Tonight I am expecting rain to move into the area while many of us sleep. There could be a few hit & miss showers overnight along with some drizzle. Temperatures will stay in the 50s so there is no threat of any frozen precipitation. At least, not tonight.
It’s looking to me like the heavier rain will stay just off to the East of KC on Sunday, but there could be one or two pockets of moderate rainfall that pass over us. As for amounts, I’m thinking we’ll see a range of 1/4 of an inch to about a full inch by the end of the day Sunday. Forecast models are not quite in agreement on how much rain will fall. The latest NAM & RPM are depicting higher amounts, while the 18z run of the GFS comes in much drier.
By 6pm Sunday, NAM suggests around a quarter of an inch in Kansas City. Meanwhile, just to the South & East, amounts around 1″.
The RPM is aggressive with heavy rain amounts in Kansas City, suggesting 3/4 to an inch in the city by 6p Sunday.
The GFS is not too giving with the rainfall, as it claims we’re lucky to even get a 1/4 of an inch. It is worth noting the GFS does pick up on higher rain amounts to the East and North.
The other story for Sunday will be falling temperatures. I expect us to start out in the middle 50s, then by about 4:00pm, cold air will push in and drop our temperatures into the 40s. We will need to watch and see if the true cold air (below freezing) can catch up to the moisture. I think it will do so Sunday night, once the precip is in Eastern Missouri. When this happens, there will be a little wintry mix to light snow in Eastern Missouri. But again, we’ll need to monitor this. Should the cold air catch up to that precip early, the mix and light snow will develop back to the West in Central Missouri. Obviously, I’ll have a better handle on this tomorrow afternoon. At this time, I do not see a threat for frozen precipitation in Kansas City this weekend. Snow-lovers will have to continue to wait.
Looking ahead to the holiday, we will have another shot of cold air knocking on the door. The forecast high for Thanksgiving will depend on which forecast model you believe in. As of this afternoon, the Euro model says a cold front will just pass through the area on turkey day.
If you are a fan of the “numbers”, the Euro says our high on Thursday is 30°. The GFS says 45°. That’s a bit of the spread! Right now, I’m going to lean toward the Euro and put our highs in the middle 30s. As always, that is heavily subject to change depending on the placement and timing of the next cold front.
For now, we will focus on the rain for Sunday (free car wash) and that next shot of cooler air for Monday, as highs return to the upper 30s.