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A Freeze Is Likely Within Ten Days

Good morning bloggers,

The World Series Begins Tuesday In Los Angeles

  • 104 degrees today
  • 103 degrees Tuesday
  • 100 degrees Wednesday

How incredible is this? Record breaking heat out west as this pattern continues to set up for the season.

Weather Discussion:

We hope everyone had a great weekend. The weather pattern continues to set up for the winter. The LRC will be set in around four to five weeks and we are still near the beginning, now around 2 1/2 weeks into the new pattern.  We have around 3 to 4 more weeks of this first cycle that we have not seen or experienced yet. For those of you following the computer models from day to day, then you know how different it looks today from even yesterday. The models are all over the place.  The snow is no longer showing up and I haven’t spent even a few seconds analyzing or thinking about this early snow since it didn’t seem to fit to me.  Take a look at the latest GFS precipitation forecast for the next ten days:

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This has not been a good trend for California.  This has been somewhat interesting for Kansas City, however. We have had some pretty heavy precipitation events during the past two weekends, but these missed other parts of Kansas.

2This map on the left shows the 240 hour, or ten day, forecast of the 500 mb flow. There is a rather substantial trough in the east. Let’s be careful about jumping to conclusions over these three to seven day stretches. If you have been following the LRC for the past few years, then you likely know that it is a long cycle. Last year cycled on an average of around 59 days. So, it is 59 days worth of pattern to analyze, not just one storm, one week.  Look at what happens just a few days later.

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This map on the right shows how the eastern trough lifted out and was replaced by a western trough just two days later.  Again, I stress patience as we analyze this pattern.  There are many factors to consider for the winter forecast and for the pattern that we will be experiencing from now through next September.  The first three weeks have featured troughs swinging into the Rocky Mountains, intensifying out over the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys, and then lifting out over the northeast and weakening. And, now we are going into a phase of eastern troughs for a few days. Let’s see how long this lasts, and let’s see what happens next. We are watching the evolution of this years LRC.

A Likely Freeze Within 10 Days:

These next three maps show the low temperature forecast for Friday, Saturday, and a week from Wednesday:

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With this eastern trough swinging through during these next ten days, the potential for a freeze is pretty high near KC. Let’s see how this looks as we move through this week.  Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the the LRC.  Go to Weather2020 and click on the blog over there to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

Ton of Rain and Two Cold Fronts

Good Sunday bloggers,

The weather played out pretty much as we expected with a significant rain event without much severe weather.  Let’s look back at this heavy rainfall event and look ahead to two cold fronts and a changing pattern.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall totals from the last 24 hours with the severe weather reports on top of the rainfall estimates. There were five tornado reports in southwest Oklahoma with most reports being wind and hail.  Eastern Kansas and western Missouri had very few severe weather reports, but there was quite a bit of rain.

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Here are some radar estimated rainfall totals. Since these are estimates, your rain gauge may read different.

Rainfall from around Topeka, KS to Maryvile, MO to Bethany, MO was about 1″ to 2.25″.

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The heaviest rain occurred from southeast of Emporia, KS to Lawrence, KS to Platte county.  Rainfall amounts ranged from 2.50″ to 5″  in this band.  This is incredible when you realize that the entire month of October averages 3.16″.

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Here is a closer version of the heavier rainfall totals.  We were able to find a 5.50″ southeast of Lawrence, KS and a 4.90″ near Leavenworth, KS. Note, the map above has 3.20″ north of downtown KC, while the map below has 2″.  Well, look close and the 2″ amount is much closer to downtown, while the one above is farther north.

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Now let’s turn our attention to the week ahead and two cold fronts, one of which looks pretty strong.

SUNDAY: The sky will clear from west to east allowing temperatures to rise to the low and mid 60s.  It will be warmer to the west due to the sun being out longer.

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MONDAY: Cold front #1 of the week moves through during the day.  There will be no rain, but there will be an increase in the wind during the afternoon with highs in the 60s.

