Good Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning bloggers,
This storm system is spinning north across Kansas, which finally broke the ice on the long dry spell that was shattered apart yesterday with over two inches of rain in many spots. There is another system approaching us on Friday and I will be discussing that one over on the Weather2020 blog. This current storm has been fascinating, and for those of you who believe in the LRC, well, then you know that this storm will cycle back through and likely around the first week of 2016. Happy New Year will likely have a major winter storm developing near by. Another unique pattern is in progress. According to the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th, cycles regularly, and regional hot spots are identified where storm systems reach their peak strengths. The weather pattern is now set, but we still need two more weeks to analyze this first cycle. I will have the full winter forecast coming out in that first week of December when our Winter Forecast Special half hour show comes out. For now, let’s take a preliminary look:
Snow, rain, sleet, hail, thunder, lightning, drizzle, wind, and ice! We are forecasting a wild weather pattern ahead. I have been making winter forecasts on the air since the mid-1990s and we are using breakthrough technology known as the LRC. It is a new technique that we believe will be a great tool for weather forecasting in the future. Even though we have been using it for more than 20 years, it is still early in its development, but we are getting results. Using the LRC we have been making accurate weather forecasts down to a series of dates. In the past two years the forecasts have been even more accurate.
Recent Accurate Forecasts:
- Last winter we forecasted that Kansas City was likely not going to be in the right spot for storm systems, and we forecasted 17 inches of snow, below average snowfall. 14 inches fell, and we were almost always not quite in the right spot as most storm systems missed us.
- 30 to 60 days before Arctic Air Blasted in we predicted they would happen last winter in late December and again in mid to late Febraury
- Two years ago we forecasted 24 inches, and 26 inches fell.
So, how much are we forecasting this winter? I will let you know in just a minute.
There is organization to the chaos in the upper levels of the atmosphere. There is a complex atmospheric puzzle, and we are cracking the code. The LRC may indeed be the biggest piece, the center piece, but there are other factors that are weighed into our accuracy formula as we figure out this cycling pattern. One of these big factors is El Niño, the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
This El Niño may be the strongest ever recorded, and there are already some influences on this overall pattern. Just the tornadoes we had on November 16th in a very rare location for this time of year may be related to the warmer climate. And, it is likely a result of the near record warm tropical Pacific Ocean water. What does this mean for Kansas City, and the rest of the United States?
One thing I know for certain, every El Niño is different. Every year is unique, whether there is an El Niño or not. Last year, Boston had over 100 inches of snow as a result of the pattern we were in a year ago? Who will have the record winter events this year? We are currently identifying this pattern, and here is what we are forecasting at this preliminary stage. In two weeks I will be writing up a full winter forecast, but for now take a look.
We are forecasting near to above average temperatures across the entire nation. There will be two to three stretches of very cold air, however, and we are currently identifying which parts of the pattern will most likely be very cold. The jet stream is going to split at times, and the southern branch of the jet stream will likely blast into California with a few periods of very wet weather there, but there will also be longer dry periods to balance out that region to just above average on rain and snow. The biggest wet area is most likely from Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas east to the Mississippi River Valley where flooding rains are likely. There may be a few minor icing events, and conditions appear that they will become favorable for one major ice storm that will likely include parts of Kansas and Missouri.
One of the two main storm tracks is likely going to repeat many times this winter and into next spring. This will lead to excellent ski conditions in the Rocky mountains and out west. There are other parts of the pattern we will identify in the next two weeks.
For Kansas City, we are forecast above average temperatures this winter. Rainfall will also be above average with some flooding rains possible. It will be cold enough for one big ice storm, and five to ten snowstorms that will bring our total to 23” this season.
Our winter forecast special is on the first week of December. By then, we will have identified the rest of this winter’s pattern and I will write up an extensive winter forecast. Let us know if you have any questions.