley
There are other risks that are showing up, but seemingly not as impressive as Saturdays
Tuesdays risk:

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This map above shows a surface low developing Tuesday evening back near Goodland, KS. A warm front is forecast to strengthen from this low extending east into southern Iowa. The NAM model, shown above, does not fire up thunderstorms until around midnight. Other models fire up the thunderstorms in northern Missouri. Let’s see how today’s models come in.

Wednesdays risk:

By Wednesday, as you can see below, the models have varying solutions and this model run that came in overnight again shows the NAM model with a surface low forecast to be located over southeastern Iowa. If this is at all correct, the severe weather risk would be shifted north and east into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. This, however, is a different set up at the surface than other models have been showing.

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Again, if this NAM model is at all correct Kansas City would not have much of risk at all Wednesday, but I am not convinced of this solution at this moment. The severe weather risk from the SPC has been farther west due to the other models slower solutions.

The most impressive severe weather risk:

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A major spring storm is forecast to move out of the southern Rocky Mountain states and intensify as it approaches Tennessee and the Mississippi River Valley early this weekend. A strong surface low is forecast to intensify over Arkansas by Saturday. This looks more organized and much more impressive than the earlier week set ups. This is also entering our forecast spring hot spot for this year that we issued in early March:

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As you can see, this Saturday storm severe weather set up is falling right into place over the forecast hot spot that Weather2020 issued almost two months ago. Let’s see how the models show up today, but storm chasers should be paying close attention to this one.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Several Chances of Rain and Thunderstorms

Happy Easter,

We had another round of rain and thunderstorms last night with amounts ranging from .25″ north to around 1.25″ south, give or take .20″.  This was along a cold front that is now moving towards I-44.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR 1 AM SUNDAY: You can see the heaviest rain occurred from Downtown KC south and west.

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2017 RAINFALL: We have turned a 2″ deficit to a nearly 2″ surplus in just about five weeks.  We have more rain chances to monitor this week.  So, let’s go through the chances today-Wednesday.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds as a weak high pressure builds in from the north.  The front that came through last night will stall from Oklahoma to southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.  This will be a player in our weather through Wednesday.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: A disturbance will track along and north of the stalled front to our south.  This will create a new cluster of rain and thunderstorms that will track west to east across eastern Kansas and Missouri, mostly from I-70 south.  We do not expect severe weather, but there will be more heavy downpours.  This model has the heaviest along I-70, but it could be further south. We will see how this evolves.  Most locations will see at least some rain, .05″-.25″.  Areas in the heavier downpours could see a new 1″-2″.

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MONDAY MORNING: Any rain and thunderstorms from overnight will be moving away and it looks dry for the rush hour, but roads may be damp to wet with temperatures in the 50s.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: It will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds.  Highs will be around 70° with a light wind, a nice day.  The front is still stalled well to the south.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The front begins a northward trek as a warm front.  It looks dry Tuesday morning, but as the front heads north there is a chance of some showers and thunderstorms.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  The front will head north and eventually stall again into Wednesday.  This front will be the focus of more rain and thunderstorms.  Since the air south of the front will be quite juicy we will have to be on the look out for flash flooding and severe weather.  The front has a chance to be closer to I-70 on Tuesday and then lift north into Nebraska and Iowa on Wednesday.  The better chance of severe weather along the front will be Wednesday as the flow aloft strengthens.

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Have a great week.

Jeff