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Holiday Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Holiday Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: An absolutely gorgeous day. High: 76° with a south breeze around 15 mph
  • Tonight: A 10% chance of a thunderstorm around 4 AM. So, this likely means it will be dry in most locations. Low: 63°
  • Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Southeast winds switching to the northeast at around 10 mph.  High:  83°
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of thunderstorms. One model has a severe weather risk and the other ones do not have as much of a risk. We are monitoring closely as described below. A slight change and we could have a significant risk, but a slight change the other way and it is just a fast moving band of thunderstorms that lasts an hour or less. High: 78° The timing of the rain chance is toughest on this day and we should know more by Friday.
  • Sunday-Memorial Day: Really nice weather with just a 10% chance of a brief shower Monday afternoon or evening. The rest of these days look great. Highs:  74 to 80 degrees

Weather Discussion:

A very interesting set up is developing for Saturday. There is a lot to analyze between now and then. The Storm Prediction Center has this risk out for day 3:

There will likely be a morning MCS, a morning complex of thunderstorms Saturday. This will most likely form over northwest and western Kansas and ride east north of a developing front.

From the SPC:  “Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Saturday night from portions of the central and southern Plains east to the mid-Atlantic coast.  

A positively tilted upper-level trough will extend from a closed low over Manitoba across the northern Plains and into the Great Basin, with moderately strong zonal flow and an expansive EML from the central Rockies east to the mid-Atlantic coast.  By late Saturday afternoon, a surface frontal boundary will extend from the souther high plains east across Oklahoma to a surface low over the western Ohio Valley, with a warm front extending east to the mid-atlantic coast. A drilling will extend from central Oklahoma into southwest Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place along and south of the front and east of the drilling, contributing to strong to extreme instability.

For the Central/Southern Plains:  An MCE with some severe potential may be ongoing at 12z Saturday in the Kansas/Nebraska border region, and diurnal intensification of this complex is possible with a severe threat extending east across the lower Missouri Valley.

Additional potentially explosive thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the southward sagging cold front from central/eastern Oklahoma northeast into the western Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon, and along the drilling from central Oklahoma southward into north Texas. 

GFS and ECMWF forecast soundings reveal an environment characterized by strong to extreme surface-based instability and 40-50 its of deep layer shear and storms should rapidly become severe with all severe hazards possible, including significant severe hail and wind.  Tornado potential will exist, and likely be influenced by boundary/storm interactions.”

We are still in the peak of tornado season. Look at today’s tornado climatology:

As you can see above, we are really now at the peak of tornado season. It will fade away within four weeks, but right now the jet stream energy is not just strong enough to produce the conditions for severe weather set ups, but historically this week has been really bad. The Joplin EF-5 occurred in this seven day stretch. The Moore, OK and El Reno, OK tornadoes in 2013 occurred during the second half of May.

The latest data is in with rather differing results. I am adding in the time-line with my thoughts near the top of the blog.

Have a great day. I have the day off from 41 Action News. I will check in from time to time if you have any questions.

Gary

A Look Into The Holiday Weekend Forecast

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  A brief shower or two is likely in a few spots, but most areas will stay dry. The showers are near the state line this morning. High:  65°
  • Thursday: A gorgeous day with no chance of rain. High:  75°
  • Friday:  A slight chance of morning thunderstorms. There is a chance something moves through before sunrise, but most of the day looks dry and warm. The wind increases from the south at 20 mph.  High:  80°
  • Saturday:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chance of rain is 60%.  The best risk of severe weather appears it will stay south, but this could change a bit. High: 75°
  • Sunday:  A nice day with no rain expected. High:  77°
  • Monday (Memorial Day):  Warm and sunny with a southwest breeze around 17 mph.  High:  80°

Weather Discussion:

Summer begins June 21st, so this exactly four weeks from today.  The jet stream is weakening gradually and by that first day of summer the jet stream shifts north and tornado season usually ends or at least shifts up to near the USA/Canada border.  But, this has not happened yet and four weeks is still a long time from now. Between now and the middle of June this cycling pattern as described by the LRC has some more rather interesting set-ups that will produce severe weather risks, flooding rains, and cold fronts before summer tries to settle in.