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TUESDAY:  A storm system will form in the Great Lakes and we will see scattered clouds, quite a bit of wind and highs in the low to mid 50s after lows in the 40s.  Yes, there may be a few snowflakes in eastern Iowa and Wisconsin.

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Here is the upper level flow for the next seven days and this will take us to cold front #2.

The flow today shows the wet Saturday system moving across Arkansas as a new trough drops southeast towards the Midwest.

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TUESDAY: There will be an upper low over the Great Lakes and an upper high on the west coast.  This means no rain for California with windy and cool weather in the middle of the USA and a wet storm system in the eastern USA and Great Lakes.

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FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A second, deeper trough will drop in to the Great Lakes/Midwest.  As is, this means a windy and colder end of the week and weekend for our area.  The chance of our first freeze is high and we could see a snowflake as a snowstorm occurs in the upper Midwest. The position of the trough is still a bit uncertain as it could form farther west.  If this happens we could have a storm with the cold or before the cold as opposed to just clouds and wind.

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The average first freeze dates in KC is October 11-20, so we would be about 1-2 weeks late on the timing of the first freeze if this plays out as we are depicting.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

100% Chance of Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

A cold front and storm system are heading east out of the Rockies and these will arrive in our region this evening, interacting with warmth and humidity in place and the result will be rain and thunderstorms, some very heavy and possibly severe. So, lets go through this active day of weather.

There is a slight risk of severe weather with damaging winds the main threat.  The threat is a bit less than last weekend when we had damaging winds north of the river.  Now, that said, we have to keep a close eye on things.  There is an enhanced slight risk of severe weather in southeast Kansas and much of Oklahoma to north Texas where it will be warmer.

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NOON SATURDAY:It will be mostly dry, mostly cloudy and windy with temperatures around 70°. South winds will gust 30-40 mph.

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5 PM SATURDAY: Thunderstorms will be rapidly forming and increasing from northwest Missouri around Maryville, MO to Topeka and Wichita. KC will be windy and mild with a few showers and thunderstorms moving by.

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8 PM SATURDAY: The rain and thunderstorms will cover a large area along and west of I-35.  There will be very heavy downpours and possibly some damaging wind gusts.  The severe threat appears a bit lower than last Saturday night, but we must watch this closely.  The heavy rain and minor flooding threat is much higher.  Temperatures will range from the 70s southeast to 50s northwest as this average October cold front moves through the region.

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MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT: The large band of rain and thunderstorms will be shifting east as temperatures drop in to the 50s.

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8 AM SUNDAY: The band of rain will be off to the east in a much weakened state as temperatures drop to around 50°. The wind will be from the west and northwest at 5-15 mph.

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4 PM SUNDAY: It will be a very nice afternoon with highs in the 60s, a 5-15 mph wind from the west and northwest and abundant sunshine.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: When you look at these forecast totals for tonight keep in mind that the whole month of October in KC averages 3.16″ of rain. Rainfall around the region will range from around 1″ to 2.50″.  If you look closely there is a higher bulls eye in the KC area.

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RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSER IN TO KC: There will be likely be a 2.50″ to 3.15″ rainfall bulls eye.  This data has the heaviest from Lawrence to Leavenworth to Camden Point. This bulls eye may still shift east or west by 20-40 miles. Needless to say, we are in for a stormy Saturday night and watch for minor flooding. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.” Six inches of flowing water can wash away a car or SUV.

