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Climate Prediction Center Issues La Niña Watch

Good morning bloggers,

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: There is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.

Over the last month, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). ENSO-neutral conditions were apparent in the weekly fluctuation of Niño-3.4 SST index values between -0.1°C and -0.6°C (Fig. 2). While temperature anomalies were variable at the surface, they became increasingly negative in the sub-surface ocean (Fig. 3), due to the shoaling of the thermocline across the east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Though remaining mostly north of the equator, convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific Ocean and slightly enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over a small region of the far western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were anomalously easterly over a small area of the east-central Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter (Fig. 6). However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 (Fig. 7). Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

What does this mean?  I personally do not like it when we see a developing La Niña. Why? For Kansas City it increases our chance of a dry winter. And, it increases our chance of below average snowfall.  I do not like those two things as a weather enthusiast.  I love wet winters, stormy winters, and snowy winters.  We will have much more analysis, but the topic discussed in the paper we are submitting for peer review is the ending of the western drought last winter.  Last winter there was a weak La Niña as well. And, the forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center and so many other sources was for a continuation of the major western drought. What happened? The drought got obliterated despite La Niña conditions. And, many of you know the reason: The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis! The pattern set up in such a way that storm systems got directed through California.  Something bigger is going on, so this gives us some hope for this winter.  According to my hypothesis, a unique pattern will set up.

Now, in my ENSO and snow analysis and I will share much more of this with you when we issue our winter forecast in late November, weak La Niña episodes, moderate La Niña episodes, and strong La Niña episodes have very different snow averages in KC.  KC averages 14.6″ of snow in weak La Niña years, and last year we had close to 5″ of snow total for the entire season.  In moderate La Nina’s however, KC averages around 25″ of snow.  Take a look at one La Niña forecast, the one being weighted heavily in the CPC alert:

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This La Niña developmen, if it comes close to verifying, would fall into a potentially moderate La Niña winter.  As I just said, the snowfall amounts in those years have a much higher average that strong or weak La Niña’s.  As shown in last years weather pattern La Niña is still just an influence. Something much bigger is going on and Weather2020 has been getting better and better at forecasting the weather for locations around the United States in the past decade.  Take a look at this forecast map:

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Now, this is the 384 hour forecast map and it will likely be wrong, but one thing stands out on it and it is something we monitor for in every early fall season: A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  That arrow is pointing to a closed off upper high north of Alaska, and there is a big ridge in the Atlantic that extends up to Greenland. In the past three winters with very low snowfalls in KC there has been very little blocking up at high latitudes. I am not saying it is going to happen, but we often identify day 1 of the pattern as around happening near October 7th. It would almost have to be essential to have major blocking for KC to end up having an exciting winter ahead. It is something to monitor and it is something we have discussed in each winter forecast and it will be a big topic again in a couple of months.

Hurricane Maria:

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Major Hurricane Maria, a CAT 3 storm, is just north of Hispaniola. It is just north of the Dominican Republic and still spinning heavy rain and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico that pretty much got destroyed yesterday.  It is going to be a tough year or two ahead for the people of this U.S. Territory.  The good news on Maria is that it appears that it will curve north into the open waters of the Atlantic.

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The Bahamas are the next target so a harder turn would be nice. Have a great day everyone and thank you for reading and participation in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Let us know if you have any questions and go to www.Weather2020.com and join in the conversation over there.

Gary

Hurricane Maria Bombards Puerto Rico, Then Moves Out Over Water Again

Good morning bloggers,

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The eye of Major Hurricane Maria with 150 mph winds sustained around the eye wall is nearly over San Juan, Puerto Rico as of 7:30 AM this morning.  Puerto Rico is a mountainous island with 3,000 to 4,000 foot peaks and this will help weaken the hurricane just a bit while it traverses and blasts this populated island. A major disaster in Puerto Rico is in progress this morning.  Maria will then move back over the warm water and potentially strengthen back into a CAT 5 hurricane once again as it likely just barely misses the Dominican Republic and Haiti (sometimes called Hispaniola).