This morning there is a Tornado Watch in Florida and a late May Frost Advisory over the northern Plains:

A cool weather pattern is in progress. Yesterday was another day of below average temperatures. The high at KCI Airport was 11 degrees below average:

Today will be Kansas City’s sixth day in a row with below average temperature, but overall the month is right now almost exactly average with -0.2° below as of yesterday.

A band of convective rain showers moved across and tracked around a developing storm system yesterday. The rainfall total was only 0.09″ but it adds to the total this year which is over 3″ above average. We forecasted a dry first half of May and a stormier second half of May. The first 17 days had below an inch of rain for the month, but that has once again changed big time as you can see below in the annual total as of yesterday. You can add in 0.09″ from yesterday to this total.

Will this wetter trend that began in late March continue into June? I am not going to say no way, that’s for sure. Weather2020 has been making some excellent accurate forecasts since this pattern began, but the forecast for the drier spring was rather obviously wrong.  I can see why it did get wet, and it could have been weighted much heavier. So, we learn and get better.

Today, this system is spinning into Missouri and it will become a much bigger storm east of KC. The set ups for this weekend are becoming more interesting as well. There is a lot to analyze for the Memorial Day Weekend Forecast and we will delve deeper into it on Thursday.

Severe Weather Risk today:

Severe Weather Risk Friday:

Severe Weather Risk Saturday:

The European Model has the front setting up farther south on Saturday. Let’s see how the models set up and we will go in-depth tomorrow.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Quickly Changing Weather

Good Tuesday,

We are tracking a developing storm system for today and Wednesday and another for the Memorial day weekend.  These systems will lead to quickly changing weather not just day to day, but hour to hour.  So, let’s go through this crazy forecast.

TUESDAY MORNING: The main system is located in southwestern Minnesota.  There have been countless disturbances rotating around it as it drops south.  This is why we have had the periods of showers since Monday.  This main low will drop south into Missouri on Wednesday before heading east.  So, it will continue to impact our weather with periods of showers.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The sun has come out and it will warm us into the 60s.  This will lead to building cumulus clouds and this afternoon after 3 PM, some will build to cumulonimbus clouds.  These will will be small showers and a few thunderstorms.  This means it is one of those days where the sun is out, then you could get a 5-10 minute downpour followed by more sun followed by a new brief downpour or light shower at anytime later.  This will go on from about 3 PM to 8 PM.  There may be some small hail in the very heaviest as the air aloft is quite cold.

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TUESDAY NIGHT: The showers will be gone by 10 PM and so will most of the clouds as the heat of the day is lost and the showers dissipate.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING: The main system will be dropping into Missouri and this will force a deck of low clouds back in.  There will also be a few showers and possibly some drizzle.

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WEDNESDAY: As the system moves through Missouri there will be scattered showers from the state line east.  Total rainfall the next two days will be a trace to .30″.  Temperatures will be quite cool in the 50s.  The sun may try to pop out before it sets taking us to the low 60s.

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THURSDAY: This will be a nice day with highs in the 70s after lows in the 50s.  Our next potential chance of thunderstorms will be evolving by evening.  A disturbance will be tracking out of the Rockies creating a new, rather strong surface low in southwest Kansas.  A warm front will be forming to its east.  An area of thunderstorms will likely form in eastern Colorado into western Kansas.  Thursday night into Friday morning this will move quickly east and we could see thunderstorms Friday morning.  Right now they do not look like much, but we have to watch them closely as this is getting to the time of year when you can have strong morning thunderstorms followed by a nice day.  The limiting factor for these thunderstorms to be strong for our area is low level moisture.  Dew points may only be in the 50s  by Friday morning.  It is something to watch closely.

 

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MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Thursday will see the system from the last two days moving quickly to the east as a new trough sets up in the Rockies.  One of the disturbances coming out of the Rockies trough will affect us Friday morning as stated above.  This trough will be moving east through the weekend.

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SATURDAY: The trough is moving right along and on Saturday as it moves into the Plains we will have the best chance of thunderstorms either in the morning, or afternoon or both.  This will be the day with the best chance of severe weather, but it will depend where the fronts are located and timing of disturbances.  The details are far from being worked out.  It looks like this system will be gone by Sunday.  There is a chance it could linger a day, but the trend is faster.

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MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SUMMARY:  So, we should see 1-3 periods of thunderstorms, especially Friday and Saturday.  This means those days will not be washouts and Sunday-Monday could end up being pretty decent.