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Keep and eye to the sky today and tonight.  The weather looks great Sunday into much of next week with a possible strong cold front arriving at the end of the week.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff

Stormy Saturday Evening Forecast

Good Friday morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Increasing clouds, wind, and humidity. South winds 15-20 mph.  High:  77°
  • Tonight:  A slight chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm between midnight and 6 AM.  Low:  64°
  • Saturday morning:  The Kansas City Marathon starts early Saturday and there is just a 10% chance of rain. It will be partly cloudy and windy.  South winds 10-20 mph.
  • Saturday afternoon and night:  The chance of rain increases to 50% by 5 PM.  The Rain chance then increases to 100% by 9 PM.  Thunderstorms are likely. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with the wind shifting to the west and northwest.  High:  77°
  • Sunday:  Rain ending by 7 AM.  The clouds will move out, and then it will be dry for the Hollywood 400.  High:  68°

Weather Summary:

A storm system is approaching aloft as you can see below. This is a trough that is moving inland over the western states now and it will head east over the plains states by Saturday afternoon:

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The energy from this storm will begin splitting Saturday. A second system will be diving south through the northern plains early next week with a cold front strengthening and moving across the plains by mid-week.  The weather pattern continues to set up for the season and we will learn a lot more in the next two weeks. We will worry about the next two weeks and the overall weather pattern later. For now, let’s take a look at the surface set up for Saturday:

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There is a risk of severe weather on Saturday:

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The enhanced slight risk is showing on this probabilistic outlook from the SPC in the red and hatched areas. This is the area storm chasers are most likely going to be heading towards tomorrow.  Kansas City is in a slight risk. Last week when we had severe weather it warmed up to 85 degrees. It will not be as unstable in this set up.  Wide spread thunderstorms are likely late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with the main risk being damaging winds and some large hail. The best chance of a tornado or two will be on that enhanced risk area. Last weekend there were no tornadoes at all despite strong conversation from the SPC in that direction. They are only hinting at a chance of a couple of tornadoes in this weekends set up.  An interesting take away from this conversation is that this is the second thunderstorm event in as many weekends. Hmmmmmmm!

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go over to Weather2020, click on the blog, and join in the conversation.

Gary

A Storm Comes Into The West & Takes Aim On KC

Good morning bloggers,

The Kansas City Chiefs are out west near the fire ravaged Napa Valley.  Just north of Oakland is where this fire disaster that has claimed 42 lives is beginning to get under control.  Some rain would help, and take a look at the forecast for midnight after the Chiefs vs. Raiders game will be long over:

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This storm coming into the west will begin producing some snow around Lake Tahoe, and it has been completely dry this month until this system moves in tonight.

12z & 18z GFS rainfall forecast totals from Wednesday:

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The map above shows the rainfall forecast from yesterday mornings GFS model, and this one below is from the 1 PM model run (18z)):

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The axis of the heavy rain forecast shifted north and west. Now, did this trend continue?  The European Model has not had nearly as much rain, until now:

Screen Shot 2017-10-19 at 6.54.34 AM

So, now we have some consistence in the rainfall forecast, and look at the wet conditions across the Pacific northwest, and it does dip down a bit into California.

1The storm system that will be responsible is coming into the west coast tonight.  This energy will then carve out a trough as it approaches the plains states. And, then look at all of that energy coming across the Pacific Ocean. This is becoming an increasing factor for next week with the models all over the place on what is forecast to happen next.  This map is showing the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up as described a few days ago. This level of the atmosphere shows the cycling weather pattern the best.  The energy coming into North American next week is forecast to develop a rather deep trough in the east, but then it is also forecast to lift out fairly rapidly, and then get replaced by something like this next map below:

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This map shows a very deep trough just west of Kansas City on Halloween.  This is quite fascinating to watch our weather pattern evolve. The massive change in the pattern happened two weeks ago, and now we are experiencing the evolution of the pattern that we will be experiencing during the next year. This deeper trough over the plains has already shown signs that it may very well be a big feature this year in these first two weeks. I will attempt making a video and posting it later to showcase how this may “fit” this new and unique pattern.  This would be “very good” for us weather enthusiasts that live near Kansas City. 5

Today will be another great day in Kansas City. Let’s track the models today and we can continue this discussion in the comments section.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day and sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern (LRC).  Go to the blog at Weather2020 and join in the conversation.