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Tropical Storm Jose may eventually interact with Major Hurricane Maria.  The weather pattern is in the process of going through its seasonal massive transition as the new and unique pattern evolves before our eyes during the next two to six weeks. A weather pattern that has never happened before is now evolving and Maria is getting caught in that change.  The track of Maria as we move into the next seven days is still quite uncertain. If you remember Hurricane Irma’s track, there was a point around seven days out that had Irma heading into the northeastern United States, staying off the east coast, or into the Carolinas. I favored the track to near Cuba which was out of most of the forecast cones. It ended up going all the way to Cuba. So, let’s be careful about getting so confident on where Maria will track.  Again, the pattern is changing in these next five days as the Autumnal Equinox arrives Friday at 3:02 PM central time.

Kansas City Weather:

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This weather map above shows one model solution valid at 7 PM this evening (HRRR model).  Can you find the surface features? This is one of those maps that is a bit difficult to draw in all of the features, but I did my best at drawing in the main ones as you can see below:

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The front just northwest of Kansas City will likely be coming to a complete stop this evening. This front will be the boundary that may trigger thunderstorms. On this model, as of 7 PM, it would still have not been strong enough to break through a capping layer aloft, but eventually as the sun sets and we move into the late evening hours thunderstorms will likely form and they may be quite active with lightning. A severe thunderstorm or two will be possible.

This front will then wash out as it shifts north overnight.  Let’s see how this evolves tonight. Where exactly this front stalls will show us where the most likely location of thunderstorms tonight are possible.

Have a great day. Let’s have the citizens of Puerto Rico in our thoughts today.  Let us know if you have any questions and thank you for participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

160 mph Sustained Winds Approach Puerto Rico

Good morning bloggers,

Here is a visible satellite picture showing Jose and Maria early this morning:

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The island of Dominica got obliterated last night by Major Hurricane Maria.  Maria made a direct hit on this island. Martinique was hit as well, but likely not quite as bad as Dominica.   Roosevelt Skerrit, the Prime Minister of Dominica said, “Initial reports are of widespread devastation.  So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace.  The winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn-away roofs in the city and the countryside.”

Major Hurricane Maria This Morning:

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This Category 5 Hurricane has winds gusting to 200 mph and Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are the next target of this deadly storm.  Puerto Rico is an unincorporated territory of the United States located in the northeast Caribbean Sea.  It is part of the island chain that is called the Greater Antilles.  They speak English and Spanish there with Spanish being the main language.  3 to 4 million people live in Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico was originally claimed in 1493 by Christopher Columbus during his second voyage.  In 1898, following the Spanish-American War, The United States acquired Puerto Rico along with other Spanish colonies under the terms of the Treaty of Paris.

What concerns me is that there are 3 to 4 million people in the path of this Category 5 hurricane tonight and Wednesday.  Maria was moving west-northwest at 9 mph this morning and the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will likely take a direct hit in the next two days.

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The Cycling Weather Pattern & These Hurricanes

Major Hurricane Harvey was directly related to Tropical Storm Cindy in the previous cycle of the pattern as described by The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Weather2020, LLC made a prediction for a Major Hurricane to be developing within five days of the Total Eclipse of the Sun date on August 25th and Harvey developed just as forecast, location and strength. Harvey actually passed Cindy’s path three times and both of the systems made landfall within a few miles of each other in Louisiana. Yes, it was Harvey’s second U.S. landfall, but incredible as Louisiana had gone five years without a land falling tropical storm, then suddenly two in the same season.

Hurricane Irma can be traced back through the cycles as well and Weather2020, LLC forecast the more likely south track with a potential of making it  into the Gulf of Mexico and reaching Cuba, which happened.

And, now Maria. Maria can be shown to be related to when this weather pattern first showed up in early October. Remember, we identify day 1 of this years cycling pattern as around October 7th, and this is the day Major Hurricane Matthew was approaching the Carolina coast line.  Yes, it can be shown that Matthew and Maria are likely related. It will be the subject of a follow up paper to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis paper being submitted for publication this year.  It is just so incredible and I can’t wait to share this with our peers and the scientific community.