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Have a greet week and holiday weekend.

Jeff

Nothing Like Six Years Ago Today

Good morning bloggers,

Six years ago today was one of the worst tornado days in our weather history.  Joplin Missouri was blasted by an EF-5 tornado that killed 158 people and produced a $2.8 billion disaster.  The wind speeds in that tornado likely were well over 300 mph and the tornado was 1 mile wide. This was part of a five to six day stretch where conditions were quite favorable for severe weather and tornadoes.  Two days later Sedalia, MO had a significant tornado and one of the most impressive wall clouds I have ever seen occurred right over my house in south Overland Park on May 24th.  This happened in the late morning.  The lowering was just around 1,000 feet above the surface with this incredible spinning wall close. Fortunately this years pattern has been fairly quiet in tornado alley. There are around four weeks left of tornado season.

Here are today’s severe weather risks:

There is a disturbance moving across Kansas this morning with a band of rain showers and a few embedded weak thunderstorms:

The strongest disturbance was over southeastern Texas with very heavy rain slowly moving across that area.  There is a wave of energy over the Dakota’s with little waves rotating around that system. This is what is creating this mornings band of rain approaching KC.

I am currently monitoring the Memorial Day weekend closely for a potential severe weather risk Friday into Saturday.  Let’s see how this lines up in the next few days. It looks dry on Memorial Day in many areas.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Scattered showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. The chance of rain is 90%. High:  66°
  • Tonight: A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Low: 54°
  • Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High: 65°
  • Outlook for Memorial Day weekend:  A good chance of thunderstorms Friday into Saturday, most likely during the morning. Saturday evening may have a risk of severe weather. It looks dry Sunday into Memorial day right now. Highs in the 74 to 80 degree range.

Have a great start to the week.

Gary

Looking Into Memorial Day Weekend

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line (Looking into Memorial Day weekend):

  • Today:  A gorgeous day as we are in the circulation around the big storm moving into Canada.  In winter this would have been a colder breezy day. The May version brings us gorgeous weather after a cool start. This evening will be gorgeous. High: 70°
  • Monday:  A chance of thunderstorms. High:  72°
  • Tuesday: A chance of rain showers or a thunderstorm. High: 65°
  • Wednesday-Thursday: Dry and nice. Warming into the 70s Thursday
  • Memorial Day Weekend:  A few thunderstorms are possible. Most of the weekend will be dry, but one or two bands of heavy thunderstorms will be likely at some point over the weekend. We will time it out for you later. It will warm up to near 80° as the pools open up.

The weather pattern is rather interesting and fascinating as always.  Take a look at what is developing today and tonight with this forecast surface map valid early Monday morning:

The big storm system that formed over the past few days is now spinning out over southern Canada. That is an occluded front up north:

Occluded Front:  A complex frontal system that ideally forms when a cold front overtakes a warm front. When the air behind the front is colder than the air ahead of it, the front is called a cold occlusion. When the air behind the front smiler than the air ahead of it, it is called a warm occlusion.

Here is a picture from Meteorology Today, the text book used by meteorology students around the world:

Now, look back at the surface map. Around the big storm is another system dropping out of Canada. This is more like an Alberta Clipper that we see during the winter months. A cold front will develop between now and Monday afternoon over the northern plains and then swing across the central plains into the Great Lakes. Since it is now May, this front will likely have enough moisture to work with to produce thunderstorms. And, look at the warm front developing today ahead of it. That front may help produce thunderstorms later tonight into early Monday morning.

How does this fit the LRC? We showcased many examples yesterday, and look at how the storm compares to the LRC cycle two version in January:

These past few weeks have been a great way to show the cycling pattern from day to day and week to week. Everything is right on schedule. What does this mean for the Memorial Day Weekend ahead of us?

The previous three LRC cycles had weaker storm systems that moved across the Rocky Mountains and plains states in this next part of the cycling pattern, due in around Memorial Day weekend. So, there will be a good chance of thunderstorms and maybe some slight risks of severe weather given the time of the year.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Current Storm Exits, One More to Track

Good Saturday,

This was one heck of a storm system, but our region lucked out as we dodged any serious severe weather.  If Friday was in the 70s instead of the 60s,  we would have had some significant weather issues.  The storm on Saturday morning was moving into Nebraska where there has been some wet snow!