Gary

A Quiet Weather Picture Nationwide

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern over most of the United States is quite calm. There is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the Arctic coast of northern Alaska, but other than that it is really a tranquil day:

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.41.49 AM

The largest advisory on today’s weather map is the Red Flag Advisory for the northern plains where it has been dry and quite warm this week for this time of the year.  The next impacting storm will be coming into the west coast Thursday and this will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to Kansas City by Saturday.  We will look deeper into this storm system in tomorrows blog and on 41 Action News tonight.

The influences on the winter forecast:

Puzzle-2

  • The LRC is the center piece of the cycling pattern.  There are other influences that will help shape this big atmospheric puzzle.
  • The Arctic Oscillation is one big piece to consider (AO)
  • The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one big piece to track
  • La Niña is developing, but it has not been established yet
  • There are other wild cards to consider

The AO and NAO:

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.32.22 AM

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.32.38 AM

Both the NAO and AO are forecast to dip negative during the next seven to ten days.  This is after the early part of this weather pattern had AO and NAO indexes in the positive.  When these indexes go deeper into the negative there is an increased chance of blocking and an increased chance of cold blasts developing over North America. Let’s follow these closely in the next few days.

La Niña:

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 8.34.13 AM

The phase of ENSO just took a big dip in the past week after it appeared that the tropical Pacific waters were warming a bit. The forecast from the CFSv2 forecast is for the cooling to continue and a La Niña to develop during the winter months.

The La Niña developments have my attention the most at the moment, but just like last winter when a weak La Niña started forming, the cycling pattern was only influenced by this phenomenon. The bigger piece of the puzzle is the LRC.  I saw a few more winter forecasts in the past two weeks. I have probably seen dozens of them now.  These forecasts are not considering the biggest piece of the puzzle. Any forecast that comes out before now may be able to make a very broad forecast for this winter with very little chance of being accurate, but if they do not consider the biggest piece of the puzzle how can they have any credibility.  This is how I look at it. We are still less than two weeks into this years cycling pattern. We are about to experience around 30 to 40 more days of this pattern that have not happened yet, so hang on for the ride. We will learn so much more in the next 30 days.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go to Weather2020.com and join in the blog conversation over there. I will likely be doing a Facebook Live tonight to discuss the developing weather pattern.

Gary Lezak

 

Gary

The Evolving 2017-2018 Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Nearly Perfect. Sunny with light winds and a high of 71°
  • Tonight:  Clear and refreshing. Low:  49°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny and nearly perfect again. High:  73°

The weather pattern is cycling and regularly, but at this time of the year something incredible is happening right before our eyes. The weather pattern that we experienced last year got wiped out by the end of the first week of October and we have now been experiencing the very beginning of the 2017-2018 pattern since around October 6th or 7th.  The new LRC is just now setting up and it continues to evolve for another few weeks. We must continue to be patient before we make too many conclusions. Last year we had a 56 to 61 day cycle centered on 58.5 days. The year before that it was 47 – 52 days, centered on 49.5 days. The cycle length is just one of the three main aspects of the LRC.  The other two are that a unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 30th, and long-term long wave troughs and ridges become established. These features are where storm systems reach their peak strength and where storm systems reach their weakest strength most often.  These features are just beginning to show up and I do not know where they are yet, no one can tell this early if we use the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle, the LRC.  How many of you have jumped to conclusions by looking at the error ridden computer models?

1This first map shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up. The 500 mb level just happens to be around half way up through the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere is 0 mb because there is no weight above that level. The surface pressure is closer to 1,000 mb, with the average surface pressure being 1013.25 mb (29.92″).  So, 500 mb is literally half way through the atmosphere in weight, and this happens to be located close to 18,000 feet above us or in the troposphere where the weather we experience here on earth happens.