Now, Maria will be turning north just after the sun sets at the North Pole. Yes, the sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox, and then it is twilight for two weeks. Then, it finally goes dark at the North Pole right around October 5th to October 8th, or about the time we identify the beginning of the new and unique pattern according to the CPH.  Fascinating coincidence, or maybe not.

So, Maria is caught in a massive change taking place, and this may very well benefit the east coast, hopefully, as Maria is being forecast to track way off the east coast. I am not convinced of this yet, however, so let’s keep monitoring this closely.

Kansas City Weather:

1.17″ of rain fell at KCI early this morning.  Wow!  A warm front passed through early this morning. It actually acted like a real warm front. We had fog and low clouds very early this morning, thunderstorm formed near and ahead of the front and then tracked north and east. We are now into the tropical and very warm, humid air for the balance of the week through next weekend.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Go to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation if you want. Let us know if you have any questions. Tonight around 9 PM I will be doing a Facebook Live on www.Facebook.com/GaryLezak. Join in that conversation as well. There has been a lot of talk about Climate Change and these hurricanes. We will open that discussion again as well.

Gary

Tracking Jose, Maria, and a Gradual Change In The Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City did it again. We just experienced a completely dry first half of a month, and the second half of the month is now much wetter.  An area of thunderstorms and rain is moving across eastern Kansas into western Missouri this morning.  This is being caused by a series of weak waves aloft moving northeast from Texas, Oklahoma, and western Kansas. This will move through during the day.

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This was at 7:37 AM central time. These showers and thunderstorms were increasing and moving northeast.  There are huge changes going on in the overall weather pattern during the next two to three weeks. According to our Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH) a unique pattern will set up by around the first week of October. So, the big evolution in the pattern likely has started, but we still are in the old pattern that is on its last legs.  Hurricanes Jose and Maria are both caught now in this transition, which is likely a good thing.  Maria may very well target the eastern United States, but due to the massively changing pattern, this strengthening hurricane may very well stay out over the Atlantic. Unfortunately, Maria will be blasting some of the islands once again before it gets caught in the changing pattern.

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We can see some of the changes that seem to be happening just as the sun is setting at the North Pole.  The sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox, then it turns dark up there around two weeks later. There are two weeks of twilight and this is about the same time the weather pattern goes through its massive change.

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At the surface there will be a rather strong front developing by Saturday night. You can see this front on my analysis of the surface map valid at 7 PM Saturday.  South winds will be overspreading the plains this week, and it looks dry for most of the Plaza Art Fair this weekend.  It will be fascinating to track Jose and Maria as well, and you can see them off the east coast trying to rotate around each other. Jose will have weakened considerably by Saturday.

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Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • This morning: Rain likely with a 100% chance of rain with a few thunderstorms moving in.  It will mostly cloudy with a light wind.
  • This afternoon: The rain and thunderstorm activity will move off to the northeast. South winds will increase a bit at 8-15 mph. A warm front will be in the area drifting north. High:  75°

Rainfall amounts will be between 0.25″ and 1.25″ today.  Have a great start to the week and thank you for sharing in the Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the CPH.  Let us know if you have any questions. We continue to have some great discussions over on the Weather2020 blog.

Gary

Dry Spell to Deluge

Good Sunday,

We had a strong cold front move through Saturday night and it made it’s presence known as we had a night of very heavy thunderstorms in Kansas City.  The good news is that the rest of the day will be mostly dry with highs around 70°.

Here are the radar estimated rainfall totals from last night, so your rain gauge may read differently.  Do the heaviest areas of rain look familiar?  It should, as these are basically the same locations that had 3-4 flooding events during the summer.  This is not a coincidence as we are in the same pattern that set up last fall.  Yes, the CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis), is noticeable in this rainfall total layout.  The only reasons we did not have flooding is that we just came off a 20 day dry spell and amounts were 3″ to 5″, not 6″ to 10″.  A new pattern will set up during October and November and we are anxiously awaiting what unique pattern is about to evolve.

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Here is a close in version of the rainfall totals.  Look at these amounts!  There was over 5″ south of Bonner Springs with 3″ to 5″ from Lawrence to Overland Park south to Paola and Harrisonville.