The storm will track into the western Great Lakes by Sunday morning leaving us with some great weather.

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SATURDAY 8 AM: We were in a wedge of 60s as a cold front was approaching.  There is drizzle associated with this front.  So, after the front moves by temperatures will drop to the 50s, before rebounding back to the 60s this afternoon.

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This storm has produced widespread heavy rain and here are some estimated totals.  Your rain gauge may read differently as these are just estimates by the radar.  The heaviest rain occurred from southeast Oklahoma to southwest Missouri where amounts ranged from 4″ to 7″.

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The heaviest in our region fell north of Topeka where some locations saw over 6″ of rain.  1″ to 4″ of rain was widespread across the area.

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The heaviest rain in the KC metro area was in Platte county where amounts were around 4″.  KCI received about 3.75″ with around 3″ falling in 1-2 hours Thursday night!  The rest of the city received between 1″ and 2.50″.  The least amounts were found in eastern Jackson county.

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What is next?  We have a nice weekend day followed by the next storm system, so let’s go through this.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be over and we will have a west-southwest wind 10-20 mph.  There will be peeks of sun with temperatures mostly in the 60s.  The 50s will hang tough to the north where the clouds remain thick.  It will be a nice Saturday evening as temperatures drift back to the 50s.

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SUNDAY MORNING: It will be a clear and cool start to May 21st with lows in the low 40s.  The record low is 38° set in 1892.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This is going to be a near perfect day with abundant sunshine, a light wind and highs around 70°.

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MONDAY MORNING: The next storm system will be moving in with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms by the morning rush hour.  We do not expect severe weather or flooding with this storm system as it is much weaker than the one we just dealt with the past few days.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: The first batch of rain will be moving away as a cold front approaches.  There will be new showers and thunderstorms along this front Monday evening, leading to a dry and decent Tuesday.  Total rainfall from this system will be a trace to .50″ with a few locations seeing around 1″.

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It looks dry Tuesday through Friday, but rain is possible for Memorial day weekend.  It is on average the wettest weekend of the year, so it is hard to keep it dry.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff

Excessive Rainfall Possible

Good evening bloggers,

This is Jeff Penner with an update:

We have been tracking two storm systems this week the first one is now in eastern Canada.  This was the system from Wednesday, now we are dealing with the second storm system and this is much bigger.  So, let’s get into the forecast as it is a complex set up tonight through Friday night.

Here are the locations of the two storm systems as of of Friday evening.  There is quite a snowstorm ongoing in Colorado as a very large area of rain and thunderstorms is occurring from Kansas to Texas.  The tornado activity has been less that expected, so far, as there have been so many thunderstorms, making for less supercells.

THURSDAY 6 PM: Temperatures ranged from 90° in Dallas to 32° in Casper, WY.  What a storm!  The warm front extends from the main surface low in the western Oklahoma panhandle to central Illinois.  The placement of this warm front will be the key to where the highest tornado threat is located on Friday.

FRIDAY MORNING: The big thunderstorms now in western and central Kansas will roll through our area between 11 PM and 8 AM.  These will contain very heavy rain and possibly some damaging winds.  These thunderstorms will mess up the surface wind pattern and it looks like the real warm front will get pushed south.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: This data below suggests the real warm front will stay to the south.  This means we have potential for very heavy rain and flash flooding along with large hail and damaging winds with little to no tornado threat.  Now, let’s be very careful here.  The warm front position is not set in stone and it could easily lift to around I-70 tomorrow evening.  If this happens the tornado threat increases tremendously along with the flash flooding threat.  We will have to see how this evolves Friday morning.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: The main storm and cold front will move by and this will end the rain chances early Saturday leading to a decent weekend, regardless of where the warm front sets up Friday afternoon.

RAINFALL FORECAST:  This is from the 18z GFS and is quite incredible with total rainfall in the area of 3″ to almost 7″.  Is this right?  Well, again we have to see how things set up.  You can get 2-3″ of rain in one hour with this situation.  It is going to depend where the warm front sets up and the track of the thunderstorms.  Needless to say, most locations should see 1″ to 3″ of rain, but we will have to be on the look out for locations where it gets excessive and that is why there is a Flash Flood watch  in effect through Saturday morning.  Remember “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

Have a great night.