This map shows the pattern developing right now.  The flow is fairly flat. Where the flow buckles next is rather important. But, also keep in mind we are already ten days into this pattern and in this very early stage we already have experienced some bucking near Missouri. Look at what is forecast to happen next:

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By 7 PM Sunday, or 00z Sunday, a trough is again forecast to intensify as it approaches the Missouri River Valley.  This will make it 15 full days of the pattern where this is where the flow intensified. This is an important factor. Hopefully you are still with me here.  Take a look at what happens next:

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The strongest storm of this early season is forecast to form over the Great Lakes at the 500 mb level by around one week from now.  This buckling of the flow is once again on the models. Let’s see what happens before we jump to any conclusions.  A big ridge forms out west.

The first huge difference from last year:

Last year on this date California was getting blasted by a very wet series of storm systems. This year it is completely dry out there so far, and this next storm will just provide a glancing blow to the far northern part of California leaving the fire devastated areas dry again. This is not a good development for California.

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The first trough swinging by this weekend produces this surface set up for Saturday night. And, then look:

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The big buckling of the flow finally produced this over the east. It is still odd, in some respects as this model doesn’t show a major storm there, which could be a factor, but I just won’t be able to put my LRC finger on it until we get into next week.

So, I recommend patience, patience, patience. Once we know the pattern, we will be able to know when the computer models are right, and when they are likely wrong.  Right now we are just finding out. There are other factors to consider and we will go over these tomorrow.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing and participating in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern.

Gary

 

Gary

Great Fall Weather then Changes

Good Monday bloggers,

The weather has calmed down and we are in for some great fall weather through Friday.  There is a tremendous amount of jet stream energy racing across the Pacific Ocean and this is a sign of some major pattern changes as the new cycling pattern evolves.

Let’s go through the nice weather, then the changes.

TONIGHT: Lows will be in the 40s, about 10 degrees warmer than Monday morning. This is right about where we should be for this time of year.

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TUESDAY: This will be a terrific Tuesday with near perfect temperatures in the low 70s and a south breeze at 5-15 mph.

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WEDNESDAY: There is very little change in the weather, just a few degrees warmer, which means a wonderful Wednesday.  A cold front to the west will fall apart as it moves east. The wind will be from the south to southwest at 10-25 mph, so a bit more of a breeze than Tuesday.

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This is a satellite image of the Pacific Ocean Monday afternoon. You can see the stream of clouds from Japan to Canada indicating a strong west to east jet stream.  Some of this energy will become a trough near the west coast by Thursday.  This trough will then move into the Plains and Midwest this weekend, changing our weather.  The jet stream will remain strong into the weekend and next week.  This will lead to a major pattern change in about 10 days and this will be a big player in the 2018-19 LRC.

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This is the upper level flow for Friday and you can see a trough in the western USA with a big ridge in the eastern USA.  This means we will see the dry and warm weather east of the Rockies through Friday and then the trough will move east increasing rain chances.  There is uncertainty in the pattern after Saturday as the system may break into two pieces.  One will race east across the Great Lakes and fall apart.  The second piece may form a closed low in the southern Plains.  If this happens, clouds and rain may persist south of I-70 Sunday and Monday.

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The end of week storm system will bring some rain to northern California, but the trend is towards much less amounts and coverage.  I guess a little is better than nothing.

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As the storm system crosses the Rockies it will interact with Gulf of Mexico moisture and the rain coverage and amounts will increase and heavy rain is possible this weekend from eastern Oklahoma to eastern Kansas to Iowa and western Wisconsin. We will be updating this and all of the changes in the coming days this week.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

There Was Not One Tornado In The United States Yesterday

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

DSCN4563I snapped this picture yesterday as the storm was rolling into the south side of the KC metro area. This thunderstorm ended up bowing out and producing a 65 mph wind near Greenwood, MO around 30 minutes from this moment. You can see Sunny The Weather Dog ready to come back inside as the wind and rain had just started.  Farther north, there was a severe thunderstorm that created 65 mph winds over north Kansas City leading to some pretty big trees getting knocked down. This thunderstorm produced over 2″ of rain as it moved across the north side of the KC metro area.