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What is next?  The cold front that came through last night will stall and return north as a warm front later tonight and Monday.  So, more thunderstorms are likely at those times. This is not a weak cold front as lows have been in the 30s and 40s from Nebraska to the Dakotas and Rockies.  Temperatures early Sunday ranged from 76° in Tulsa, OK to 34° in Rapid City, SD.

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SUNDAY NOON: The rain will be south of KC and it will be dry for kickoff with temperatures in the 60s.  Some sun will try to peek through the clouds.

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SUNDAY 4 PM: It will be a dry afternoon with a few peeks of sun. An isolated lingering shower or sprinkle is possible, but the chance is less than 20%.  Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  If there is more sun, it will be in the mid 70s.

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MONDAY 4 AM:  Here we go again.  A new round of thunderstorms will be on the way or it may be a few hours sooner.

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MONDAY 8 AM: It looks like a wet Monday morning rush hour with rain and thunderstorms likely, heavy at times.  We will have to watch for flash flooding, especially in the locations that received 3″ to 5″ of rain Saturday night.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The rain should be mostly over as highs climb to around 80° with rather high humidity.  If the warm front lingers Monday night, then more thunderstorms will be possible at that time into early Tuesday.

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Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm and humid ahead of a new cold front that arrives Wednesday night.  This front will stall and we could have more heavy thunderstorms.  There will be more chances into next weekend, hopefully not interfering with the Plaza Art Fair.

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TROPICAL UPDATE:

We can’t forget about the tropics as there are three active systems in the Atlantic, Jose, Maria and Lee.

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Here are the latest track forecasts for the three systems.  Lee will likely be harmless as he stays weak and out to sea.  Jose will come rather close to New England and may bring New York and Boston some nasty weather Tuesday and Wednesday.  Maria is another story and let’s take a closer look at her.

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Oh no!  Maris is likely to become a major hurricane this week and affect the same islands that got devastated by Irma.  Maria may have an impact on the east coast of the USA in about 6-10 days.

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Have a great week and GO CHIEFS!

Jeff Penner

Increasing Thunderstorm Chances

Good Saturday,

We have not seen measurable rain since August 27th, a 20 day dry spell, including today.  Yes, the Indians winning streak ended before our dry spell, and the Royals are mathematically in it, so there is a chance.  The Chiefs have a big game on Sunday and will it rain for the game?  We will time out the weekend weather below and start with a tropical update.

TROPICAL UPDATE: The tropics are active as we have hurricane Jose sitting in the western Atlantic.  Jose may affect New England next week.  Tropical depression #14 looks as if it will stay in the Atlantic, form into a tropical storm, then fall apart.  The disturbance west of TD #14 is likely to intensify and affect the Carolinas in about 10 days.

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Hurricane Norma is located south of Baja, CA and she may bring some added moisture by the end of next week to our region.  Or, she may come out in whole or half as a disturbance, enhancing rain, from west Texas to the Great Lakes at the end of next week.

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JOSE FORECAST TRACK: It looks like he will come quite close to New England by Tuesday-Wednesday as a tropical storm or Cat 1.  It does not look like he will become a major hurricane again, but he could cause some rough weather from New York to Boston.

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WEEKEND WEATHER:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: A strong cold front will be pushing southeast across the Plains with highs in the 80s to lows 90s ahead of the front and 60s and 70s behind the front.  Highs will be in the 40s and 50s across the northern Plains.  This front will interact with the heat and humidity in our area and generate showers and thunderstorms, some with very heavy downpours.

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SATURDAY 7 PM: The first thunderstorms will form from northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri with the KC area likely dry.

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SATURDAY NIGHT (MIDNIGHT): The thunderstorms will increase to our northwest, so this model suggests a dry evening in KC.  The thunderstorms may sag in faster, so if you are out and about tonight after 9-10 PM, like the Sporting KC game, you may want to bring the rain gear.

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SUNDAY MORNING (8 AM-NOON): The front will be in the area, so showers and thunderstorms are likely.  Yes, this could affect Chiefs tailgating.  Some of the rain may be heavy at times.