Jeff Penner

Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Out West: KC Must Monitor This Closely Tonight

Good morning bloggers,

A Severe Weather Outbreak Is Likely

From The Storm Prediction Center:  “An Outbreak Of Severe Thunderstorms with tornadoes, very large hail, and wind damage is expected to develop across parts of the southern and central plains from this afternoon into this evening and overnight. Strong long-track tornadoes will be likely from parts of central and southern Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible outside of these areas across parts of the southern and central plains.  A severe threat is also expected across parts of the lower Great Lakes region late this afternoon and early evening.”

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now-8 PM:  Staying dry with light winds this morning increasing from the east and southeast this afternoon at 10-15 mph.  High: 78°
  • 8 PM – Midnight:  Thunderstorms begin forming near a warm front which will be near KC. Thunderstorms will be increasing overnight with severe weather possible. The main risk type is damaging winds and large hail, but we can’t rule out night time tornadoes at this time.
  • Midnight- 6 AM:  A round of strong to severe thunderstorms is likely.  Very heavy rain will fall from the thunderstorms that may produce damaging winds and hail.
  • Friday:  The rain may shut down for a little while in the morning. There is still a chance of more thunderstorms, however.  There is a better chance of strong to severe thunderstorms firing back up later in the day into Friday night.

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This map above shows the surface map as of 7 AM this morning.  The storm is just beginning to organize and a lot has to happen before the severe thunderstorms erupt. There is still an old circulation around yesterdays storm. Moisture was pulled off to the east, but it is already beginning a surge back to the west this morning.  Conditions will be coming together for the outbreak later today. Right now we will be monitoring these developments closely.

Tornado Climatology:

KS daily Tor freq

Today is May 18th and we are near the peak of tornado season. This shows the Daily Kansas tornado frequency 1950-2009.  As the graph indicates, mid to late April through mid June historically has the highest tornado frequency, with the peak occurring around May 22nd-23rd with over 160 tornadoes occurring over that two day period since 1950. Notice the sharp drop-off by mid to late June. This is due to the jet stream (storm track) and associated strong vertical wind shear shifting north, affecting mainly the northern tier of the country through the rest of the summer. This effectively shuts down the Kansas “tornado machine”, as the hot, “dog-days” of summer set in. Notice the secondary minor peak in tornado activity October-November, when the onset of winter battles with the relatively mild fall airmass still in place across the region.

KS hourly tor freq

This next graphic shows the most likely time of the day for tornadoes. It is rare, but not unheard of, to have night time and early morning tornadoes. The least likely time for a tornado in Kansas is around 8 AM.

Potential Flooding From This Storm:

The models are continuing to come in with high precipitation amounts that would lead to some flooding.  The latest NAM and GFS model runs have 2 to 5 inch amounts near Kansas City. Flooding will be one of the more serious risks. How will Friday set up? This is something we will look deeper into later. Right now, let’s see how today pans out.

We will be monitoring this closely on 41 Action News today and tonight. Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily is heading out with Storm Tracker and we will track this risk as it approaches Kansas City tonight.  Have a great day and we will keep you updated.

Gary

Mostly Dry From This Storm

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A Wind Advisory with winds gusting from the southwest up to nearly 50 mph at times this afternoon. There is a slight 20% chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm and we have to still watch them closely.  High:  78°
  • Tonight: Dry and windy with southwest to west winds 15-30 mph
  • Thursday: Dry with periods of clouds. The chance of rain is 0%.  The chance of rain increases after sunset. Severe weather is most likely well west of Kansas City, but again we have to see how it sets up.  High:  77°
  • Thursday night – Friday:  Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely.  1 to 2 inches of rain are possible and some severe weather is likely in the area. Will it be too cool, or will the warm air surge in here for an increased severe weather risk. This is what we are monitoring closely for on the new data. High: 72°

This water vapor satellite picture shows the lead storm and the stronger storm system. There is a dry slot surging across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas this morning as the storm spins and closes off near the Nebraska/Kansas border early today. The second system can be seen in the  upper left corner of this picture.  Somehow this storm went by Kansas City with many spots getting just a few drops of rain.  KCI Airport had 0.o1″ around 7 AM this morning and that was the grand total for this lead storm system.  A much wetter looking storm is approaching, however, so hang on we aren’t done yet.