There were strongly worded discussions that came out yesterday suggesting the tornado risk being rather significant. This system certainly had the strength in the upper levels and some conditions at the lower levels that raised these concerns, but something was always a bit off yesterday and in the end there was not even one tornado reported over the entire region.  The surface low ended up over Iowa, as it was supposed to be, and the trailing cold front was northwest of the area of thunderstorms. There was a tropical influence with a plume of moisture coming in from Mexico and the Gulf of California. This plume of moisture helped induce showers and thunderstorms most of the day over northeastern Kansas and this likely affected the instability just enough to keep these thunderstorms from becoming discreet cells.

Here are the severe weather reports from Saturday:

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And, here is one of the trees knocked down:

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This is what a 65 mph wind is capable of doing. There were a few other big trees knocked down. Wow!

The weather pattern continues to evolve and the new cycling pattern as described by the LRC is beginning to show up. The key word is “beginning”. So, I once again am asking everyone to be patient and let’s wait and see how this evolves in the next three to four weeks. We just must wait another few weeks as the pattern is still setting up. The early evidence over the past 10 days has been fascinating.

The weather should become quite nice for the Steelers/Chiefs game this afternoon. GO CHIEFS and have a great Sunday everyone. Go to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.

Gary

Active Saturday Weather

4:34 PM Update:

Screen Shot 2017-10-14 at 4.30.24 PM

This is really fascinating. The thunderstorms have been north of a weakening warm front that is just about dissipated, and southeast of the advancing cold front. When the cold front catches up and passes through the thunderstorms, then they will likely  intensify. The main risks are some hail and damaging winds.  These will be out of the KC viewing area by 11 PM.  Let’s see how this evolves, but no supercells formed as of 4:34 PM.

Previous entry below:

Good Saturday bloggers,

You can have a second season of severe weather between the middle of September and the middle of October.  Well, today is one of those days as we have a warm and humid air mass in the area as a strong cold front and system move across the Plains this evening.  So, let’s go through this weekend.

Here is the severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center as of 8 AM.  This may change later based on how the day evolves.  This means how much cloud cover and rain will occur during the day as this will be key in to determining on how unstable the air mass becomes ahead of the cold front.  If there is more rain and clouds, then the severe threat drops.  If there is more sun, then we could have a severe weather problem this evening.

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SATURDAY 2 PM: Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lots of clouds.  There may be more showers and thunderstorms with the clouds than this model shows.  These temperatures are just barely warm enough to support severe weather.

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SATURDAY EVENING: The cold front will be pushing across the area with rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front.  How severe will these thunderstorms become?  Again, it depends on how warm it gets this afternoon and that depends on how much sunshine breaks out.  Rainfall amounts will range from around .25″ to 1.25″ whether we see severe weather or not.

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MIDNIGHT TONIGHT: The rain and thunderstorms will be moving quickly and in KC it will be dry, windy and much cooler with temperatures dropping towards the 40s.  The thunderstorms will be along I-44 and moving away very fast..

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SUNDAY MORNING: It will be clearing, windy and cold with wind chills in the 30s as lows drop to the low 40s.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny and much cooler with highs 55° to 60°.  The wind will be less from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  So, if you are headed to the Chiefs game, bring a jacket, as by the second half temperatures will be dropping to around 50°. The Sporting KC game begins at 6:30 PM.  So, it will be dry with a light breeze, but temperatures will be in the 40s, dress appropriately.

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Here is the Kansas City weather time line for today.  It will be mainly dry in KC through 11 am-Noon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon.  The main threat for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms occurs 5 PM to 10 PM.  The extent of the severe weather will be determined on how warm it gets this afternoon and that will be determined by the extent of the cloud cover and rain.  We lean with the more clouds and rain solution, but we have to watch this closely.

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After today it looks dry for 5-7 days with temperatures back to the 70s by Tuesday.

Have a great weekend and keep an eye to the sky.

Jeff Penner