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SUNDAY NOON: The rain may still be around for kickoff, but in a weakening phase.  Temperatures will be in the 60s as we are in the cooler air.

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SUNDAY (NOON-4 PM): Rain showers may linger or hopefully end during the game.  Highs will be in the 70s as we stay in the cooler air.  The front will return as a warm front Sunday night and Monday, so new thunderstorms are likely once again with some heavy downpours possible.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS: This is the time of year to put down grass seed and fertilizer and it would be nice to have free water and there are no sprinklers that do a better job than Mother Nature.  Well, this is the day and week to do those yard tasks as we have many chances of rain the next 7 days. The first chance is tonight and Sunday.

Most areas will receive 1″ to 2″ of rain with some locations seeing 3″ to 5″ of rain.  This data has the heaviest rain from northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri, but the bulls eye may end up anywhere.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

We Are Still In The Same Pattern For Two More Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

As summer comes to an end we see that the drought monitor showing the exceptional drought over Montana extending east over the northern plains. Kansas City is seemingly getting surrounded as the dry weather has us surrounded, and the Pacific northwest has gotten a bit dry as well:

Today is the 19th day in a row with no rain in Kansas City. We are completing another dry first half of a month.

Then July came in with 0.38″ in the first half and 4.59″ in the second half, with almost 8 inches of rain in the second half of August.  And, here we are with 0.00″ in the first half of September.

And, no shock, here is the force for the second half of September from the overnight GFS model:

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The Tropics Remain Active:

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Tropical Depression #14 is going to become Tropical Storm Lee today.  I can just see some very bad jokes about this one if it actually does target South Carolina. And, I am heading to South Carolina to go to Hilton Head. If Fourteen becomes Lee, conditions are favorable for it to struggle to strengthen a lot until it approaches one of this years tropical storm hot spots near the Lesser Antilles.  The pattern supports a strong hurricane in around a week.

But way before Tropical Storm Lee needs to be monitored closely, we are still monitoring Jose and Norma:

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Norma is forecast to become a hurricane in the next 24 hours or so, and notice how it takes a track blasting Cabo again and then Norma makes a turn towards Mexico.

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This forecast map above shows Jose threatening the northeast coast next week and Norma moving into the mainland of Mexico.  What a tropical season we are having. We will go into more detail on 41 Action News tonight and in the blog over the weekend.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

All of a Sudden…We Need Rain

Good Wednesday bloggers,

January to March were quite dry, despite being more active in March (March was 0.44″ above average).  Then, April through August were quite wet, but it was regionally misleading as drought conditions formed all around eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Here is the latest drought monitor and you can see southern Iowa south to St. Louis and central Kansas are in need of rain.

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The worst of the drought is in the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

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This is why eastern Kansas and western Missouri are not in drought conditions.  Look at how much rain has occurred between April 1 and August 27 in Kansas City.  This includes the wettest KC August in recorded history. KC was over 11″ above average for these months!

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We are now in a 17 day dry spell as the faucet shut off on August 28th.  We are fully into grass seed and fertilizing season and it would be nice to receive free water.  Well, there are chances showing up.

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The next chance of rain arrives later Saturday or Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west.  A warm and humid air mass will be in place.  So, keep an eye to the sky if you are headed to the Sporting KC game.  Hopefully, it will be an after midnight thunderstorm event for Kansas City.

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The front will stall Sunday then lift back north as a warm front.  Yes, the Chiefs home opener is Sunday.  Will rain affect tailgating and the game? It looks like during Sunday morning the rain will be in a decreasing phase.  So, we want the thunderstorms to be timed from 1 AM to 8 AM Sunday so that Sporting KC and the Chiefs have dry weather. This is certainly possible, but not set in stone and we will have to update this as we get closer.  The front will likely be north of I-70 Sunday evening and heading north, so after the rain ends Sunday morning, it should be dry the rest of the day.

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Have a great day.