Kansas City rainfall the last two LRC seasons:

This lead storm is tracking into Iowa and Nebraska this morning. It will take most of the severe weather risk up to the north today:

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:

As you can see above, the Storm Prediction Center already has a day 2 moderate risk, which is rare. This could be upgraded to a high risk if it really seems to be coming together tomorrow.  There are still a few big questions concerning Thursday into Fridays set up. Notice how Kansas City seems to avoid most of these big set ups.  I am still concerned about the set up for Friday closer to Kansas City. That day 3 set up could be impacted significantly by what happens late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Here is today’s tornado climatology for May 17:

We will analyze the Thursday-Friday-Saturday set ups in our next blog. Let’s see what happens today.  Thank you for participating in this weather experience!

Gary

 

Severe Weather Risks This Week

Good morning,

Severe Weather Time-Line:

  • Daylight Hours Today:  The severe weather risk will be waiting on whether or not the cap will break before sunset.  If the cap breaks it will likely do so out near Dodge City, KS, and this would leave eastern Kansas dry for the Yankees/Royals game. The severe weather risk during the daylight hours would be way out west.
  • Tonight: The best chance of any severe thunderstorms would most likely  be near the Nebraska border lifting northeast into western Iowa. Kansas City would stay dry most of the night.
  • Wednesday:  The lead storm lifts northeast into Nebraska. Once this passes, there will be sinking air and this would end any severe weather risk over Kansas and Missouri by mid-afternoon. We have to monitor the morning thunderstorms closely for some severe weather as it moves by.
  • Wednesday night and Thursday: It will be the calm before the main storm. We have to monitor this main storm for an explosion of thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and central Kansas Thursday night, and then the risk shifts east on Friday.
  • Friday into early Saturday: This is still a bit too far out to analyze. The risk may be higher during this time frame, but there are still too many uncertainties to narrow it down.

Severe weather risks are challenging the next few days. There will be a strong cap in place today. When and where will it break? Will it break is even a good question!  This model that I showed last night has the cap broken by 7 PM over central and western Kansas. I doubt it and I will believe it when I see it happening. I think it could take until 7 PM before it shows signs of breaking and the most likely location will be northeast of the surface low. Take a look at where the surface low is forecast to be this evening, near the Colorado/Kansas border.

Today’s SPC outlook:

The SPC has placed the strongest tornado risk out over southwestern Kansas and into western Oklahoma. If the cap does break earlier, then this location is one of the favored spots. Again, will that cap break?

The storm causing todays risk is a strong wave of energy moving across the southwestern United States today. The timing of this strong wave is critical and the energy from this system begins arriving over that higher tornado risk around sunset tonight. If it comes in just a bit earlier the cap could break earlier and then that tornado risk would materialize. I still favor an area farther north, again just northeast of the surface low. Where will that low form? This is something storm chasers should be paying close attention to today.

8 PM HRRR:

Here is the HRRR that just came out as I was writing the blog this morning.  For the Yankees/Royals game as you can see it would be dry for the entire game even with this solution.  The lead thunderstorms would be near Salina, KS at 8 PM, but these are suspect as well. The only way they will be there is if the cap breaks around 3 or 4 PM farther west and I doubt it will. There is a chance that it will break early, but the chance is low.  The more likely area for storm chasers to be located, once again, is northeast of that surface low near the Colorado/KS border, and more likely near southwestern Nebraska. Notice how there is nothing in that enhanced tornado area at this 8 PM hour around the time the sun is setting. It does set a bit later out there.

This storm the rips up across Kansas early Wednesday.  LRC UPDATE: This storm is so directly related to LRC Cycle 2 in January, in fact it is incredible how this system, the lead system and the one on January 20th are so similar. I will try to show this in tomorrows blog. The next HRRR just came out while I have been continuing to type, and those same suspect thunderstorms were a full county farther west. Again, they are suspect anyway.

Wednesday is fascinating as well. This system rips by and the risk of severe weather will shift north as we wait for reorganization to the southwest.

We will then concentrate on the Thursday night into Friday set ups.  It is drying out. We need the rain, but I would rather have it come more gentle than with these severe weather risks.  Have a great day. We will be going in-depth on 41 Action News tonight.

Gary