Jeff Penner

Less Than 25 Days From The New Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Welcome to the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  According to the CPH a unique weather pattern will be setting up and the pattern we have experienced for the past year will get wiped out.  This pattern we just experienced, and it isn’t quite done yet, has produced some rather fascinating weather across the Northern Hemisphere from the two recent hurricane disasters to the obliteration of the western drought with record snowfall over the Sierra Nevada.  Within 25 days something brand new will have started.

Speaking of the Sierra Nevada. Look at this rare waterspout over Lake Tahoe, on the lake, and a Tornado Warning was issued for the north shore as this rotated around a strong thunderstorm:

I still dream of living there some day. This past year has been just fascinating. The drought got obliterated and now this.

Hurricane Irma just destroyed many of those early island hits such as St. Martin and others in that area just east of Puerto Rico.  Irma could have been much worse in the United States, but fortunately it went inland near Marco Island. The fact it traversed the entire Florida Peninsula created many more power outages due to the amount of populations it tracked across.  There was a reverse storm surge in many areas, and then there was a “normal” storm surge on the east coast of Florida all the way up into the Georgia and South Carolina coast. Take a look at what washed ashore near Hilton Head:

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Many residents left Hilton Head Island way in advance of Irma. There were a few model runs that had South Carolina getting a direct hit, so residence did leave early in many incidents. But, there was one visitor that showed up because of the storm.  This visitor, that lives out over the ocean,  was red, weighed 13,000 pounds, and will likely not be moved out for a long time. 13,000 pounds! Wow, and you can see a couple of dogs wondering what that big thing was, and did you ever realize how big these Buoys  are, 13,000 pounds, as I say it for the third time?  I am heading to Hilton Head for the first time in two weeks. I bet it will still be there.

DSCN4475Sunny The Weather Dog found the sprinklers this morning. After a summer where most of the Kansas City residents did not even need to water their lawns in July and August, suddenly it became necessary during this current dry spell. Kansas City is now up to 18 days in a row without any measurable rain.  This dry streak may get a break this weekend as a cold front moves through. There is another tropical system to monitor closely, well really two systems. Jose continues to spin over the Atlantic Ocean and it is making a move towards the east coast, but will likely curve offshore. It still needs to be monitored closely. And, another system is forming near Baja California.  This system will likely spread some moisture into the southwestern states and possibly out into the plains. The GFS model has been the most aggressive with this moisture by Tuesday and it even tracks it over KC early next week.  This can be seen on the overnight GFS, in fact you can see both tropical systems:

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In tomorrows blog we discuss the second season of severe weather season. There is, what has been called, the “second season” as the “first season” is spring severe weather season. In KC I think we would all agree that summer was almost more active that spring, but it certainly did calm down in the past three weeks.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Let us know if you have any questions. We have been having some great conversations over on the Weather2020 blog.

Gary

Clouds From Irma Make It All The Way To Kansas

Good morning bloggers,

A swirling band of showers and thunderstorms moved off the west coast of Africa on August 26th and then Tropical Storm Irma formed a few days later near the Cape Verde Islands. Irma strengthened into a CAT 5 hurricane as it blasted some of the islands like St. Martin with a direct hit before tracking just north of Puerto Rico. A few days later Irma drifted into the north coast of Cuba where it weakened as the eye went over some land areas. The storm then turned north and wobbled into the Florida Keys and then tracked across the sunshine state.  The clouds have now made their way into Kansas this morning. Here is Sunny The Weather Dog showing off the clouds:

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Weak Hurricane Jose can be seen as well as the cloud cover from the remnants of Irma backing into Oklahoma and Kansas this morning.  Jose is forecast to do a big loop and then likely stay off the east coast of the United States. We still have to monitor Jose closely.  We just passed the peak of hurricane season. I looked into the pattern and just as the new Cycling Pattern sets up according to my hypothesis there will be another chance of a major hurricane developing later in September or early in October. Between now and then the tropics should quiet down just a bit.

Where is the rain? In KC today is our 16th day in a row without any measurable rain, barely even a drop in most areas. This dry trend will continue for a few more days.  September is not supposed to be this dry?  We will look deeper into the pattern in tomorrows blog.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary